tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114004214948500419..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Discrepancies in Northern Virginia Association of Realtors' DataDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140140051141276742006-02-16T20:34:00.000-05:002006-02-16T20:34:00.000-05:00They need a REVERSE clock now. That is d*mn ridi...They need a REVERSE clock now. That is d*mn ridiculous.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140136115813097642006-02-16T19:28:00.000-05:002006-02-16T19:28:00.000-05:00http://www.drodio.com/secondary.cfm?content=virgin...http://www.drodio.com/secondary.cfm?content=virginia-and-washington-dc-average-house-price<BR/><BR/>See the home value clock here!!<BR/>And they claim people not buying home now losing $13.25 on an average in equity.<BR/><BR/>This website should be banned :(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140128902918122732006-02-16T17:28:00.000-05:002006-02-16T17:28:00.000-05:00"Units sold were 27.9% below January 2005 levels w..."Units sold were 27.9% below January 2005 levels with 3,188 units sold in January 2006."<BR/><BR/>The NVAR needs to fix this.<BR/><BR/>This sentance is incorrectly worded. It could read "Units sold in January 2006 were 27.9% below Janurary 2005 level . In January 2006, 2,298 units were sold which is significantly lower then the 3,188 units sold in January 2005.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140126907902846082006-02-16T16:55:00.000-05:002006-02-16T16:55:00.000-05:00I have been in ongoing communication with someone...I have been in ongoing communication with someone over at NVAR who has been very responsive. They have fixed the sales numbers to reflect the true decline of 27.9% from January 2005 to January 2006 in Greater Northern Virginia. [It used to say thas sales fell only 10%]<BR/><BR/>The average sales price information still needs to be fixed.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140125074245372912006-02-16T16:24:00.000-05:002006-02-16T16:24:00.000-05:00It's not so easy to correct. As a statistician mys...It's not so easy to correct. As a statistician myself, I think they need a better data analyst to help them changing a lot of previous spreadsheets if the data has to be consistent. I've saved the spreadsheets from Jan05 to Dec05 in case they really dare to do so. And David, you may want to save previous spreadsheets also just in case.<BR/><BR/>My guess: they don't want the data to say that there is only single digit YOY percentage increase and more than 20% units YOY decrease in Great Northern Virginia. Or in other words, they want to create a "soft landing" image.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140122404948679832006-02-16T15:40:00.000-05:002006-02-16T15:40:00.000-05:00I just got a message from the NVAR that the inform...I just got a message from the NVAR that the information has been corrected. I checked and it is still inconsistent.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140121789500362512006-02-16T15:29:00.000-05:002006-02-16T15:29:00.000-05:00robert cote,There are only twe geographies that co...robert cote,<BR/><BR/>There are only twe geographies that consist of multiple counties that are reffered to by the NVAR: 'Northern Virginia Area' and 'Greater Northern Virginia Area.' <BR/><BR/>If you look at either one of the original reports from January 2005 there is zero mention of the 417,495 figure. <BR/><BR/>You write "It also isn't clear that both are equivalent definitions of all homes or just SFRs or a mix."<BR/><BR/>Then the NVAR CANNOT make a oomparison between last years number and this years number.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140120275656998372006-02-16T15:04:00.000-05:002006-02-16T15:04:00.000-05:00I didn't have any trouble parsing the data. The d...I didn't have any trouble parsing the data. The discrepency could merely be one of cachement. One refers to "the Greater Northern Virginia area" and the other "Greater Northern Virginia (also including Prince William, Loudoun and Fauquier Counties)." It also isn't clear that both are equivalent definitions of all homes or just SFRs or a mix. I'll wait for a clearer explaination.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140103054381856752006-02-16T10:17:00.000-05:002006-02-16T10:17:00.000-05:00Thanks, Shill -- er, Jill.Thanks, Shill -- er, Jill.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140102068793347242006-02-16T10:01:00.000-05:002006-02-16T10:01:00.000-05:00Jill Landsman the Manager, Communications & Media ...Jill Landsman the Manager, Communications & Media Relations for the NVAR contacted me and wrote "I am aware of this discrepancy and I am working with the MRIS database folks to try and understand why there is a discrepancy. I should know more today."Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140097187329748422006-02-16T08:39:00.000-05:002006-02-16T08:39:00.000-05:00Is it possible that houses were signed to be bough...Is it possible that houses were signed to be bought, were counted towards the sales in January, but then were called off or never went through in February/March? <BR/><BR/>Would that account for the difference in statistics?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140048140384618442006-02-15T19:02:00.000-05:002006-02-15T19:02:00.000-05:00Great analysis.www.dcbubble.blogspot.comGreat analysis.<BR/><BR/>www.dcbubble.blogspot.comdcbubble.blogspothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559033937374496586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1140042618766332982006-02-15T17:30:00.000-05:002006-02-15T17:30:00.000-05:00The realtors have been contacted about this discre...The realtors have been contacted about this discrepency.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com