tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post115021160529140625..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Recent Housing 'Investors' Are HurtingDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154119814167221652006-07-28T16:50:00.000-04:002006-07-28T16:50:00.000-04:00I've noticed that some of the weblinks on this sit...I've noticed that some of the weblinks on this site (i.e. novabubble.blogspot.com -- when you try to go there, you get HIJACKED to a site advertising Lamborginis. What's up with that? A phony site to get bubbleheads to get frustrated? These greedy sellers and/or realtors will stoop to nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150855348265153672006-06-20T22:02:00.000-04:002006-06-20T22:02:00.000-04:00I would only trust a study done by UPenn. Harvard...I would only trust a study done by UPenn. Harvard Sucks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150765878734889112006-06-19T21:11:00.000-04:002006-06-19T21:11:00.000-04:00You can borrow mine.You can borrow mine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150559288320024152006-06-17T11:48:00.000-04:002006-06-17T11:48:00.000-04:00I think you were trying to make an argument there,...I think you were trying to make an argument there, Lance... Not sure what you're trying to say though - confused by all of the verbage. It makes it appear, at first glance, that you're saying something meaningful.<BR/><BR/>But wade through the trash and we find - well, more trash.<BR/><BR/>Get your thoughts in order before posting, please. It's a waste of our time to try to decipher such doublespeak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150493898175850952006-06-16T17:38:00.000-04:002006-06-16T17:38:00.000-04:00Bill said:"Lance meant to say, "In a free market, ...Bill said:<BR/><BR/>"Lance meant to say, "In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR -- until SPECULATORS move in, their activity fueled by low interest loans, CROOKED appraisals, and the uncritical media CHEERLEADING them on." <BR/><BR/>It may surprise you that I actually agree with you ... to a point. I know lots of speculators drove up prices on properties providing no "value added" in the process. I mean, if someone bought a wreck and renovated it, then they have added value and deserve to be rewarded ... But many of these people didn't do that ... And if they are finding that they can't now sell the properties for a profit, I have no sympathy for them. They played with fire and got burned. However, I disagree with you about "crooked appraisals" for sure and am only partially in agreement with you about the media cheering on the price rise frenzy. Appraisals aren't crooked if they reflect what properties are going for ... and in a rising market that (ie, "higher-than-before") is what a properties are going for ... Additionally, appraisals are really only meant to protect the bank ... to avoid the situation where someone walks away from their property and the bank can't sell it to recoup the loan. It really doesn't involve the buyer. If a buyer is looking to buy to live in a place (and not flip it) what does it matter if an appraisal exists or not? The buyer is not looking to turnaround the property right away ... and appraisals are only good for the period in which they are given. Looked at another way, so what if soneone's house appraised at $80K when they bought it in 1996 ... it is not relavant now. The only ones that can be hurt by a wrong appraisal are banks and flippers ... and hurting both of these can only help bring prices down ... not up. As for the media cheering on the frenzie ... I see your point ... But, people are after all adults ... If the media told them to jump over a bridge, should they? But I do see how this probably fueled prices somewhat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150463663354284792006-06-16T09:14:00.000-04:002006-06-16T09:14:00.000-04:00Jackson,Lance meant to say, "In a free market, con...Jackson,<BR/><BR/>Lance meant to say, "In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR -- until SPECULATORS move in, their activity fueled by low interest loans, CROOKED appraisals, and the uncritical media CHEERLEADING them on."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150456374387843552006-06-16T07:12:00.001-04:002006-06-16T07:12:00.001-04:00Jackson,Hmmm you're calculations for determining w...Jackson,<BR/><BR/>Hmmm you're calculations for determining what a condo "should" cost sound eerily like how the central planners of the former Soviet Union would have determined how to "price" something. The problem was, this articificial pricing didn't do the allocation job that pricing is meant to do. It just mucked everything up to the point where everyone was living in cell-block-like structures 'cause in the end the only person with any decision making ability was some government worker in some back office. The decision making of where people were going to live ... and even HOW people were going to live, was taken away from them. Seriously, how can you think the price "should be" anything other than what it HAS been? In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150456341385472922006-06-16T07:12:00.000-04:002006-06-16T07:12:00.000-04:00Jackson,Hmmm you're calculations for determining w...Jackson,<BR/><BR/>Hmmm you're calculations for determining what a condo "should" cost sound eerily like how the central planners of the former Soviet Union would have determined how to "price" something. The problem was, this articificial pricing didn't do the allocation job that pricing is meant to do. It just mucked everything up to the point where everyone was living in cell-block-like structures 'cause in the end the only person with any decision making ability was some government worker in some back office. The decision making of where people were going to live ... and even HOW people were going to live, was taken away from them. Seriously, how can you think the price "should be" anything other than what it HAS been? In a free market, condos/houses sell at the FAIR market value with the emphasis on FAIR.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150441357918139282006-06-16T03:02:00.000-04:002006-06-16T03:02:00.000-04:00I'm with the Redskins fan. Condos shouldnt cost mo...I'm with the Redskins fan. Condos shouldnt cost more than 200k, period unless they're on the becah in San Diego, or in Manhattan. Naive, maybe, but that's what you get when you fall in love with speculative stupidity. Actually, a fair price is whatever that ratio everybody touts, 7-8 times annual salary, which i guess would make 350k about right. But that's for<BR/>a HOUSE, jimmy, not a condo. Who wants ot live on the East Coast anyway.<BR/><BR/>"The West is the best, get here, we'll do the rest" - Jim Morrison.Jackson Wallacehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00518575210326929963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150403152657228032006-06-15T16:25:00.000-04:002006-06-15T16:25:00.000-04:00How's this for voracious landlords? We poor rente...How's this for voracious landlords? We poor renters who suffer so much... From the Boston Globe:<BR/><BR/>Rent or own? Don't jump to conclusions<BR/><BR/>By Christine McConville, Globe Staff | June 15, 2006<BR/><BR/>Like many longtime renters, Gregg Croteau was fed up with paying someone else's mortgage. He wanted his own place.<BR/><BR/>But as he started looking at property in Lowell, where he runs a teen empowerment group, he was so stunned by sky-high asking prices that he decided to keep renting and wait for a bargain.<BR/><BR/>Selling prices, he reasoned, had to come down at some point.<BR/><BR/>People like Croteau have added to the demand for rental units in the Boston area, where realtors expect rents to rise for the first time in several years. But Croteau's case also illustrates how conflicting forces are pulling down the region's housing market, meaning rents are likely to rise more slowly here than in other parts of the United States.<BR/><BR/>Late last month the National Association of Realtors reported that across the country, rents will be on the rise, mostly because the slowdown of the for-sale housing market has led to increased competition for rental units.<BR/><BR/>The association predicts that across the country, renters will be paying, on average, 5 percent more in rent than they did last year. If true, that would be the highest increase since 2000.<BR/><BR/>Walter Moloney, the association's spokesman, said that nationally, 4.5 percent of apartments are vacant, a sizable drop from last year's vacancy rate of 5.2 percent.<BR/><BR/>In Greater Boston, he said, competition is even greater, with just 3.9 percent of apartments vacant.<BR/><BR/>Tom Meagher, the president of Northeast Apartment Advisors, a real estate research firm in Acton, said he agrees with Moloney's statistics.<BR/><BR/>``Yes, there will be rent growth," he said. ``But it had to happen, because there has been no rent growth in the last few years."<BR/><BR/>Meagher recently surveyed the owners of several hundred apartment buildings in the region and has determined that there will be a 3 to 4 percent increase in rents throughout metropolitan Boston this year.<BR/><BR/>Although the Boston area has more competition for apartments, he said, that hasn't translated into heftier rent hikes, because ``we are losing population as a state and have been for the last several years, so there is less demand in the existing rental stock."<BR/><BR/>Also, he said, there is a significant amount of new rental housing becoming available. After ``underproducing rental housing for years," several significant rental developments are now under construction, he said.<BR/><BR/>Jutta Donahue owns a rental property in Stoneham, and in recent months she's watched as her landlord-related costs have soared. ``My condo fees have gone up because of fuel costs, and my insurance has gone up, too. Water costs, everything," she said from her Woburn office last week.<BR/><BR/>She thought about raising the rent, and then she thought about the consequences of doing that.<BR/><BR/>``Do you raise the rent and risk a possible vacancy or keep the rent low to keep someone in there?"<BR/><BR/>Donahue decided to absorb the added costs herself because she has a good tenant and wants to keep him. Increasing the rent, she said, would probably force him out.<BR/><BR/>``Then my place could go empty for a while, but I'd still have to pay the bills," she said.<BR/><BR/>National experts say that's not likely in most cases, however, since there's a shortage of rental units.<BR/><BR/>During the not-so-distant housing boom, many property owners in Massachusetts converted two- and three-family homes into condominium buildings, a move that took many rental units off the market.<BR/><BR/>According to the National Association of Realtors, there are 191,400 fewer apartments in the country as a result of these conversions. With all the condominiums on the market, many longtime renters stopped renting because they were able to take advantage of historically low interest rates and purchased the condominiums as their first homes.<BR/><BR/>Now there is a glut of condominiums on the market.<BR/><BR/>Meagher said that this spring there were 16,372 condominiums for sale throughout the state -- an 81 percent increase from the same time last year. Also, he said, 46,000 condominiums are in various development stages.<BR/><BR/>These days, potential homeowners are carefully monitoring the swollen housing inventory and watching as the cost of borrowing money for a mortgage gets more expensive. Some have decided to wait, adding to the pressure on the rental market.<BR/><BR/>Croteau has been searching to buy a home for a little more than a year and has noticed two emerging trends. First, homes are on the market longer than they were a year ago.<BR/><BR/>Some renters have finally decided it's time to make the move to ownership.<BR/><BR/>``There used to be this feeling that if you didn't grab it, it would be gone in two days," Croteau said.<BR/><BR/>Now, he said, prices are starting to come down. ``I'm confident that I'm going to get something good sooner rather than later."<BR/><BR/>Many renters feel that time is on their side.<BR/><BR/>``There are lots of first-time home buyers who are waiting to purchase, and they are continuing to rent," said Jason Weissman, president of Boston Realtors Advisors.<BR/><BR/>``Then there are people who have sold their homes and are waiting to buy another but are renting for now. They are waiting to see if prices drop."<BR/><BR/>Arthur Horiatis, a principal at Tory Row Real Estate in Cambridge, said that ``wait-and see" approach could eventually trigger drops in rents in the suburbs northwest of Boston.<BR/><BR/>In the long run, he said, ``I think that the rents will stay flat or possibly go down," because when homeowners can't sell their property, they have to choose between lowering their selling price or renting their home, he said.<BR/><BR/>If the owners opt to rent, rental inventory will increase and prices will drop.<BR/><BR/>Those who say rents are going up also point to a revived job market after several years of a sluggish economy. That can help offset the loss in population.<BR/><BR/>Weissman said he's helped many newcomers find apartments in Greater Boston. Most of them are working in mutual fund or fund management jobs.<BR/><BR/>``People are coming from all over," he said.<BR/><BR/>Meagher agreed, saying, ``This is the first time that we are seeing any type of job growth in years."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150392988918870712006-06-15T13:36:00.000-04:002006-06-15T13:36:00.000-04:00the Odyssey finally came online...http://www.arlin...the Odyssey finally came online...<BR/><BR/>http://www.arlingtonva.us/Departments/RealEstate/reassessments/scripts/SearchResults.asp?ParcelID=&StrtNum=2001&StrtName=15th&StrtType=ST&StrtDir=N&UnitNum=&Tradename=&EconUnit=<BR/><BR/>lower floors doing okay but mid on up haven't sold sh*t. they are HUR-TING.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150344943953300662006-06-15T00:15:00.000-04:002006-06-15T00:15:00.000-04:00I paid $1900 a month for an equivalent apt. (high ...I paid $1900 a month for an equivalent apt. (high floor) brand new in that place when it opened as an apt. building in Feb 02 (2 underground parking spots included). I was kicked out when my lease expired in 04 because they went to corporate rentals ($4000/month) and then turned condo. Why you would ever pay $591k is beyond me.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150342189670780022006-06-14T23:29:00.000-04:002006-06-14T23:29:00.000-04:00Market Psychology Stages: (lifted from John Hussma...Market Psychology Stages: (lifted from John Hussman - he is talking about the stock market, but it applies to real estate too)<BR/><BR/> 1. "This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be out of the market anymore!"<BR/><BR/>2. "I don't care about the price, just get me in!!"<BR/><BR/>3. "It's a healthy correction" - YOU ARE HERE<BR/><BR/>4. "See, it's already coming back, better buy more before the new highs"<BR/><BR/>5. "Alright, a retest. Add to the position - buy the dip"<BR/><BR/>6. "What a great move! Am I a genius or what?"<BR/><BR/>7. "Uh oh, another selloff. Well, we're probably close to a bottom"<BR/><BR/>8."New low? What's going on?!!"<BR/><BR/>9. "Alright, it's too late to sell here, I'll get out on the next rally"<BR/><BR/>10. "Hey!! It's coming back. Glad that's over!"<BR/><BR/>11. "Another new low. But how much lower can it go?"<BR/><BR/>12. "No, really, how much lower can it go?"<BR/><BR/>13. "Sweet Mother of Joseph! How much lower can it go?!?"<BR/><BR/>14. "There's no way I'll ever make this back!"<BR/><BR/>15. "This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be in the market anymore!"<BR/><BR/>16. "I don't care about the price, just get me out!!"<BR/><BR/>I look for the bottom of this market about 2012-2014. So get ready to go out and buy come Spring, 2014!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150321837905902262006-06-14T17:50:00.000-04:002006-06-14T17:50:00.000-04:00I think that I saw Eftekhari the other day...you w...I think that I saw Eftekhari the other day...you will know him when you see him; he is the one walking around with the "O" face. Ohh, Ohh!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150319147000030852006-06-14T17:05:00.000-04:002006-06-14T17:05:00.000-04:00va_investor"I thought that your inane comment dese...va_investor<BR/>"I thought that your inane comment deserved no reasoned response. Sorry to offend you. "<BR/><BR/>Cool! I should also stick to reasoned responses and avoid insults.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150318436757305602006-06-14T16:53:00.000-04:002006-06-14T16:53:00.000-04:00wvu,I thought that your inane comment deserved no ...wvu,<BR/><BR/>I thought that your inane comment deserved no reasoned response. Sorry to offend you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150317599463452112006-06-14T16:39:00.000-04:002006-06-14T16:39:00.000-04:00Bacon,You're absolutely right about the retiring g...Bacon,<BR/><BR/>You're absolutely right about the retiring government workers not being replaced by new government workers. They are being replaced by government contractors who don't come with all the strings attached that government workers come with. This has been going on since the Reagan years. Nothing new there other than that the REAL growth in government spending is in the private sector ... in the government contracting area.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150317386392830582006-06-14T16:36:00.000-04:002006-06-14T16:36:00.000-04:00STOP POSTING IN MY NAME! I'VE REPORTED YOU TO DAVI...STOP POSTING IN MY NAME! I'VE REPORTED YOU TO DAVID.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150317110354818352006-06-14T16:31:00.000-04:002006-06-14T16:31:00.000-04:00The regret must be enormous for this sad & forlorn...The regret must be enormous for this sad & forlorn home-debtor. Buying at the top of a bubble market and riding it down puts you on the fast track towards poverty. Renters don't have regrets, only freedom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150316486920996042006-06-14T16:21:00.000-04:002006-06-14T16:21:00.000-04:00va investor"You're absolutely right! No houses for...va investor<BR/>"You're absolutely right! No houses for these workers!"<BR/><BR/>I was hoping for an intelligent answer. But this would be a typical smart aleck response that I would expect from you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150314245980446862006-06-14T15:44:00.000-04:002006-06-14T15:44:00.000-04:00Classic case of following the market down. Dumb fu...Classic case of following the market down. Dumb fuck should have dropped price ahead of market and he might have been able to sell. Funny stuff though. I guess real estate sometimes loses value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150314051250335062006-06-14T15:40:00.000-04:002006-06-14T15:40:00.000-04:00"home crap home at Clarendon 1021..."The mood in t..."home crap home at Clarendon 1021..."<BR/><BR/>The mood in that place must really suck! How do you think the owners will react when they hear about condo fee increases?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150313504623566542006-06-14T15:31:00.000-04:002006-06-14T15:31:00.000-04:00home crap home at Clarendon 1021...http://washingt...home crap home at Clarendon 1021...<BR/><BR/>http://washingtondc.craigslist.org//rfs/171475339.html<BR/><BR/>bought for $551.4k at the peak (Aug-05), now listing for $549k plus $5k closing help WITH a realtor so there's another 3% (at least) off the top.<BR/><BR/>so big sis bought it and lil sis couldn't handle the payments after the "sale or gift to relative". it's a shame but very indicative of the speculative buying craze in Arlington.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150313309716438862006-06-14T15:28:00.000-04:002006-06-14T15:28:00.000-04:007/5 of all people don't understand fractions anywa...7/5 of all people don't understand fractions anyway. Funny how inventories in the entire DC area follow the same pattern. They pour on a couple days one week, and then they just sit for several days. I see why they come on heavy on Wednesday and Thursday to be ready for the weekend, but some weeks, they run way up, and others, they trickle in the same way in Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, etc. I guess they are all f'ed in unison.<BR/><BR/>Nasdaq on verge of 9 day losing steak - place your bets - will it break to the green?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1150313244106827572006-06-14T15:27:00.000-04:002006-06-14T15:27:00.000-04:00wvu,You're absolutely right! No houses for these ...wvu,<BR/><BR/>You're absolutely right! No houses for these workers!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com