tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post3056705988229330570..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: More stimulus, but no more bubblesDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-72477929065517266602009-10-21T10:25:33.403-04:002009-10-21T10:25:33.403-04:00"I also have the feeling that the very desira..."I also have the feeling that the very desirable areas around here will remain relatively high priced because people with the money will flock to higher ground as less desirable areas go under."<br /><br />I hadnt thought of that. Thanks for depressing me even further :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17172412813172448982009-10-21T09:56:56.264-04:002009-10-21T09:56:56.264-04:00We agree, Anonymous@9:28.
I also have the feeling...We agree, Anonymous@9:28.<br /><br />I also have the feeling that the very desirable areas around here will remain relatively high priced because people with the money will flock to higher ground as less desirable areas go under. The real value of better areas may actually increase because other areas are struggling. That is, value depends on circumstances, like water in the desert or high elevation property in a flood zone. <br /><br />So, many would be willing to pay more now than they otherwise would for a home where the effects of the bursting bubble have been less severe (these homes are actually more valuable now than they otherwise would be without the bubble). I don't know if that makes vast areas immune to the market correction, but it certainly helps buffer small enclaves of particularly desirable properties from the full forces of correction.<br /><br />How much protection that affords in general for homes in the "immunozones" I don't know, but a good case can be made for various opinions.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-34092934055791443792009-10-21T09:28:47.474-04:002009-10-21T09:28:47.474-04:00"My view is that a mini-bubble has been cause..."My view is that a mini-bubble has been caused in the DC area by the government's efforts to triage housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona and to provide life support to the rest of the economy."<br /><br />I agree with you by the way. Trying to boost other weaker areas has indirectly caused quite a bounce here. <br /><br />My point was just about incomes. Obviously, the areas that dont seem distressed (we all know which ones they are) are the ones that likely are benefiting from the massive increase in the number of high income individuals in this area.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25897642630440402402009-10-21T08:34:30.933-04:002009-10-21T08:34:30.933-04:00"The market has spoken - we just dont like wh..."The market has spoken - we just dont like what it is saying..."<br /><br />I don't mind what it's saying...heck, I stand to benefit if things continue on the current trajectory. But it is way too early to tell what is going to happen. Consider... <br /><br />* First, there was a ton of pent up demand (me included). <br /><br />* Second, sales numbers and inventory have been relatively low. <br /><br />* Third, artificially low interest rates helped push buying power ridiculously, and unsustainably, high (just like during the main bubble). <br /><br />* Forth, banks aren't the ones lending and citizens aren't the ones purchasing mortgage bonds (at least not directly); it is primarily the government that is providing the vast majority of mortgage money, taking all the risks, and providing a market for MBS. <br /><br />* Fifth, the very expensive homes around here aren't really selling (inventory of expensive homes is climbing and prices dropping). <br /><br />I could go on and on, but we've covered this already.<br /><br />Can anyone legitimately call what we have had for the past year a "market"? We are awash in props, tricks, scale tipping, etc. Is what we have balanced and sustainable? Does today's market give any indication about what is to come once all the gimmicks are taken away?<br /><br />My view is that a mini-bubble has been caused in the DC area by the government's efforts to triage housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona and to provide life support to the rest of the economy. The housing price inflation in the DC area over the past year was as much of an unintended consequence of gov't interference with the markets as were the huge bonuses on Wall Street.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17339597066155560812009-10-21T07:43:15.030-04:002009-10-21T07:43:15.030-04:00"There are some buyers with the money, but th..."There are some buyers with the money, but they can only buy so many homes. The prices on the remainder will have to be lowered to match the incomes of the remaining buyers, otherwise they simply won't sell. "<br /><br />That issue has already been decided. The banks have taken away the punchbowl - liar loans (which were scant inside the beltway to begin with) are gone. No one is buying today unless they can afford it - and apparently there are enough people in those areas to support it.<br /><br />The market has spoken - we just dont like what it is saying...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-30992431485912771382009-10-21T07:20:40.994-04:002009-10-21T07:20:40.994-04:00"The secret isn't high income. It's t..."The secret isn't high income. It's that they bought a long time ago. More than 7 years qualifies as a long time ago. "<br /><br />Exactly. That's the secret to why so many people with modest incomes are living in very expensive homes today (that and the lax lending standards during the bubble). But who is going to buy those homes from the long-timers in the future? <br /><br />There just aren't enough people making enough money to buy those homes at those inflated prices now. There are some buyers with the money, but they can only buy so many homes. The prices on the remainder will have to be lowered to match the incomes of the remaining buyers, otherwise they simply won't sell. <br /><br />You can still say that the value of the home not selling, or not on the market, is what the comps sold for, only you can't sell it because nobody can afford it. Is the true value of a home what someone with enough money would pay for it, or what the actual, available buyers can/would pay for it?wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-32926126692506485772009-10-20T22:29:06.564-04:002009-10-20T22:29:06.564-04:00"Are there really that many $250+K income hou..."Are there really that many $250+K income households that can support this type of high priced inventory?"<br /><br />In my Immundria neighborhood, a retiree, SS + a small pension, owns a paid off $450,000 TH. Another neighbor who only earns just over $100K lives in a paid off, $750K, elegant SFH.<br /><br />The secret isn't high income. It's that they bought a long time ago. More than 7 years qualifies as a long time ago. <br /><br />They might earn $80K and live in a $500K place that they bought for $200K.ajaxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1270029683585901702009-10-20T09:00:00.143-04:002009-10-20T09:00:00.143-04:00"Of course, if I buy a home around here I wou..."Of course, if I buy a home around here I would be shackled to the epicenter of the apocalypse."<br /><br />Dont worry - you can always get a job here - printing money will be our chief industry in the post apocalyptic world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-39355270571075083652009-10-20T07:24:43.463-04:002009-10-20T07:24:43.463-04:00"This country is bankrupt!...Have you decided..."This country is bankrupt!...Have you decided where you going when the Dollar becomes worthless?"<br /><br />Well, I have to admit that I'm worried about the future of this country, and I have given some thought about relocating to another country when we're forced to admit that we've spent ourselves into an abyss of debt over the past 30 years that we'll never climb back out of.<br /><br />Strangely enough, because I think the dollar is going to be worth much less in the future (inflation) I want to invest some of my dollars in a home (a tangible asset) now. Of course, if I buy a home around here I would be shackled to the epicenter of the apocalypse.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-57879336724036876312009-10-20T00:29:01.965-04:002009-10-20T00:29:01.965-04:00Vas te faire foutre!!Vas te faire foutre!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-21494367268648168782009-10-20T00:27:00.527-04:002009-10-20T00:27:00.527-04:00Wireknob! It does not matter what you think... Wha...Wireknob! It does not matter what you think... What I think... This country is bankrupt! No one can tell the exact day the USA will default and we will all go to ecominc hell. I am going to southern France when that happens leaving all this mess behind. Have you decided where you going when the Dollar becomes worthless?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-83449161688718807982009-10-19T19:44:02.069-04:002009-10-19T19:44:02.069-04:00"Still haven't addressed the question, th..."Still haven't addressed the question, though. Touche."<br /><br />oboe is a MASTER at thatclarinetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-30014262291869268342009-10-19T11:32:07.146-04:002009-10-19T11:32:07.146-04:00"Wow! Rude and completely lacking in reading ..."Wow! Rude and completely lacking in reading comprehension skills. Touche!"<br /><br />Wow! Evasive and completely lacking in substance. It seems that once logically boxed into a corner the tendency is to refine blanket statements to specific neighborhoods or streets or individuals...or complain about rudeness, lack of civility, or character flaws. Sorry if I hurt your feelings.<br /><br />Still haven't addressed the question, though. Touche.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-26014903538796388932009-10-19T11:22:35.317-04:002009-10-19T11:22:35.317-04:00"That wasn't on the page that you linked ..."That wasn't on the page that you linked to. Can you provide details on how to get to that information? Tripling doesn't mean much in and of itself - the number of households could have gone from 2 to 6."<br /><br />Try this page below. It indicates that the # of households in the +200K income group went from 4,725 in 2000 to 12,073 in 2007.<br /><br /><br /><br />http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_event=&geo_id=05000US51013&_geoContext=01000US%7C04000US51%7C05000US51013&_street=&_county=arlington&_cityTown=arlington&_state=04000US51&_zip=&_lang=en&_sse=on&ActiveGeoDiv=geoSelect&_useEV=&pctxt=fph&pgsl=050&_submenuId=factsheet_1&ds_name=null&_ci_nbr=null&qr_name=null&reg=null%3Anull&_keyword=&_industry=Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45066679166837685842009-10-19T11:08:27.714-04:002009-10-19T11:08:27.714-04:00"Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer a...<i>"Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer and richer and the poor are being pushed out."<br /><br />Have you actually taken a look at the household income distributions for the metro DC area or are you just talking out your ass.</i><br /><br />Wow! Rude and completely lacking in reading comprehension skills.<br /><br />Touche!oboenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-78398584939155675602009-10-19T09:32:35.110-04:002009-10-19T09:32:35.110-04:00"Are there really that many $250+K income hou..."<i>Are there really that many $250+K income households that can support this type of high priced inventory?<br /><br />Yes - Census indicates that between 2000 and 2007 the number of 200K+ households in Arlington nearly tripled.</i>"<br /><br />That wasn't on the page that you linked to. Can you provide details on how to get to that information? Tripling doesn't mean much in and of itself - the number of households could have gone from 2 to 6. The graph here suggests that there are a little under 250 households with an income of $200K or more:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.city-data.com/city/Arlington-Virginia.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.city-data.com/city/Arlington-Virginia.html</a><br /><br />That's 250 households out of around 100,000, or approximately 0.25% not at $250K but $200K.<br /><br />It isn't enough to say that household income is above $200K or $250K either. It has to be <i>securely</i> within that ballpark for that to be a proper foundation for buying. What jobs are secure these days?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-68649168682217757032009-10-19T09:00:45.914-04:002009-10-19T09:00:45.914-04:00Are there really that many $250+K income household...Are there really that many $250+K income households that can support this type of high priced inventory?<br /><br />Yes - Census indicates that between 2000 and 2007 the number of 200K+ households in Arlington nearly tripled.<br /><br />http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/MetadataBrowserServlet?type=QTtable&id=DEC_2000_SF3_U&table=DEC_2000_SF3_U_DP3&_lang=enAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-55703763719705274422009-10-19T07:38:08.619-04:002009-10-19T07:38:08.619-04:00"That was insulting and speaks volume about y..."That was insulting and speaks volume about your lack of character."<br /><br />Oh, please, get over yourself. And you still haven't answered my question (even as it pertains to DC proper).<br /><br />I don't dispute that certain neighborhoods appear transitional, but are the incomes of the buyers in these areas (and DC in general) high enough to support the high housing prices? Or, are people in hock up to their eyeballs? When it comes time to sell their homes, will there be buyers that can afford to buy them...according to the income statistics.<br /><br />My observations, which are just as limited as yours, are that many people bought way more than they could afford, and now can't find buyers for their very expensive homes because lending standards are no longer so lax. Especially, and particularly, in the upper price levels. <br /><br />Have you taken a look at sales statistics broken out by price level? Things look much better at the low end than the high end. In other words, the "rich" don't appear to be making out so well.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-10754485174722274342009-10-19T07:01:54.214-04:002009-10-19T07:01:54.214-04:00While tax credits may just be a "shot in the ...While tax credits may just be a "shot in the arm" and not necessarily a long-term fix for the housing market, I think they are worthwhile at this point..This is the worst housing market I have seen in the 30 years I have been in the business and it needs some help...The credit has been just enough to help give buyers that are "on the fence" that little nudge they need to move forward, plus gives them a little bit of insurance just in case prices have not bottomed out..There was a study done by the Rosen Group that showed the tax credit has been the primary reason buyers have returned to the market...I included the info from the survery as well as info and a link for Fix Housing First, a coalition that has been working to extend the tax credits, in a post I did at:<br /><br />http://realestateconsumernews.com/home-sellers/homebuyer-tax-credit-has-been-primary-cause-of-recent-return-of-buyers-to-market-according-to-study/Dennis Normanhttp://realestateconsumernews.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-73805861679768763972009-10-19T02:17:39.475-04:002009-10-19T02:17:39.475-04:00"Have you actually taken a look at the househ..."Have you actually taken a look at the household income distributions for the metro DC area or are you just talking out your ass."<br /><br />That was insulting and speaks volume about your lack of character. I was talking about DC proper and the gentrification that is going on. I work on 14th street and I have seen the radical transformation of the Thomas circle neighborhood. Even at night it is safe to walk around.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-61194636452489866292009-10-18T20:58:51.685-04:002009-10-18T20:58:51.685-04:00"Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer a..."Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer and richer and the poor are being pushed out."<br /><br />Have you actually taken a look at the household income distributions for the metro DC area or are you just talking out your ass.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-9265342476117034122009-10-18T18:07:13.978-04:002009-10-18T18:07:13.978-04:00Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer and ric...Bottom line is this: DC is becoming richer and richer and the poor are being pushed out. This is a fact and it won't change anytime soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-65794092142785343292009-10-18T13:10:19.827-04:002009-10-18T13:10:19.827-04:00"Are there really that many $250+K income hou..."<i>Are there really that many $250+K income households that can support this type of high priced inventory?</i>"<br /><br />That would be one requirement before it would make sense to buy in an "immune" area, but there is a more important one: is <b>your</b> income $250+K? Also, is it secure? If it's not that high or if it might significantly decline, then you have no business buying there. Whether all your neighbors also have high paying <i>and secure</i> jobs is another matter, which is also critically important, but I suspect that this discussion is of no practical significance to most readers here because they should rule out the "immune" towns based on their own incomes alone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-29184160446000210732009-10-18T08:10:38.070-04:002009-10-18T08:10:38.070-04:00"Are there really that many $250+K income hou..."Are there really that many $250+K income households that can support this type of high priced inventory?"<br /><br />In the last month, 22305/Immundia's available-for-sale dropped to 50. This is a low number. Prices are firm to climbing. <br /><br />On Novabubble, there are a few who ask, "<b>How, how, HOW</b> can this be?" <br /><br /><br />"It must be conspiracy of banks and sellers to <b>FRUSTRATE</b> me and keep me renting, enslaved, and driving I66 into the sun or for two hours on rainy days."<br /><br /><br />It never occurs to them that these are old, old neighborhoods. I've been here more than 15 years. Several neighbors, here more than 20 years, have <b>paid off their places. </b><br /><br /><br />No idea how common this is in Immunington and Immundria but I suspect that many homes are owned by long-time residents who have paid them off.ajaxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45291837548832328692009-10-18T06:58:03.347-04:002009-10-18T06:58:03.347-04:00I believe that due to this housing bubble and cons...I believe that due to this housing bubble and consequent global economic recession the housing market suffered a lot. As a result we have seen a worst scenario in our lives. As you have written that federal government is planning to provide extra fund to tackle this situation then I would say this is the best step the government would take.Best Mutual Fundshttp://www.bestmutualfundsnow.comnoreply@blogger.com