tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post8755714137322939719..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Case Shiller Housing Index Shows Major Prices DeclinesDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-25610162758037404632008-02-29T21:47:00.000-05:002008-02-29T21:47:00.000-05:00"Oil just hit $103 per barrel. (as in: this mornin..."Oil just hit $103 per barrel. (as in: this morning, Feb 29th 2008)<BR/><BR/>Yep, that's pointless to everyone in the United States today! Thanks for clearing that up."<BR/>-----------------<BR/>The futures traders currently paying those prices are going to get burned. <BR/><BR/>At present, there's a slight difference between supply and demand for light sweet crude, which is used for transportation fuel, but there is no oil shortage and nothing to justify $100-plus per barrel for a sustained period. <BR/><BR/>Plus, even $40 a barrel was enough for boards of directors at big oil to vote to spend money on new exploration in deep water, in sands, and other ares that is now in progress.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-76686265228299927762008-02-29T09:50:00.000-05:002008-02-29T09:50:00.000-05:00Oil just hit $103 per barrel. (as in: this morning...Oil just hit $103 per barrel. (as in: this morning, Feb 29th 2008)<BR/><BR/>Yep, that's pointless to everyone in the United States today! Thanks for clearing that up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1873009883959526992008-02-28T22:48:00.000-05:002008-02-28T22:48:00.000-05:00Jeez, this discussion is all pointless and silly. ...Jeez, this discussion is all pointless and silly. But at least it's nice to see Lance staking out his turf again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-57339734386396797502008-02-28T19:22:00.000-05:002008-02-28T19:22:00.000-05:00anon said:"Either (a) energy will become much much...anon said:<BR/>"Either (a) energy will become much much MUCH more expensive (and the suburbs are toast) or (b) we just cant meet all our needs and need to re-arrange our living structure (and the suburbs are toast)."<BR/><BR/>Yes, we will have to re-arrange our living structure ... But we always have ... The suburbs won't be "toast".<BR/><BR/>People first moved into places like what is now called Logan Circle and the U Street Cooridor because tram tracks were laid down and people willing to take a tram to work could get much cheaper housing there then they could down by what is now call the Convention Center/Chinatown (was called "downtown" then.) This area even had a name which was something like "the tram neighborhoods". They were an early version of today's suburbs which the automobile made possible. Today no-one would think of them as "suburban". They've changed ... we've changed. People adapt.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-66661644659023884622008-02-28T18:06:00.000-05:002008-02-28T18:06:00.000-05:00"Just hope when you buy or sell, you aren't caught..."Just hope when you buy or sell, you aren't caught in the downside of one of those cycles."<BR/><BR/>I'm the person who wrote the "screed" at the top of this comments page, and I agree with you.<BR/><BR/>The point is: Which cycle is now ending, and which is just beginning? And how long do the cycles seem to run? (the one ending now dominated for 50 years)<BR/><BR/>I think this has been a great conversation over all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45576252242389768212008-02-28T15:53:00.000-05:002008-02-28T15:53:00.000-05:00"But what happens when all this R&D that is being ..."But what happens when all this R&D that is being conducted (with much, much more investment and more research to come) to develop alternative energy comes to fruition? This suburban/urban, good schools vs. walkability and rampant crime, stuff goes in cycles. Just hope when you buy or sell, you aren't caught in the downside of one of those cycles."<BR/><BR/>I keep thinking that way too. The thing is in order for your and my thinking to be right, there needs to be a single, replacement for oil - a plug and play "silver bullet" if you will. <BR/><BR/>The problem is, the more I read, and the more I listen to a friend who works for BP - there is no such "single" thing. Alot of these eggehead types think our needs are so great that in order to sustain ourselves, multiple, competing energy sources will have to all be put in place, all with differing needs of infrastructure, distribution, adaptation of end uses, etc. etc. Thus, unless there is that "silver bullet" breakthrough. Either (a) energy will become much much MUCH more expensive (and the suburbs are toast) or (b) we just cant meet all our needs and need to re-arrange our living structure (and the suburbs are toast).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-3923115704381858492008-02-28T15:46:00.000-05:002008-02-28T15:46:00.000-05:00said said asked:"Lance, I was playing devil's advo...said said asked:<BR/>"Lance, I was playing devil's advocate by asking you that question. But what you've failed to address is manufacturing. In your vision of the future, no one appears to fabricate anything any more. Where will computers come from? Clothes? Will they all be flown in on jets? Don't forget the high price of fuel! No, manufacturing will be what it was: centralized within regions."<BR/><BR/>The clothes, computers, etc. will come from where they are already coming from. China. <BR/><BR/>The "comparative advantage" for the 1st world is services. Services are more profitable and require a higher skill set overall than manufacturing. (Why do you think IBM stopped making laptops and sold the business to the Chinese firm Lenovo? Or that clothes are no longer made in the USA ... or even Taiwan for that matter?) Additionally, countries such as China can at least for the moment manufacture with far less requlatory constraints than we can here. From what I hear, the smog in Beiging is really really bad. Just like the famed London "fog" used to be back in its industrial hayday.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45848433346291264402008-02-28T13:38:00.000-05:002008-02-28T13:38:00.000-05:00"You can live in a country, non-suburban setting, ..."You can live in a country, non-suburban setting, and not have to drive into a craphole like D.C. or NYC. There are food markets, other stores and services that aren't located in crime-infested urban ratholes.<BR/>The UPS man can also deliver a lot via Internet nowadays."<BR/><BR/>Wow - this may be the stupidest comment I have ever seen. You so are not getting the anony's point. Where are these non urban "food markets other stores and services" going to get their stuff from? Will this non-urban setting have the critical mass to make and sell all this stuff cheap enough to overcome the cost plus fuel cost to transport it to you. <BR/><BR/>Maybe the people in these non-urban settings are just so wealthy that they can pay that much more than the urban dwellers do to get it shipped in? Or maybe they can hire people to come on site to make/grow it for them? Then again, once you do that arent you in fact making an URBAN area!!!<BR/><BR/>Economies of scale is a bitch to overcome. If you want to live in the boonies, get ready to pay bigtime (like helicopter wealth) to pay for all this stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-73541730889035966582008-02-28T13:23:00.000-05:002008-02-28T13:23:00.000-05:00This is discussion is getting silly. The notion ha...This is discussion is getting silly. The notion has become that cities will now forever add residents and the suburbs will lose them because of the price of oil. <BR/><BR/>But what happens when all this R&D that is being conducted (with much, much more investment and more research to come) to develop alternative energy comes to fruition? This suburban/urban, good schools vs. walkability and rampant crime, stuff goes in cycles. Just hope when you buy or sell, you aren't caught in the downside of one of those cycles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-90261326949205620332008-02-28T13:14:00.000-05:002008-02-28T13:14:00.000-05:00" hikes up the mountain in my backyard."I have no ..." hikes up the mountain in my backyard."<BR/><BR/>I have no doubt that you are overweight. LOL!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-85576985993823844822008-02-28T12:44:00.000-05:002008-02-28T12:44:00.000-05:00Lance, I was playing devil's advocate by asking yo...Lance, I was playing devil's advocate by asking you that question. But what you've failed to address is manufacturing. In your vision of the future, no one appears to fabricate anything any more. Where will computers come from? Clothes? Will they all be flown in on jets? Don't forget the high price of fuel! No, manufacturing will be what it was: centralized within regions.<BR/><BR/>Urbanization. Get used to it.<BR/>--------------------------------<BR/><BR/>You can live in a country, non-suburban setting, and not have to drive into a craphole like D.C. or NYC. There are food markets, other stores and services that aren't located in crime-infested urban ratholes.<BR/>The UPS man can also deliver a lot via Internet nowadays.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-91810694016731837952008-02-28T09:49:00.000-05:002008-02-28T09:49:00.000-05:00"kh" typically blathered: "The QOL is in the city...."kh" typically blathered: "The QOL is in the city. Fewer want to watch the grass grow compared to those who enjoy the services and entertainment of the city."<BR/><BR/>Is it really? You don't "know" what "most" people want - idiot.<BR/>You also have no idea what "QOL is.<BR/><BR/>I like to go fishing and cut wood in the backyard for my stone fireplaces, and take hikes up the mountain in my backyard.<BR/><BR/>If I could telecommute from my country house (i.e. Cumberland Maryland area) I would sell my place here and rarely set foot in the city again. I bet there are many who feel this way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-38374294858440926132008-02-28T09:47:00.000-05:002008-02-28T09:47:00.000-05:00People in the countryside will still need to eat, ...People in the countryside will still need to eat, which means food must be trucked into a market for them, and then they must drive to the market to retrieve the food. Unless they are going to do their own farming, which is virtually impossible for carnivores, and requires petroleum based fertilizers (HPK, look it up) and machinery, which will be expensive, not to mention that all that farming will be a full time job, thus preventing the rural telecommuter from telecommuting in the first place.<BR/><BR/>(Food prices are steadily rising NOW as a result of higher fuel prices)<BR/><BR/>Lance, I was playing devil's advocate by asking you that question. But what you've failed to address is manufacturing. In your vision of the future, no one appears to fabricate anything any more. Where will computers come from? Clothes? Will they all be flown in on jets? Don't forget the high price of fuel! No, manufacturing will be what it was: centralized within regions.<BR/><BR/>Urbanization. Get used to it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-7009677721097768842008-02-27T23:29:00.000-05:002008-02-27T23:29:00.000-05:00"One sentence says, "who cares what people think, ..."One sentence says, "who cares what people think, live where it makes you happy."<BR/><BR/>The other sentence says, "what kind of home will put on more of a front and make people think I am a big shot."<BR/><BR/>Get your story straight."<BR/><BR/>I like ripping on Lance as much as the next guy, but I think he is saying that location will be the driving factor (i.e. the McMansion is toast).<BR/><BR/><BR/>"Lance said: "My high-level "guess" is that commuting will become far less of a factor in determining where one lives since so much our work can be done either remotely from home or via a relatively short jet flight."<BR/><BR/>But won't that gut the value of your home and living in the city?"<BR/><BR/>It will gut them big time - but the city will retain some value for those who can only do their jobs in person, if you will. The suburbs will be absolutely devastated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-46961685812046444312008-02-27T21:45:00.000-05:002008-02-27T21:45:00.000-05:00"But won't that gut the value of your home and liv..."But won't that gut the value of your home and living in the city?"<BR/><BR/>The QOL is in the city. Fewer want to watch the grass grow compared to those who enjoy the services and entertainment of the city.taghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17590019556200898159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-7863146228753907392008-02-27T20:47:00.000-05:002008-02-27T20:47:00.000-05:00anon said:"One sentence says, "who cares what peop...anon said:<BR/>"One sentence says, "who cares what people think, live where it makes you happy."<BR/><BR/>The other sentence says, "what kind of home will put on more of a front and make people think I am a big shot."<BR/><BR/>Get your story straight."<BR/><BR/>Your gross misinterpretation of what was said speaks volumes about where you are coming from. Hint, neither of your sentences is a correct interpretation of what I said.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-33932009500592654832008-02-27T20:45:00.000-05:002008-02-27T20:45:00.000-05:00said said... "Lance said: "My high-level "guess" i...said said... <BR/>"Lance said: "My high-level "guess" is that commuting will become far less of a factor in determining where one lives since so much our work can be done either remotely from home or via a relatively short jet flight."<BR/><BR/>But won't that gut the value of your home and living in the city?"<BR/><BR/>I guess you missed the part where I said "Other factors such as nexus to one's interests (personal and/or work-related) will become the determining factor."<BR/><BR/>i.e., people will live where they need/want face time for personal and/or work reasons. For the programmer writing from Texas, the rural location works since he doesn't require all that much face time with the people he works with. His personal side can be (and is) disassociated from his business side. He could be living in India and get the same work done. For say a diplomat or a lobbyist or other "shaker and mover" ... they need/want more face time. Mingling in person with those in their "industry" is essential. Their social life is more "work" than personal since that is where they conduct their business "deals" ... They need physical proximity to those in their business. Living in rural Texas or India won't work for them. Nor will living in an exhurb McMansion in my opinion ... at least not until such time that the McMansion areas develop a critical mass of such like type individuals.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-35299421792301196152008-02-27T16:31:00.000-05:002008-02-27T16:31:00.000-05:00Lance said: "My high-level "guess" is that commut...Lance said: <I>"My high-level "guess" is that commuting will become far less of a factor in determining where one lives since so much our work can be done either remotely from home or via a relatively short jet flight."</I><BR/><BR/>But won't that gut the value of your home and living in the city?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45407662826188875572008-02-27T16:04:00.000-05:002008-02-27T16:04:00.000-05:00"Other factors such as nexus to one's interests (p..."Other factors such as nexus to one's interests (personal and/or work-related) will become the determining factor."<BR/><BR/>"Will the McMansions of the exhurbs be as valued in such a world? What about the downtown condos?"<BR/>-----------------------------<BR/><BR/>One sentence says, "who cares what people think, live where it makes you happy."<BR/><BR/>The other sentence says, "what kind of home will put on more of a front and make people think I am a big shot."<BR/><BR/>Get your story straight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-51323201759162297412008-02-27T15:58:00.001-05:002008-02-27T15:58:00.001-05:00"I think suburbia is there to stay. What will chan..."I think suburbia is there to stay. What will change is how the workforce will interact in the future. Instead of going to the office telecommuting and video conferencing will become common place. My company for instance, a Sillicon Valley tech giant, encourages telecommuting. I work out of rural Texas with the help of a 10 Mbps broadband link. No commute there."<BR/><BR/>You better pray that your vision of the future will not come to pass. Imagine instead that the job went not to the guy from "rural Texas" but instead to the guy from "rural Rājasthān" after all he's just as educated, hard working, and will do the job for 1/3 the price. Face time may be needed from time to time, but once everyone is a "planeride" away, it doesnt really matter where they live. <BR/><BR/>Imagine too what that will do to suburbia. Suddenly, there is no reason to live there at all. The telecommuting society will move further out and get the true slice of nature that suburbia only hints about (just like you do in rural Texas). Also, for those remaining near a city who need "face time", why live in the suburbs when suddenly there is so much less competition for the close in housing? If your vision of the future comes to pass, suburbia is doomed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-45493036426030494592008-02-27T15:58:00.000-05:002008-02-27T15:58:00.000-05:00From the Atlantic article mentioned above:"Many of...From the Atlantic article mentioned above:<BR/><BR/>"Many of the fringe counties in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, for instance, are projecting big budget deficits in 2008. Only Washington itself is expecting a large surplus. Fifteen years ago, this budget situation was reversed. "<BR/><BR/>LOL! The best part? Its TRUE! I love it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-15384958390305868032008-02-27T15:06:00.000-05:002008-02-27T15:06:00.000-05:00landed gentry asked:"What will be different moving...landed gentry asked:<BR/>"What will be different moving forward from here? If you wanted to get out ahead of the next wave of life-shaping factors, and your timeline for buying a home was within the next ten years, where do you think you would be making that purchase?"<BR/><BR/>Good post. My high-level "guess" is that commuting will become far less of a factor in determining where one lives since so much our work can be done either remotely from home or via a relatively short jet flight. Other factors such as nexus to one's <I>interests</I> (personal <B>and/or</B> work-related) will become the determining factor. People will have greater choice ... not being tied down to specific cities/places simply because they <I>must</I> live there for work ... as that will be less and less the case. Combine that with the fact that the world economy is being a single unified economy ... with the Western nations taking on the responsibilities (and priviledges) or directing the whole shebang ... and we have interesting opportunities and challenges out there. Will the McMansions of the exhurbs be as valued in such a world? What about the downtown condos?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216089306021385355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-16080004660689222822008-02-27T14:58:00.000-05:002008-02-27T14:58:00.000-05:00I worked in Silver Spring when it was a slum... mo...I worked in Silver Spring when it was a slum... more than ten years ago. Anyone who knows anything about Silver Spring knows that retail and commercial enterprises have rebounded in Silver Spring.<BR/><BR/>http://www.downtownsilverspring.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-68240813508642754822008-02-27T14:37:00.000-05:002008-02-27T14:37:00.000-05:00Well, I wrote that "screed" about why the landscap...Well, I wrote that "screed" about why the landscape is the way it is today, and where it is heading in the future. <BR/><BR/>Yet all I needed to do was reference an Atlantic article, and I would have saved myself a lot of time and effort. <BR/><BR/>Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting.<BR/><BR/>(By the way, my name, "Landed Gentry", is meant to be ironic)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-12869635912785372412008-02-27T14:34:00.000-05:002008-02-27T14:34:00.000-05:00I think suburbia is there to stay. What will chang...I think suburbia is there to stay. What will change is how the workforce will interact in the future. Instead of going to the office telecommuting and video conferencing will become common place. My company for instance, a Sillicon Valley tech giant, encourages telecommuting. I work out of rural Texas with the help of a 10 Mbps broadband link. No commute there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com