tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114684011455596577..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Speculative EpisodesDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147205555263359012006-05-09T16:12:00.000-04:002006-05-09T16:12:00.000-04:00Bryce,I would agree with you there. In fact, one o...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>I would agree with you there. In fact, one of my first posts was in response to the "Honest Realtor." I was dismayed that he would choose to hype up such a weak marketing effort and couldn't help but to jab him a little. Your response, if read tongue in cheek, could support my observation, or, depending on the tone, could have been completely against it.<BR/><BR/>Regardless of your intent, the inflection would have made it much more interesting!<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147201957389126692006-05-09T15:12:00.000-04:002006-05-09T15:12:00.000-04:00.02- You confuse rhetoric (a standard tool used by....02- <BR/><BR/>You confuse rhetoric (a standard tool used by people with strong language skills) with desperate flip-flopping on issues.<BR/><BR/>That is easy to understand, given the nature of this medium.<BR/><BR/>Your language skills are strong, so I suspect that we would have a more meaningful and perhaps enlightening conversation in realtime, when voice inflection can be heard. (That isn't a challenge; just a thought and perhaps a compliment if you choose to see it that way)<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147200554518716732006-05-09T14:49:00.000-04:002006-05-09T14:49:00.000-04:00Bryce,I would argue you are better at obfuscation,...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>I would argue you are better at obfuscation, not necessarily debating. But then, maybe that's key to successful debating? Oh well, I don't care about that. A discussion board like this is not the optimum medium for a debate perse since there is too much time lag between posts and the direction/intent of someone's argument gets easily lost.<BR/><BR/>Having said that, you originally posted on 5/6 6:27 PM that Warren Buffet should sell his brokerages if he believes his own predictions. This is a weak statement because, and I believe we all acknowledge that, he can still make money as a middle man.<BR/><BR/>When you were called on this, you then changed tactics in your 5/7 7:23 PM post by pushing the focus real estate agents as evil middle men. If they're so evil and going away you argue, THIS THEN, is the reason Buffet should sell. Well, no again. Just because the 6% commission structure is under attack, doesn't mean there won't still be money to be made. It'll probably be someone like Buffet who breaks the mold and delivers a fee for service brokerage to stay competitive.<BR/><BR/>So, you're argument that Buffet should sell, whether as a point blank statement or as a counterpoint for Sarah in DC to think about, is still a weak argument.<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147198865357543202006-05-09T14:21:00.000-04:002006-05-09T14:21:00.000-04:00Because Bryce approaches this all so rationaly, wi...Because Bryce approaches this all so rationaly, with no emotion whatsoever.<BR/><BR/>But he is right - if owning a home was not an emotional decision, no one would be doing it now, because from a purely financial point of view it just doesn't make sense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147175291814909602006-05-09T07:48:00.000-04:002006-05-09T07:48:00.000-04:00.02, I never took a debating class, but I know I h....02, I never took a debating class, but I know I have a better grasp of debating fundamentals than you do.<BR/><BR/>I'm not trumpeting anything. I'm asking Sarah in VA to solidify her point. I don't think that Buffet will or even should sell his brokerage firm. I'm simply asking someone who points to Buffet as the Bellwether of Things to Come to think about why he is in the RE business to begin with; and to juxtapose that thought with the position of some cheerleaders here who say that RE brokers are going the way of the dinosaur. (Please read the posts before you say that no-one here is taking such a position)<BR/><BR/>Is that healthy debate? Or is that an argument? I submit that it is the former - and those of you with a strong emotional attachment to the hope of a national recession and mass foreclosures cannot see it for what it is. <BR/><BR/>The fact is that private homeownership is an emotional issue. Whether you are currently priced out of the market, or house-poor after recently paying too much for a shack; you are emotional about the topic.<BR/><BR/>That is what makes this site intriguing for me. You'll all be better off if you can put some emotional distance between yourselves and this topic, and try to see it from all angles. <BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147152502320648922006-05-09T01:28:00.000-04:002006-05-09T01:28:00.000-04:00Bryce,Your last post really makes no sense. Warren...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>Your last post really makes no sense. Warren Buffet does not need to sell a RE brokerage even if the housing market were to collapse by 90%. Why? Because brokerages make money on the transactions.<BR/><BR/>Additionally, he doesn't need to necessarily sell all of his property if he's holding onto it at pre-bubble prices. Odds are, his cash flow from rental income more than covers his costs on whatever property he owns.<BR/><BR/>Heck, even an owner from 2004 in NOVA's inflated market is still ahead of the game if they should decide to sell at "a loss" from peak prices.<BR/><BR/>Please quit trumpeting his lack of selling as a lack of conviction about his feeling on the market.<BR/><BR/>Come up with a better reason and maybe I'll agree with you...<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147141865162249312006-05-08T22:31:00.000-04:002006-05-08T22:31:00.000-04:00oh, and Sarah in Virginia, I'm still waiting for a...oh, and Sarah in Virginia, I'm still waiting for a compelling post from you on why Warren Buffet's ownership of the second largest real estate brokerage in the entire country is a sure sign of his concrete belief of the immenent collapse of the real estate business in the US.<BR/><BR/>If it is going to collapse, he is going to lose money with a real estate brokerage, isn't he? Shouldn't he sell?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147141716465637982006-05-08T22:28:00.000-04:002006-05-08T22:28:00.000-04:00"Superflous" wasn't a word you used here, Sarah in..."Superflous" wasn't a word you used here, Sarah in Virginia. (In case you didn't remember.)<BR/><BR/>If you *read* the nature of the posts here, you'll see that indeed, the "blog-miester" and some "bubbleheads" do view realtors as bad human beings. READ THE POSTS OBJECTIVELY and you will see that to be true.<BR/><BR/>You sold property in VA and now you live in an apartment in Ballston. Congratulations; that worked for you and you are 100% content with your decision.... or are you? What possible reason could there be for an articulate person such as yourself to not actually read things here with objective eyes?<BR/><BR/>Living in that god-foresaken enclave of waspy wanna-sorta-be-urban consumerism called Ballston must be dulling your otherwise acute powers of perception. How many guys wearing Dockers Pants or wearing baseball caps backwards did you see today?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147131890241010952006-05-08T19:44:00.000-04:002006-05-08T19:44:00.000-04:00Where do you live bacon? I'm "psyched" to meet yo...Where do you live bacon? I'm "psyched" to meet you too.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147128164533921842006-05-08T18:42:00.000-04:002006-05-08T18:42:00.000-04:00Love it, keep the hate and animosity flowing… it j...Love it, keep the hate and animosity flowing… it just makes it all the more guilt-free for me when I finally lowball on something so badly I insult the seller, the seller’s realtor, my realtor and anybody else w/in ear shot. Don’t like it? Fine by me, I’ll check out the FSBOs and more motivated homes in the area and just hire a lawyer for the paperwork. God I hope I run into some of you out there. I’m SIKED!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147109500694431702006-05-08T13:31:00.000-04:002006-05-08T13:31:00.000-04:00"Nonsense. Nothing I've read here is anti homeowne..."Nonsense. Nothing I've read here is anti homeowner or anti realtor. Indeed, most of us are or have been homeowners and have used realtors to buy and sell those homes. If we are anti anything it's anti the speculative mania that has turned housing into the latest version of tulip bulbs. It's likely to lead to a long and painful contraction of the economy as a whole. "<BR/><BR/>Yeah, right. You cheer every piece of bad news in the housing market because you're nice people. Whatever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147108146994710582006-05-08T13:09:00.000-04:002006-05-08T13:09:00.000-04:00Sarah in Virginia said: "Nonsense" when it comes ...Sarah in Virginia said: "Nonsense" when it comes to Bubblemeter being anti-realtor. <BR/><BR/>Scroll down, Sarah in VA. There is an entry titled: "Another 'Honest' Realtor" (a tongue-in-cheek title)<BR/><BR/>Here is one of many anti-realtor comments: (and no, I'm not a realtor, nor do I play one on TV)<BR/><BR/> "va_investor said...<BR/><BR/> Anon 2:15<BR/><BR/> Realtors are the last true monopoly. They are superfluous. Look at the raise they have had in the last 5 years. Why is the commission a % of sales price? There is no correlation between the work performed and the compensation."<BR/><BR/>I'm not arguing for or against the long-term relevance of realtors. Just the fact that you claim to have not read any anti-realtor sentiment on this blog. Turns out that you aren't reading enough.<BR/><BR/>So I ask again: If realtors are evil and must die, why are Buffet's realtors any different? Why doesn't he divest himself of his realty brokerage if in fact real estate agents are "superflous"?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147055029921542542006-05-07T22:23:00.000-04:002006-05-07T22:23:00.000-04:00Sarah in Virginia said: "As for selling his real e...Sarah in Virginia said: "As for selling his real estate companies, why should he?"<BR/><BR/>One of the key points of this blog is that middle-men in the real estate industry are vile parasites on the skin of society. (I don't think that is overstating the point).<BR/><BR/>So if RE middle-men are evil and must die, why are Warren Buffet's RE middle men any different?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147008500438649752006-05-07T09:28:00.000-04:002006-05-07T09:28:00.000-04:00I do. If she doesn't live in DC; why does she sa...I do. If she doesn't live in DC; why does she say that she lives in DC? What's the point? Oh wait, I know: She wants the "cachet" of being a DC-ite while actively avoiding the realities of being a DC-ite. Such attitudes actually detract from our nation's capital.<BR/><BR/>Facts matter, catalyst.<BR/><BR/>I do have a great life, thanks. :)<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146989928225276142006-05-07T04:18:00.000-04:002006-05-07T04:18:00.000-04:00Bryce, with all due respect... Get a Life. Who car...Bryce, with all due respect... <BR/><BR/>Get a Life. <BR/><BR/>Who cares where Sarah lives.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146969310507379182006-05-06T22:35:00.000-04:002006-05-06T22:35:00.000-04:00hey anonymous poster has been to donald trumps sem...hey anonymous poster has been to donald trumps seminars...and bought ALL that cool stuff betcha he's as knowlegeable as carlton sheets ,almost.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146967022598501952006-05-06T21:57:00.000-04:002006-05-06T21:57:00.000-04:00hey anonymous,both centex and hovnanian home are h...hey anonymous,both centex and hovnanian home are having instant equity sales in california's central valley! you get 100k instant equity in elk grove or lincoln ca.,which are bedroom communities for sacramento,HP is in roseville,nice diversified economy...as for a "traumatic event" how about loan resets at higher rates ina falling market with an average 2% down payment in ca last year? oh,and at least 40% of the market speculators,many of whom "mined" their equity to buy those "investment " properties...here in the lovely wine country where millionaires buy tract homes in lovely cotati and west santa rosa to retire in you can cash flow with only 70% down and an interest only loan....call me RIGHT AWAY...and i'll help you get an unforgettable investment!!!(no matter how much you drink)...has anyone else considered how much of a risk premium mortgage loans will have...especially low down loans...they may start calling it pms instead of pmi.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146965271106384912006-05-06T21:27:00.000-04:002006-05-06T21:27:00.000-04:00What I like about the Buffet story is that his org...What I like about the Buffet story is that his organization owns and operates a real estate brokarage! The second largest in the nation, according to that article. If Buffet sells his real estate brokarage business, then we'll see him taking action, not just making rhetoric. I beleive that he beleives that a "slowdown" is taking place, and there is no doubt that his beliefs carry some weight. But the orangatuns at the National Zoo are probably aware that RE is cooling off; that is how obvious it is. Lets see if Buffet actually *divests* himself of both his real estate holdings AND his real estate business. Buffet owns and lives in a modest SFH; I saw it on 60 minutes. Is he going to sell?<BR/><BR/>Sarah, again, please lose the "DC" part of your moniker. Ballston is a world apart from DC proper. Why do you care if someone in Idaho doesn't know where Arlington VA is located?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146953603205901702006-05-06T18:13:00.000-04:002006-05-06T18:13:00.000-04:00Mr. Straw Man, may I introduce Sarah from DC.Mr. Straw Man, may I introduce Sarah from DC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146940684956253662006-05-06T14:38:00.000-04:002006-05-06T14:38:00.000-04:00You people crack me up. Homes in major cities are...You people crack me up. Homes in major cities are SUPPOSED to be very expensive. Rich people like me - city. Middle-class people like you - have a nice commute.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146940486008255062006-05-06T14:34:00.000-04:002006-05-06T14:34:00.000-04:00"Here's an article that talks about how RE and REI..."Here's an article that talks about how RE and REITs track inflation (untill recently). You can see it Here (this wil lauch the new site in your comment window, so right click on the link) "<BR/><BR/>That graph shows Real estate appreciation almost always significantly above inflation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146924066167404052006-05-06T10:01:00.000-04:002006-05-06T10:01:00.000-04:00Anon- People in NYC (and I suspect elsewhere) are ...Anon- <BR/><BR/>People in NYC (and I suspect elsewhere) are using those same excuses to try to say that RE prices cant go down. NYC is int'l too- and the idea that houses are not like stocks only affects the SPEED at which prices can drop- not the fact that they can drop. Job growth has NOT been tied to RE prices for the last 5 years, so that argument does not hold water. If it did, prices should have gone down for 3 or 4 of the last 5 years. <BR/><BR/>While your arguments many have made sense in the past, I suspect that this time it is different. Different in that we've never had this much rampant speculation. Even people who are not speculators bought, in part, thinking about future value. Then of course, you have the flippers, and the ARM crowd. Lastly, you really should be worried when you look at the inventory run up, which is occurring at a -very- fast pace.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146921987203285562006-05-06T09:26:00.000-04:002006-05-06T09:26:00.000-04:00" I have noticed that 1 BR gains have held, 2 BR g..." I have noticed that 1 BR gains have held, 2 BR gains have not"<BR/><BR/>I have found the exact opposite. One brs are listing for less than they went for last year, and still not selling. I can point to two that are 10% less than my losing bid last year. Same building, same size.<BR/><BR/>2brs, at least in Dupont and the areas where I'm looking are still listing high--not sure what they're selling for, if they are selling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146890551723273152006-05-06T00:42:00.000-04:002006-05-06T00:42:00.000-04:00there are many factors driving price. big factors ...there are many factors driving price. big factors supporting prices in this town:<BR/>1) int'l city = lots of turnover and money<BR/>2) no longer a one trick pony - it's more than govt. jobs now<BR/>3) houses are not stocks and do not behave the same way as stocks. they don't liquidate easily and the transaction cost is high. the only way you'll see a bubble burst is if there is a traumatic event (think Love Canal - some of you may not be old enough to know what this is - check Wikipedia).<BR/>4) no major job losses in an industry<BR/>5) the SFH market behaves differently than the condo market so don't lump them together.<BR/><BR/>in my 'hood, houses are selling at or close to 1st asking price and there is no house under $1M. my condo downtown while below peak has held firm and the market is absorbing the listings. location still sells. I have noticed that 1 BR gains have held, 2 BR gains have not, and 3 BRs have dropped from the initial pre-construction prices in my building.<BR/><BR/>20004guyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1146883984653492172006-05-05T22:53:00.000-04:002006-05-05T22:53:00.000-04:00Ours too went up $25 last year. We were a-ok with...Ours too went up $25 last year. We were a-ok with that. (Show me someone whose property tax went up that little) <BR/><BR/>We know we have a great deal - $1350 for a 1bd with den, washer/dryer in unit, including the parking spot and a storage unit downstairs, all utilities except electric, which runs us $40 per month, max. All of this in the Courthouse/Clarendon area of Arlington, newly developed. Condos in our building are on sale for $420K+, so we know that renting is cheaper by far.<BR/><BR/>Our landlord probably bought in the mid-80s and has a $500-$800 mortage. They are making money and we are getting a great deal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com