tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114247489362540696..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: NVAR: February Market SummaryDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142621359054447662006-03-17T13:49:00.000-05:002006-03-17T13:49:00.000-05:00Houses are still selling fast if they are priced r...Houses are still selling fast if they are priced right and are quality.<BR/><BR/>The jury is still out on a decrease. Deceases in Jan and Feb are not too uncommon, based on these charts. Of course the inventory is higher now and rates are higher - I think the next two months will be key.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142618784616470012006-03-17T13:06:00.000-05:002006-03-17T13:06:00.000-05:00arlingtonva - you are just as anonymous as everyon...arlingtonva - you are just as anonymous as everyone else. BTW, last time I posted (on a different blog, I believe) you jumped all over me because I said that sales seemed to be fairly brisk in my neighborhood.<BR/><BR/>Well, a house down the street sold in 2 days. It was listed over 1million- which i thought was high.<BR/><BR/>Anywho, that is what is happening in my 'hood.<BR/><BR/>Now you can start firing at will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142530442535379082006-03-16T12:34:00.000-05:002006-03-16T12:34:00.000-05:00From today's levels, prices will have to rise 9% b...From today's levels, prices will have to rise 9% by June to avoid having negative YoY comps this summer. With growing inventory, shrinking sales, and rapidly rising interest rates is it really likely that we'll see prices jump 9% in the next four months? I don't think so.<BR/><BR/>YoY will go negative soon, its just a question of when. My quess is May at the latest.John Fontainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246801870171720131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142524203438865802006-03-16T10:50:00.000-05:002006-03-16T10:50:00.000-05:00But let's not jump the gun and call this a bust ba...<I>But let's not jump the gun and call this a bust based on only two months of price decline, when it mirrors what happened in recent years which turned out okay</I><BR/><BR/>Dave,<BR/> Just my 2 cents: I'm sick of the anonmymous B.S.Tom Gullohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06090690491880824920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142524134740038652006-03-16T10:48:00.000-05:002006-03-16T10:48:00.000-05:00arlingtonva,Thats why this blog is here. To report...arlingtonva,<BR/><BR/>Thats why this blog is here. To report on what is being unreported in the housing market.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142523907324356492006-03-16T10:45:00.000-05:002006-03-16T10:45:00.000-05:00Why does the news media ignore the 8% decrease in ...<I>Why does the news media ignore the 8% decrease in prices in less than a year? That should be headline news.</I><BR/><BR/>I'm astonished by this as well. If big media is so silent on substantive issues such as this, what else are they being silent on?<BR/><BR/>Thank god for small media. How many 20 somethings would have bought a 450K condo in 2005 if it wasn't for the internet and blogs such as this?Tom Gullohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06090690491880824920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142523423221871802006-03-16T10:37:00.000-05:002006-03-16T10:37:00.000-05:00I have to agree with Anon. at 6:59AM. It's too ear...I have to agree with Anon. at 6:59AM. It's too early to say in April we will see a negative YOY increase. Acoording to my observation, things are definitely moving faster this month than Jan and Feb. My guess is that there will be a short boom from March to June so price will probably keep the same or even increase slightly. But after June, we will probably begin to see a YOY decrease, that's when things getting really interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142521490018006772006-03-16T10:04:00.000-05:002006-03-16T10:04:00.000-05:00"But let's not jump the gun and call this a bust b..."But let's not jump the gun and call this a bust based on only two months"<BR/><BR/>There are many other reasons why I'm calling it a bust. Inventory, rising interest rates, major decline in speculative buying.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142521168965536202006-03-16T09:59:00.000-05:002006-03-16T09:59:00.000-05:00I agree that 2005 was an anomaly. My point, howev...I agree that 2005 was an anomaly. My point, however, was that 2002-2004, which were not "bust" years (in fact, all three had greater Jan-Dec appreciations than 2005 did) started out the same way 2006 has.<BR/><BR/>That having been said, we're seeing a lot of things that didn't happen in 2002-2004, such as an explosion in inventory and cratering sales. But let's not jump the gun and call this a bust based on only two months of price decline, when it mirrors what happened in recent years which turned out okay.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142520333779423632006-03-16T09:45:00.000-05:002006-03-16T09:45:00.000-05:00but it did not happen in 2005. See my latest post....but it did not happen in 2005. See my latest post.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142519528447760122006-03-16T09:32:00.000-05:002006-03-16T09:32:00.000-05:00While I fully believe there's a bubble just like e...While I fully believe there's a bubble just like everyone else here, and as a renter looking to buy I'm waiting for the pop, I wanted to make one point about the data:<BR/><BR/>If you look at past years, in 2004, 2003, and 2002, we had two straight months of declines in Jan and Feb before prices started tracking upwards again in March. I'm not saying the same thing will happen again, but I just wanted to point out that two months of declines from Dec-Feb aren't unprecedented.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142517839139065832006-03-16T09:03:00.000-05:002006-03-16T09:03:00.000-05:00steinravnik,"March will really be the teller"I ful...steinravnik,<BR/><BR/>"March will really be the teller"<BR/><BR/>I fully agree.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142517771665762362006-03-16T09:02:00.000-05:002006-03-16T09:02:00.000-05:00For Northern Virginia, average prices are down alm...For Northern Virginia, average prices are down almost 2% in just one month and are down over 8% since the peak last summer.<BR/><BR/>Feb 06 vs. Jan 06 = -1.9% <BR/>Feb 06 vs. July 05 (the "peak") = -8.2%<BR/><BR/>Why does the news media ignore the 8% decrease in prices in less than a year? That should be headline news.John Fontainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246801870171720131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1142481042541514502006-03-15T22:50:00.000-05:002006-03-15T22:50:00.000-05:00I've been waiting for this report for weeks.W-O-W!...I've been waiting for this report for weeks.<BR/><BR/>W-O-W!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com