tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post115543954002757758..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Pictures from San DiegoDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-2471941263722156172007-04-04T15:52:00.000-04:002007-04-04T15:52:00.000-04:00Bunch of Wusses. Sideline cry babies, that's prob...Bunch of Wusses. Sideline cry babies, that's probably how you deal with all events (wife, job..) in you lives.<BR/><BR/>Sorry bunch of babies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155959077698352842006-08-18T23:44:00.000-04:002006-08-18T23:44:00.000-04:00Those photo's tell a good story but, you should dr...Those photo's tell a good story but, you should drive around downtown San Diego....it's worse!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155671935169927822006-08-15T15:58:00.000-04:002006-08-15T15:58:00.000-04:00Speaking in terms of northern San Diego county pri...Speaking in terms of northern San Diego county prices on a large number of condo conversions are all ready falling. One that comes to mind first is a complex that began sales "from the high 200's" less than a year ago now selling "from the low 200's" talk about losing the shirt off your back. Having your property devalue almost 100k in a year is just too crazy for me.<BR/><BR/>That being said I'm a firm belever that RE isn't a bad investment. In the short term yes, but in the long term no. Values may come down, but they will go back up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155656793471447902006-08-15T11:46:00.000-04:002006-08-15T11:46:00.000-04:00www.cnn.com -> "Home Prices in Deep Freeze."LOL. ...www.cnn.com -> "Home Prices in Deep Freeze."<BR/><BR/><BR/>LOL. Soon bitter home-debtor Lance will be in foreclosure. Intelligent savvy bubbleheads will swoop in buy homes at 50% off 2005 prices. DC/NOVA realestate will be much cheaper in a few years. I hope we will see a large increase in realtor suicides.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155651415022205972006-08-15T10:16:00.000-04:002006-08-15T10:16:00.000-04:00My 213 cousins will be arriving soon. They and th...My 213 cousins will be arriving soon. They and their anchor babies will be able to occupy probably 9 or 10 of these new condos.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155649766793963332006-08-15T09:49:00.000-04:002006-08-15T09:49:00.000-04:00Yet for some reason inventory just doesn't go up. ...Yet for some reason inventory just doesn't go up. Weird.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155647501415107392006-08-15T09:11:00.000-04:002006-08-15T09:11:00.000-04:00If only Bush would announce a new program to appoi...If only Bush would announce a new program to appoint 52,000 new Schedule C GS-15s for those 52,000 new condos coming online in DC over the next 24 months. This thing could just fix itself.<BR/><BR/>JerkstoreAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155635196153717342006-08-15T05:46:00.000-04:002006-08-15T05:46:00.000-04:00Jerkstore, you bring it on yourself.Jerkstore, you bring it on yourself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155609094053301492006-08-14T22:31:00.000-04:002006-08-14T22:31:00.000-04:00So Lance went underground (anon.) to make his usua...So Lance went underground (anon.) to make his usual idiotic digs at others' alleged income. What restraint! Yet the conversation has turned, dear Lance...almost as if a metaphoric landlord has come into your psychological apartment while you were away, rummagin through your virtual "stuff." (Isn't the looming landlord thing your favorite boogeyman?) Ouch.<BR/><BR/>JerkstoreAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155607876308623192006-08-14T22:11:00.000-04:002006-08-14T22:11:00.000-04:00Keith: By the way, back here in DC. On HousingTrac...Keith: By the way, back here in DC. On HousingTracker, inventories have been flat for a month, and the median asking price has fallen $10,000, or about 2% over the past month.<BR/><BR/>It's not surprising that with all the condos becoming available that the median price of housing overall (or even for condos) has gone down in DC. These are mainly inexpensive (less than $500,000) condos coming on the market. It makes sense that their sheer numbers will lower the median selling price even if the prices on houses and luxury condos continue to go up. Like selling prices, median prices are determined on the margins.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155607855348419912006-08-14T22:10:00.000-04:002006-08-14T22:10:00.000-04:00The interesting fact about the falling asking pric...The interesting fact about the falling asking prices is it seems lately as if single family homes are actually a higher percentage of listings than a few months ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155607082515071842006-08-14T21:58:00.000-04:002006-08-14T21:58:00.000-04:00Inventory has been basically flat since May.Inventory has been basically flat since May.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155606942370522242006-08-14T21:55:00.000-04:002006-08-14T21:55:00.000-04:00By the way, back here in DC. On HousingTracker, in...By the way, back here in DC. On HousingTracker, inventories have been flat for a month, and the median asking price has fallen $10,000, or about 2% over the past month. So the question is, when do prices stop falling, and how far do they have to fall to get inventory back down to equilibrium?<BR/><BR/>And as far as the X-factor goes, will there be upward pressures on inventory over the Fall and into 2007 because of resetting ARMS?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155606073924767192006-08-14T21:41:00.000-04:002006-08-14T21:41:00.000-04:00"The point is that if lance terms $425K "cheap" th..."<BR/>The point is that if lance terms $425K "cheap" then he must concede that there is a price bubble because the demand for such housing simply cannot be sustained, given income levels."<BR/><BR/>Noooo ... he said it was cheap CONSIDERING WHAT YOU GET AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LOCATION.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155605712756359272006-08-14T21:35:00.000-04:002006-08-14T21:35:00.000-04:00Lance,Normally I like your posts that balance out ...Lance,<BR/><BR/>Normally I like your posts that balance out the "bubblehead mentality..."<BR/><BR/>While I will agree that San Diego has become much nicer (I spent a weekend in the downtown/gaslamp area). *MUCH* nicer. I belive that unlike downtown LA, there is a good chance of gentrification holding there.<BR/><BR/>However, to suggest buying into the poster child of the housing bubble... Please, tell me you were kidding. There are ways to be an optimist in this market and by all means share that knowlege...<BR/><BR/>But San Deigo is a train wreck in progress. I already have multiple coworkers with vacant condos who are desperately trying to sell. If they don't sell, they will go BK. If they rent, they'll go BK in a few years. <BR/><BR/>I don't ignore Lance as his counterpoint can be informative. We "bubbleheads" could be wrong. But... I'm not buying, I've sold all my stocks except for two that I think will hold out in a bad recession, etc.<BR/><BR/>But I am getting married! Luckily, my bride to be agrees with me that home prices are gong to drop and drop hard. (Otherwise, why are the same homes for sale *throughout* 2006??? There are a dozen we'd be happy with that are a bit overpriced... I'll wait for the forclosure sale.)<BR/><BR/>California is going to implode in this market. I cannot turn around at a dinner party without running into *muliple* people with investment properties.<BR/><BR/>Some are smart like VA_investor and are cash flow positive and just want to hold onto good long term cash flow positive properties that can be turned over to their children at low appraisal values (and have their prop 13 roll over). Some will do ok... Some will hang on and endure the pain... Most are going to the cleaners. <BR/><BR/>Southern California is going to get hammered in this downturn (to paraphrase Thornberg's comment on OC).<BR/><BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155602352711359552006-08-14T20:39:00.000-04:002006-08-14T20:39:00.000-04:00"I almost didn't notice this one lance: if $425K i..."I almost didn't notice this one lance: if $425K is "cheap" then how is an average SD household (probably making $70K, to be generous) able to afford to buy an average SD home?"<BR/><BR/>Why should these be affordable to average people?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155601706502897872006-08-14T20:28:00.000-04:002006-08-14T20:28:00.000-04:00Those numbers can't be right because they don't su...Those numbers can't be right because they don't support dc_too's preferred conclusion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155601275012482642006-08-14T20:21:00.000-04:002006-08-14T20:21:00.000-04:00How refreshing... buildings that aren't short, fat...How refreshing... buildings that aren't short, fat, and boring.<BR/><BR/>Why, oh why, haven't Arlington and Alexandria taken advantage of DC's antiquated building height limits to allow for taller buildings? I so wish they would. <BR/><BR/>A 50 story tower would be nice for once.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155593991411078782006-08-14T18:19:00.000-04:002006-08-14T18:19:00.000-04:00"By the way, this is the inflation calculator I us..."By the way, this is the inflation calculator I used. Any opinions on these things?<BR/><BR/>http://www.westegg.com/inflation/"<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>There are a several "official" calculators out there. Try this one:<BR/><BR/><BR/>http://www.minneapolisfed.org/Research/data/us/calc/index.cfm<BR/><BR/>I would be curious if any of the calculators can adjust for the change in the CPI computation that took place n the early 90s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155591838664121162006-08-14T17:43:00.000-04:002006-08-14T17:43:00.000-04:00By the way, this is the inflation calculator I use...By the way, this is the inflation calculator I used. Any opinions on these things?<BR/><BR/>http://www.westegg.com/inflation/<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155591745434817492006-08-14T17:42:00.000-04:002006-08-14T17:42:00.000-04:00D in DC,I would like to know the source of this ar...D in DC,<BR/><BR/>I would like to know the source of this article's numbers. As it stands, something doesn't seem right.<BR/><BR/>Assume there is no appreciation beyond inflation.<BR/><BR/>Then the 2006 price would be $493,000. That means that the inflation adjusted 1990 price would be $331,464.<BR/><BR/>This $331K price is nearly twice the amount of the inner VA suburb prices that averaged out at $174,616 in 1990. This latter number I can verify from NVAR: http://www.nvar.com/market/history.lasso.<BR/><BR/>To me, prices being nearly twice as expensive in DC versus the inner suburbs doesn't seem right. As I said, if I could find a source for DC housing prices that cover the 1990's this might make more sense.<BR/><BR/>If prices were in the $330K range in 1990 then perhaps there is no bubble.<BR/><BR/>My $0.02MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155588240005077862006-08-14T16:44:00.000-04:002006-08-14T16:44:00.000-04:00According to this article, home prices in Dupont, ...<I>According to this article, home prices in Dupont, adjusted for inflation, have increased from $493k in 1990 to 581k in 2006. This is a appreciation of inflation plus 1%.</I><BR/><BR/>That's actually almost right, if you figure a 16% total increase in that time span above and beyond the inflation rate. Which leads me to guess that the numbers are bogus, since such does not seem to be the case in other parts of DC or the metro area. BTW, exactly what do you get in Dupont for $581k these days? A nice cardboard box on the corner? I suspect that the price differential for the same unit then and now is much greater.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155587150518389022006-08-14T16:25:00.000-04:002006-08-14T16:25:00.000-04:00I just checked zip realty on my old unit... zillow...I just checked zip realty on my old unit... zillowing now for $530K and listed at $525K.<BR/><BR/>It appears he has installed granite countertops. heh<BR/><BR/>Ouch.<BR/><BR/>Unit MLS#066065503 3 stories UP, is going for $489,000 with better views.<BR/><BR/>Unit #066066816 has hardwood floors and is $455K, same floor! <BR/><BR/>and, double yikes...<BR/><BR/>Unit #066057486 is on the 10th floor with corner, sweeping views, same sq ft, wood floors. $525,000K<BR/><BR/>there are just pages and pages of these, doubt any of these will sell @ these prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155586886625862232006-08-14T16:21:00.000-04:002006-08-14T16:21:00.000-04:00Bubbleheads,Did any of you see the recent Post art...Bubbleheads,<BR/><BR/>Did any of you see the recent Post article about the changing of retail in Dupont Circle. <BR/><BR/>According to this article, home prices in Dupont, adjusted for inflation, have increased from $493k in 1990 to 581k in 2006.<BR/><BR/>This is a appreciation of inflation plus 1%. This is exactly the rate of apprectiation bubbleheads are always citing is "normal" and the same rate that the economist Schiller has found to be the 100 year norm.<BR/><BR/>So the question is, assuming the Post's numbers are correct, is there a bubble in Dupont?<BR/><BR/>And think before responding for once.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1155586519506401142006-08-14T16:15:00.000-04:002006-08-14T16:15:00.000-04:00The WSJ article:From Danielle DiMartino. “Many apo...The WSJ article:<BR/><BR/>From Danielle DiMartino. “Many apologists for the housing industry remain insistent that because house prices have never fallen on a national level, they never will. Actually, they already have. Since the fourth quarter, median home prices have fallen about 1 percent, according to data Goldman Sachs mined from the National Association of Realtors.”<BR/><BR/>I suspect that will only increase. And it will be nice to put that old adage to rest. Unfortunate that it took this type of bubble to do it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com