tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114848129528936526..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: April US New Home Sales DataDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148841022299658822006-05-28T14:30:00.000-04:002006-05-28T14:30:00.000-04:00Anon,I have nothing but a little time invested in ...Anon,<BR/><BR/>I have nothing but a little time invested in real estate. But for some reason, you have come full circle and have no problem suggesting suicide. Maybe you should just foreclose now and get some help.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Maybe start a troll support group?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148674210403516112006-05-26T16:10:00.000-04:002006-05-26T16:10:00.000-04:00"How is changing the data not relevant? I think th..."How is changing the data not relevant? I think that the market is based “on the numbers” and if those can be change at a whim, I would think that would skew the market. Don’t you think?"<BR/><BR/>All government releases like this are subject to revision - you see it all the time in labor statistics, population statistics, economic statistics, crime statistics etc. because in order to timely report to the public, they have to rely on estimates. Sometimes they are revised in a positive way, sometimes they are revised in a negative way. <BR/><BR/>Either way, it doesn't change the fact that you obviously weren't reading carefully when you responded. We were talking about certain posters' wishful thinking that the positive April housing news would be revised down. maybe it will, maybe it won't. But the fact that government numbers are subject to revision doesn't, by itself, imply that anything insideous is going on. <BR/><BR/>If the stats are revised UP will you slit your wrists?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148673313343918962006-05-26T15:55:00.000-04:002006-05-26T15:55:00.000-04:00Anonymous said... Fine, if that's your point, robe...Anonymous said... <BR/>Fine, if that's your point, robert, terrific. It's not relevant to this discussion, but the numbers in March were revised, most likely in an attempt top make them correct.<BR/><BR/>If you simply disbelieve the numbers, then why are you interested in this thread at all? “<BR/><BR/>How is changing the data not relevant? I think that the market is based “on the numbers” and if those can be change at a whim, I would think that would skew the market. Don’t you think?<BR/><BR/>I don’t disbelieve the numbers, I question them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148666822073456682006-05-26T14:07:00.000-04:002006-05-26T14:07:00.000-04:00Fine, if that's your point, robert, terrific. It'...Fine, if that's your point, robert, terrific. It's not relevant to this discussion, but the numbers in March were revised, most likely in an attempt top make them correct.<BR/><BR/>If you simply disbelieve the numbers, then why are you interested in this thread at all?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148655713778263412006-05-26T11:01:00.000-04:002006-05-26T11:01:00.000-04:00“Anonymous said... Robert, we are talking about Ap...“Anonymous said... <BR/>Robert, we are talking about April 2006. It has not been revised. It may be revised, but that hasn't happened yet. Please, please, please try to follow along. “<BR/><BR/>Anon, you may be talking about 2006, but as I posted earlier (in bold) <B>revised March /revised April 2005 estimate</B><BR/>Please, please, pretty please, continue paying minimums on your I/O loan.<BR/><BR/>It matters not what month you’re talking about. The substance of a previous post is questioning why the numbers need to be “revised”. <BR/><BR/>The numbers come out like clockwork on the 10th; “how many homes on the market, how many sold”. Simple as that. What’s the problem? You don’t like the numbers so you “revise” them? That makes things convenient. “Gee Bob, looks like we didn’t see the increase we were hoping to see” “No problem, just revise the numbers”.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148646532939016302006-05-26T08:28:00.000-04:002006-05-26T08:28:00.000-04:00Robert, we are talking about April 2006. It has n...Robert, we are talking about April 2006. It has not been revised. It may be revised, but that hasn't happened yet. Please, please, please try to follow along.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148617183950381772006-05-26T00:19:00.000-04:002006-05-26T00:19:00.000-04:00"Anonymous said...Do you not understand the differ..."Anonymous said...<BR/>Do you not understand the difference between "March" and "April"? These are 2 different months. If you do not know this, you should not leave the house, whether you own or rent, Robert.”<BR/><BR/>So you did go with the what “is” is. <BR/>Yes, two different months (revised March rate/revised April 2005 estimate)<BR/>and as per the report, both were revised.<BR/><BR/>MIRS data comes out on the 10th for the previous month.<BR/><BR/>If you don't understand that, you should not step out of your whale, whether you’re underwater on your loan or HELOC’ed your way to a new SUV,anonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148576658699306882006-05-25T13:04:00.000-04:002006-05-25T13:04:00.000-04:00"Here anon, if you must be spoon feed:http://abcne..."Here anon, if you must be spoon feed:<BR/><BR/>http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1998847 "<BR/><BR/>Do you not understand the difference between "March" and "April"? These are 2 different months. If you do not know this, you should not leave the house, whether you own or rent, Robert.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148570822579836462006-05-25T11:27:00.000-04:002006-05-25T11:27:00.000-04:00Actually, Fannie Mae stock is a decent value now s...Actually, Fannie Mae stock is a decent value now since the scandal and the penalties haev been priced into the stock, and the company's earnings prospects are still quite good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148565403575692172006-05-25T09:56:00.000-04:002006-05-25T09:56:00.000-04:00Here anon, if you must be spoon feed:http://abcnew...Here anon, if you must be spoon feed:<BR/><BR/>http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1998847Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148564953289400382006-05-25T09:49:00.000-04:002006-05-25T09:49:00.000-04:00Anonymous said...“The APRIL number has not been re...Anonymous said...<BR/>“The APRIL number has not been revised. Please try to follow along. You HOPE the number is revised down (for some reason), but there is absolutely no reason to suspect that it wil be - and "Calculated Risk" doesn't give any.”<BR/><BR/>Ok anon, I gave you the benefit of the doubt and re-read the report and once again I quote:<BR/><BR/>““This is 4.9 percent (±11.5%)* above the <B> revised March rate </B> of 1,142,000, but is 5.7 percent (±9.8%)* below the <B> revised April 2005 estimate </B> of 1,270,000.” <BR/><BR/>So the report says “revised” but it does not mean “revised”? Please explain…..hold on, unless you’re going to try to explain what the meaning of “is” is.<BR/><BR/>But let’s keep going……<BR/><BR/> “but there is absolutely no reason to suspect that it wil be - and "Calculated Risk" doesn't give any.”<BR/><BR/>Let’s get this straight. Numbers aren’t fudged? Figures skewed? Unscrupulous acts by anyone in real estate? NO?<BR/><BR/>Then I suggest you just sit on that Fannie Mae stock you have, after all, no one in real estate would lie about the numbers. Real estate only goes Up! Up! Up!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148560056876478602006-05-25T08:27:00.000-04:002006-05-25T08:27:00.000-04:00"OK, ever think you should read the report before ..."OK, ever think you should read the report before posting? As per the report, the numbers are revised.<BR/>"<BR/><BR/>The APRIL number has not been revised. Please try to follow along. You HOPE the number is revised down (for some reason), but there is absolutely no reason to suspect that it wil be - and "Calculated Risk" doesn't give any.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148531107250432912006-05-25T00:25:00.000-04:002006-05-25T00:25:00.000-04:00Anonymous said... …”The number hasn't been revised...Anonymous said... <BR/>…”The number hasn't been revised - that's just a blogger's wishful thinking. Sorry the housing market had good news today. I know it upsets you. ……”<BR/><BR/>OK, ever think you should read the report before posting? As per the report, the numbers are revised.<BR/><BR/>“This is 4.9 percent (±11.5%)* above the revised March rate of 1,142,000, but is 5.7 percent (±9.8%)* below the revised April 2005 estimate of 1,270,000.”<BR/><BR/>And if I understand correctly, the margin of error for the data is greater than the change (up OR down). It could be an increase as high as 16.4% or, a decrease as low as -6.6%. With current inventory levels, which do you think (hope) it is?<BR/><BR/> Hey, do you have some Fanne Mae stock you need to unload?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148521839332592862006-05-24T21:50:00.000-04:002006-05-24T21:50:00.000-04:00"Calculated Risk says "I expect April sales to be ..."<BR/>Calculated Risk says "I expect April sales to be revised down too.""<BR/><BR/>He doesn't say why he expects that. I hope he doesn't slit his wrists if that doesn't happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148521024676706312006-05-24T21:37:00.000-04:002006-05-24T21:37:00.000-04:00"The number of new homes sold is less that the ori..."The number of new homes sold is less that the original number of homes sold last month (before revisions this month) . . . therefore, it seems to me that homes sold didn't rise 4.9%, but once the new numbers are out, will drop below last month's revised numbers.<BR/>"<BR/><BR/>The number hasn't been revised - that's just a blogger's wishful thinking. Sorry the housing market had good news today. I know it upsets you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148518371468045582006-05-24T20:52:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:52:00.000-04:00The number of new homes sold is less that the orig...The number of new homes sold is less that the original number of homes sold last month (before revisions this month) . . . therefore, it seems to me that homes sold didn't rise 4.9%, but once the new numbers are out, will drop below last month's revised numbers. <BR/><BR/>That's not tortured logic. It's not David's fault or anyone else posting on housing right now that the numbers are revised every month (downwards) which creates the appearence of a surge in house purchasing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148517802785543032006-05-24T20:43:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:43:00.000-04:00" Anonymous said... Hello Why does ziprealit..." Anonymous said...<BR/><BR/> Hello<BR/><BR/> Why does zipreality list houses as sold for $10.00?<BR/>"<BR/><BR/>David does that so he can say the bubble is bursting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148517726740690032006-05-24T20:42:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:42:00.000-04:00Haha, David deleted my post in which I pointed out...Haha, David deleted my post in which I pointed out that he gives tortured explanations for every piece of data that doesn't support his preferred conclusions. Nice blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148516351128558832006-05-24T20:19:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:19:00.000-04:00joe06-The point is that is new home sales plunged,...joe06-<BR/><BR/>The point is that is new home sales plunged, the headline wouldn't say that--it would say New Homes sales Ease, or New Home sales cool. That's the game.Nikkihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04033205277611042860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148516246700387192006-05-24T20:17:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:17:00.000-04:00Dammit--baltimorehousing.blogspot.comDammit--baltimorehousing.blogspot.comNikkihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04033205277611042860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148516213216576672006-05-24T20:16:00.001-04:002006-05-24T20:16:00.001-04:00I think it's funny that you choose to emphasize th...I think it's funny that you choose to emphasize that this data is subject to large errors. If the new was "New Home Sales Plunge" you would have overlooked the large errors part.<BR/>-joe06Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148516203872780662006-05-24T20:16:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:16:00.000-04:00Nikki said... Well, I always knew the Baltimore...Nikki said...<BR/><BR/> Well, I always knew the Baltimore Sun was a shill for the MAR, but today's headline about the new home sales numbers sealed the deal. See my <A HREF="baltimorehousing.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">blog</A> for the links, but they took the AP story that all day had been headlined "April new homes sales up 4.9 percent in Apr." and made it "Sales of new homes soar in April". Google it--the Sun is the only place where that's the headline.Nikkihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04033205277611042860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148516131314233852006-05-24T20:15:00.000-04:002006-05-24T20:15:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Nikkihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04033205277611042860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148512150598522342006-05-24T19:09:00.000-04:002006-05-24T19:09:00.000-04:00HelloWhy does zipreality list houses as sold for $...Hello<BR/><BR/>Why does zipreality list houses as sold for $10.00?<BR/><BR/>ThxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148500903264287922006-05-24T16:01:00.000-04:002006-05-24T16:01:00.000-04:00home sales are up so the Fed will keep raising rat...home sales are up so the Fed will keep raising rates... more carnage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com