tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114891238799787655..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Yesterday's Trip: Berkley Springs, WVDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1165373320961222322006-12-05T21:48:00.000-05:002006-12-05T21:48:00.000-05:00Housing as jump all around us, I have growen up in...Housing as jump all around us, I have growen up in Berkeley Springs. Three hundred gets me a three bedroom, two bath on four acres and pond. It's what I paid for the gated condo in VA. with pool and gym. The drive in the mourning or being a slave to the Amtrak sucks. I really enjoy the endless choices of going out in D.C. Then again being able to see the stars at night is cool to in WV. I have a degree in Computer Forensics, useless in Berkeley Springs. When I retire I don't want anything but a sail boat warm weather and a endless supply of rum.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149088957858289772006-05-31T11:22:00.000-04:002006-05-31T11:22:00.000-04:00I guess it goes back to those who read my posts be...I guess it goes back to those who read my posts being offended without actually taking the time to try to understand what I'm saying.<BR/><BR/>I say "Homes in DC that were deemed worthless or were radically undervalued by the market for nearly 40 years now have value because of A, B, and C"<BR/><BR/>You say "No, those homes will revert to the mean (close to being worthless) because of high crime, the fact that condos cost so much in Falls Church, and because banks have loosey-goosey lending policies, etc. etc."<BR/><BR/>Then I say "There is high and growing gang activity in Sterling, Arlington, and Alexandria VA" (Someone had his hands chopped off with a machete in Alexandria in the last year or two, remember? the gang activity in DC is lower now than it is in Seven Corners VA)<BR/><BR/>I also say: "High congestion, poor building quality (see: Sterling & Ashburn) in the suburbs definately point to homes being overvalued there"<BR/><BR/>Then you say "Geez, you sure are anti-suburban. BTW, rampant consumerism lead to this bubble"<BR/><BR/>Then I say: "I agree, look at Levittown NY as the genesis of high density, low quality, consumption-oriented suburban living which also lead to social isolation and unhealthy lifestyles. (See: Obesity Epidemic)"<BR/><BR/>Then you say: "Geez you sure are anti-suburban. BTW, rampant consumerism lead to this bubble"<BR/><BR/>Then I say, "I agree, look at Levittown NY as an example..."<BR/><BR/>ad nauseum. :-)<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149077655384964372006-05-31T08:14:00.000-04:002006-05-31T08:14:00.000-04:00Yeah, bryce's attacks on some of these places are ...Yeah, bryce's attacks on some of these places are a little weird. Silver Spring was designed by people who agree with bryce about how a city should look- high density downtown with lots of jobs and amenities, easy public transportation, and easy pedestrian access to everything. (I drive about once a week and can walk to everything else). Also, Silver Spring borders DC, so it's hardly an ex-urb. Whether all that is good or bad is another issue; I am just presenting some facts.<BR/><BR/>Now on to opinion... I find it difficult to believe that a bubble has developed in the suburbs and not the main city. In fact, if I remember correctly, the percentage of buyers using ARMs in the city in 2005 was higher than in the suburbs, and I take that to mean more marginal buyers. I don't mean this as a city vs. suburb debate; I believe there is a bubble in BOTH places.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149050496114983272006-05-31T00:41:00.000-04:002006-05-31T00:41:00.000-04:00Bryce,I'll bite. From reading your comments, the o...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>I'll bite. From reading your comments, the only consistency I can detect is that you believe City centers are on the rise to the detriment of the suburbs. This is parallel to western european developments. In effect, the wealthy, intelligent, and elite congregate towards the city centers with the outcasts migrating to the city limits - or suburbs.<BR/><BR/>The problem is, America has not followed the European style. The American dream was sold as owning a big home, with a big yard out in the middle of nowhere safe from the big bad city.<BR/><BR/>I do think we will see a gradual shift to European growth/zoning values but I do not believe it will be dramatic or fast. Probably on the order of 20-30 years to develop. Generational level thing.<BR/><BR/>Having said that, I still don't understand your continued attacks against Silver Spring, Herndon, and Arlington. All of those locations have sections of high density living (the city center you extoll) with jobs, night life, restaurant and park/recreation facilities in walking distance... Well, Herndon may be a bit lacking but Reston at least can compete a little.<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149039501254179612006-05-30T21:38:00.000-04:002006-05-30T21:38:00.000-04:00"So why are you focusing on this other issue (subu..."So why are you focusing on this other issue (suburbs vs. city) which is really beside the point, and then imagining your opponents hate cities?"<BR/><BR/>This isn't at all the case. I'm stating (and restating, and restating again) the simple fact that "vast areas of our nation's capital have been undervalued for decades".<BR/><BR/>"Undervalued" means literally that the city took abandoned homes and gave them away. As I mentioned, these homes are within walking distance of the seat of power in the modern world (the US Capitol). <BR/><BR/>If anything, the overpriced burbs lead people to look for value. What better value than dramatically UNDERpriced and long overlooked homes in the center of everything? <BR/><BR/>Now you expect me to beleive that their value will go back to essentially nothing. I say that will happen when Armageddon comes and the United States goes the way of the Roman Empire. Yes, that could happen; but not if a lot of people who actually care have something to say about it. <BR/><BR/>Washington is NOT Herndon, or Silver Spring, or even Arlington. Not even close.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149035649359802852006-05-30T20:34:00.000-04:002006-05-30T20:34:00.000-04:00bryce-You keep trying to turn this into something ...bryce-<BR/><BR/>You keep trying to turn this into something it is not. I have nothing against DC the city; I actually like it quite a bit. I don't agree that there are as many good reasons for high prices, but that is somewhat beside the point.<BR/><BR/>Prices all over the DC area have risen, not just in the city itself. You are setting up a fight as if there are a bunch of urban-bashers here. That is not the case. Most of the bubbleheads also believe that there is a bubble in the suburbs. So why are you focusing on this other issue (suburbs vs. city) which is really beside the point, and then imagining your opponents hate cities?<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149005684000172042006-05-30T12:14:00.000-04:002006-05-30T12:14:00.000-04:00Well said, Fritz.Well said, Fritz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149005361241727292006-05-30T12:09:00.000-04:002006-05-30T12:09:00.000-04:00Did you get the caches?Did you get the caches?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149004769103762812006-05-30T11:59:00.000-04:002006-05-30T11:59:00.000-04:00"It was a real problem."No kidding? I wasn't awar..."It was a real problem."<BR/><BR/>No kidding? I wasn't aware.....<BR/><BR/>What are the underlying factors of the problem? People with handguns in a city where handguns are outlawed? Some sort of genetic flaw that makes violent criminals flock to DC to feed upon one another in an orgy of death and drugs? No, that isn't it. <BR/><BR/>Oh wait; it was policy that turned the inner city of this and other major US cities into warehouses for the poor, the uneducated, the addicted, and the disadvantaged. (something that doesn't happen in other parts of the western world, where the disenfranchised live in the 'burbs) That, in turn, kept Silver Spring "safe" for the "nice folks" like you during the 70's and 80's, and bred a culture of self-reinforcing violence and despair in the city. <BR/><BR/>Well, 'Skins watcher; those days are over. I'm not talking about housing prices here; I'm talking about a fundamental shift in the social fabric. Go back to my previous posts about the hundreds of billions in private and federal money in the pipeline to bring new services to an entirely new city. Target. Lockheed Martin. Trader Joe's for cryin' out loud. The poverty and despair of decades is winding down, and you folks on the other side of the border miss the good old days of knowing in your heart of hearts that you are better than "us folks" who live in DC.<BR/><BR/>Now you're back to trying to test me on whether or not I think townhouses in Loudoun County are overpriced. Of course they are. Go back and read several weeks worth of my posts about lack of amenenities, congestion, and poor build quality in the suburbs.<BR/><BR/>Is it so very impossible for you to accept that neighborhoods in your nation's capital that have been down for decades have finally bounced back?<BR/><BR/>Look into Logan Circle and the area around Union Station. WALK around those areas. They are *fundamentally* different from the way they were when I moved here in 1992.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149003668082236882006-05-30T11:41:00.000-04:002006-05-30T11:41:00.000-04:00"But to delete contrarians for "personal attacks" ..."But to delete contrarians for "personal attacks" while neglecting to delete similar attacks made by bubbleheads against those who don't share the bubble viewpoint, is a bit hypocritical."<BR/><BR/>I really try to delete any and all personal insults. Believe it or not I do NOT read every comment.<BR/><BR/>"Likewise, if the purpose of this blog is to have free and open debate on the issue of real estate bubbles, then deleting contrarian viewpoints is hardly a way to maintain credibility on the issue."<BR/><BR/>The vast majority of contrarian viewpoints are NOT deleted. Those that break the blog rules are very likely to be deleted.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149001799968557222006-05-30T11:09:00.000-04:002006-05-30T11:09:00.000-04:00For those complaining about David's delete key bei...For those complaining about David's delete key being in overdrive lately: It's his blog and he can cry if he wants to. He's free to delete anyone and everyone that he wants for whatever reason, no matter how arbitrary it may seem. It's his blog; he sets the rules.<BR/><BR/>But to delete contrarians for "personal attacks" while neglecting to delete similar attacks made by bubbleheads against those who don't share the bubble viewpoint, is a bit hypocritical. <BR/><BR/>Likewise, if the purpose of this blog is to have free and open debate on the issue of real estate bubbles, then deleting contrarian viewpoints is hardly a way to maintain credibility on the issue. <BR/><BR/>Debate, not deletion, is the way to win the argument.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1149001662819110662006-05-30T11:07:00.000-04:002006-05-30T11:07:00.000-04:00bryce-A homicide rate of over 400 a year for almos...bryce-<BR/><BR/>A homicide rate of over 400 a year for almost a decade was not some sort of institutionalized irrationality. It was a real problem. Things have calmed down somewhat, and I hope they continue to do so.<BR/><BR/>Furthermore, even if you are right that all the demand factors point up for homes inside DC (and I say this only for the sake of argument), don't you think the gigantic DC price rise is part of a larger phenomenon? After all, it isn't just "beautiful" homes within sight of the Capitol that have had skyrocketing prices-- those townhouses in Loudoun that you hate have also skyrocketed. Don't you think there is something related in the two phenomena, like maybe easy credit?<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148998839843612042006-05-30T10:20:00.000-04:002006-05-30T10:20:00.000-04:00I went to Harper's Ferry and Charleston are last w...I went to Harper's Ferry and Charleston are last weeked and noticed it was bubblicous out there. I lived in this area for about 20+ years and Harper's Ferry was an escape from the rat race. Now it seems the rat race is expanding to that area so I will have to drive further away. It's getting more and more expensive to take a break from the rat race.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148997167684320542006-05-30T09:52:00.000-04:002006-05-30T09:52:00.000-04:00To NOT see that block after block after block of b...To NOT see that block after block after block of beautiful homes in DC within eyesight of the US Capitol Dome are worth more than nothing, is foolish.<BR/><BR/>The city was *giving homes away* in the 80's. So you're saying that a reversion to the mean is probable. The mean home price for most of DC outside of _upper_ Northwest over the past 25 years is, what? <BR/><BR/>So *now* you can get a multi-level solid brick victorian for $400K; a home that was deeded to a previous owner for 1 dollar and a promise to cut the weeds in the front yard. You're saying it will fall back to somewhere closer to $1?<BR/><BR/>Why did block after block after block of beautiful old solid brick victorian era homes within eyesight of the US Capitol Dome become worthless? See my previous post on institutionalize racism, the Eisenhower highway initiative, and the "invention" of the mass-produced suburban community.<BR/><BR/>A previous poster said that prices will revert to the mean if a thermonuclear device is detonated downtown. I've been saying the same thing for years. When that happens, all you renters can pick and choose which property you want to purchase for pennies on the dollar and live comfortably knowing that you were right. <BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148996208216699732006-05-30T09:36:00.000-04:002006-05-30T09:36:00.000-04:00LOL. Nice try, bryce. It is a fact that crime we...LOL. Nice try, bryce. It is a fact that crime went way up in DC proper for a long time. And it is also a fact that population declined. You are the one imagining the rest of my motivations.<BR/><BR/>I don't "look down my nose" at DC. I love DC. But, as a Marylander, I love Maryland more. I have nothing against DC.... which does not mean that I think that the house prices there are rational.<BR/><BR/>I plead guilty to being a football fan, though.<BR/><BR/>Bryce, what you seem to be trying to do is bait people into this suburbs vs. city argument. I can only speak for myself, but I think that most bubble-believers think that BOTH the DC burbs AND the city itself are in bubbles. I certainly do. I think cities, suburbs, and ex-urbs all have advantages and disadvantages, but comparing them when prices of all three have skyrocketed is not really useful.<BR/><BR/>IMHO, the thing that has made Arlington condos be priced at nearly a million while exurban townhouses go for a half a million is the same thing that has made DC properties explode in price also... a bubble based mostly on easy credit. All the rest is a sideshow.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148994667614873162006-05-30T09:11:00.000-04:002006-05-30T09:11:00.000-04:00"real reasons in terms... "You cannot talk about p..."real reasons in terms... "<BR/><BR/>You cannot talk about popultion decline and crime without talking about institutionalized racism. Look toward the public policy that made vast swaths of our nation's capital literal warzones, all while suburban sprawl crept across (and destroyed) the landscape and took "nice folks" out of DC.<BR/><BR/>If racism is a "real reason" for you, and you accept that as a part of everyday life; you aren't the strong man you seem to think you are. You're either on board with DC being something you can be proud of, or you aren't. *RACISM* in the 1960's tore our nation's capital apart and it *only* JUST started to turn around in the past 6-7 years. Think about that. And think about all the "nice folks" like you who sit just on the other side of the DC border and look down your noses at your own nation's capital. It is shameful, really. (I grew up in the cold midwest, by the way)<BR/><BR/>Beleive me; I'm not "coming around" to any of your positions. Can you see that? I know perfectly well about population migration and crime statistics in DC. You sit on the sidelines, I don't.<BR/><BR/>I'm fine with ethno-centric football fans, and their cars, staying out of DC. Our nation's capital needs enlightened individuals.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148994227682538382006-05-30T09:03:00.000-04:002006-05-30T09:03:00.000-04:00Bryce,That "newcomer" crack certainly sounds like ...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>That "newcomer" crack certainly sounds like an insult to me.<BR/><BR/>sedentary suburbanite aka va.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148993470706590142006-05-30T08:51:00.000-04:002006-05-30T08:51:00.000-04:00bryce-I'm not going to look at all your links beca...bryce-<BR/><BR/>I'm not going to look at all your links because I am familiar with a lot of that material. <BR/><BR/>And regardless, it is immaterial to what I said. You said that prices in DC had been artificially depressed since 1963. I was pointing out that there were good reasons why prices were low. Now you offer more in-depth reasons why. Fine... it seems you are now coming around to what I said in the first place (i.e., that there were real reasons in terms of declining population and dramatically rising crime- the specifics of which we can debate all day).<BR/><BR/>I retract my statement about you being a newcomer. I was wrong, and it was an unfounded accusation. Sorry.<BR/><BR/>Bryce, there are many reasons why a house a few blocks from the Capitol was (a decade ago) worth less than one in Bethesda. Lower taxes in Bethesda. Lower crime in Bethesda. Police came when you called in Bethesda, etc. And DC was not a great job market in 1995.<BR/><BR/>Are things changing? For the moment, yes. How long will it last? I don't know. But there were good reasons why DC real estate was cheap a few years ago... and maybe not all those reasons are gone. DC is not a permanent bull market... the job market does go south sometimes.<BR/><BR/>I don't disagree with you that the exurbs may be in for hard times also. I think everything within 50 miles of DC is bubblicious. It has more to do with easy credit than the specifics of each real estate market.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148992563238048282006-05-30T08:36:00.000-04:002006-05-30T08:36:00.000-04:00Here Skins Fan, I'll provide a head start for you ...Here Skins Fan, I'll provide a head start for you in understanding population trends in the US following WWII:<BR/><BR/>http://tigger.uic.edu/~pbhales/Levittown.html<BR/><BR/>Remember, the suburban lifestyle did not exist until the middle of the 20th century. This is the genesis of our consumer culture.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148992287378328852006-05-30T08:31:00.000-04:002006-05-30T08:31:00.000-04:00"newcomer"? I moved to DC in 1992.Population decl..."newcomer"? I moved to DC in 1992.<BR/><BR/>Population decline in the 1950's is attributable to Eisenhower's Interstate Highway initiative and the return of American manufacturing capacity from war goods to durable consumer goods. Do yourself a favor and look into a man named "Levitt" and see how he reshaped both the landscape and the American society in the 1950's. The trend that started in the 1950's in DC was applicable across all major US cities; especially NYC.<BR/><BR/>Go back to the 60's and look at the race riots for the root cause of depressed values. Most of DC never recovered. There is no reason a beautiful, well-made home less than 1 mile from the US Capitol, (that is walking distance for the non-sedentary, by the way) less than three miles from the White House, in the center of a stable, viable job market, is worth less than an 975sf highrise condo in Bethesda. Especially when the suburbs are now more congested than the city center. (Did you know there is a building hieght restriction in DC?) Get it? Finite resources.<BR/><BR/>Frankly, Skins Fan; I'm biased against people who declare themselves a "Redskins Fan". The NFL is lame, the people who follow the NFL are typically overweight lemmings, and I'm part Cherokee. (all true)<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148991393184822022006-05-30T08:16:00.000-04:002006-05-30T08:16:00.000-04:00"Real estate values in DC proper have been artific..."Real estate values in DC proper have been artificially depressed for decades. Please look into that before jumping right back at me and saying it isn't true. (start with the history of DC circa 1963)"<BR/><BR/>Bryce-<BR/><BR/>LOL. Frankly, you are another newcomer who doesn't know what he is talking about. DC proper started losing population sometime in the 1950s, and then had serious rising crime right up until around 1995 or so.<BR/><BR/>Prices were depressed... for some very good reasons.<BR/><BR/>I agree with you that condos in Arlington are bubblicious.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148963349010946992006-05-30T00:29:00.000-04:002006-05-30T00:29:00.000-04:00Bryce, you seem to spend a whole lot of time at yo...Bryce, you seem to spend a whole lot of time at your computer typing nasty remarks directed at David and others. Maybe you're a sedentary urbanite. But I guess that anyone who lives in DC can do no wrong, while someone who lives in the suburbs is a shameful individual, not worthy of any respect. Seriously, give me a break. Your holier-than-thou attitude is just plain annoying. Living in DC does not make someone a better person than someone who lives in the suburbs. Plenty of people who live in DC have cars also, and they use them to go places -- so what?<BR/><BR/>JohnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148960591001794692006-05-29T23:43:00.000-04:002006-05-29T23:43:00.000-04:00"If you don't want strangers inside your head, dav..."If you don't want strangers inside your head, david, then don't reveal so much about yourself on the Internet."<BR/><BR/>This is my blog. I will reveal what I want to reveal which is not much. Stop harassing me or else you WILL be DELTED.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148960276679210212006-05-29T23:37:00.000-04:002006-05-29T23:37:00.000-04:00"We will get to see only the comments that don't a..."We will get to see only the comments that don't annoy you. "<BR/><BR/>It's been a banner day; at least 50 percent of my posts have been deleted, and the "worst" thing I said was "sedentary suburbanite".<BR/><BR/>You should have seen the contrite apologies I made. They were deleted too.<BR/><BR/>If you don't want strangers inside your head, david, then don't reveal so much about yourself on the Internet.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148956950388780242006-05-29T22:42:00.000-04:002006-05-29T22:42:00.000-04:00I guess you never went through the "sticks and sto...I guess you never went through the "sticks and stones" phase of grade school.<BR/><BR/>Last week you deleted several of my comments that were not, in my opinion, insulting to you or anyone else.<BR/><BR/>sedentary suburbanite aka va_investor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com