tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post5785105998445927754..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Lawrence Yun is Wrong Abou Rising Prices; Puts Spin Machine into OverdriveDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger269125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-34062075012714377372007-11-01T12:23:00.000-04:002007-11-01T12:23:00.000-04:00Va said:"No matter how often certain BH's throw up...Va said:<BR/>"No matter how often certain BH's throw up the "strawman" that I said RE always goes up and buy now or be priced out, it is a total fabrication and a desperate one at that."<BR/><BR/>Very well said. We have been saying all along that prices for certain properties and certain locales would drop, but that the kind of firesale "declines" that the BH theory espoused weren't in the cards. We've also multiple times said that buying isn't for everyone at all times. But our words get twisted as if somehow disproving us <I>by any means</I> is the aim of this blog. (For example, of late there's been someone using my name pretending to post as me.)<BR/><BR/>I have to wonder if the individuals resorting to such tactics are really interested in ever really buying, or if they've already written off the possibility of that ever occuring and somehow think that by distorting what we have to say (and have said) they are somehow "getting even" with not being able to buy. As if we are responsible for the state of things ... (It's the old "the messenger gets it" ...)<BR/><BR/>Incidentally, the other day I experienced some vandalism in my front yard. I don't know if it was caused by one of these individuals.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-68630666736539331122007-11-01T11:52:00.000-04:002007-11-01T11:52:00.000-04:00Anon 8:01,A voice of reason. My predictions were ...Anon 8:01,<BR/><BR/>A voice of reason. My predictions were a little higher for the drops, with condo's getting hit hard.<BR/><BR/>No matter how often certain BH's throw up the "strawman" that I said RE always goes up and buy now or be priced out, it is a total fabrication and a desperate one at that.<BR/><BR/>That said, I have maintained and still maintain that a good deal can be found in any market and that, down the road, it really doesn't matter much whether you caught the top or the bottom. Once your house is paid for, it's paid for - whether you started at 300K or 500k.<BR/><BR/>The inability to think in time-frames greater than 2 or 3 years will paralyze many and greatly delay their entry into the market and, thus, the age at which their mortgage is paid-off.<BR/><BR/>I made my two best purchases ever in 2004 and 2005. But, then again, I don't sit on a blog waiting for a crash to cause a bargain to fall into my lap.<BR/><BR/>va.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-48748689930216641702007-11-01T11:01:00.000-04:002007-11-01T11:01:00.000-04:00my prediction 2 years ago was, in the DC area at l...my prediction 2 years ago was, in the DC area at least, about 15% average drops in prices (higher on average in Loudoun and lower in average closer-in) but a very long stagnant period of 3 years or so where prices stay flat, allowing rents and incomes to catch up somewhat to their historical averages. That seems most in line with past boom and bust cycles in the DC area.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-15471297332574567742007-11-01T07:13:00.000-04:002007-11-01T07:13:00.000-04:00Actually to me it seems that most of the disagreem...Actually to me it seems that most of the disagreements here seem to be about some people being in denial that their homes have fallen in value at all, not a disagreement if the fall will be 15% or 20%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-73125086667757782962007-10-31T23:11:00.000-04:002007-10-31T23:11:00.000-04:00Yes, we were cheated, all right! Why should price...Yes, we were cheated, all right! Why should prices ever go up? My parents paid something like $100,000 for their 4 bedroom in Marin County back in 1970. I don't understand why I should have to pay a pennie more! The market is imbalanced out there, and it's the price side that needs to give. I should be able to buy that same house as my parents did!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-69241832862422848412007-10-31T22:56:00.000-04:002007-10-31T22:56:00.000-04:00anon 7:11I think most reasonable people would agre...anon 7:11<BR/><BR/>I think most reasonable people would agree 100% with your comments. I know that I do, more or less. The debate is intended to center on the future of housing prices and the economy in general.<BR/><BR/>Some here (many, actually) are calling for price drops of 50% or more and another Great Depression. David has been forecasting an imminent recession for close to two years.<BR/><BR/>Many here want a crash as they feel, somehow, cheated out of the opportunity to buy a house at 2002 prices. I find it disturbing, not confusing.<BR/><BR/>I've never felt that my opportunity to get ahead was dependent on others' "crashing and burning". It's sad, really.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-23441870534171561752007-10-31T22:11:00.000-04:002007-10-31T22:11:00.000-04:00someone please explain to me the point of this deb...someone please explain to me the point of this debate. housing prices went up like crazy for years, now they are dropping. None of this was unexpected. Economy is still growing. Mortgage rates are still low. Builders are slowing their building so inventory can go down to demand. Again, what really is the debate about? What is left to argue over? whether or not the total correction is 15% or 20% after a +100% increase?<BR/><BR/>Very confused.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-53287473976857055922007-10-31T08:17:00.000-04:002007-10-31T08:17:00.000-04:00Bob wrote: "another grand a year"Try 4 or 5 grand ...Bob wrote: "another grand a year"<BR/><BR/>Try 4 or 5 grand as the differential between a 38% increase and a 40% fall. <BR/><BR/>I'm not saying that a 4 grand savings makes another house affordable, in itself. <BR/><BR/>If prices fall even fifty grand AND there's a break on real estate taxes, the equation works out differently. <BR/><BR/>You can bet that bill-the-landlord runs these computations all the time. <BR/><BR/>The funny part of this is that if he has open LOCs on his other places, and prices fall 30%, he can swoop in and <B>seize</B> the opportunity without playing games with the banks.<BR/><BR/>No guarantees of course.taghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17590019556200898159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-14015232741040555202007-10-31T07:32:00.000-04:002007-10-31T07:32:00.000-04:00kh, you need a tax reduction to be able to afford ...kh, you need a tax reduction to be able to afford another house? How will saving another grand a year afford you another house? Or, are you just being idiotic and trying a reduction to absurdity argument tactic?<BR/><BR/>Typical. I give many factual data references and you give the typical emotional response. Which means, I am likely right and you know it.<BR/>bobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-31025600752575592482007-10-31T06:27:00.000-04:002007-10-31T06:27:00.000-04:00BOB: "EVERYTHIGN POINTS TO MORE PAIN IN THE HOUSIN...BOB: "EVERYTHIGN POINTS TO MORE PAIN IN THE HOUSING MARKET."<BR/><BR/>Ow-ow-OW!<BR/><BR/>No wait, if prices fall, I'll get a tax reduction and I could buy another house.taghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17590019556200898159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-23919144228568423202007-10-30T17:01:00.000-04:002007-10-30T17:01:00.000-04:00Yo Yo Yun you are a shill!And No i will not use a ...Yo Yo Yun you are a shill!<BR/><BR/>And No i will not use a realtor to buy a house. FU!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-61694027652241257202007-10-30T15:31:00.000-04:002007-10-30T15:31:00.000-04:00Lance said, "it's the result of someone else's ide...Lance said, "it's the result of someone else's idea on how price movements are measured. "<BR/><BR/>This is a really confusing statement. Are you saying that someone is making up the median price or their is somehow some human influence into the term median?<BR/><BR/>A median is just statistcal tool used to predict behavior, and is really quite good at it. The key for median is the sample size. You need a large sample size. This is why the median for the US as a whole is better tool then say that of the median of DC. However, due to the local variations involved with the real estate data, it is important to compare apples with apples. Thus, a condo in oklahoms doesnt necessarily equal a condo in DC, or Manhattan.<BR/><BR/>So, whats the point of the median, right? Well, it has a been a vary good tool to indicate what is happening in a real estate market. Just because you don't want to believe it, doesnt make it false.<BR/><BR/>Shiller uses an even more accurate median. He picks a comparable home and evaluates the data. This is why is data is so accurate and valuable. It actually watches similar homes go up and down which makes it a more reliable indicator of value.<BR/><BR/>WHICH, of course is going down like a rock...<BR/><BR/>But, I know lance, statistics and scientific data dont matter. Your street is different, its in dupont, etc..<BR/><BR/>The reall kicker is out of something like 125 million homes in the country, 18 million are vacant. Rents are dropping, home prices are dropping, credit card debt is the highest its ever been, sales of big ticket items are dropping. EVERYTHIGN POINTS TO MORE PAIN IN THE HOUSING MARKET.<BR/><BR/>DEAL WITH IT.<BR/><BR/>BobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-62606021745765569062007-10-30T15:12:00.000-04:002007-10-30T15:12:00.000-04:00It really is ironic how they chastise someone like...It really is ironic how they chastise someone like Va_Investor for supposedly 'slinking' back when they are the ones still 'slinking' in with every anonymous-nonattributable comment they post. Is it any wonder someone like this can't manage to figure out how to get themselves a home without the illusory hope that the economy will collapse and they'll magically be handed it? No balls ... Just a sense of entitlement.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-40881533944416179022007-10-30T15:08:00.000-04:002007-10-30T15:08:00.000-04:00another Anon without the balls to post under their...another Anon without the balls to post under their own name ...Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-6523568011009911352007-10-30T14:50:00.000-04:002007-10-30T14:50:00.000-04:00VA, No it is not ironic when an "anon" posts under...VA, <BR/><BR/>No it is not ironic when an "anon" posts under that declaration. What is "ironic" is that you signed off this board at the time you where posting under VA INVESTOR and promised never to come back. But then you slink back under under "anon". you are the JACKASS! I notice that you your handle is VA what happened to the INVESTOR part...you foolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-10248569584096149612007-10-30T13:37:00.000-04:002007-10-30T13:37:00.000-04:00anon 9:19 ... a year or a month, what I am pointin...anon 9:19 ... a year or a month, what I am pointing out still stands. And more importantly, a BH would be better served going out there and finding the place they really want at the price the want it ... rather than chasing this fictional median/average house. It's a number ... just a number ... and it's the result of someone else's idea on how price movements are measured. Like I've pointed out in past posts, the problem with any analysis involving "average" or "median" is defining what that "average" or "median" is. Back in the '60s and '70s the average family consisted of something like 2 adults and 2.5 kids and they lived in a house that was far far smaller than today. A house under a 1,000 sq ft for this average family wasn't uncommon. It didn't have cable or wireless or a microwave and rarely had a dryer though it did have a clothes line. There was also one bathroom for all to share ... and air conditioning was a luxury as was a garage and wall-to-wall carpenting. It also wasn't a 2 hr commute from work. How does Shiller (sp?)account for these types of differences in amenities and size (and location) when calculating what the average and median prices have done over time?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-24529480481126046072007-10-30T12:19:00.000-04:002007-10-30T12:19:00.000-04:00You know lance, I actually agree that the median p...You know lance, I actually agree that the median price is somewhat useless but then you go and ruin your argument by making another mistake. It was a YoY 18% drop, not a monthly drop so you should have said go find the place for 18% less than you would have paid last year. Of course, that's kind of risky because people might be able to find places that have dropped 18% over prices from a year ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-91796931084526313592007-10-30T11:42:00.000-04:002007-10-30T11:42:00.000-04:00Anon 4:04 said:"that -18% YoY number is for DC onl...Anon 4:04 said:<BR/>"that -18% YoY number is for DC only."<BR/><BR/>You'll latch on to any shred of hope, won't you. You just don't get it, that number only works for you if you are buying the fictious "average/median" house. Go out and try to find it. Oh wait, if it was to be found, you would have already bought, wouldn't you? What you are finding instead is that that average/median change points to a change in what is selling ... not what you want. Yep, you want that dingy condo in that questionable building overlooking a main highway? It's now available ... for 18% less than what you could have paid <I>last month</I> for the desireable place you <B>really</B> want. Go for it!Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-2910637969367985132007-10-30T07:04:00.000-04:002007-10-30T07:04:00.000-04:00"Lance probably doesn't want to admit that a BH tr..."Lance probably doesn't want to admit that a BH tricked him."<BR/><BR/>Tricked him? Yeah... those tricky bubbleheads... always cut and pasting stuff directly from the MRIS site in order to "trick" lance.<BR/><BR/>Damn you are dense.<BR/><BR/>Also, as was already explained to you before... that -18% YoY number is for DC only.<BR/><BR/>That is right, DC, the middle of the city. The definition of "close in."<BR/><BR/>So I guess your moronic theory about close in areas being unaffected has pretty well gone out the window huh?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17510442821859809862007-10-30T06:45:00.000-04:002007-10-30T06:45:00.000-04:00Please explain the difference between a hyphen and...<I>Please explain the difference between a hyphen and a negative sign</I><BR/><BR/><I>Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 222,879,288 $ 353,753,262 - 37.00 %</I><BR/><BR/>I wondered why it read <B>funny</B><BR/><BR/>First of all, the time sequence was reversed. 2007 <B>then</B> 2006, the norm is to put the future on the right, not the left. Although there seemed to be a heading, it was incorrect also.<BR/><BR/>Then instead of minus 37.00 which would be written as:<BR/><BR/><B>-37.00</B><BR/><BR/>It was written as hyphen (delimiter) 37.00:<BR/><BR/><B>- 37.00</B> with a space before the number.<BR/><BR/>Lance probably doesn't want to admit that a BH <B>tricked</B> him.<BR/><BR/>Consider that whenever a stat comes out about how real estate is plunging in Greater Washington, to include Manassas, Jefferson WV, and Southern Maryland, BH's read that as "Dupont Circle is having a fire sale." and "I'll get a place like Lance's for $27,000 down, 1,700/month."<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying that BHs are stupid or deceitful. They, like Lance are reading what they expect to see.<BR/><BR/>Let's see how assessments come out next year. Alexandria publishes their numbers in January. Anyone know when DC, Arlington, etc. releases their numbers?taghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17590019556200898159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-2337114360385420542007-10-29T15:23:00.000-04:002007-10-29T15:23:00.000-04:00Oh, Josh,In case a certain annon accuses me of "hi...Oh, Josh,<BR/><BR/>In case a certain annon accuses me of "hiding" under an anon (ironic?), this is me.<BR/><BR/>va,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25908428649534297152007-10-29T15:18:00.000-04:002007-10-29T15:18:00.000-04:00Come on people,Any comments on the local economics...Come on people,<BR/><BR/>Any comments on the local economics? Or are school-yard taunts the level we aspire to?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-20273799737237013332007-10-29T13:28:00.000-04:002007-10-29T13:28:00.000-04:00"a corporate headquarters or three"....http://dcmu..."a corporate headquarters or three"<BR/><BR/>....<BR/><BR/><BR/>http://dcmud.blogspot.com/2007/10/broadcast-center-one-gets-green-light.html<BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/26aju6<BR/><BR/>.....<BR/><BR/>"The DC Zoning Commission approved the application this Monday for Broadcast Center One, a 300,000 s. f. mixed-use development "Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-33595567908496208972007-10-29T12:53:00.000-04:002007-10-29T12:53:00.000-04:00"if you want to read a hyphen as a negative sign, ..."if you want to read a hyphen as a negative sign, fine "<BR/><BR/>lol<BR/><BR/>Please explain the difference between a hyphen and a negative sign in your own words lance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-18808949259092603692007-10-29T12:51:00.000-04:002007-10-29T12:51:00.000-04:00October 29, 2007 9:24 AM,I agree with you, the cop...October 29, 2007 9:24 AM,<BR/><BR/>I agree with you, the copy/paste job could have been clearer. However, the point was that Lance read it wrong and went and started calling people idiots. And, instead of just stating that he made an honest mistake and apolize for being rude, he continues to defend himself against his antics. <BR/><BR/>Maybe he will go into another BH's caused the downturn tirade, or maybe he will just dissappear again. Either way, he has been proven wrong everystep of the way and wont admit it.<BR/><BR/>If I were him, I would suck it up and eat my crow. And start debating about recovery or crash endpoint. These are the only two topics really left.<BR/><BR/>When will the crash stop?(its at -20%, will it be -30%, or -40%) (Those are not hyphens lance LOL)<BR/><BR/>How long until prices start going back up?<BR/><BR/>BobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com