tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post113833582019338981..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Speculator Exits Early at a LossDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138444790072184672006-01-28T05:39:00.000-05:002006-01-28T05:39:00.000-05:00Gotta have a reference or it looks made up.Gotta have a reference or it looks made up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138414218236480782006-01-27T21:10:00.000-05:002006-01-27T21:10:00.000-05:00I put down a 25K deposit on a half million dollar ...I put down a 25K deposit on a half million dollar house 3 years ago, which represented 5%, so 50K on 1 mil seems reasonable.<BR/><BR/>In our situation, we felt forced into closing. When we got the loan documents a week before closing the terms were much worse than we had anticipated. The lender was not up front with what he could get us in the form of a loan. We thought we were going to get a 30-year fixed and ended up with a 6-month LIBOR. (Ack). We were using the builder's lender, of course, as they won't give you nice incentives otherwise. <BR/><BR/>Thankfully for us we could sell at a profit a few years later, and the LIBOR was great from 2003-2005. (Not so good now!!) Selling was helpful for us because the costs of the loan were so much we ended up digging ourselves into a hole. We couldn't take on a lot of extra work as we had three kids under 6 years old and didn't have any grandparents or other reliable babysitters. So we sold and are now renting and are very happy to be free of the burden.<BR/><BR/>Since we have money in the bank now our hope is to buy some land and save up for a house. I don't want a big loan. By now I'm sick of lenders and credit of any kind. Although I've seen some decent offers from places like ING Direct that seem to offer low, basic closing costs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138396995251502042006-01-27T16:23:00.000-05:002006-01-27T16:23:00.000-05:00"But I have to agree with some other posters that ..."But I have to agree with some other posters that the lack of details (zip? how you came to know of it- first hand?) doesn't help this post."<BR/><BR/>I do not know the zip off hand but I could look it up. My source is highly reliable. [ do people really have a reason to doubt this story? ]Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138391544602510952006-01-27T14:52:00.000-05:002006-01-27T14:52:00.000-05:00David, I enjoy reading your blog- a gem of a blog ...David, I enjoy reading your blog- a gem of a blog in the DC Metro area. But I have to agree with some other posters that the lack of details (zip? how you came to know of it- first hand?) doesn't help this post. I like the credible aspects of your blog and hope you keep it up because I view this blog at least daily. Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138390971734047662006-01-27T14:42:00.000-05:002006-01-27T14:42:00.000-05:00I stand corrected about philosophy/logic classes. ...I stand corrected about philosophy/logic classes. <BR/><BR/>(Although in my experience, I'm not sure making everyone take such a class would be much help. Most people in my class were god-awful at it. Maybe you're right: starting in the first grade would help.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138389678462836192006-01-27T14:21:00.000-05:002006-01-27T14:21:00.000-05:00"If I remember correctly, when I took logic, it wa..."If I remember correctly, when I took logic, it was a 300 or 400 level course. Philosophy 101 is usually a general introduction course to philosophy as a whole."<BR/><BR/>At the university where I first took logic courses, freshmen had three options for their Intro to Philosophy course: ethics, metaphysics (I think -- no pun intended, by the way), or logic. The latter started with argument forms and validity, and wound up with symbolic logic. The department also offered a junior-level logic course that began with symbolic logic and moved on to the predicated calculus. To this day, no class I've ever taken before or since has been as generally valuable as that beginning logic course.<BR/><BR/>Since I thought I saw this dead horse twitch a little: Later on, when I returned to another university to (finally) finish an undergrad degree, the Computer Science department required all their prospective students (mainly freshmen and transfers) to take a 100-level discrete math course that covered (among other things) symbolic and quantifier logic. So there are various routes to studying logic. But it should really be first taught in first grade, and every year thereafter....<BR/>--sgloverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138389266078412482006-01-27T14:14:00.000-05:002006-01-27T14:14:00.000-05:00Jeez...I was thinking just the opposite: so obviou...Jeez...I was thinking just the opposite: so obviously true as to be trite.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138385947502921532006-01-27T13:19:00.000-05:002006-01-27T13:19:00.000-05:00"Jeez, I often suspect that half the world's probl..."Jeez, I often suspect that half the world's problems would vanish if everybody enrolled in Philosophy 101, Introduction to Logic."<BR/><BR/>If I remember correctly, when I took logic, it was a 300 or 400 level course. Philosophy 101 is usually a general introduction course to philosophy as a whole. <BR/><BR/>At any rate:<BR/><BR/>1) I stand by every word in my original post, logicially speaking. <BR/><BR/>2) I wasn't responding to David's post exactly, I was providing some more explanation as to why some people in the comments section wanted more information. <BR/><BR/>2) I also think your post is entirely correct (except for the last part about philosophy courses). You seem to be saying, as an anecdote, it doesn't matter whether David's post is verifable or not. (ie. the post, by its very nature, doesn't have to be verifiable.) If that's true, I guess I would say the post has very limited value. The post would have much more value--be a better post--if there were some verifiable information in it, since I don't know David (although I am sure he is a very nice guy) and I don't know his motivations. (Indeed, it is certainly theoretically possible that either David, or the person who told him this story, invented it for their own reasons.) I am simply saying that, as a generally skeptical reader, I would like a way to verify this information. Otherwise, it just becomes more noise in the real estate world. I guess you are saying that's all that it is. <BR/><BR/>3) I certainly recognize that, since it is David's blog, he is absolutely free to post anything he wants--any story he heard, verifiable or not. <BR/><BR/>4) I like this blog. And I suspect that the anecdote is true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138378466868285452006-01-27T11:14:00.000-05:002006-01-27T11:14:00.000-05:00"The problem is, when someone loses 50K, they keep..."The problem is, when someone loses 50K, they keep their mouth shut. But when someone makes a paper 50K, he shouts it to the rooftops (often neglecting to discuss the renovation and closing costs)."<BR/><BR/>Exactly. Astute post.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138378080536224442006-01-27T11:08:00.000-05:002006-01-27T11:08:00.000-05:00The problem is, when someone loses 50K, they keep ...The problem is, when someone loses 50K, they keep their mouth shut. But when someone makes a paper 50K, he shouts it to the rooftops (often neglecting to discuss the renovation and closing costs).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138377864581286872006-01-27T11:04:00.000-05:002006-01-27T11:04:00.000-05:00Losing 50K just like that - what percentage of Ame...Losing 50K just like that - what percentage of Americans can afford that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138376478189166452006-01-27T10:41:00.000-05:002006-01-27T10:41:00.000-05:00"Without more facts (ie. specific houses or at lea..."Without more facts (ie. specific houses or at least streets, possibly names of the parties involved) there is no way to verify that this is true. "<BR/><BR/>It's called an anecdote. I don't believe the author said, "This invariably happens in DC area real estate transactions". Instead, the implication is, "Here's an example of the kind of thing I've been talking about". It's up to the audience to decide how relevant or representative it really is. As it happens, this particular anecdote doesn't seem out of step with a host of other indicators, many of which we can see for ourselves in classified ads and on the streets of our neighborhoods.<BR/><BR/>Jeez, I often suspect that half the world's problems would vanish if everybody enrolled in Philosophy 101, Introduction to Logic.<BR/><BR/>--sgloverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138375341715646932006-01-27T10:22:00.000-05:002006-01-27T10:22:00.000-05:00Without more facts (ie. specific houses or at leas...Without more facts (ie. specific houses or at least streets, possibly names of the parties involved) there is no way to verify that this is true. <BR/><BR/>Otherwise, it becomes just more of the rumor and speculation that surrounds the market right now (ie. are house prices declining? or holding steady? Is the bubble bursting? or just no longer increasing?) And it is obviously true that different people can have different motivations for starting/spreading rumours (rumors that serve the teller's interests). I have no idea whether this post is true or not; and my point is that I have no way of finding out. <BR/><BR/>As to the market, I certainly know of concrete examples where prices were lowered from the asking price, but then the property sold. So what does that mean?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138373441473000692006-01-27T09:50:00.000-05:002006-01-27T09:50:00.000-05:00This is a factual example. What other details do ...This is a factual example. What other details do you want?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138365923923767122006-01-27T07:45:00.000-05:002006-01-27T07:45:00.000-05:00"this is so vague and lacking of hard facts. i'm c..."this is so vague and lacking of hard facts. i'm curious why you put a post up like this."<BR/><BR/>What sort of hard facts are you looking for?<BR/>------------------------------<BR/><BR/>It was posted because it is just one example of what is increasingly happening to speculators in the bubble markest, that is they are losing large sums of money.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138361793989228002006-01-27T06:36:00.000-05:002006-01-27T06:36:00.000-05:00Ouch. 2006 may be a long year for sellers. If in...Ouch. 2006 may be a long year for sellers. If investors leave the market, and sellers stubbornly stick to 5% discounts off last year's prices, there won't be too many sales.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138354623089225402006-01-27T04:37:00.000-05:002006-01-27T04:37:00.000-05:00this is so vague and lacking of hard facts. i'm c...this is so vague and lacking of hard facts. i'm curious why you put a post up like this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com