tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post6990002546037841820..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Prices to Fall Over the Fall & Winter MonthsDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-54418010596625264032009-09-30T03:27:56.122-04:002009-09-30T03:27:56.122-04:00"Same thing for you when you buy it for 500K ..."Same thing for you when you buy it for 500K in 2014 and sell it for 500K in 2060."<br /><br />Exactly! Even if you buy in 2045 at $500K, you will have to wait 20 years or so before you see appreciation. The difference is that your salary in 2045 will be about $250K as well. Its just not worth it to buy right now.<br /><br />Its funny how you prove my point by trying to argue it.<br /><br />"Too bad you didnt buy it in 2002 for 195K like I did."<br /><br />Dont feel bad for me, I just moved here in 2006 just for a gig, like most people. I dont mind renting a house while I work here for the next 3 or 4 years and going back to where I came from. The cheesecake factory and starbucks here taste the same as the one back home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-48012857547727522342009-09-29T15:43:15.259-04:002009-09-29T15:43:15.259-04:00oboe:
It's too bad you're not as entertai...oboe:<br /><br />It's too bad you're not as entertaining now isn't it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-51635728122636891522009-09-29T14:05:03.908-04:002009-09-29T14:05:03.908-04:00If we are in agreement, I'm not sure what we h...<i>If we are in agreement, I'm not sure what we have to clear up. What I should add though is that if inflation increases rapidly...which I believe it will...that will effectively decrease the value of properties even more. So 135 is not unrealistic and completely plausible.<br /><br />Whether CS shows 135 or not is irrelevant. CS is a moving target by which they revise numbers all the time.</i><br /><br /><br />Whoa! That's some entertaining tap-dancing! <br /><br />Tippity-tap-tappity-tip-tap-tap!<br /><br />But the winning comment of the thread goes to 'nonpartisan' with this gem:<br /><br /><i>If government intervenes, then the natural order of things will be all screwed up. If the free market is allowed to rule, then partisan will eat a flock of crows...</i><br /><br />Now *that's* entertainment!oboenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-13447061506087041722009-09-29T08:56:27.814-04:002009-09-29T08:56:27.814-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-16698383181108743202009-09-28T23:03:21.058-04:002009-09-28T23:03:21.058-04:00ANON:
You're a real idiot. In case you don&#...ANON:<br /><br />You're a real idiot. In case you don't know, people have lives beyond posting crap up on this thread for your fulfillment. I hope that clears that part of things up for you at least.<br /><br />Partisan:<br /><br />If we are in agreement, I'm not sure what we have to clear up. What I should add though is that if inflation increases rapidly...which I believe it will...that will effectively decrease the value of properties even more. So 135 is not unrealistic and completely plausible. <br /><br />Whether CS shows 135 or not is irrelevant. CS is a moving target by which they revise numbers all the time.<br /><br />Given the current condition of our economy, the fact that we are printing money like there's no tomorrow, and unemployment rates are getting worse, we have yet to see the worst of it all. It takes time for such negative forces to steer this sinking ship even further into the wrong direction. <br /><br />So far, all rosy pictures and outlooks economists, banks, Realtors, etc have talked about have been farces and lies. What would possibly make me believe CS's numbers are even plausible when their numbers are based on a moving target that so far is going nowhere but down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-9974576244296550982009-09-28T22:40:07.728-04:002009-09-28T22:40:07.728-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-63073504973427305452009-09-28T16:18:46.535-04:002009-09-28T16:18:46.535-04:00OK - now I am lost too Noz. Lets try to clear thi...OK - now I am lost too Noz. Lets try to clear this up. The futures market says Case Shiller for DC will be have the following values<br /><br />Aug 09 = 162.0 <br />Nov 09 = 160.0 (*)<br />Feb 10 = 162.0<br />May 10 = 163.0<br />Aug 10 = 167.0<br />Nov 10 = 160.0<br />May 11 = 165.0<br />Nov 11 = 192.0 (I say it bids down)<br />May 12 = 163.4<br />Nov 12 = 163.4<br /><br />*I am saying, we may get even a bit lower than that even down into the high 150s. But again thats just me and maybe im too bearish.<br /><br />You said we at somepoint bottom at 135. I dont see anyway in the world nominal prices dip down that far. <br /><br />Note, if you are saying we eventually get to 2000-2001 inflation adjusted Case Shiller values I agree with you. My suspicion is that by the time we get to the year 2013, 2000-2001 inflation adjusted prices will be 160-165. <br /><br />Thus my point is, we will never see the actual number, the actual 3 digits "135" ever show up in the case shiller DC prices you seem to think we will see.Partisannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-85627017512305662842009-09-28T15:28:43.305-04:002009-09-28T15:28:43.305-04:00You need to put it into perspective with who'v...You need to put it into perspective with who've I got the argument with...it's not the OP...it's with Partisan. It's not the CS numbers I'm talking about...it's his projections I'm talking about.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-80348878471106074872009-09-28T15:26:10.885-04:002009-09-28T15:26:10.885-04:00OK now I really am clueless. What do you mean &qu...OK now I really am clueless. What do you mean "without CS to begin with"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-40169739442112420512009-09-28T15:00:51.531-04:002009-09-28T15:00:51.531-04:00Because that was the projection without CS to begi...Because that was the projection without CS to begin with.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25791899571327514222009-09-28T14:59:46.092-04:002009-09-28T14:59:46.092-04:00Noz if you knew that, why did you earlier say 150-...Noz if you knew that, why did you earlier say 150-160 is 2000-2001 prices?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-86449316587003226602009-09-28T14:49:56.413-04:002009-09-28T14:49:56.413-04:00ANON:
Noz - you retard, that guy was talking...<b>ANON: <br /> Noz - you retard, that guy was talking about case shiller values of 150-160. It says so clearly at the very beginning of his post. Case shiller 150-160 is 2004 prices.<br /><br /> September 28, 2009 10:11 AM</b><br /><br />I know that you freaking moron...not everyone around here is as clueless as you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-2514573266129900182009-09-28T13:57:40.673-04:002009-09-28T13:57:40.673-04:00"Noz said...By the way, it is quite interesti..."Noz said...By the way, it is quite interesting that some time ago, you didn't even think it'd drop at all...now you're down to 150K to 160K? Wait a minute, isn't that 2000-2001 prices corrected? Indeed it is."<br /><br />Noz - I was talking about case shiller values 150-160 range is well above the 2000 range of 100.Partisannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-56825917593548942562009-09-28T13:03:21.076-04:002009-09-28T13:03:21.076-04:00"So when you finally have paid off your $500K..."So when you finally have paid off your $500K row house bought in 2008, you will get to sell it for exactly $500K in 2060."<br /><br />Same thing for you when you buy it for 500K in 2014 and sell it for 500K in 2060. Too bad you didnt buy it in 2002 for 195K like I did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1918796312010042552009-09-28T11:19:17.781-04:002009-09-28T11:19:17.781-04:00I actually think prices in DC wont go lower than 2...I actually think prices in DC wont go lower than 2004 prices as well, but I also believe they will stay flat for 50 years minimum.<br /><br />So when you finally have paid off your $500K row house bought in 2008, you will get to sell it for exactly $500K in 2060.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-16424511752439655502009-09-28T10:11:28.518-04:002009-09-28T10:11:28.518-04:00"Noz said...By the way, it is quite interesti..."Noz said...By the way, it is quite interesting that some time ago, you didn't even think it'd drop at all...now you're down to 150K to 160K? Wait a minute, isn't that 2000-2001 prices corrected? Indeed it is."<br /><br />Noz - you retard, that guy was talking about case shiller values of 150-160. It says so clearly at the very beginning of his post. Case shiller 150-160 is 2004 prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-76896938564260015372009-09-27T03:47:58.802-04:002009-09-27T03:47:58.802-04:00Oh and Partisan:
YOY RATE may decline..but it'...Oh and Partisan:<br /><br />YOY RATE may decline..but it's still declining...that's what you don't understand.<br /><br />Of course, given all that is happening to this superbly rebounding economy and the huge wave of foreclosures still backed up and increasing, I'll let you continue to believe your delusional ways.<br /><br />By the way, it is quite interesting that some time ago, you didn't even think it'd drop at all...now you're down to 150K to 160K? Wait a minute, isn't that 2000-2001 prices corrected? Indeed it is. <br /><br />Thanks for playing.<br /><br />But as I've always said to you, since you you are so sure of yourself, you should be putting your monies on the line and buying up everything you can. Anything short of that and well...I won't call you a name. You can figure that out yourself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-82803751903610854612009-09-27T03:43:12.420-04:002009-09-27T03:43:12.420-04:00PARTISAN:
Option 7: You're wrong.PARTISAN:<br /><br />Option 7: You're wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-20943226048665600312009-09-25T11:30:29.928-04:002009-09-25T11:30:29.928-04:00Well to the extant that prices are seasonal and go...Well to the extant that prices are seasonal and go down in the Fall and Winter, aren't those less important since they are supporte on fewer transactions? -Jim AAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-92057095152697273482009-09-25T09:38:57.618-04:002009-09-25T09:38:57.618-04:00The job market may be relatively stable in the DC ...The job market may be relatively stable in the DC area, but the fact still remains that homes were (and to an extent still are) overpriced.<br /><br />While a potential buyer may still have a job, they still need to get a loan to buy the house, and lending has tightened up considerably.<br /><br />And for that matter, people aren't inclined to stretch themselves to the limit in the hopes that they can flip the house in a couple of years.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07317858463978974538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-48913878482752137842009-09-24T23:51:06.572-04:002009-09-24T23:51:06.572-04:00"Partisan said...if government intervenes, th..."Partisan said...if government intervenes, then the natural order of things will be all screwed up. If the free market is allowed to rule, then partisan will eat a flock of crows"<br /><br />Could be my man! Could be! But if your ace in the hole is the gubbamint will quit intervening, I wouldnt hold my breath would you?<br /><br />In all seriousness, even before the gubbamint mumbo jumbo, I noticed that the local DC area inventory was plunging. It was really strange, in most of the rest of the country it was still teasing out a peak, yet in the DC area (especially NOVA) it clearly peaked in 2006 and never looked back. <br /><br />It was at that point I realized, hey this thing could wrap up much sooner than the intellegencia on this blog realized. Thus, I made a calculated risk to goad people into making predictions based on the assumption they were NOT watchng inventory and other fundamental indicators of supply and demand. <br /><br />In that regard, you were an easy mark. All you said was "bell curves complete" or some other such nonsense. Maybe you did focus on fundamentals, but your hamfisted comments didnt reflect it. So I chose to see if I could tease out a bet from you and I got a doozy (115 for god sakes)!!!!<br /><br />Kudos to you though for sticking with that call. Even though you dont pay attention to fundamentals like income, supply and demand, you had the courage of your conviction that "all bell curves complete" ;)Partisannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-36303269555817466972009-09-24T23:11:31.406-04:002009-09-24T23:11:31.406-04:00I have a hard time believing prices will decrease ...I have a hard time believing prices will decrease in this area (the DC Metro area). We have very few foreclosures and jobs are increases. We will see.Jonathan Bunn- Loudoun Realtorhttp://www.therealestatebakery.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-83879511252683672042009-09-24T20:11:30.835-04:002009-09-24T20:11:30.835-04:00if government intervenes, then the natural order o...if government intervenes, then the natural order of things will be all screwed up. If the free market is allowed to rule, then partisan will eat a flock of crowsnonpartisanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10669991779523375897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-85788374505079713662009-09-24T16:20:18.551-04:002009-09-24T16:20:18.551-04:00Here is what will happen (with regard to Case Shil...Here is what will happen (with regard to Case Shiller - DC):<br /><br />1. Housing prices will rise this month, and possibly next month after that too.<br /><br />2. Housing prices will stagnate and start to fall over the winter - slipping back into the 160(s) range possibly breaking into the high 150s<br /><br />3. The falling will work NonPartisan and Noz into a frenzy, all the while I will be pointing out the YOY rate of decline will continue to shrivel.<br /><br />4. Prices will rise next spring and the YOY change rate will go positive, showing that the bottom was somewhere in the high 150s low 160s range.<br /><br />5. Non-Partisan will eat his crow as he admits his 115 prediction is unlikely. Noz will not admit to being wrong and will resort to calling me and everyone else an idiot for reporting the data as it comes out.<br /><br />6. James or David pulls the plug on this blog as its obvious there is nothing else interesting happening and all of us move on with our lives.Partisannoreply@blogger.com