tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post113011127430106635..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Washington, DC Area UpdateDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130377282831598132005-10-26T21:41:00.000-04:002005-10-26T21:41:00.000-04:00DCBROKER,"the economy is DC is still quite strong"...DCBROKER,<BR/><BR/>"the economy is DC is still quite strong" <BR/><BR/>Yes<BR/><BR/>"and interests rates are benign."<BR/><BR/>They may be benign, but they are rising.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130272818121303782005-10-25T16:40:00.000-04:002005-10-25T16:40:00.000-04:00I'm in downtown Silver Spring, and there doesn't s...I'm in downtown Silver Spring, and there doesn't seem to a parcel of land bigger than maybe four parking spaces that isn't being turned into condos. Frankly, I hope all the predictions for a deep and painful shakedown are right....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130186801183932692005-10-24T16:46:00.000-04:002005-10-24T16:46:00.000-04:00dcbroker,"well we had an open house on sunday for ...dcbroker,<BR/><BR/>"well we had an open house on sunday for a property in columbia heights listed at 799k and had about 100 through."<BR/><BR/>Lets see how many are actually interested.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130177134523014912005-10-24T14:05:00.000-04:002005-10-24T14:05:00.000-04:00anon:thanks for the compliments. I will try and pu...anon:<BR/><BR/>thanks for the compliments. I will try and publish some information about how "how smart RE investors are diversifying or hedging against a RE bubble"Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130175307190996772005-10-24T13:35:00.000-04:002005-10-24T13:35:00.000-04:00I read your blog every day. Very informative and ...I read your blog every day. Very informative and entertaining.<BR/><BR/>I'd love to see more about how smart RE investors are diversifying or hedging against a RE bubble. I have property and over $70K cash on hand, and i'd love to learn more about how I can hedge against a housing crisis besides selling my rental property located near the MCI Center.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130162606347000082005-10-24T10:03:00.000-04:002005-10-24T10:03:00.000-04:00"Tentleytown could I find quiet streets not litter..."Tentleytown could I find quiet streets not littered with "For Sale" signs."<BR/><BR/>But I bet those streets had political signs for mayor. There are more of those then for sale signs.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130162127140792782005-10-24T09:55:00.000-04:002005-10-24T09:55:00.000-04:00I'm a runner (and an economist) in the 20009 zip (...I'm a runner (and an economist) in the 20009 zip (Adams Morgan) and have definitely noticed an uptick in the number of "For Sale" signs around here. During a recent run through Glover Park, my running partner and I amused ourselves by trying to detect a block <I>without</I> at least one house or condo for sale. Many had two or three for sale. Ditto Logan Circle, Woodley Park, East Dupont. Only on yesterday's run through Tentleytown could I find quiet streets not littered with "For Sale" signs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130161063387774802005-10-24T09:37:00.000-04:002005-10-24T09:37:00.000-04:00I would think the way this would work is as follow...I would think the way this would work is as follows.<BR/><BR/>The flippers can't sell at lower prices, since they bought at high prices and expect the sale to bring big income. But they can't hold out forever, either.<BR/><BR/>The longer-term owners are looking to cash out now. They can take a lower price, and will be the first to snap.<BR/><BR/>Next, the smart flippers, who realize it's better to get out with a loss than with a huge loss, will get out.<BR/><BR/>By that time, the psychology will have totally changed. Pressure will be on the sellers, and the other flippers will start to break as they can't hold their houses at a loss anymore.<BR/><BR/>This will take 3-4 years, at most. In the meantime, the Feds are going to slow spending and the jobs are going to start drying up. Crime will start to rise in some of these "rebounding" neighborhoods.<BR/><BR/>A couple years ago, when there was a machete attack, followed by a gang shooting in Herndon, I read an interview where a 5-year TH owner said she would leave if crime got much worse. <BR/><BR/>These newcomers have no loyalty to the area. I have seen people with a LOT of loyalty to the area forced to leave against their will because crime had gotten so bad (much worse than two incidents in a week). These newcomers will fly out much faster and much easier. Gentrifying an area doesn't always "work," and sometimes it's more complicated than just buying a house and putting in a new roof. Then, the bubble bursting could turn into a rout.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1130160169525188092005-10-24T09:22:00.000-04:002005-10-24T09:22:00.000-04:00I went for a drive on Georgia avenue Sunday mornin...I went for a drive on Georgia avenue Sunday morning, north from Silver Spring into Wheaton and back. We're talking 9:30 to 10:00 a.m.<BR/><BR/>Traffic like at rush hour (except that rush hour is like parking). Absolutely obscene. For me, this makes housing in the area worth even less. <BR/><BR/>But, I did see a house on Georgia Avenue itself (a six/seven lane, always-busy road) that had recently sold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com