tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post113851751739624366..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Update II: 716 5th Street ,NE - Reduced AgainDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138809496172576292006-02-01T10:58:00.000-05:002006-02-01T10:58:00.000-05:00The price reductions reflect poorly on the house. ...The price reductions reflect poorly on the house. If I were to bid on this house, hopefully never because of the crime in the area, I would offer much less than the asking price.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138621376819092572006-01-30T06:42:00.000-05:002006-01-30T06:42:00.000-05:00Looking for a wipeout down to 97 prices may be too...Looking for a wipeout down to 97 prices may be too much. But as a renter in the DC area, I can assure you that rents in this area have gone up at a very reasonable rate the last 6 years. There has been some increase due to increased occupancy, which probably reflects the increased jobs in the DC area. But nothing like the increase in house prices.<BR/><BR/>What a lot of these people new to the DC area don't realize is that <BR/><BR/>(1) when government contracts, (and it does sometimes), DC jobs disappear. Yes, DC does have recessions (I have actually heard newbies assure me it does not- I grew up here, let me assure you that it DOES).<BR/><BR/>(2) there are a lot of hardcore criminals, and potential hardcore criminals, in the DC area. When you buy a house in a "renovating" area, you are usually buying a house in an area that was unbelievably violent 10-20 years ago. Those people, and their kids, are often still in the area. Yes, the area may become nice. It could also go back to what it was.<BR/><BR/>(3) newbies have no loyalty to the area. They will leave at the first sign of trouble. Some of these neighborhoods could collapse quickly. I have seen loyal, long-term residents leave the area even though they fought hard to stay- but it just became too dangerous. What will these yuppie, late-drinking newbies do when the neighborhood shows a few signs of trouble? Run.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138566161311135602006-01-29T15:22:00.000-05:002006-01-29T15:22:00.000-05:00No way you'll find that type of reduction. There ...No way you'll find that type of reduction. There is too much demand around here. And there are plenty of people with the kind of money to purchase something like this, especially in a low rate environment like we have now.<BR/><BR/>I do believe some properties are overvalued, mostly suburban condo units, but you can't take a unit like this (in an improving neighborhood, probably renovated) and say it must be overvalued by 40% just because it may have sold for $xxx 10 years ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138558480469470172006-01-29T13:14:00.000-05:002006-01-29T13:14:00.000-05:00Think it is reasonable to assume that the apprecia...Think it is reasonable to assume that the appreciation of the past 5 or 6 years has been totally hallucinatory and will be wiped out.<BR/><BR/>If a home sold for 200K in '97 and now is on the market for 900K, how would anything below a 500K reduction (back to 400K AP) make sense?<BR/><BR/>That's what I'm looking for: total wipeout.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138557164647388502006-01-29T12:52:00.000-05:002006-01-29T12:52:00.000-05:00I think one of the other previous stories says tha...I think one of the other previous stories says that the house last sold for 550,000 (I could be wrong).<BR/><BR/>If its last sale, within a few years ago, was for 550,000, then 850,000 is hardly a reasonable price now. Rents in the DC area have not gone up that much. While 75,000 is a serious reduction, I would think it could be only the first of several.<BR/><BR/>And that is assuming that 550,000 was a reasonable price in the first place. Maybe the palce is worth even less than that. After all, the median income in DC is something in the area of 50-100,000 bucks a year. So that could mean that either this is a really high end house or else it has a long way down to go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138544716452354492006-01-29T09:25:00.000-05:002006-01-29T09:25:00.000-05:00high drops more than low end..till high drops spoo...high drops more than low end..till high drops spook low end and lo and behild, all prices start falling 2-30%...And panic sets in.<BR/><BR/>Fair price for this monster: 500,000 k. No more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1138543805364916172006-01-29T09:10:00.000-05:002006-01-29T09:10:00.000-05:00I don't know. The issue isn't just the size of th...I don't know. The issue isn't just the size of the reduction, but how close it is to "true value," which will eventually reassert itself.<BR/><BR/>In other words, if this thing was worth a lot less than 950 a few years ago (I don't know- I am making that up just as a hypothetical example) and is now listed at 850 reduced from 950, it still could have a long way down to go.<BR/><BR/>It will be interesting to see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com