tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post115461027540727837..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Dean Baker: The Coming Housing CrashDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger132125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154978633564362182006-08-07T15:23:00.000-04:002006-08-07T15:23:00.000-04:00This is really pathetic - all the name-calling. T...This is really pathetic - all the name-calling. The bottom line: <BR/><BR/>1. Median home prices ARE unaffordable for the median wage earner in many locations, including CA, FL, DC, NY, Boston, Philly.<BR/><BR/>2. In these locations, the real estate market HAS peaked. Inventories are way up, and those with the income to buy are not exactly thrilled with the idea of "catching a falling knife".<BR/><BR/>3. Many, many apartments went condo over the past 4 years. Too many, as they are now going back to apartments (I have one just up the street who was late to the game and has returned to it's original mission).<BR/><BR/>4. As a result of 1+2+3, rentals are UP, with a current supply shortage of moderately priced apartments. Upper priced rental homes are plentiful.<BR/><BR/>5. Lance needs to stop posting under other names (including anonymous, and va_investor). You bought a house recently, and you're a very angry individual. Let it go, man. Let it go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154972334684945042006-08-07T13:38:00.000-04:002006-08-07T13:38:00.000-04:00keith,Take a deep breath man. Why get so worked-u...keith,<BR/><BR/>Take a deep breath man. Why get so worked-up over this stuff. It's only money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154836053112909802006-08-05T23:47:00.000-04:002006-08-05T23:47:00.000-04:00By the way. I talked to a mortgage broker friend o...By the way. I talked to a mortgage broker friend of mine and asked him if borrowers had mainly used interest-only loans to supplement their equity from previous sales or if they used it as an affordability mechanism.<BR/><BR/> He said they used it as an affordability mechanism, and he's expecting a lot of foreclosures.<BR/> <BR/>Lance, you got nothing. You were talking out your a**, as usual. And you could've actually been a man and just admitted it, but instead you avoided the question and insulted me. And I've totally nailed you in your usual lies and bluster. You deserve every bit of abuse and scorn you get, you blowhard. You've thoroughly earned every insult, every cheap shot, and every mean spirited bit of nastiness thrown your way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154832725908684772006-08-05T22:52:00.000-04:002006-08-05T22:52:00.000-04:00keith, you asked earlier that I substantiate the f...keith, you asked earlier that I substantiate the fact the the number of people who bought with interest only loans AND financed 100% is not significant. sorry, it you that made the assertion that everyone who bought with an interest only loan in 2005 bought with nothing down. i presented you my case which showed what you were saying was not true ... definitely not everybody since I don't fit your "rule" ... Additionally, it is YOU that made this claim ... So, it is up to you to back it up with hard proof ... And not up to me to prove that it isn't ...Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154832382429221292006-08-05T22:46:00.000-04:002006-08-05T22:46:00.000-04:00anonymous said:"Anonymous said... Lance, the benef...anonymous said:<BR/>"Anonymous said... <BR/>Lance, the benefits of mortgage tax deduction applies to the portion of interest which exceeds standard deduction (~10K for married 5K for individual). Recalculate. And add 20% bracket as well."<BR/><BR/>No, they don't. We've been through this many time before on this blog. In brief, when you itemize you get a government estimate at what the average person would be deducting if they were itemizing for all deductible elements <I>except</I> housing related deductible expenses (eg mortgage interest and property taxes) and other deductible expense categories such as charitable contribution and medical deduction. When you itemize, you get the list ALL deductible expenses including the ones that the government otherwise "gives" you as part of the standard deduction PLUS those not included in that standard deduction such as home mortgage interest and property taxes. Your mistake is a common one. Most people who haven't studied tax make the same mistake because of the way the tax form is worded leaving the impression that it is an "either or situation" ... it is for which method you use, but NOT for the total deductions to which you are entitled.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154826445253697272006-08-05T21:07:00.000-04:002006-08-05T21:07:00.000-04:00Lance, the benefits of mortgage tax deduction appl...Lance, the benefits of mortgage tax deduction applies to the portion of interest which exceeds standard deduction (~10K for married 5K for individual). Recalculate. And add 20% bracket as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154802484233938272006-08-05T14:28:00.000-04:002006-08-05T14:28:00.000-04:00"keith, see your previous statement about how pers..."keith, see your previous statement about how personal anecdotes are irrelevant. Then throw everything you said about the Post article out the window. Why? because you are arguing that personal anecdotes are important."<BR/><BR/>A single anecdote is a sample of one. Multiple anecdotes are a larger sample. I will admit, however, that the Post article, in and of itself, would not constitute complete evidence of demand moving to the sidelines. Combine it, however, with the latest falling mortgage origination numbers and 100% higher YOY inventories and lower YOY asking prices and it does add up to smart money staying on the sidelines and renting.<BR/><BR/>Like I've said before, I do expect falling house prices and rising rents.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154801143806177212006-08-05T14:05:00.000-04:002006-08-05T14:05:00.000-04:00LOL!"Dignity and Class"?!?! On the internet?!, on ...LOL!<BR/><BR/>"Dignity and Class"?!?! On the internet?!, on a blog?!, using the name "DC_Too"!? <BR/><BR/>Hilarious!<BR/><BR/>See what I wrote about pining for the good old days...<BR/><BR/>"I long for the good old days of say, 1944, when people were wholesome and never had a bad word to say about anyone else, much less a bad deed to commit against their fellow man.."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154800882986105162006-08-05T14:01:00.000-04:002006-08-05T14:01:00.000-04:00keith said in another thread:"Lance, are you most ...keith said in another thread:<BR/><BR/>"Lance, are you most homebuyers? As the statisticians say: "An anecdote is a sample of one."<BR/><BR/>With this statement, keith confirms that personal anecdotes do not constitute reality.<BR/><BR/>Yet in this thread (see above), keith argues that a handful of anecdotes constitute the "fact" that "smart money is going into rent", all the while ignoring the very basis of this discussion: That rental inventory is tight.<BR/><BR/>That's it. That's all there is to it. One poster said that rents will go up. Another said that in his personal experience rents are going down, another asked for data, I posted the Post article that quantifies the fact that rental inventory is dropping. Done.<BR/><BR/>Yet the thread lives on because the Post presented a couple of personal anecdotes (which we've already concluded are not valid within the context of the larger discussion) about renting. Wheee! Personal anecdotes.<BR/><BR/>keith, see your previous statement about how personal anecdotes are irrelevant. Then throw everything you said about the Post article out the window. Why? because you are arguing that personal anecdotes are important.<BR/><BR/>Renters are looking for signs that validate their circumstances. Buyers are looking for signs that validate their circumstances.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154800412772192892006-08-05T13:53:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:53:00.000-04:00So DC2 left because he had too much dignity and cl...So DC2 left because he had too much dignity and class to deal with you, and you call that victory? The only thing I feel guilty about is wasting my time on this with some anonymous poster who clearly has emotional issues.<BR/><BR/>I'm really done with you, now. If you want to declare victory to make up for your deep-seated insecurities and inadequacies, then go ahead. I invite you to, because you are clearly very lonely and sad and need even an illusory victory to make up for your own feelings of failure.<BR/><BR/>DC2 owned you, and then he had the good sense to leave when you demonstrated your deep-seated psychological problems. And now I'm following that wise example. Have a good one, and, really, seek help. You still have a hope at a happy life if you get some help and work out your issues with a trained, professional therapist. Good luck.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154800109786798182006-08-05T13:48:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:48:00.000-04:00Yeah, the "N" word showed up and remained all day,...Yeah, the "N" word showed up and remained all day, but my comment abour your FEE ON SAYY was deleted within moments. What's that about?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154799935232156052006-08-05T13:45:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:45:00.000-04:00We're in a debate? About what? You jumped in whe...We're in a debate? About what? You jumped in when DC2 couldn't take it any more and dropped out.<BR/><BR/>Then you showed up. <BR/><BR/>So is it option 1, or 2? Or some hybrid of both?<BR/><BR/>Oh, and if you read DC2's comments, you'd see that he perpetually talks (talked? Is past tense more appropriate here?) about what a bad-ass urbanite he has always been. I doubt he'd show up on the corner that I mentioned. It's merely a question of putting up or shutting up. That's what did (he shut up) Your turn. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154799517311113532006-08-05T13:38:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:38:00.000-04:00You are unintentionally hilarious. You lost the de...You are unintentionally hilarious. You lost the debate twice in a row, so now you're down to 12-year-old stuff. You've been owned twice in front of everybody, and all you've done in response is make lamer and lamer insults. You're still mad that I totally nailed you with that crack that David deleted, and you're too inadequate to give up. Keep dancing, monkey.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154798657340374862006-08-05T13:24:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:24:00.000-04:00DC2, meet you on the SE corner of n.cap and N some...DC2, meet you on the SE corner of n.cap and N sometime soon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154798392418967162006-08-05T13:19:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:19:00.000-04:00Hey keith, 5 in 10 marriages end in divorce.Rememb...Hey keith, 5 in 10 marriages end in divorce.<BR/><BR/>Remember that stat on your third anniversary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154797729013924002006-08-05T13:08:00.000-04:002006-08-05T13:08:00.000-04:00I kicked DC2's ass because it was easy to do, keit...I kicked DC2's ass because it was easy to do, keith.<BR/><BR/>I'm also the guy who said you need to announce your pending nuptials to an audience of anonymous housing blog readers because either:<BR/><BR/>1) You're practicing for the pointless and fruitless arguments that will define your marrried years. or<BR/><BR/>2) Your latent homosexual tendencies compel you to prove to a bunch of strangers on a housing blog that you're <I><B> not </I></B> gay. <BR/><BR/>(Really, keith, no one was questioning your sexual orientation until you brought it up.)<BR/><BR/>Do you walk around the workplace now and say "my fi-AN-ce'" and I this" and "my fi-AN-ce' and I that" blah blah blah blah? Whoa everyboday, look at keith, he has a FEE-ONN-SAYYY" LOL!<BR/><BR/>Please, do reveal more about your personal life...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154794699664133632006-08-05T12:18:00.000-04:002006-08-05T12:18:00.000-04:00"That is NOT qualifying the messenger's experience..."That is NOT qualifying the messenger's experience and capability of giving good advice as anon is trying to do with DC_2."<BR/><BR/>Nope, the anon was stalking DC-2 because DC was totally owning them. The best part is the nutcase who said I'm DC2. Talk about paranoid!<BR/><BR/>Lance, you'll just have to face that there's plenty of bad behavior on both sides on these message boards. But you've so totally drunk the kool-aid that you can't acknowledge any obnoxious behavior on the part of the housinghead anonytrolls on these boards. That's yet another reason you have no credibility.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154759504993468142006-08-05T02:31:00.000-04:002006-08-05T02:31:00.000-04:00Please Ben, don't raise interest rates, I want to ...Please Ben, don't raise interest rates, I want to see the value of the dollar collapse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154728251374734252006-08-04T17:50:00.000-04:002006-08-04T17:50:00.000-04:00"According to the article, they put their money in..."According to the article, they put their money into rent, because buying right now is dumb."<BR/><BR/>So don't buy now, just enjoy the fact that you bought years ago and get on with your life.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154725289916333632006-08-04T17:01:00.000-04:002006-08-04T17:01:00.000-04:00"Let's see where people put their money ... "Accor..."Let's see where people put their money ... "<BR/><BR/>According to the article, they put their money into rent, because buying right now is dumb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154721069113136292006-08-04T15:51:00.000-04:002006-08-04T15:51:00.000-04:00A renter said:" So, once again, houseing heads are...A renter said:<BR/>" <I>So, once again, houseing heads are wrong rents arent going up</I><BR/><BR/>Someone else said that was unture.<BR/><BR/>One of the renters said:<BR/><BR/> "Data please "<BR/><BR/>And then the Post article appeared for the first time. <BR/><BR/>The data are in the Wash Post article. Along with some opinions of people who would rather rent than buy. Those opinions are worth... about as much as I pay read this blog.<BR/><BR/>It's all right there...just scroll up and read and it may register with you.<BR/><BR/>A Slanteyes FanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154706535259713232006-08-04T11:48:00.000-04:002006-08-04T11:48:00.000-04:00For 6 years, people were frantic to put their mone...For 6 years, people were frantic to put their money into housing.<BR/><BR/>Now, according to the article, they're putting their money into rent.<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154705943389616082006-08-04T11:39:00.000-04:002006-08-04T11:39:00.000-04:00Keith said... "Actually, opinions are important be...Keith said... <BR/>"Actually, opinions are important because they reveal where the demand is. I'm glad I can help you out with this."<BR/><BR/>Opinions come cheap and are a dime a dozen as we are witnessing on this blog! Let's see where people put their money ...Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154705734213643072006-08-04T11:35:00.000-04:002006-08-04T11:35:00.000-04:00Keith said... "Lance said:"When one seeks to discr...Keith said... <BR/>"Lance said:<BR/><BR/>"When one seeks to discredit the messenger, it shows that the message itself can't be discredited."<BR/><BR/>I guess that shows why the trolls went after DC_Too, eh?"<BR/><BR/>Keith, there's a difference between wanting to ensure the credibility of one's source and trying to discredit the messenger. I've freely answered questions posed about my experiences relevent to what I am discussing. DC_2 has not. I was also being labled a Realtor based on someone else's assertion ... without my being asked if I was a realtor as a means of making my motives suspicious. THAT is discrediting the messenger when you can't discredit the message. That is NOT qualifying the messenger's experience and capability of giving good advice as anon is trying to do with DC_2.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1154701398914791022006-08-04T10:23:00.000-04:002006-08-04T10:23:00.000-04:00You're just being mocked now "keith", I mean "DC T...You're just being mocked now "keith", I mean "DC Too", I mean Keith. No fun when you can easily be mocked, now is it?<BR/><BR/>Next you're going to revert to telling us about what a tough life-long urbanite you are..... Let's hear it....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com