tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post116825969381747289..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Spring Will be No SaviourDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1169269830450458072007-01-20T00:10:00.000-05:002007-01-20T00:10:00.000-05:00anon 6:23Well said. Please consider getting a use...anon 6:23<BR/><BR/>Well said. Please consider getting a user name so we can tell who is posting (too many anon's are fear-mongers).<BR/><BR/>I'm in your situation, almost to a T. When I get married, if we lose either income, we're ok. Heck, we're effectively saving the larger income (so we can get a house when prices are more sane). <BR/><BR/>And there is that one odd thing... homeowners cannot save. In fact, there is a reason their savings rate is negative while renters have a positive savings rate.<BR/><BR/>But some will have no choice but to depart their areas. Too many companies are doing relocation plans. I know mine is... Would I say no? I don't know.<BR/><BR/>Again, well said,<BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168827835318624302007-01-14T21:23:00.000-05:002007-01-14T21:23:00.000-05:00Lance,You're absolutely right life IS a gamble, bu...Lance,<BR/><BR/>You're absolutely right life IS a gamble, but you'd better gamble when the odds are in your favor. That's why casino gambling is dumb, the house is always favored even if it's only .51 they are always favored. Calculate your risk/reward ratio and then let the chips fall where they may. I gave you gobs of stats and #s why the house is favored now. All you give me is fear-mongering. I give you real life situations and you just tell me that I need to gamble.<BR/><BR/>I'm sorry but I win right now. Sure I don't live in the nicest place, sure rent could go up at lease renewal time, sure they could sell, sure I would LOVE to buy a place. <BR/><BR/>But I win right now, b/c I have something that the vast majority of recent homeowners do not have. I have peace-of-mind. I know that if my wife quits working, I don't worry about where are next payment will come from. I am living sufficiently below my income to save loads of cash. My rent is low enough and I've saved(ing)/investing enough that I could quit work and be fine for a year. I have peace-of-mind that when I have kids, my wife will be able to quit work and spend good quality-time help raising the kids-and we won't have to worry about the shoes, the payment, etc. Why is that . . . b/c I could do it right now if I so chose. And I have peace-of-mind that when I do buy (and believe me I WILL buy a house), it will be something I can afford, put %20 down, 30 year fixed, pay for it with my 1 income and have money left over for the family.<BR/><BR/>How many people out there live paycheck to paycheck, have their credit cards maxed or always carry a balance-use IO loans, buy more than they can afford, absolutely must have 2 incomes to afford their lifestyle? <BR/><BR/>Sure price can go up, but if they do they go up for everyone. The only way to capitalize is to move out of the area, either that or speculate. Not every homeowner wants or needs to be a speculator. When did buying a house go from buying a house to speculating on a house. I will buy when it makes financial sense and its the right time, no sooner no later, if it never makes financial sense , well oh well big flipping deal. Life ISNT about money.<BR/><BR/>I'm a patient man and buying a house while favorable isn't the end all be-all of life, some of the happiest people I've ever met in my entire life lived within their means in tiny little wooden or cinder block shacks in Argentina. I have found that in life I am the happiest when I live without worries. <BR/><BR/>Right now I live without worry socking money away preparing for bigger things, if I bought a house right now I couldn't do that.<BR/><BR/>Again I quote actual stats and values, all I get back is fear-mongering.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168718333126307082007-01-13T14:58:00.000-05:002007-01-13T14:58:00.000-05:00Glad to finally find a DC-area blog... My wife and...Glad to finally find a DC-area blog... <BR/><BR/>My wife and are renting and want to buy a house inside the beltway. We make just shy of 200k, and NO creative financing *could* comfortably afford a 550k "starter" home. TONS of houses around this price are streaming onto the market every day now... <BR/><BR/>Whether its winter for spring - what first time buyers can rationalize buying a 550k starter home? I don't get it...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168645639560722912007-01-12T18:47:00.000-05:002007-01-12T18:47:00.000-05:00Anon 6:26,Life is ALWAYS a gamble. And not buying...Anon 6:26,<BR/><BR/>Life is ALWAYS a gamble. And <I>not buying</I> is in my opinion a much larger gamble than buying. Put in the most simplest and briefest of terms. It's far more financially conservative to lock in a known and determined amount today than to take a chance that monthly costs will be lower in the future. It's your choice, but you are without doubt taking the riskier course. NO ONE has a crystal ball to tell what either prices or interest rates will do in the future. Your gambling may pay off ... and it may not. As for your fears of unemployment etc., those same concerns would be there irrespective of house prices, interest rates, etc. Those are the same fears all homeowners --- even those 10 years ago --- have always faced. You need to weigh these fears against the unknown which you are apparently not fearing ... but really have more of a reason to fear. The chances of your being unemployed for an extended period of time are far less than the chances of housing prices going up over time. There was an article in the Post the other day about how something like the birdflu really scares people and gets their attention, but the fact of the matter is that people should be far more afraid of getting cancer or other "mundane" diseases which kill far more people and are far more likely to strike. Yes, the birdflu is far more dramatic and thus scarrier, but it's also far less likely to happen ... As is your being longterm unemployed. Good luck whatever you decide to do.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168639146758530812007-01-12T16:59:00.000-05:002007-01-12T16:59:00.000-05:00"I call BS on that. You see you explained the prob..."I call BS on that. You see you explained the problem. 5 years ago you COULD buy a place on the 75k salary. Take the GS scale (since most things are tied to the gov. here). A GS12-10 made 84559 in 06, in 01 they made 69,099. An increase of 15k or an increase of 22%. So a GS12 salary increased 22%, yet you're main expense (i.e. your home) increase over 100%, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. "<BR/><BR/>Well said Anonymous...<BR/><BR/>I am in a very similar situation. I am in my mid 20's and about to get promoted to a GS-12. My wife is a brand new CPA and is making good money...<BR/><BR/>We have been married almost a year and are coming up on the end of our lease... but we aren't going to buy. <BR/><BR/>I make good money. She makes good money. Together we are making well over six figures... and we can barely pay for(not afford) the cheapest starter homes in the area. <BR/><BR/>That, along with the economic fundamentals, is what makes me confident prices will come down. If we can't afford to buy a house here than the core of DC's population can't afford to either. <BR/><BR/>Sure... if you happened to get into the market 5 years ago you are fine... but no new buyers can enter the market anymore. <BR/><BR/>The other people my age or younger are generally coming to the same conclusion I have. We can't get priced out of the market, we ARE the market. <BR/><BR/>We have hit the ceiling... and are starting to sink again. We are going to keep an eye on things and plan on buying in 12-18 months, assuming prices have stopped the rapid drops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168612006364709132007-01-12T09:26:00.000-05:002007-01-12T09:26:00.000-05:00I call BS on that. You see you explained the prob...I call BS on that. You see you explained the problem. 5 years ago you COULD buy a place on the 75k salary. Take the GS scale (since most things are tied to the gov. here). A GS12-10 made 84559 in 06, in 01 they made 69,099. An increase of 15k or an increase of 22%. So a GS12 salary increased 22%, yet you're main expense (i.e. your home) increase over 100%, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Sure I'd be fine if I moved here in 01 bought a home no prob. cuz then the increased equity, increase housing prices, etc. But what allowed me to get in the market in the first place . . . something I could afford. And note in 01 I wouldn't have had to use crazy financing, I could have easily gotten a fixed 30 year no prob-- without stretching my budget. That same GS12 now can't get into the market unless he does something crazy like an interest-only. You say a young family, yes I am, but I quoted you med. income What about have the joe schmos who are below the med. They are in a worst bind. And a 5 year interest only, that's about the dumbest idea I've heard in a while. So I'm not putting any equity into the house, I'm borrowing money from the bank, hoping and praying that my house will increase in price or that I will earn more in the future. <BR/><BR/>So I am gambling on my future. If I put no equity into the home and then lose my job and sell it I'm out unless housing prices go up. If I bought last year, I'm down 5-10% already, on a 400k that's already 40k I'm out, and b/c I'm so highly leveraged, that's 40k I'm really in the hole. So if it averages 5% a year increases that takes me two years to break even. That's three years, so I get transferred now w/ selling costs etc. I'm still in the hole. At 7% increase in 2 years I'd just be breaking even in money terms not real value since inflation eats away at least 3-4% a year (if you can believe the gov.) So now 3 years later, I'm stuck. <BR/><BR/>You talk about tax savings of 700 a month. Hmm, I can rent for 1k/month. 2350-1000=1350>700. Besides the fact that I'm NOT highly leveraged. I'm socking that 1350 away to save up for a nice down-payment so I don't have to be highly leveraged. What did you people do . . . fail algebra in HS? Shoot I'll give you the 700/month in tax savings. Now don't forget since I own a home, I have taxes-on 350k that's an additional 3.5k a year- wow so that's approx. 300 a month in taxes 700-300=400 in my pocket. But now since I own the place don't forget housing expenses to repair the place, etc. Oh yeah let's tac on another 150-200 for HOA/Condo fees, so now I'm only getting 200 more a month. Hmm yeap 1350>200. <BR/><BR/>There was a GOOD reason that for a good 50+ years the rule of thumb was to pay no more than 2-3x your income on a house, let’s take 2.5x --hmm 80kx2.5=200k or in 01 2.5x70=175k—oh my goodness med. home value in (prince William) 2001~150-175k, wwwwwoooooowwwwww, that's something that one could actually afford, not be a slave and pay 50% income to a house, and have plenty left over for vacation, extra stuff etc--hmm, people actually knew how to do math 10 years ago. <BR/><BR/>Buying something on what I think I can afford in the future is the DUMBEST idea. Buying on what I CAN afford now is the smart way. Just like I never use a credit card unless I can pay it off right now. Credit is nice b/c you get added benefits for returns and warrenty etc. but if I can't take from my savings and pay it now, I ain't buying it. A car and house are different, b/c at least I can sell it if I get in a bind. But again I buy what I can afford now not later. <BR/><BR/>You explained tax benefits, but with simple math I showed how that is just bunk. 1350>200. I take that extra 1150, put it in the bank, we shall play it on the extreme safe side and just put it in a saving account and not invest in a money market etc. I can get 5% savings rate. Hmm, 5% guaranteed, or take the money and put it for a house that might get 5% over the next 2 years. But now if I do like you suggest and get an IO, hmm oh yeah I'm not investing any money I'm just renting from the bank. If I'm smart, I take the money I save instead of buying now leveraging myself to the hilt. <BR/><BR/>Oh and don't think I'm risk adverse, I take a small amount each month and invest/play/study in the commodities market. But as my wise dad says you don't play/risk money you're not afraid to lose. The small amount in commodities (all mini's--I don't play with the big boys) is something I’m not worried about, it I lose it fine, if not fine. I'm sorry I'm not going to gamble my future on the biggest expense of my life. <BR/><BR/>I would LOVE to buy a house-not much else material wise- I really care for at this point-everything else is just peachy. But it just doesn't make financial sense. The ONLY way I can afford to buy is if my wife also works full-time. Sure for right now that's fine, but with kids . . . put kids in a day-care-sorry not the life I want to live--why have kids if I loan them to someone else for them to take care of. Remember I quoted med. FAMILY income, I as a young family, do better than the med. how does the fam. who makes 60k/year do it. Is everyone an engineer/lawyer/real estate. What about the manager of the quickimart, the bookstore, the clothing store, etc,..<BR/><BR/>I will buy when either my earning power has increased or prices have gone down enough for me to justify the expense and for it to make sense-when I don't have to pay %50 of my income to be a slave to a house, when I can buy at 2-3x my income. Why it's got to come down, b/c I'm the avg. or above the avg. and I CANT get my foot in the door, unless I gamble on my future.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168610611202882992007-01-12T09:03:00.000-05:002007-01-12T09:03:00.000-05:00Lance said... "Why not consider a 5 year interest ...Lance said... "Why not consider a 5 year interest only which will allow you to either lower the payments or buy more house..."<BR/><BR/>Your exotic arm advice is terrible. Many good people are losing there homes due to advice like yours. You had mentioned before, you father was a real estate agent, sounds like you learned the trade well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168580540973754452007-01-12T00:42:00.000-05:002007-01-12T00:42:00.000-05:00Anon:7:08 PM, Your comment is very true. People ne...Anon:7:08 PM,<BR/> <BR/>Your comment is very true. People need to open their eyes before buying homes beyond their means.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168578961097449532007-01-12T00:16:00.000-05:002007-01-12T00:16:00.000-05:00Anon,Good analysis, 'cept you didn't take into acc...Anon,<BR/><BR/>Good analysis, 'cept you didn't take into account tax savings due to deductibility of all mortgage interest and property taxes. To get a ballpark idea of that just multiply your total mortgage interest and property taxes by your incremental federal AND state tax rates. For example, it might be that you are in the 25% bracket for the feds and the 8% bracket for Virginia (these are the percentage upon which your highest bucket of pay is taxed. Why that and not the lowest? ... Because it is that one which will be removed from your liability as you reduce your liability with deductible expenses.) So, in our example, that is 33% OFF of the interest part of your mortgage interest. For the first 20 years or so of your payment, it is mainly interest. Let's assume you start off with 90% interest on average for the first 5 years ... That means that $2,115 is interest and $698 is your tax benefit ... leaving you a payment of $1,652. And you can take the tax benefit now (i.e., not wait till the end of the year to get it back) just by changing your exemption form to reflect the new anticipated deductions. I don't know if that $700 makes a difference or not to you ... but it's a lot. Also, if you are a young family (and so it seems from the relatively low family income you are quoting), you can expect to have your income increase significantly in the next 5 years ... Why not consider a 5 year interest only which will allow you to either lower the payments or buy more house ... Personally though, I wouldn't advise using this to buy more than you need. However, if it will get you into a house that really does meet your needs, and you are in a position to know with a fair amount of certainty that you will be earning more within 5 years, there is absolutely nothing wrong with following this route. Alternatively, you can just wait and see if the "1 - 12% addition declines" that David is predicting will materialize ... IMHO, that small and very unsure "discount" wouldn't much influence me. I'd know that just by thoroughly searching and good negotiating that I could find myself a "1 - 12" discount without depending on the varaies of the market and "timing it right."Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168571296264354662007-01-11T22:08:00.000-05:002007-01-11T22:08:00.000-05:00Lance and those who think it won't go down,To me i...Lance and those who think it won't go down,<BR/><BR/>To me it's just simple math and adding up expenses. We will use ball park numbers to keep things easy. Let's take an avg. income in Prince William County, which is roughly 73,796 --families w/ children from www.homefinders.com We will be generous and boost that to 80k. So that is roughly 4333 a month in take home, we'll be generous again and boost that to 4500 a month. So let's add up some normal expenses and see what we get. Car payment: most likely 350 range, we'll say 300. Vehicle expenses, cost of gas wear and tear on vehicle, drive 25 miles to work-say 1500 miles a month say 24 mpg *~$2.5 a gallon, roughly 160 in gas, plus wear and tear roughly 200 in other auto expenses. This is one car mind you, but if you have a fam. you prob. have 2 so we'll say one vehicle is paid off so prob. another 100 in car expense a month. So that's 500 in auto. Say this is a good christian family and they tithe, that's 450 a month ~ prob. closer to 500 with charity etc. Food: for 2 people it will cost roughly 300-so we will keep it simple at 300-that's if you don't eat out. If you have any financial sense at all you will be saving money so say %10 savings, another 450. Bills: phone, electric, gas, internet, cable-roughly 200. If you had smarts you prob. went to school and are still paying back student loans do not pass go add another 250. Alright that's:<BR/>Auto: 500<BR/>Bills: 200<BR/>Student Loans: 250<BR/>Saving: 450<BR/>Tithe/Charity/Misc: 450<BR/>Food: 300<BR/>So before you can spit you've spent 2150.<BR/>Now I realize that a lot of people don't tithe so I won't through in Misc expense-I'll say that will take place of little johnny needs a new pair of shoes, school supplies, etc. etc. So from my 4500-2150 the MAX I can pay a month is 2350. That means the most I could get on a mortgage is roughly 350k. Using the recent MRIS stats, the Avg. price was 404k and the Median was 370k. You say that's close . . . yeah right. That's just what it costs to live. We haven't calculated in any additional cost like daycare, spending nights out, going to movies, oh and big one furniture appliances, etc. You are living on the edge. One bad slip, and fuiste (gone in spanish). Remember most people prob. don't save but spend that 10% on misc. expenses mentioned. It doesn't make sense. Why would anyone want to live here med. income family 73k avg. home 400k, when I can go to Forsyth Co. GA (suburb of ATL) med. income family 74k avg. home 200k. Oh but DC is better b/c b/c . . . . . traffic. Sooner or later something has to change. The only thing that holds me here is that I really love my job, but the more out of whack things become, the less that matters-that or I'll find a transfer somewhere else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168569192832867292007-01-11T21:33:00.000-05:002007-01-11T21:33:00.000-05:00"Oh, I've heard a partial list of the areas under ..."Oh, I've heard a partial list of the areas under consideration. All have 4 star restaurants/hotels at a minimum. All would be attractive for educated professionals."<BR/><BR/>So why don't you just go now and shut up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168565150595333342007-01-11T20:25:00.000-05:002007-01-11T20:25:00.000-05:00Yeah, it sounds like you're working for a really g...<I> <BR/>Yeah, it sounds like you're working for a really good company. </I><BR/><BR/>Actually, its a great company. Its not the upper management who wants to move. Its the rank and file who want off the crazy tredmill. And not everyone will have to. They are trying to predict how many wish to move out of state. If they don't offer enough transfers... those left behind are resentfull. If they move too many, they get the situation you describe. Since the moving package is quite generous...<BR/><BR/>Its impossible to raise rates fast enough to match the cost of living increase. No customer would accept the price increase. While the CEO would stay put... its the division President who is driving the studies on moving. He has to go with us.<BR/><BR/>So yes... I cannot lose. :)<BR/><BR/>As to using me? I'm not sure what you implied by that. I've worked in three states so far pursuing better employment. If my employer ever really "used" me, I'd switch companies. <BR/><BR/>Let's face it, entire industries have been priced out of San Jose, Long Island, New York City, Los Angeles, etc. Its probably just time for DC, LA, Boston, and many other cities to accept that home prices have locked out some of the old industries. Cest la vie.<BR/><BR/>Oh, I've heard a partial list of the areas under consideration. All have 4 star restaurants/hotels at a minimum. All would be attractive for educated professionals. We'll do ok. :) This wouldn't be the first corporate move I participated in. :( The last time I moved with the job, served my two years (to retain the transfer bonus) and then left. Since I was a renter, no muss and fuss. Also, it was an easy clean exit on exceptionally good terms (with the old company). <BR/><BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168563136255325742007-01-11T19:52:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:52:00.000-05:00The guys at Contraryinvestor.com hear us in the ha...The guys at Contraryinvestor.com hear us in the hallway, laughing and talking about this housing thing, and they came out of their office just as I was wondering if, and how soon, mortgage equity withdrawal would start up again so that consumers could increase their spending again. While they did not actually say “In your dreams, you stupid Mogambo butthead (SMB)”, they said the same thing by noting that using “housing starts” as a proxy for the mortgage market/real estate sector, “The average cyclical peak-to-trough decline in starts historically spanned a 46-month time frame. The shortest contraction on record over the past 45 years was twenty-eight months. Can it really be that the current down cycle is done after only eleven months? We think not.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty011007.html" REL="nofollow"> The Mogambo Guru </A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168562041693662182007-01-11T19:34:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:34:00.000-05:00Amazing..Lance is RIGHT!"Thirty-two percent of all...Amazing..Lance is RIGHT!<BR/><BR/>"Thirty-two percent of all vacation-home owners and 24 percent of investment owners paid cash for their property. Combined with mortgages that have been paid-off, 82 percent of vacation homes and 75 percent of investment properties are owned free and clear."<BR/><BR/>from NRA and Govt Sources<BR/><BR/>AMAZING...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168561644856112122007-01-11T19:27:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:27:00.000-05:00"One doesn't truly own until the mortgage is paid ..."One doesn't truly own until the mortgage is paid off. This is true. Aferall, who seizes the home when you stop paying mortgage? The bank. Once you own you stop paying mortgage and the bank."<BR/><BR/>Right, but even after that if you stop paying taxes, the state takes the house. So by your logic, there is no ownership. Which is silly. I can exclude any person, including your landlord, from my home. You don't have that luxury because you live in somebody else's house.<BR/><BR/>In any event, I'm not going to stop paying what I agreed to pay for the place, so your fantasy of my eviction never comes to pass. If, by contrast, your landlord decides he doesn't want you there anymore, you're out. Now, which of us has a home and which of us is living by the good grace of others?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168560773950619222007-01-11T19:12:00.000-05:002007-01-11T19:12:00.000-05:00"Yeah, it sounds like you're working for a really ..."Yeah, it sounds like you're working for a really good company. Costs of living goes up and what do they do? Move you to a less-desirable (and thus "cheap") place. It doesn't sound like you have much leverage with them if you'd be forced to leave behind everything and everybody you know just so that they don't have to increase your wages to match increasing prices. I bet they've increased their going prices/rates though to match what's going on out there. Actually, the more I think about it, the clearer it becomes that they are just using you. I bet the CEO won't be moving with you to that God-forsaken podunk they want to move you to. Yeah, he'll be here enjoying a nice 5 star restaurant meal (and the savings from moving you) while you are down there with the rednecks and pick up trucks eating lunch at a drive in! "<BR/><BR/>Wow lance... that is easily one of the stupidest posts I have seen you put up in a long while, and that is saying something.<BR/><BR/>You think everywhere without a real estate bubble is a "god forsaken podunk"? <BR/><BR/>What do you think DC was 5 years ago? <BR/><BR/>Keep on believing believing your own BS... seriously... but I can tell you for sure that my friends who live in a half dozen lovely mid sized cities across the country that have no interest at all in living where you do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168553995878553862007-01-11T17:19:00.000-05:002007-01-11T17:19:00.000-05:00Neil said:"The best part is I cannot lose holding ...Neil said:<BR/>"The best part is I cannot lose holding off buying. If prices continue to go up, my company will relocate 10,000+ jobs (including mine) to a lower cost of living area."<BR/><BR/>Yeah, it sounds like you're working for a really good company. Costs of living goes up and what do they do? Move you to a less-desirable (and thus "cheap") place. It doesn't sound like you have much leverage with them if you'd be forced to leave behind everything and everybody you know just so that they don't have to increase your wages to match increasing prices. I bet they've increased their going prices/rates though to match what's going on out there. Actually, the more I think about it, the clearer it becomes that they are just using you. I bet the CEO won't be moving with you to that God-forsaken podunk they want to move you to. Yeah, he'll be here enjoying a nice 5 star restaurant meal (and the savings from moving you) while you are down there with the rednecks and pick up trucks eating lunch at a drive in!Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168553465724239642007-01-11T17:11:00.000-05:002007-01-11T17:11:00.000-05:00bollenger said... "VA,"I thought at least 40% own ...bollenger said... <BR/>"VA,<BR/>"I thought at least 40% own free and clear?"<BR/><BR/>Show me up to date data that supports the above statement."<BR/><BR/>I have posted the link for this at least 3 or 4 times. I am not going to do it again. You can either check the archives or just do some googling for yourself. And btw, we also learned that 3/4 of all non-primary residences (i.e., second homes and houses/condo rented out) are owned free and clear. And THAT included the flipper properties that so many of you are so waiting in vain to see appear on the rental market.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168553295214554382007-01-11T17:08:00.001-05:002007-01-11T17:08:00.001-05:00DC DECADE said... "One doesn't truly own until the...DC DECADE said... <BR/>"One doesn't truly own until the mortgage is paid off."<BR/><BR/>Oops! I forgot to ask the bank if I could paint the walls ... or have a dog! ... No, wait, isn't that the kind of stuff your tenants have to do?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168547931958401422007-01-11T15:38:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:38:00.000-05:00Neil,If 3 out of 4 of your friends are in serious ...<I> <BR/>Neil,<BR/><BR/>If 3 out of 4 of your friends are in serious mortgage trouble, I suggest you meet some more astute friends. </I><BR/><BR/>Their problem is they bought in the last 3 years. 75% of the people who bought in the last three years really cannot afford the mortgage they took out. Cest la vie. <BR/><BR/>anon said <I> Anyway, are any of your predictions based on evidence or just your gut instinct? </I><BR/>What? We've been showing statistic after statistic on this blog, OCrenters, and others. <BR/><BR/>Any normal non-dimensionalized statistic says we're in trouble:<BR/>price to income<BR/>price to rent<BR/>mortgage payments to income<BR/>income growth (or lack of it...)<BR/>RE investment as a fraction of wealth<BR/>House inventory to monthly sales (NoVa, Florida, and Phoenix compete to be in the worst shape)<BR/>Fraction of mortgages that reset in 2007 and 2008 to 60%+ higher montly payments (and the refinancing options are constantly shrinking).<BR/><BR/>There is a reason that all of the statistics based real estate sites are bearish! Think about that. Please, show me one bullish real estate site with a variety of statistical charts normalized to the historically important non-dimensional numbers. Please! I promise I'll review it. <BR/><BR/>Fact is that the numbers are just plain ugly. Uglier than they have bene since the 1930's. <BR/><BR/>Florida is repeating 1926 in the next two years. Do you really think that won't impact DC home values? So-Cal is going to tank too.<BR/><BR/>The best part is I cannot lose holding off buying. If prices continue to go up, my company will relocate 10,000+ jobs (including mine) to a lower cost of living area. If home prices drop, I was smart to wait. :) Heck, 2,700 jobs in my industry are scheduled to leave my area in the next six months. <BR/><BR/>Its different this time... American's lack their traditional savings to ride out a decline. Cest la vie.<BR/><BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168547000146427312007-01-11T15:23:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:23:00.000-05:00"Show me up to date data that supports the above s..."<BR/>Show me up to date data that supports the above statement. "<BR/><BR/>Ah, a false burden-shifting argument. Brilliant. If you have data, show it. If you don't, be quiet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168546947435440892007-01-11T15:22:00.000-05:002007-01-11T15:22:00.000-05:00"One doesn't truly own until the mortgage is paid ..."One doesn't truly own until the mortgage is paid off. "<BR/><BR/>By your logic, one can never truly own - the state has the right to seize the property at any time through its eminent domain powers and it can also make all manner of regulations regarding how you can use your property.<BR/><BR/>But that's not how most people think of ownership. Ownership is, in my world, the right to exclude all others from the premises absent a court order or exigent law enforcement or other emergency circumstances. People who buy have that right; people who rent do not. This is one of many rights a tenant does not have. That's why most people prefer to buy, despite the fact that the up-front costs are higher (though, in the long run, owning is cheaper too).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168542262111729622007-01-11T14:04:00.000-05:002007-01-11T14:04:00.000-05:00VA,"I thought at least 40% own free and clear?"Sho...VA,<BR/>"I thought at least 40% own free and clear?"<BR/><BR/>Show me up to date data that supports the above statement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168538622376700062007-01-11T13:03:00.000-05:002007-01-11T13:03:00.000-05:00""Can you afford a townhouse yet?"Depends on which...""Can you afford a townhouse yet?"<BR/><BR/>Depends on which neighborhood in the DC area and the size of the townhouse. "<BR/><BR/>Probably explains why you're still angry. Anyway, are any of your predictions based on evidence or just your gut instinct?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1168538277900209172007-01-11T12:57:00.000-05:002007-01-11T12:57:00.000-05:00"Can you afford a townhouse yet?"Depends on which ..."Can you afford a townhouse yet?"<BR/><BR/>Depends on which neighborhood in the DC area and the size of the townhouse.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.com