Wednesday, January 30, 2008

CountryWide CEO Mozilo's Lie

Courtesy: NYPost

Case Shiller Index Way Down; Washington, DC Area Down 7.8% YoY

Prices for housing units continue to decline in most major cities throughout the USA. Los Angelos Time reports that:


Home values in major U.S. cities continued to fall at a record pace in November, with Southern California posting some of the steepest declines in a national index released Tuesday.

Miami saw a 15.1% drop in November compared to a year earlier, the worst among 20 metropolitan areas in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller composite index. But an Diego was close behind with a 13.4% decline.

The November index of 10 metropolitan areas saw a year-over-year annual decline of 8.4%, the sharpest annual plunge since the index began in 1987. It was the second-straight record decline for the index, following a 6.7% drop in October


In the Washington, DC area the price index fell 7.8% compared with November 2006 . Prices continue to fall in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. In real dollars prices have fallen about 10% this past year.

For more numbers go to Case Shiller S&P Index. The prices declines in the metro area are accelerating with the Case Shiller S&P Index showing October 2007 prices declines 1.1%. For comparison purposes in November 2007 prices fell 1.8% (in that month alone). This housing bust is accelerating; expect further prices declines during the coming months in the Washington, DC area.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

BubbleSphere Roundup

Capitalism's Enemies Within (WashingtonPost)

NAR commends Ben 'let's cut rates fast' Benranke. Message to NAR: Housing prices will continue to fall despite Bernanke's cutting.

HousingPanic (HP) is planning a Housing Panic convention in Las Vegas. Will there be a debate between a Realtor who has just called the bottom and Keith the loud leader of HP?

Foreclosures up 353% in S.D. County in 2007 (San Diego Union-Tribune)

According to VirginiaMLS the number of available listings as of January 17 in Northern Virginia is 16,853 which is up 31% from one year ago. Meanwhile sales are way down from last year. Increase in supply, lower demand.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Housing Bubble Song

Housing Bubble Song



Nice song. Easy listening, unless you are a f*cked borrower!

Friday, January 18, 2008

Lawrence Yun Spouts More Nonsense in Denver

Lawrence Yun traveled to Denver and spouted more nonsense. The Denver Post reports that:


“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”
The subprime mortgage crises is NOT a thing of the past. It is still very much a part of the housing market as over 250 billions dollars of subprime mortgages reset in the next couple of years (see chart below). Yun is a subprime economist and has lost his credibility.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Your Turn: How Much Have Prices Fallen in the DC Area?

How Much Have Prices Fallen from Peak Price? (in nominal $s)

1) For the average single family detached housing unit in the outer suburbs (ex. Woodbridge, Manassas, Sterling, Frederick, Waldorf) ?

2) Condos in yuppie neighborhoods in DC (ex. Dupont Circle, Woodley Park, Capitol Hill) ?

3) Row houses in yuppie neighborhoods in DC (ex. Dupont Circle, Woodley Park, Capitol Hill, Lance's housing unit) ?


4) For the average single family detached housing unit in the inner suburbs (ex. Silver Spring, Bethesda, Arlington, Alexandria) ?

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

BubbleSphere Roundup

The NAR launches there recently created propaganda website Housing Market Facts with 'facts' and information why owning a housing unit is better then renting. These paid shills at the NAR are desperate to keep 'their' dollars. The NAR has lost its credibility. Don't trust this shilling douche bag of an organization. They have brought you the likes of David 'paid shill' Lereah and Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun.

Keith the super housing bubble blogger continues to pound at those responsible for this mess Federal Reserve, NAR, Speculators, etc.).

Phoenix Housing Market: 2007 Sales Were Below 2000 Level (Housing Doom)

They are all Double Digit Declines Now (TheMessThatGreenspanMade)

'Piece of Cake' Housing Downturn Exceeds 90s 'Depression' (SacramentoLanding)

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Washington - Baltimore , RE Sales Numbers. December 2007

The new monthly numbers for December 2007 are out from the MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems) the multiple listing service for the area. YoY = Year over Year, that is the comparison between December 2007 and December 2006. These numbers include all housing units ( not just single family residences but also condos and co-ops). These are for housing units listed on the MRIS's MLS (and thus do not include some foreclosures or private sales, or many new home sales).

The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.

Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
  • Median Price: $438K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: 1.4%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 13%
  • Active Listings YoY: 22%
Baltimore City Area (Anne Arundel, Baltimore City/County, Carroll, Harford, Howard (BALT AREA) )
  • Median Price: $260k
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -1.7%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: 1.3%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 37%
  • Active Listings YoY: 23%
Washington, DC (just the District of Columbia, no suburbs)
  • Median Price: $400k
  • Median Sales Price YoY: 3%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: 8.8%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -21%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 16%
  • Active Listings YoY: 4%
Prince George's County, MD
  • Median Price: $303K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -8.2%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: -3.1%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -56%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 79%
  • Active Listings YoY: 72%

Montgomery County, MD
  • Median Price: $426K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -2.3%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: 1.2%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -40%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 36%
  • Active Listings YoY: 32%

Loudoun County, VA
  • Median Price: $410K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -6.7%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: -8.0%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 3%
  • Active Listings YoY: 11%
Arlington County, VA
  • Median Price: $486K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -2.9&
  • Average Sales Price YoY: 4.3%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 2%
  • Active Listings YoY: 4%
Frederick County, MD
  • Median Price: $283K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -6%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: -5.7%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: - 26%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 54%
  • Active Listings YoY: 22%
Fairfax County, VA
  • Median Price: $430K
  • Median Sales Price YoY: -4.5%
  • Average Sales Price YoY: -.4%
  • Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
  • Average Days on Market YoY: 15%
  • Active Listings YoY: 28%
For more numbers on jurisdictions not mentioned here please go to MRIS Market Statistics.

These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in December compared to December 2006 by at least 20% . In most places the median sales price fell.

The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Prices continue to fall. Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality. For real estate, this spring's real estate season will not be a recovery time in the DC - Baltimore area. Housing busts usually last many, many years. It is far from over.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun

Yun is at it again, shilling irrational optimism to the media who seem only to happy to quote this discredited shill.

“‘The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,’ Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. ‘A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.’” (AP News)

Really? You have lost your credibility. Don't listen to this paid spinner as he has been wrong many times before. He is paid to spin optimistic mesages on behalf of the real estate industial complex (REIC).

Thursday, January 03, 2008

2009 Predictions

With 2009 just starting what are you predictions for this year?

Let me get started.

1) Housing markets continues to decline in most major metropolitan areas in the United States.

2) The recession continues at least through the end of the second quarter.

3) US Budget Deficit for 2009 is over 1.3 trillion dollars.