tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post2655919233483779493..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Robert Shiller Interview: The Subprime SolutionDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-38490591276570095222008-08-19T17:10:00.000-04:002008-08-19T17:10:00.000-04:00So the dancing puppets are the bears and the seals...So the dancing puppets are the bears and the seals are the bulls. Got it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-80135352995999931292008-08-11T13:11:00.000-04:002008-08-11T13:11:00.000-04:00You misunderstood, the fish are for the housing pu...You misunderstood, the fish are for the housing pumpers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-10843264688950373442008-08-07T23:50:00.000-04:002008-08-07T23:50:00.000-04:00"theta-equis said...I think it's just one very pas..."theta-equis said...<BR/>I think it's just one very passionate and, well, just plain sexy narcissistic anonybull"<BR/><BR/>Ill admit - I am so immature ive done this before. Not this time though. There are 2 and possibly 3 or 4 of us doing the tweaking this time around. <BR/><BR/>So good job Corky...extra fish for you...now go back to your stand and twirl on my cue...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-59125024904072837172008-08-07T20:58:00.000-04:002008-08-07T20:58:00.000-04:00The narcissistic anonybulls sorta turn me on when ...The narcissistic anonybulls sorta turn me on when they get so angry. Actually, I think it's just one very passionate and, well, just plain sexy narcissistic anonybull. Thanks for not using CAPS LOCK too much; I would not have been able to restrain myself. I can't quit you! Time for a cold shower.Terminator-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03422869633320344601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-41692866878202120522008-08-07T09:36:00.000-04:002008-08-07T09:36:00.000-04:00Ah, my trained cadre of circus seals. Piping up ri...Ah, my trained cadre of circus seals. Piping up right on cue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-73466334446578126822008-08-07T09:28:00.000-04:002008-08-07T09:28:00.000-04:00" meaning of price anchoring."We will start with a..." meaning of price anchoring."<BR/><BR/>We will start with a refresher for you on the concept of "Unit Pricing".<BR/><BR/>Then we'll discuss "Production Volume"<BR/><BR/>Then we'll tie unit prices and production volume into the following models: <BR/><BR/>1) The lemonade stand and<BR/>2) Individual home sellers<BR/><BR/>If that doesn't help you, then we'll go into the notion of "Perishable Goods" and tie that into the models listed above. How about Cost of Goods Sold? And Economies of Scale and their affect on unit pricing? (Lemons, water, sugar and perhaps a disposable cup v. One single completed home with utilities, a certificate of occupancy, and a plot of land)<BR/><BR/>I get the feeling I'm arguing with a college student or a recent grad, who takes copious notes but doesn't yet have the wisdom to apply theory to reality.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-67042818951534841682008-08-07T09:14:00.000-04:002008-08-07T09:14:00.000-04:00Child, the lemonade dealer sells individual glasse...Child, the lemonade dealer sells individual glasses of lemonade. He sells one glass, then another, then another.<BR/><BR/>Homeowners sell one home, and that is all.<BR/><BR/>See the difference? You don't, do you? That's pretty sad.<BR/><BR/>Next:<BR/><BR/>The substantial price corrections; the corrections which would compel buyers based SOLEY upon price alone, are in the outer ring suburbs. The corrections in the outer ring have been happening for years. <BR/><BR/>Can you point to evidence that homebuyers (they still exist) are making purchases in the outer ring? Or are the homes sitting empty?<BR/><BR/>The answer is that they're sitting empty, which means substitution is not happening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-80548194985637989682008-08-07T09:13:00.000-04:002008-08-07T09:13:00.000-04:00So you admit your "arguments" and "evidence" are c...So you admit your "arguments" and "evidence" are complete shit and totally contrived, so no one should believe anything posited by bulls on this site. Thanks for clearing that up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-43570890588415589592008-08-07T00:15:00.000-04:002008-08-07T00:15:00.000-04:00"Terminator-X said... Wrong. One home owner owns a..."Terminator-X said... <BR/>Wrong. One home owner owns all of his home, much like the lemonade stand owner owns his stand. "<BR/><BR/>But yet, in your example you said "On a hot day, I sold 100 glasses for 10 cents each. I felt rich. The next day was cold and rainy, and I sold 15 glasses, but I still charged 10 cents per glass"<BR/><BR/>So does the homeowner own 1 home the first day that he sells and another on the rainy day? Or perhaps he had 100 "housing units" well call them, and then 15 housing units the second day??? Sorry, but your analogy doesnt work. Its ok though - we all make mistakes, just admit your analogy wasnt all that great. <BR/><BR/>"Terminator X said...<BR/>In any event, the MRIS data indicates that the correction is moving inward."<BR/><BR/>Still peddling that "moving inward" crap? How about its moved in and just not all that big of a drop?<BR/><BR/>"Terminator X said...<BR/>The emotional component of price anchoring is denial, which I suspect is also why so many anonymous housing bulls post here."<BR/><BR/>Or did you ever think that we are just so childish that we get off antagonzing housing bears who cant stand to leave well enough alone? Its so easy sometimes, we leave a little bait out there, and they alwyays come back to dispute it - DANCE PUPPET DANCE!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-88000533541329049502008-08-06T21:48:00.000-04:002008-08-06T21:48:00.000-04:00"1)One lemonade dealer owns all the lemonade. One ...<B>"1)One lemonade dealer owns all the lemonade. One entity does not own all real estate in one area."</B><BR/><BR/>Wrong. One home owner owns all of his home, much like the lemonade stand owner owns his stand. Unless a real estate sale is distressed, the homeowner, like the lemonade seller, is not compelled to sell until he gets his asking price. This is why real estate sales have diminished: sellers are anchoring to peak prices and buyers are simply not as willing to buy at those prices as they were at peak. The emotional component of price anchoring is denial, which I suspect is also why so many anonymous housing bulls post here. And please let me know if you need further explanation as to the meaning of price anchoring.<BR/><BR/><B>"2)The lemonade dealer suffers the consequences of substitution. (tap water for lemonade.) The average homebuyer seeking a property inside the beltway is not going to substitute a home in West Virginia."</B><BR/><BR/>One need not go as far as WV to see a price correction. It's disappointing that one who would lecture me on flawed analogies couldn't do better than this. Inferior goods substitute for superior goods if the price differential is sufficient enough; in that regard, water substitutes for lemonade and Fairfax County real estate would substitute for Arlington if Fairfax prices fell sufficiently. Avoid the trap of arguing that there is no substitute for Arlington, since that's a loser; rather, your best argument is that prices in areas outside of Arlington won't fall enough to compel buyers to substitute anything else for their little slice of Arlington heaven. In any event, the MRIS data indicates that the correction is moving inward.<BR/><BR/><B>"There are more examples of the flaws in that analogy. Please advise if you'd like to read them."</B><BR/><BR/>Ah, yes, after all we've seen in the past year, it's a delight to argue with somebody about the housing bubble. It's like going to a religious chat room and arguing about whether the earth is 6,000 years old.Terminator-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03422869633320344601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-49613987534408368062008-08-06T18:10:00.000-04:002008-08-06T18:10:00.000-04:00"Its fun, and it passes the time while at work - t..."Its fun, and it passes the time while at work - try it some time!"<BR/><BR/>I do. I've been yanking the chains of you queens all week. It's hilarious!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-34103401290589564782008-08-06T16:20:00.000-04:002008-08-06T16:20:00.000-04:00"If you are own property, and you are convinced pr..."If you are own property, and you are convinced prices here are going to skyrocket forever, why would you even bother with a blog dedicated to the opposite view?"<BR/><BR/>Mostly to laugh at all the renters who think DC will have Manassas-type-prices if they wait long enough. Its fun, and it passes the time while at work - try it some time!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-77326792027068655612008-08-06T16:04:00.000-04:002008-08-06T16:04:00.000-04:00"and you are convinced prices here are going to sk..."and you are convinced prices here are going to skyrocket forever"<BR/><BR/>Who said anything about prices "skyrocketing forever"? Those are your words. Someone (apparently a homeowner) posted a Case-Shiller Futures estimate showing approximately a 3% increase for Washington in the coming year. That certainly isn't "Skyrocketing" appreciation.<BR/><BR/>You might want to try to remove your emotions from your interpretation of the facts. You'll see things more clearly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-82942844479862799402008-08-06T15:01:00.000-04:002008-08-06T15:01:00.000-04:00If you are own property, and you are convinced pri...If you are own property, and you are convinced prices here are going to skyrocket forever, why would you even bother with a blog dedicated to the opposite view?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-81246726742837272232008-08-06T13:57:00.000-04:002008-08-06T13:57:00.000-04:00In fact, doesn't it make sense that a DC homeowner...<I>In fact, doesn't it make sense that a DC homeowner would visit this blog regularly?</I><BR/><BR/>Are you nuts?! Why would a homeowner be interested in the topic of home ownership!? No DC homeowner has ever visited this site; especially not one named Lance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-83344660455868210662008-08-06T13:49:00.000-04:002008-08-06T13:49:00.000-04:00"Oh look! I changed the title of my posting name, ..."Oh look! I changed the title of my posting name, and that is evidence that I am what I say I am."<BR/><BR/>Hypocrisy. You say that I cannot afford a home in DC. Do you not see that you are a hypocrite?<BR/><BR/>The basis of your doubt is likely the fact that you yourself are a liar. Not everyone needs to lie on a blog to feel better about themselves.<BR/><BR/>In fact, doesn't it make sense that a DC homeowner would visit this blog regularly?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-87254550579797539252008-08-06T12:44:00.000-04:002008-08-06T12:44:00.000-04:00DC Resident and Homeowner said...Oh look! I change...DC Resident and Homeowner said...<BR/><BR/>Oh look! I changed the title of my posting name, and that is evidence that I am what I say I am.<BR/><BR/>It is amazing how many people on the Internet have a dream home, a dream job, or something they think everyone else wants.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-10314726221803007372008-08-06T10:20:00.000-04:002008-08-06T10:20:00.000-04:00"But I wonder what those customers drank after dem..."But I wonder what those customers drank after demand for my lemonade diminished?"<BR/><BR/>I wonder where people are living now that the volume of real estate transactions is lower than it was a year ago? I guess they're all in the street?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-88548328879357286542008-08-06T08:51:00.000-04:002008-08-06T08:51:00.000-04:00That's masking the real drop in price per house as...<I>That's masking the real drop in price per house as the less nice ones don't sell. </I><BR/><BR/>If it doesn't sell, it doesn't sell and there is no transaction price associated with the property. Therefore, the last sale price stands as a matter of record.<BR/><BR/>It doesn't matter if the owner WANTS to sell it. It only matters if it is sold, or foreclosed. Otherwise, it is what it is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-24710126407304150642008-08-06T08:30:00.000-04:002008-08-06T08:30:00.000-04:00A couple examples of faulty logic in the lemonade ...A couple examples of faulty logic in the lemonade example:<BR/><BR/>1)One lemonade dealer owns all the lemonade. One entity does not own all real estate in one area.<BR/><BR/>2)The lemonade dealer suffers the consequences of substitution. (tap water for lemonade.) The average homebuyer seeking a property inside the beltway is not going to substitute a home in West Virginia.<BR/><BR/>There are more examples of the flaws in that analogy. Please advise if you'd like to read them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17464254955954937932008-08-06T07:53:00.000-04:002008-08-06T07:53:00.000-04:00Funny - the press and Professor Shiller have let t...Funny - the press and Professor Shiller have let the cat out of the bag, close in prices didn't plunge after 3 years of hammering and probably won't.<BR/><BR/>This is such old news that Lance has given up repeating himself. <BR/><BR/>A few die-hard BH's are still waiting, hoping, for that North Arlington choice home to fall 50%.<BR/><BR/>Give it up. You can buy in Manassas and lurch on I66 to the jobs for 2 hours in the morning or you can find a job that lets you telework and battle against low bidders from Tennessee, West Texas, or India.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-68342925042296064752008-08-06T06:47:00.000-04:002008-08-06T06:47:00.000-04:00Lemonade is not fee-simple real estate in the city...Lemonade is not fee-simple real estate in the city of Washington DC.<BR/><BR/>Think about it, and if you need further details, please let us know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-8093894523649542432008-08-06T01:05:00.000-04:002008-08-06T01:05:00.000-04:00Shiller's analogy of the current housing correctio...Shiller's analogy of the current housing correction to the post-WWI treatment of Germany is totally invalid. Retaliatory added financial burden placed on Germany is far from the same thing as simply <I>not removing</I> reckless borrowers' already existing financial burdens. And speaking of his desire to not "punish" people, why is it that he is concerned only with "not punishing" reckless borrowers? Why is he <I>for</I> punishing people who didn't borrow recklessly? Why does he want to remove reckless borrowers' financial burdens, and put it onto renters who have been saving up responsibly for homes that they can afford?__khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874585542372800376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-69260251058400381592008-08-05T23:30:00.000-04:002008-08-05T23:30:00.000-04:00"anonywuss said...BTW, for all of the 'Arlington w..."anonywuss said...<BR/><BR/>BTW, for all of the 'Arlington will never fall people', median prices may only be down moderately, but sales are down 30%. That's masking the real drop in price per house as the less nice ones don't sell."<BR/><BR/>Wuss, this is not the only way that shiller foresake the bubble heads. I love their explanation for the lower sales we see close in...<BR/><BR/>"So even as overall sales volume drops, relatively stronger demand for housing will limit price declines in neighborhoods with shorter work commutes...Because of sharp increases in gasoline prices, living closer to work has become an even more important consideration in the location decisions of homebuyers"<BR/><BR/>http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/052708_Housing_bubbles_collapse.pdf<BR/><BR/>So apparently Arlington, Alexandria, and DC really are immune...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-65576204684263925902008-08-05T22:00:00.000-04:002008-08-05T22:00:00.000-04:00anonywuss,I had a lemonade stand as a kid. On a ho...anonywuss,<BR/><BR/>I had a lemonade stand as a kid. On a hot day, I sold 100 glasses for 10 cents each. I felt rich. The next day was cold and rainy, and I sold 15 glasses, but I still charged 10 cents per glass. I wasn't going to give it away. Clearly, it was worth 10 cents since the price stayed the same. And since my lemonade was so uniquely refreshing and tasty, it was unthinkable that anyone would substitute icky tap water for it even if I charged $100 per glass. But I wonder what those customers drank after demand for my lemonade diminished?Terminator-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03422869633320344601noreply@blogger.com