Thursday, November 29, 2007
As we know prices have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 6.3%.
Do not trust Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
"The window of opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase is quickly slipping away, however I suspect most bubbleheads will miss it. I just hope they are on here a year from now explaining why they are still "waiting it out." The justifications will be interesting to hear." ( Comment at September 25, 2006 7:52 AM)
"S&P also reported that prices fell 1.7 percent from the previous quarter, the largest consecutive quarterly decline in the index's history. The S&P/Case-Schiller quarterly index tracks prices of existing single-family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier. "
"A separate index that covers 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 4.9 percent in September from a year earlier. A 10-area index decreased 5.5 percent from the previous year."
MarketWatch adds "Home prices fell in September in all 20 major cities covered by the Case-Shiller price index, even in cities that had been holding up, Standard & Poor's reported.
In the Washington, DC area the price index fell 6.5% from September 2006 . Prices continue to fall in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. In real dollars prices this is almost 10%. For more numbers go to Case Shiller S&P Index.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
“The markets are becoming aware that the decline in U.S. housing prices is not stopping. It is at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 50 years,” Greenspan told a financial audience in the Norwegian capital.
"He said the housing bubble had burst and the market was “a good deal away” from its selling climax — a point at which sellers ultimately lower their prices to match lower bids.He said central banks should concentrate on alleviating the economic fallout from burst asset bubbles because they had few methods to prevent them and “lean against the wind.”
“There doesn’t seem to me that there is very much evidence that we can do much about them,” said Greenspan, who oversaw Fed policy during the dot-com bubble and the start of the present housing bubble.
“Irrespective if we could identify them, we could not do much to defuse them,” he said of asset bubbles.Greenspan could have pulled a Volcker (raise interest rates tremendously) which would pop the housing bubble. Not that I would support that. In retrospect, Mr. Greenspan allowed interest rates to be too low, for too long.
In Las Vegas ,Toll Brothers is not reducing prices on its luxury housing units. It stubbornly clings on to very high prices:
These Toll Brother fools out in Las Vegas better get the widely circulated memo that deep price reductions in price are necessary to move new housing units.
And despite total traffic through models of between 500 and 600 people weekly, Toll Bros., a luxury builder that also hasn't marketed any discounts, had zero net sales in the week ended Nov. 11 and a negative net-sales rate of two homes in the week ended Oct. 14.
That means the company, whose homes are priced from $345,975 to more than $1 million, had two more cancellations in Las Vegas that it had sales.
Toll officials declined to discuss local sales volume, noting that they release regional data only quarterly. Spokeswoman Kira McCarron said sales of new homes and standing inventory "are consistent with current marketing conditions." (Las Vegas Review - Journal 11/25/07)
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
"Prices in the Los Angeles-Orange County metro area fell by 8.1% in September, sixth highest among the top 30 metro areas, the company reported. It was the eighth straight month that prices here have shown a year-over-year decline. The Inland Empire led the nation’s top 30 metro areas in price declines. Prices there fell 13.6% from September 2006.
"Seventeen states had price declines, LoanPerformance reported. Nevada had the nation’s second-highest price decline, with home prices falling 9.3%, followed by Florida (-8.2%) and Arizona (-7.4%). (Lasner on Real Estate Blog 11/19/07)"
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
2007 Realtor Conference in Las Vegas Website
Yun Loses His Marbles in Vegas (Housing Doom)
Oh, Yun is blaming the media "The media, meanwhile, played up problems in the market, Yun said. "They have a natural bias of wanting to sensationalize all the news items."
"And, while many markets remained healthy, he said: 'The local media, many are just very lazy. They just copy the national stories and put them in their local papers.' "Lawrence Yun Invterview
Monday, November 12, 2007
The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $435K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -5.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -25%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 7%
- Active Listings YoY: 0%
- Median Price: $265k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 0%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 2.8%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -32%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 47%
- Active Listings YoY: 17%
- Median Price: $393k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 5.6%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -2.5%
- Average Days on Market YoY: -4.6%
- Active Listings YoY: 0%
- Median Price: $302K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -10%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -55%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 82%
- Active Listings YoY: 59%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $415K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -4%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 2.1%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -36%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 27%
- Active Listings YoY: 15%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $414K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-1.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -18%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 5%
- Active Listings YoY: -1%
- Median Price: $487K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -12%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 52%
- Active Listings YoY: -13%
- Median Price: $287K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -13%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: - 34%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 40%
- Active Listings YoY: 15%
- Median Price: $425K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -7.6%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-2.9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 12%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in October compared to October 2006.
The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Far out suburbs and condos are especially vulnerable to large price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
The National Association of Realtors® today named Lawrence Yun chief economist and senior vice president of research. Yun has served at NAR since 2000, most recently as vice president and senior economist.
“Lawrence is a talented economist and an outstanding forecaster who has contributed greatly to NAR’s growth and prestige as the leading advocate for the housing industry,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “We are proud to have a man of Lawrence’s integrity and honor.
“He is a no-nonsense and level-headed analyst of the housing market who calls the data as he sees it, and has guided NAR with skill as chief spokesman for the past several months in a competitive real estate market. We have great faith and trust that Lawrence’s tenure will be a stellar one that will enhance NAR’s reputation as the most reliable and credible source of real estate research.”
Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster;' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 he predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. " As we know priced have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction.
- Foreclosure wave sweeps America (BBC News)
- New Low for Dollar Against Euro (AP News) Seems to be happening a lot lately?
- FLASH FLASH FLASH: Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt (HousingPanic)
- Long and Foster Getting Desperate? (Baltimore Housing Bubble)
Monday, November 05, 2007
This months edition of Fortune Magazine (November 12, 2007) had a great article on housing called How Low Can They Go? by Shawn Tully (no online link available yet). It combined extensive analysis of 54 metro housing markets with the combined work of Moody's Economy.com, Fortune Analysts, PPR, & NAR. The basis of the article was to provide a snapshot of what the future of housing will look like in 5 years from June 2007. They determined a correction value (sometimes positive) by comparing present day price to rent ratios with the average of the past 15 years. Based on the data from the article I created a correction calculator and analysis for all 54 metro areas. For more background on the article check out this post on it until the actual article become public on Fortune's Website or you can just go buy the current edition of the magazine. I've attached the file and also here is a link for a hosted file. I'm sure this will be of some use to you.
Best Regards and Happy Blogging,
Baltimore Housing Bubble
Friday, November 02, 2007
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