tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post115152677683319537..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Blanche Evans of Realty Times Sounds DesperateDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151681849568198592006-06-30T11:37:00.000-04:002006-06-30T11:37:00.000-04:00Bill aka DC Housing News said:"a meager 0.4% rise,...Bill aka DC Housing News said:<BR/><BR/>"a meager 0.4% rise, nationwide, on average of housing prices over inflation the past 100 years."<BR/><BR/>You don't really believe this, do you? Even if this low percentage were true, which it isn't, can you understand the concept that a price of an "average house" has nothing to do with the appreciation on "your house" since what is "average" shifts over time? Going back 100 years ago, the "average" house in this metro area was a house being built in maybe in Kalorama or Adams Morgan (today's names for these locales). An average house being built today is somewhere in Frederick MD or Frederickburg VA. So, if you are talking about price appreciation of average houses over 100 years, you also have to note that in 100 years this "average" house has moved some 50 miles from the epicenter of the city. By contrast, the value of the house you bought in Kalorama or Adams Morgan has skyrocketed over those same 100 years. Do you see the distinction? Also, average house appreciation rates are more along the line of 5% per year (plus inflation) over the long haul from everything I've ever read. I don't know where you are pulling 0.4% from ... that isn't credible. Many of your statements seem to be pulled either from the air, or worse yet, from the bodily part you sit on.<BR/><BR/>BTW, Bill, why are you using a new user name? Did David ban you from this site because you are continuing to use his blog's name as part of yours?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151681738314845532006-06-30T11:35:00.000-04:002006-06-30T11:35:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151681110987342512006-06-30T11:25:00.000-04:002006-06-30T11:25:00.000-04:00DC Housing News said... "Again, you deny being a r...DC Housing News said... <BR/>"Again, you deny being a real estate agent! I'm simply stating what you've stated before on this and other blogs."<BR/><BR/>I have never said I was a real estate agent ... I am not. If you had been following, you'd know I said I was in the IT field. Why do you insist on lying?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151677628709123402006-06-30T10:27:00.000-04:002006-06-30T10:27:00.000-04:00dc housing news/ bill said:"What goes up, always c...dc housing news/ bill said:<BR/><BR/>"What goes up, always comes down."<BR/><BR/>That is so very far from the truth! If your statement were correct, then no one should ever buy a house until they are selling again for $30,000 or $40,000 like a great many did back in the early 70s. Also, the DOW would be down to something like 200 ... "what goes up only goes up further ... except for locked in mortgage payments" would be a more accurate saying.<BR/><BR/>And as for the "real estate agent" accusation. Don't you see how you're hurting your own credibility in making these kinds of baseless accusations?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151661610816437212006-06-30T06:00:00.000-04:002006-06-30T06:00:00.000-04:00I have a lot of trouble believing that there are 2...I have a lot of trouble believing that there are 20-40 renters for each available unit. That sounds to me like pure baloney.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151620946714605012006-06-29T18:42:00.000-04:002006-06-29T18:42:00.000-04:00Lance"Your lack of understanding of economics is l...Lance<BR/>"Your lack of understanding of economics is laughable"<BR/><BR/>That's because I was an EE major. I took 2 econ classes at WVU, all I remember is one instructor went to University of Pittsburgh (our rival) and the other instructor looked liked Nick Nolte.<BR/><BR/>"So, why do you think they had to pay a lot for the land? " <BR/><BR/>DUH! You don't have to be an ECON major to know why.<BR/><BR/>"Good luck waiting for the prices to collapse. "<BR/><BR/>I never said I was expecting a major price collaspe.<BR/><BR/>"It's 20 - 40 renters for each "for rent" ad placed in Craigslist."<BR/><BR/>I'm not too worried. All the apartments in Silver Springs are advertising. In my complex I see alot of empty units. <BR/><BR/>"I hope you own a waterproof tent?"<BR/><BR/>I don't see the need for a tent anytime soon. <BR/><BR/>If you have ever wondered why so many people have insulted you, take a look at your postings. If you still can't figure out why. Print some of your postings and take them to a therapist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151618309693997532006-06-29T17:58:00.000-04:002006-06-29T17:58:00.000-04:00wvu_84 said... ""That will just lower prices furth...wvu_84 said... <BR/>""That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases."<BR/><BR/>It's more than just the classic supply and demand. As Nathan Bloggs pointed out in another post, developers had to pay a premium on the land. It becomes "How low can they go" situation. How long can they can they keep prices up and afford invetory cost? It will be very interesting to track the prices over the course of several years. Personally I expect price declines but not anything major. Bankrupt developers is a possibility."<BR/><BR/>Your lack of understanding of economics is laughable. So, why do you think they had to pay a lot for the land? 'cause it's going DOWN in value? No, genius, it's cause like everything else related to real property it is going up! You just don't get it that the District of Columbia is experiencing a boom unlike any it has ever seen, do you? Are you holed up in some place like Silver Spring and you just don't get out to the city? If you can't see what is happening here then you are blind. Ditto if you don't see all the wealth pooring into this area and thus driving prices sky high. Good luck waiting for the prices to collapse. I hope you have a very long term lease on your home, you'll need it 'cause rents are what are starting to rise now. You think the rise in selling prices was something? Just wait till the rise in rents kicks in. Everyone I've been talking to says renters are desparate. It's 20 - 40 renters for each "for rent" ad placed in Craigslist. Rents are gonna go up up up! I hope you own a waterproof tent? ... and a little piece of land to put it on.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151600003513880902006-06-29T12:53:00.000-04:002006-06-29T12:53:00.000-04:00"That will just lower prices further as demand shr..."That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases."<BR/><BR/>It's more than just the classic supply and demand. As Nathan Bloggs pointed out in another post, developers had to pay a premium on the land. It becomes "How low can they go" situation. How long can they can they keep prices up and afford invetory cost? It will be very interesting to track the prices over the course of several years. Personally I expect price declines but not anything major. Bankrupt developers is a possibility.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151599397269215102006-06-29T12:43:00.000-04:002006-06-29T12:43:00.000-04:00You know the bulls are grasping for arguments when...You know the bulls are grasping for arguments when they quote an article that says "everthing is slowing but the most undesirable areas" and they base their entire argument for the entire market on that remaining smidgeon of growth.<BR/><BR/>Please consider - even as the waning popularity of cabbage patch dolls became obvious to most, there were still some people buying them up for their "resale value." Somebody has to be the last to get the memo, right? We now know who that is.John Fontainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246801870171720131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151598117175992412006-06-29T12:21:00.000-04:002006-06-29T12:21:00.000-04:00Lance,Glad to see they're flooding Washington DC w...Lance,<BR/><BR/>Glad to see they're flooding Washington DC with even MORE inventory! That will just lower prices further as demand shrinks and supply increases.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151591552393981882006-06-29T10:32:00.000-04:002006-06-29T10:32:00.000-04:00A Redskins fan: "I find it difficult to believe pr...A Redskins fan: <BR/>"I find it difficult to believe prices have risen almost 20% in those neighborhoods in the last six months. And anyway, I think Tatian was talking about 2005."<BR/><BR/>I'm not east of 16th but west of it, however I have been witnessing houses sell for astronomical amounts here in the last year. One 2 doors down from me sold last in May for some 45% more than I paid for mine in early 2005. (They have similar square footage.) Another one just around the corner sold last November for 22% more than mine. And this one was smaller than mine. And these aren't anomolies. The realtors like to send out postcards showing homes they've sold in the neighborhood, and from what I can see on these postcards, prices are definitely going up and not down. The District has so changed in the last 5 years that I can see why this is happening. 5 years ago, I would not have wanted to buy where I bought last year. Now, I can't imagine ever not having wanted to buy here.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151590141659253192006-06-29T10:09:00.000-04:002006-06-29T10:09:00.000-04:00I find it difficult to believe prices have risen a...I find it difficult to believe prices have risen almost 20% in those neighborhoods in the last six months. And anyway, I think Tatian was talking about 2005.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151589570052769322006-06-29T09:59:00.000-04:002006-06-29T09:59:00.000-04:00Redskins fan said:"I was refering to the Tatian co...Redskins fan said:<BR/>"I was refering to the Tatian comments about mysterious prices in some neighborhoods somewhere being higher. The article uses data only up through 2005."<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure why you think these neighborhoods are mysterious. The article specifically says "east of the Anacostia River" and "east of 16th St. NW". You may not live in DC and may have a hard time figuring out where this is geographically, but if you pull up a map, it should be pretty clear to you then where they are talking about.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151584737352859222006-06-29T08:38:00.000-04:002006-06-29T08:38:00.000-04:00lance-I was refering to the Tatian comments about ...lance-<BR/><BR/>I was refering to the Tatian comments about mysterious prices in some neighborhoods somewhere being higher. The article uses data only up through 2005. <BR/><BR/>On permits, I don't doubt construction is higher; that is bearish for prices.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151584242633881562006-06-29T08:30:00.000-04:002006-06-29T08:30:00.000-04:00Redskins fan -you will say anything to keep deludi...Redskins fan -<BR/><BR/>you will say anything to keep deluding yourself that there is a "bursting bubble." maybe if you spent more time working and less time trolling on the internet, you'd have money for a decent place.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151584160813426412006-06-29T08:29:00.000-04:002006-06-29T08:29:00.000-04:00anon said:"Repeat- even if Tatian is correct, he i...anon said:<BR/><BR/>"Repeat- even if Tatian is correct, he is talking about 2005."<BR/><BR/>Again: <BR/>""And the pace of new construction THIS YEAR is unabated. In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year." "<BR/><BR/>Also, yesterday I noticed there was a link from the article (on a side bar) to some District agency that tracks these matters and plans for growth. The answer to your question is probably in there. I doubt if it would be strictly for 2005 (i.e., not incorporationg any 2006 data), but even if it was ... what would that matter. According to those believing the bubble will occur in ALL highpriced markets throughout the US, the bubble started bursting LAST year ... over 12 months ago. IF that were the case, then neither prices nor buidling permits could have been "up" for the year now could they? (And the article specifically says THIS year regarding building permits AND quotes 2005, 2004, 2004, etc. building permit numbers.) No, there's no bubble in the Distirct at least. Maybe Dayton, Ohio or Frederick, MD .... but not the District of Columbia.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151583241226156632006-06-29T08:14:00.000-04:002006-06-29T08:14:00.000-04:00Lance-I just went and looked at the WaPo article, ...Lance-<BR/><BR/>I just went and looked at the WaPo article, and went to the article you cited. If it is the Summer 2006 issue (and I think it is), THE MOST RECENT DATA ARE FROM 2005.<BR/><BR/>Repeat- even if Tatian is correct, he is talking about 2005.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151583012214527572006-06-29T08:10:00.000-04:002006-06-29T08:10:00.000-04:00I'm skeptical about what that Tatian guy says. I'...I'm skeptical about what that Tatian guy says. I'd like to know which neighborhoods, how many homes, etc.<BR/><BR/>Inventory is way up across the DC metro area, (45,000+ homes for sale in May while only 9000+ sold), so I find it difficult to believe that many neighborhoods are seeing 18-20% sales price increases. Even if there are a few, I doubt they are typical.<BR/><BR/>Now if he means ASKING price increases, there is no limit to the fantasies housing bulls have, so maybe he is right.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151582255994393662006-06-29T07:57:00.000-04:002006-06-29T07:57:00.000-04:00I have a question... So is it like "which side wil...I have a question... So is it like "which side will the government choose?"... Will it honor the owners of RE or people who thought it was crazy? Would they keep the money flowing so the RE owners can stay put yet lowering the dollar (inflation?) of the unspent money of people who didn't get in the action... I have no idea how things work. They really have a choice on this matter don't they??Enlighten me please.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151581221108129362006-06-29T07:40:00.000-04:002006-06-29T07:40:00.000-04:00more from the Wash Post article:"Nearly all the ho...more from the Wash Post article:<BR/><BR/>"Nearly all the homes under construction this year and last have been condominiums or apartments, as opposed to single-family housing."<BR/><BR/>And despite what Taitan comments in the article, this is a GOOD thing. Having more condos in the District will lower the average and median selling prices of homes in DC because there will be more condos available in the housing mix, and condos are relatively cheaper than single family houses ... especially in urban environments where land is so expensive. This is "the market" doing its thing and doing it right. The only way we're going to get all the people who want to live in the District, into the District is to build more condos and apartment houses. In many cities (for example NYC), families really do live in condos/apartments. One doesn't always have the luxury of their own yard in an urban environment. That's why we have parks in the city.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151580765974868752006-06-29T07:32:00.000-04:002006-06-29T07:32:00.000-04:00more from the Wash Post article:"And the pace of n...more from the Wash Post article:<BR/><BR/>"And the pace of new construction this year is unabated. In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year."Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151580671007787702006-06-29T07:31:00.000-04:002006-06-29T07:31:00.000-04:00From the Wash Post article:"People who are talking...From the Wash Post article:<BR/><BR/><BR/>"People who are talking about a market cooling are focused on particular neighborhoods -- they're not seeing the big picture," said Peter Tatian, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, who analyzed home sales and new construction in neighborhoods throughout the city. "We see some signs of that in certain neighborhoods, like Ward 3. But in lots of parts of the city, we're still seeing strong price increases of 18, 19 percent."Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151580557244186872006-06-29T07:29:00.000-04:002006-06-29T07:29:00.000-04:00Anonymous said... "What bubble? Doubtfull the "dis...Anonymous said... <BR/>"What bubble? Doubtfull the "district" has "double digit" appreciation since those are NOT current figures. The lags show it flat."<BR/><BR/>read the story yourself:<BR/><BR/>www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062701480.htmlLancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151571479551702472006-06-29T04:57:00.000-04:002006-06-29T04:57:00.000-04:00What bubble? Doubtfull the "district" has "double ...What bubble? Doubtfull the "district" has "double digit" appreciation since those are NOT current figures. The lags show it flat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1151556323305655772006-06-29T00:45:00.000-04:002006-06-29T00:45:00.000-04:00John Fontain said... "David - looks like some of t...John Fontain said... <BR/>"David - looks like some of the posters who don't like the reality of the bursting bubble have taken to "clogging" your blog with nonsense in an attempt to avoid any meaningful, substantive discussion of the real issues. They clog then the complain when they get deleted (which is just more cloggging)."<BR/><BR/>John, First WHAT bubble is bursting? Don't you read the papers? Today's Wash Post had a headline story on how the developing parts of the District are doing double-digit appreciation and the other parts (upper NW) are still doing something like 7 - 8 % appreciation. These are the CURRENT figures. Also building permits for the year are being issued at a rate where this will be the year with the most building permits issued by far! Do you have you head in the sand or something, man? And as for clogging. I would say that just repeating a mantra that has yet to prove itself in even the smallest way is doing the very clogging you are referring too. Tell us something new ... like that the District is still experiencing double digit appreciation. Don't just repeat your mantra as if saying it enough times will suddenly make it true.<BR/><BR/>And to whoever posted in my name again ... VERY funny.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.com