tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post3755710699951928082..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Hudson & Marhsall Real Estate Auction VideoDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger97125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-53461599202318799972007-10-15T14:48:00.000-04:002007-10-15T14:48:00.000-04:00Man, must be more people losing their houses than ...Man, must be more people losing their houses than I thought.<BR/><BR/>Just kick the shit out of us on the courthouse steps.A Unique Aliashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14537413176663919073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-81550413094039833862007-10-15T14:22:00.000-04:002007-10-15T14:22:00.000-04:00"It's the scummy renters who are whining about hav..."It's the scummy renters who are whining about having the shit kicked out of them on this thread. Boo hoo."<BR/><BR/>Hi Lance!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-76880880332207758102007-10-15T14:03:00.000-04:002007-10-15T14:03:00.000-04:00I ain't whining. I am laughing watching you all lo...I ain't whining. I am laughing watching you all lose your shirts. This is great!<BR/>And you be nice to those renters. They are keeping Lance from getting foreclosed on!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-36636138813308677392007-10-15T13:52:00.001-04:002007-10-15T13:52:00.001-04:00And the 'bailout bill' to help head off foreclosur...And the 'bailout bill' to help head off foreclosures? The "Please government make the taxpayers bail out our Ponzi scheme and keep our financial bubble inflated bill." First, it would not have done anything to stop this decline, just political window dressing around the fringes. Second, it is getting vetoed anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-6533871752905182302007-10-15T13:52:00.000-04:002007-10-15T13:52:00.000-04:00""without either denigrating the poster, homeowner...""without either denigrating the poster, homeowners in general, the real estate industry, developers, etc."<BR/><BR/>Those who claim to be 'Homeowners' and are posting here are deluded about what their property is really worth and are thus hostile about it - they deserve the verbal beatdown they get.<BR/><BR/>'the real estate industry, developers, etc.' - are filth, lower than car salesman."<BR/><BR/><BR/>It's the scummy renters who are whining about having the shit kicked out of them on this thread. Boo hoo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-35645690784702200432007-10-15T13:39:00.000-04:002007-10-15T13:39:00.000-04:00"without either denigrating the poster, homeowners..."without either denigrating the poster, homeowners in general, the real estate industry, developers, etc."<BR/><BR/>Those who claim to be 'Homeowners' and are posting here are deluded about what their property is really worth and are thus hostile about it - they deserve the verbal beatdown they get.<BR/><BR/>'the real estate industry, developers, etc.' - are filth, lower than car salesman.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-54352500554005313012007-10-15T13:11:00.000-04:002007-10-15T13:11:00.000-04:00Leroy,Here is a link to the source page for the "b...Leroy,<BR/><BR/>Here is a link to the source page for the "blue and red line" graph...<BR/><BR/>http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=343<BR/><BR/>and here is a lot more info from the same website...<BR/><BR/>http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_issues&task=view_issue&issue=11&Itemid=22<BR/><BR/>(note that some sections have a "more" tab that will show you all the reports they have done on the topic)John Fontainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246801870171720131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-89466483719374796952007-10-15T12:58:00.000-04:002007-10-15T12:58:00.000-04:00A housing bubble blog denigrating the REIC? What ...A housing bubble blog denigrating the REIC? What next?!<BR/><BR/>Here's a quarter; best of luck holding on to the rowhouse.A Unique Aliashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14537413176663919073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-12490518952121182462007-10-15T12:42:00.000-04:002007-10-15T12:42:00.000-04:00Leroy said:""BHs have set the low bar of discussio...Leroy said:<BR/>""BHs have set the low bar of discussion which they now complain about."<BR/><BR/>Sure lance, whatever."<BR/><BR/>Ok ... then let's see if BHs can address postings they disagree with without either denigrating the poster, homeowners in general, the real estate industry, developers, etc. If BHs haven't indeed set the low bar, then discussing without <B>attacking and denigrating</B> shouldn't be a problem, should it?<BR/><BR/>And if I were to get a quarter from a BH for each time in the next 2 days that a BH violates "the rules", I suspect I could buy a couple more homes on BHs' money.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-71374973372645832552007-10-15T12:33:00.000-04:002007-10-15T12:33:00.000-04:00"I find it amusing how the BHs who are so quick to..."I find it amusing how the BHs who are so quick to hurl insults at anyone not buying into their "gloom and doom/'let me have it for nothing'" scenario get offended when others do the same to them."<BR/><BR/>Nice strawman lance... "let me have it for nothing" huh? Do you think people don't realise you just make these supposed "bublbehead" beliefs up?<BR/><BR/>The bubble is popping, prices are coming down. Don't worry, they don't drop to "nothing."<BR/><BR/>Also, I am not "hurling insults" at anyone. I am just pointing out that our resident troll has spent a good chunk of his weekend posting obscenities to this blog, which probably says a lot about how pleased he is with the decisions he has made.<BR/><BR/>"BHs have set the low bar of discussion which they now complain about."<BR/><BR/>Sure lance, whatever.Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16992494768934204942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-669134900165072822007-10-15T12:19:00.000-04:002007-10-15T12:19:00.000-04:00Leroy said... "I think the important thing to reme...Leroy said... <BR/>"I think the important thing to remember here is that if we had the troll's keen insight into real estate we would ALL be spending our time posting obscenities on blogs..."<BR/><BR/>I find it amusing how the BHs who are so quick to hurl insults at <I>anyone</I> not buying into their "gloom and doom/'let me have it for nothing'" scenario get offended when others do the same to them. BHs have set the low bar of discussion which they now complain about.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-27150863727763702982007-10-15T11:49:00.000-04:002007-10-15T11:49:00.000-04:00I think the important thing to remember here is th...I think the important thing to remember here is that if we had the troll's keen insight into real estate we would ALL be spending our time posting obscenities on blogs...Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16992494768934204942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-44026777004244910832007-10-15T11:17:00.000-04:002007-10-15T11:17:00.000-04:00Thanks for the clarification John, I misread that ...Thanks for the clarification John, I misread that graph myself. <BR/><BR/>Is there any sort of article or report that that graph is drawn from?<BR/><BR/>BTW, you are of course completely right about the troll. I suspect we have a very angry real estate speculator on our hands.Leroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16992494768934204942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25145067646188759512007-10-15T10:23:00.000-04:002007-10-15T10:23:00.000-04:00John,Thank you for clarifying that the links you p...John,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for clarifying that the links you posted are absolutely nonresponsive to the discussion going on.<BR/><BR/>It's absurd that you would post all of that and then criticize somebody else for disinterest in an honest discussion of the issues.<BR/><BR/>If you can't follow the adults' conversation, stay in the playroom with lance.<BR/><BR/>Best,<BR/><BR/>A Guy Who's Smarter than YouAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-85510331400754872942007-10-15T10:17:00.000-04:002007-10-15T10:17:00.000-04:00The link to the graph i posted with "red and blue ...The link to the graph i posted with "red and blue lines" (the CEPR graph) has been misread (it appears deliberately so) by a number of folks who incorrectly think it proves that buying has always costed more than renting.<BR/><BR/>A simple reading of the legend reveals what the blue and red lines represent. The blue line represents rents (i.e., what you would pay periodically to rent a house) and the red line represents house prices (i.e., the entire price of the house, not the monthly payment).<BR/><BR/>It should be noted that both the red and blue lines are not actual dollars, but are indexed values, with 100, or "par", being listed as the year 1953. Thus the graph shows the changes in house prices and rents relative to their 1953 levels. In addition, the index values are adjusted for inflation.<BR/><BR/>This does not mean that it cost $100 to rent a typical house in 1953, nor does it mean that you could buy a house in 1953 for $100.<BR/><BR/>Instead, the graph is simply designed to show the pattern of changes in rents and house prices over a long period of time and how they do or do not correlate. As the graph shows, house prices (again, not the monthly payment, but the entire purchase price of a house) and rents correlated within 18% of one another for the entire period from 1953 to around 1999.<BR/><BR/>After 1999, house prices diverged significantly from rents.<BR/><BR/>The graph should tell a reasonable observer two things:<BR/><BR/>1. house prices generally track rents over long periods of time<BR/><BR/>2. house prices escalated way beyond levels supported by rents in the last decade or so.<BR/><BR/>For those seeking info on the actual cost to buy (per month) vs. the cost to rent, i again point you to the first link i provided that shows the cost to rent vs. cost to buy in 2001. Notice in 2001 the US average of 1.02 indicates it cost more to rent than to buy:<BR/><BR/>http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/PJ-AJ201_pjHOME_20061212202025.gif<BR/><BR/>It is also instructive to look at how the price to rent ratios in the WSJ graphic have changed between 2001 and 2006. It shows that prices have diverged away from rents in the last five years (which, not incidentally, is what the "blue and red line" graph shows).<BR/><BR/>Further, the other link i provided shows the change in the price to rent ratio for several major cities from 2000 to 2005. Note that the US average price to rent ratio went from 12 to 17 over that period:<BR/><BR/>http://duende.uoregon.edu/~hsu/blogfiles/pricerent_NYT_05.gif<BR/><BR/>Needless to say, the misinformation posted by some on the "blue and red" graph speaks volumes about their interest in a honest discussion of the facts.John Fontainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00246801870171720131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-12583243795644103722007-10-15T09:28:00.000-04:002007-10-15T09:28:00.000-04:00Correction - too many tabs open last night. The av...Correction - too many tabs open last night. The average sold did not increase YOY. But the drop would have been much larger and closer to the median drop if it wasn't for the two $5MM plus outliers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-43745449871445964182007-10-14T22:26:00.000-04:002007-10-14T22:26:00.000-04:00Neil,Your analysis is not very good. Case-Schiller...Neil,<BR/><BR/>Your analysis is not very good. Case-Schiller tells us very little about any single jurisdiction within the DC MSA, which runs from WVa to Southern MD, and District is probably the most unique of them all as it is the only urban one. <BR/><BR/><BR/>There is also no "clear evidience" that only high end properties are selling. Neither the blog you reference or the actual MRIS data indicate this. In fact, if you use properties over 500K as your high-end metric, the proportion of high end sales has dropped YOY. If you pick 1MM as high end the same is true. That's the reason the median has dropped - less high end sales. <BR/><BR/>What the MRIS statistics don't tell is how much of a discount those homes are purchased for. While they do list the sales versus the listed price (which does show a discount these days) they do not show the original listed price. We only have anecdotal evidence for that.<BR/><BR/>I think the explanation for the Average price going up YOY is the 2 $5MM plus sales in Sept 2007. These are outliers and they are screwing up a rather thin data set.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-90887450839481885532007-10-14T17:23:00.000-04:002007-10-14T17:23:00.000-04:00My error, he seems to post on sunday too.Close dow...My error, he seems to post on sunday too.<BR/><BR/>Close down the blog on the weekend to discourage the vulgarities perhaps?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-42259281163061375312007-10-14T17:22:00.000-04:002007-10-14T17:22:00.000-04:00OK, Now the code has been cracked,the nameless one...OK, <BR/>Now the code has been cracked,<BR/><BR/>the nameless one who hides behind the title 'anonymous' and hurls insults and cursewords and acts like a big brave man, whom it seems to lack a backbone to either come up with an identity or attatch initials or a name at the end of his/her/its post,<BR/><BR/>seems to only post on saturday.<BR/><BR/>David, is there some way to lock down the blog on friday night and open it up on monday morning?<BR/><BR/>It might keep out the riff raff who have nothing meaningful to contribute to the discussion.<BR/><BR/>Also, knowing the blog is down for the weekend might give the bloggers a weekend rest from the pro or anti bubble housing debate. <BR/>A little rest from the weekly grind might just do the trick to allow bloggers a chance to rest up for the weekly housing discussion.<BR/>Just a thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-22118029959470878262007-10-14T17:17:00.000-04:002007-10-14T17:17:00.000-04:00Got popcorn?How about - Got a huge dick in your as...Got popcorn?<BR/><BR/>How about - Got a huge dick in your ass?<BR/><BR/>faggotAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25458320718203650652007-10-14T13:28:00.000-04:002007-10-14T13:28:00.000-04:00David,I found a new blog you might like. Interest...David,<BR/><BR/>I found a new blog you might like. Interesting article. Look how much the inventory is spiking up and how the dollar value of homes transacted is dropping YOY. Clear evidence only the high end properties are selling and Case-Shiller tells us they're selling at a discount.<BR/><BR/>http://www.dchousingprices.com/2007/10/mris-september-housing-report-market.html<BR/><BR/>Got popcorn?<BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-8385744991358491802007-10-14T12:59:00.000-04:002007-10-14T12:59:00.000-04:00"Now he has a computer screen to protect him, and ..."Now he has a computer screen to protect him, and he can make snide reamarks w/out fear, and follows it up with that woeful popcorn tag, that he thinks is waaay to clever."<BR/><BR/>troll, if you are going to waste everyone's time the least you could do is try to be more clever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-50174804085199028272007-10-14T11:25:00.000-04:002007-10-14T11:25:00.000-04:00Don't call Neil those names. He was the kid who p...Don't call Neil those names. He was the kid who picked last in kickball, the kid who watched Star Trek, and the kid who ate tunafish for lunch.<BR/><BR/>Now he has a computer screen to protect him, and he can make snide reamarks w/out fear, and follows it up with that woeful popcorn tag, that he thinks is waaay to clever.<BR/><BR/>I feel bad for him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-60303933428674155522007-10-14T10:45:00.000-04:002007-10-14T10:45:00.000-04:00Wow, another well thought out argument from the tr...Wow, another well thought out argument from the troll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-82980396891458402172007-10-13T22:47:00.001-04:002007-10-13T22:47:00.001-04:00Chuckle. I seem to have struck a nerve. Losers l...Chuckle. I seem to have struck a nerve. Losers like generals and CEO's? Yes, real seedy neighborhood. <BR/><BR/>I notice the bulls are totally avoided the point. The REIC isn't posting the latest information while the anecdotal evidence is pointing to fast dropping prices. Sales are plummeting everywhere! (miss the last article on this blog?). Customers are very concerned. The mania is going into a classic correction. <BR/><BR/>I'm convinced your having trouble paying your bills. Unable to get a HELOC? Business down? Job security not what you want? Perhaps laid off?<BR/><BR/>Oh, anon, thank you. You're making my point to any lurkers better than I ever could. ;) Re-read what you've posted in this and other threads and realize what message its sent to everyone. People who are confident of their position use diplomacy to make an argument. Once prices drop another 20%, you'll understand how you helped broadcast the panic. Snicker <BR/><BR/>Got popcorn?<BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com