tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post2326366258353981595..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: No Spring Bounce in The Bubble MarketsDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-48663098665556943932007-04-04T10:04:00.000-04:002007-04-04T10:04:00.000-04:00The only thing positive about housing these days i...The only thing positive about housing these days is the falling dollar that allows rich foreigners to buy cheaper. I will just move to somewhere foreigners aren't buying. Simple - and I'd rather live around Americans anyhow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-43783128209490079282007-04-03T17:30:00.000-04:002007-04-03T17:30:00.000-04:00Since 1997 I have lived in northern VA Just outsid...Since 1997 I have lived in northern VA Just outside Fairfax Co. in a very respectible and sought after community.<BR/>I have watched T.Hs escalate in price from mid $100K to a peak of $425K for several T.Hs in 2005.<BR/>In the spring of 06 more than 5 T.Hs were for sale on my street, there they sat for the better part of a year,asking prices of between 380-390K after many reductions later, they are listed for 329-340K the last 2 have just sold this year. My next door neighbor just put his T.H. on the market and has listed it for $315K he wants a quick sale. In 05 he would have easily received $380K inside a month.<BR/>My question is this, 1990-91 housing in the Wash-metro area was flat for 7 years,after a 15-20% decline. How many people would be willing to mortgage $500K payments of $3300-$3900w/tax for 60+ months spending over $234K and not making a dent in their mortgage, all of it going to the bank, were is the value in that? One last thought, Japans R.E. has declined for over 15 ys straight, they have more people than land and rates were .25% for many years, every bubble in history,Fla,RE 1920s, Tulip Bubble 1600s, Stock M 1929,Nasdaq 2000 etc, have all deflated to pre bubble prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-26733173367496410032007-03-28T09:56:00.000-04:002007-03-28T09:56:00.000-04:00"Just leave..."Again..."Just leave..."<BR/><BR/>Again...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-62920998235459957572007-03-27T23:18:00.000-04:002007-03-27T23:18:00.000-04:00Va_Invewstor,You didn't add anything to the discus...Va_Invewstor,<BR/><BR/>You didn't add anything to the discussion. What's the point of attacking other people presenting FACTS? Looks immature. Just leave...<BR/><BR/>B747Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-15456078437815864832007-03-27T07:49:00.000-04:002007-03-27T07:49:00.000-04:00"How about you opening your eyes to the data Keith..."How about you opening your eyes to the data Keith was kind enough to track down for ya’ on your row houses with “huge” increases?"<BR/><BR/>Lance doesn't need to struggle to find data. Read the quote of his in your post. He looked at a "couple" of these houses personally just days ago!<BR/><BR/>Without a doubt he will shortly post the data that supports his assertion. The only alternative afterall would be for him to admit he was lying again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-82200353212528539522007-03-27T07:46:00.000-04:002007-03-27T07:46:00.000-04:00"Stay tuned, up next “Lance” and Va will be analyz..."Stay tuned, up next “Lance” and Va will be analyzing belly button lint for market indicators. "<BR/><BR/>That is pretty unlikely. They would have to pull their heads out first.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-44938763019823567462007-03-27T07:44:00.000-04:002007-03-27T07:44:00.000-04:00"Sorry Keith, you're the freak ...Not Va_Investor...."Sorry Keith, you're the freak ...Not Va_Investor."<BR/><BR/>Hey lance... you forgot to post the data that shows "average rowhouses" in the district have gone from $1 million to $2 million in the last 12 months. <BR/><BR/>Don't worry though, we will keep reminding you. <BR/><BR/>I wouldn't want you to miss your chance to prove that you aren't a liar no matter how bad it looks right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-55417715498922803192007-03-27T07:28:00.000-04:002007-03-27T07:28:00.000-04:00lance said "BH theory relies on the belief that th...lance said "BH theory relies on the belief that there is going to be massive unemployment BUT only for homeowners and not for renters"<BR/><BR/>Yes lance, I know that was her point. If a recession hits (and its likely it will unless of course we can prop. up the U.S. econ. w/ more debt) unemployment will strike both homedebters and renters alike.<BR/> <BR/>MY point was that if there is massive unemployment it will not affect me b/c I have saved for it . . which I could not have done by buying a house in 05. If I had bought in 05, I would not be able to have saved a tenth of what I have now.<BR/><BR/>Do I believe that renting is stupid over the long haul (i.e. 30+ years). YES!. Do I believe buying now is stupid. YES! <BR/><BR/>va_investor . . .<BR/>you think renters, as a rule, can hold on longer than owners if both were to lose their jobs?"<BR/><BR/>No, I did not say that. I said that if I had bought in 05 I would not be as financial secure as I am now. I believe that as a rule, someone who truly owns their home will absolutely hold out longer. However over the past 5 years, and more particularly the last 2-3 we've had 100-200% price increases in 5 years. . . did incomes suddenly go up 200%??? Now it is not smart to buy. <BR/><BR/>Speculators (who fancy themselves as investors) believed they can get 100-200% increase just b/c they held onto a property for 2 years. They made minimal improvements, put some crappy bs Home Depot parts in the house, make it look nice and try to sell it to joe schmo as a "like new" house, meanwhile the room leaks and the house has serious structural faults in it <BR/><BR/>At this point, with the cost of owning a house 3x+ the cost of renting. I believe taking person x making y amount he will last longer renting than buying. That won't hold true forever, it's just true in the short term.<BR/><BR/>No I don't believe every owner or investor is heloced to death. There are some really smart ones out there and they do just fine and make lots of money. However, when you see books on how to make money in real estate take over the investing section of Barnes and Nobles, you know the boom time is nearing it's end.<BR/><BR/>And my wife's boss . . . I always know when things are getting a little tight since she doesn't get as much work.<BR/><BR/>"his income is inadequate to fund the shortfall or, if it is adequate, he will lose his job and not find another at comparable wages"<BR/><BR/>Well, considering the fact that I made clear he is an investor that real estate IS his income. Yes since real estate is bad he doesn't make as much money---well except for the fact that he keeps borrowing more and more money from other banks/investors/friends/relatives etc. to keep him afloat for right now.<BR/><BR/>Multiple people I know have gotten out of real estate/mortgage/brokers/etc. until "the market gets better" and have taken other jobs.<BR/><BR/>Oh another ancedotal . . my wife's boss does what you implied you do . . .buy up foreclosed properties . . yet he is still feeling the heat.<BR/><BR/>People that think real estate will always go up (way faster than incomes - like 4-5% more) just need to think about the implications of that. That means in 50-100 years people will be spending their entire life and maybe the entire life of their children just to buy a place to live. We already see 40 year mortgages . . . what's next intergenerational loans?? <BR/><BR/>Literally a slave for four walls and a roof.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-31325575522094737352007-03-26T23:05:00.000-04:002007-03-26T23:05:00.000-04:00Lance said... “Robert ... open your damn eyes! I l...Lance said... <BR/>“Robert ... open your damn eyes! I looked at a couple open houses today in the District. Prices are up by a high degree. Houses that last year were going for $1.0 to $1.2 million are now just under $2.0 million ... That is a HUGE increase ...”<BR/><BR/>“Lance”, I have opened my eyes; to a handful of rather nice homes going into foreclosure. I’ve lowballed a couple and after a few choice words from the sellers, just went directly to the attorney(s) handling the case. Let’s just say I’m now on their mailing list (and I’m not talking Christmas Cards). No need to rush, plenty more going on the market (or foreclosure, whichever).<BR/><BR/>How about you opening your eyes to the data Keith was kind enough to track down for ya’ on your row houses with “huge” increases?roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10354810363004791622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-34628946190632337222007-03-26T22:54:00.000-04:002007-03-26T22:54:00.000-04:00"Wow. Your post is so funny I can hardly contain m..."Wow. Your post is so funny I can hardly contain myself. Well...OK, you show us the comps (including address and MLS) that prove your proposition. OK? Get to it pal. "<BR/><BR/>You want me to prove the negative? <BR/><BR/>That there are NO rowhouses in the district that sold for $1 million a year ago and are now selling for $2 million 12 months later?<BR/><BR/>That is quite a bit harder than simply finding one "average rowhouse" that has done what lance claims they have. <BR/><BR/>It is his assertion. It is his responsibility to provide some support. <BR/><BR/>So why don't you sit back, relax, and let lance give us the numbers.<BR/><BR/>You should be 100% confident that he knows the exact addresses of those "average rowhouses." He walked through a couple himself just days ago didn't he?<BR/><BR/>Didn't he?<BR/><BR/>Of course he did... the alternative is that he was just ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-91945129206001744912007-03-26T22:43:00.000-04:002007-03-26T22:43:00.000-04:00Keith said... “Yes, Investor, going and using actu...Keith said... <BR/>“Yes, Investor, going and using actual real estate assessment data to check somebody's unfounded assertions about real estate sales on a blog discussing real estate is adding nothing to a discussion about real estate.”<BR/><BR/>Stay tuned, up next “Lance” and Va will be analyzing belly button lint for market indicators.roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10354810363004791622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-78829055957702746192007-03-26T22:22:00.000-04:002007-03-26T22:22:00.000-04:00Well...OK, you show us the comps (including addres...<I>Well...OK, you show us the comps (including address and MLS) that prove your proposition. OK? Get to it pal.</I><BR/><BR/>I am surprised DC doesn't have these kind of blogs. In Orange County, CA there are plenty of blogs that compare existing home sale/asking prices to what they sold for earlier. Some that I read are:<BR/><BR/>http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/<BR/>http://www.oc-fliptrack.com/<BR/><BR/>From what I can see prices in OC are back to around 2005 levels, which to clarify to Lance is not 1 year but 2 years ago. I have a feeling they will drop further to around 2003 levels when all the loose lending really started.posterboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13570229348606969287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-71029523109990391932007-03-26T22:09:00.000-04:002007-03-26T22:09:00.000-04:00Wow, this is hilarious. The FIRST time Lance posts...Wow, this is hilarious. The FIRST time Lance posts data of ANY sort and this is what happens. No wonder he rarely posts any statistics. Lance just forget it and go back to "its a good time to buy anytime, BHs should understand... blah blah blah" chime. That suits you much better than posting real information.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-62747442004498539082007-03-26T20:36:00.000-04:002007-03-26T20:36:00.000-04:00Keith said... "Yeah, Investor's a freak. He/she.it...Keith said... <BR/>"Yeah, Investor's a freak. He/she.it agrees with David J., but apparently her bitter hatred of people who choose to rent won't let he/she/it admit it."<BR/><BR/>Sorry Keith, you're the freak ...Not Va_Investor. She understands that even when prices "stagnate" homebuyers are making out in a multitude of ways that renters aren't ... including tax breaks. And what advantage do renters get by waiting out the stagnation period? The possibility of higher interest rates and/or a sudden and unexpected rise in prices. See ... You're the freak ... You see what is happening, but react 180 degrees different from what an intelligent person would do.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-21207374920352657982007-03-26T19:33:00.000-04:002007-03-26T19:33:00.000-04:00"Am I wrong here?"Usually."Am I wrong here?"<BR/><BR/>Usually.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-16051374658954622952007-03-26T19:14:00.000-04:002007-03-26T19:14:00.000-04:00"I see you still have nothing to add to the discus..."I see you still have nothing to add to the discussion(?). Am I wrong here? "<BR/><BR/>I think he added quite a bit to the discussion. It is important to keep things more or less factual for everyone's mutual benefit. <BR/><BR/>Imagine if some new reader who had just found this blog for the first time today read this thread and didn't realize that Lance was full of crap? <BR/><BR/>They might actually believe that "average rowhouses" in the district are up 100% YoY...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-13899151186419921692007-03-26T19:08:00.000-04:002007-03-26T19:08:00.000-04:00Yes, Investor, going and using actual real estate ...Yes, Investor, going and using actual real estate assessment data to check somebody's unfounded assertions about real estate sales on a blog discussing real estate is adding nothing to a discussion about real estate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-82033834144783632142007-03-26T18:45:00.000-04:002007-03-26T18:45:00.000-04:00"The one on 1329 R sold for 1.35 Mil on 6/30/04.In..."The one on 1329 R sold for 1.35 Mil on 6/30/04.<BR/><BR/>In addition, any addition in assessment has come from improvements and not land value...it looks like this seller has sunk a lot of money into the house... and his asking price is still just that, asking, not selling.<BR/><BR/>Well, the one on 1632 Riggs sold for 1.135 Mil on 5/10/2005.<BR/><BR/>So, according to Lance's "logic" of treating these two as comps, prices fell 15% from June 04 to May 05...<BR/><BR/>Poor Lance, doesn't even know what a comp is..."<BR/><BR/>OUCH!<BR/><BR/>I didn't even think to check that. <BR/><BR/>That is pretty funny actually. Our global economy guru sure makes a lot of really really stupid mistakes. <BR/><BR/>We don't have to worry though. Lance said that the 1 million->2 million in the last 12 months price increase is not limited to special cases, but rather are "just your average rowhouses in nice areas."<BR/><BR/>That tells me he won't have any problem coming up with several examples of "average rowhouses" that have gone from $1 million to $2 million in the last 12 months. <BR/><BR/>Afterall... he said he toured a couple of those houses personally just this last weekend...<BR/><BR/>All he needs to do is remember where he was and show us the data.<BR/><BR/>(you know, or do the impossible, admit he was wrong and lying again)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-14918368123643250042007-03-26T17:14:00.000-04:002007-03-26T17:14:00.000-04:00Lance failed. He couldn't find a rowhouse that wen...Lance failed. He couldn't find a rowhouse that went up, so he treated two completely different rowhouses as comps.<BR/><BR/>The one on 1329 R sold for 1.35 Mil on 6/30/04.<BR/><BR/>https://www.taxpayerservicecenter.com/RP_Detail.jsp?ssl=0239%20%20%20%200802<BR/><BR/>In addition, any addition in assessment has come from improvements and not land value...it looks like this seller has sunk a lot of money into the house... and his asking price is still just that, asking, not selling.<BR/><BR/>Well, the one on 1632 Riggs sold for 1.135 Mil on 5/10/2005.<BR/><BR/>https://www.taxpayerservicecenter.com/RP_Detail.jsp?ssl=0178%20%20%20%200019<BR/><BR/>So, according to Lance's "logic" of treating these two as comps, prices fell 15% from June 04 to May 05...<BR/><BR/>Poor Lance, doesn't even know what a comp is...<BR/><BR/>Once again, Lance loses.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-11529177448137095612007-03-26T16:45:00.000-04:002007-03-26T16:45:00.000-04:00Lance,1329 R St NW is 3631 sq ft (complete with a ...Lance,<BR/><BR/>1329 R St NW is 3631 sq ft (complete with a rented-out in-law suite) while 1632 Riggs Pl. NWis only 2460 sq ft. Given that the new listing is 50% bigger than the house that sold 2 years ago, I don't think that you can call these "Similar type houses". We also know nothing about the state of repair of the house that sold.<BR/><BR/>Also know that the asking price is not what the final sales price will be. Seller's can ask whatever they want for a house, but they may not get it.<BR/><BR/>Add in the fact that you're giving a house that sold 2 years ago, but making statements about what's happened in the last "12 months".<BR/><BR/>Please find 2 SALES of comparable houses with a time difference of only 12 month. Or restate your claim to something like, "Rowhouses that are 50% bigger than rowhouses that sold 2 years ago are selling for a lot more!"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-84812313186709372812007-03-26T16:28:00.000-04:002007-03-26T16:28:00.000-04:00Yeah, Investor's a freak. He/she.it agrees with Da...Yeah, Investor's a freak. He/she.it agrees with David J., but apparently her bitter hatred of people who choose to rent won't let he/she/it admit it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-51105527928509753022007-03-26T16:20:00.000-04:002007-03-26T16:20:00.000-04:00"Look up MLS# DC6334022 from Coldwell Banker. It i..."Look up MLS# DC6334022 from Coldwell Banker. It is at 1329 R St NW and for sale for just under $2M. Next go into the existing sales data at DC.gov and look up 1632 Riggs Place which sold for $1,135,000 in 2005. Similar type houses. The one for sale now is in Logan Circle. The one sold in 2005 for slightly over $1 Million is in the more desireable Dupont Circle neighborhood. Like I said, prices are skyrocketing. David was wrong. Very very wrong. And the bubbleheads will be the ones paying the price now."<BR/><BR/><BR/>Out of curiosity lance... do you consider 2005 "last year" ?<BR/><BR/>Here is your original assertion:<BR/><BR/>"I looked at a couple open houses today in the District. Prices are up by a high degree. Houses that last year were going for $1.0 to $1.2 million are now just under $2.0 million ... That is a HUGE increase ... in only a 12 month period."<BR/><BR/>You said both "last year" and "12 month period."<BR/><BR/>How about you go find us the data that supports that assertion, you know, data from March 2006 or later. <BR/><BR/>Thanks in advance!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-13592163981404811082007-03-26T15:53:00.000-04:002007-03-26T15:53:00.000-04:00http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/90_Percent_o...http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/<BR/>90_Percent_of_Appraisers_Feel_Pressure_to_<BR/>Inflate_Home_Values.html?ref=patrick.net<BR/><BR/>-90 Percent of Appraisers Feel Pressure to Inflate Home Values<BR/><BR/>Mar 23, 2007 -- Inflated home appraisals helped drive up home prices across the country to levels that couldn't be sustained. A new study finds that 90 percent of appraisers now feel pressure to inflate home values. Some are even being asked to turn in appraisals without looking for a home. Those who don't cooperate face negative ramifications from clients and employers alike. <BR/>A recent national survey conducted by October Research Corp. found that 90 percent of appraisers feel pressure to turn in inflated home appraisals. This includes appraisals for both new home purchases and refinances. The number is up from 64 percent in 2003.<BR/>The October Research Corp. Study also noted that 75 percent of the appraisers surveyed say there are 'negative ramifications' if they refuse to provide a higher valuation or alter an appraisal.-roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10354810363004791622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-32981134365503984972007-03-26T15:48:00.000-04:002007-03-26T15:48:00.000-04:00Lance said... “Look up MLS# DC6334022 from Coldwel...Lance said... <BR/>“Look up MLS# DC6334022 from Coldwell Banker. It is at 1329 R St NW and for sale for just under $2M. Next go into the existing sales data at DC.gov and look up 1632 Riggs Place which sold for $1,135,000 in 2005. Similar type houses.”<BR/><BR/><BR/>So, “Lance” has gone from “Prices will not drop”:<BR/><BR/>In NoVa<BR/>In DC<BR/>In DC proper<BR/>Not in my zip code<BR/>Not on my street<BR/>Not on my block<BR/><BR/>And he’s now gone from using YOY data to Month to month data,<BR/><BR/>Now, “Lance” has gone from sold price, to asking price to gauge the market.roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10354810363004791622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17502518059476322262007-03-26T15:12:00.000-04:002007-03-26T15:12:00.000-04:00va_investor said:"The more likely scenario is one ...va_investor said:<BR/>"The more likely scenario is one we have seen before. Prices, generally, drifting lower, follwed by some years of stagnation. I sure wouldn't bet on a crash. But then, I don't have David J.'s (or David L's, for that matter) crystal ball or economic acumen."<BR/><BR/>I agree with your assessment, but to me, especially if the stagnation is 5 years or so, that's a crash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com