tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post9212147520015580432..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Flashback 2005: Ken Fisher Says He's Confident There's No Housing BubbleDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-65392573005681967292008-07-23T16:18:00.000-04:002008-07-23T16:18:00.000-04:00In defense of Ken against Anonymous...1.) He is o...In defense of Ken against Anonymous...<BR/><BR/>1.) He is one financial actor that has made much more doing his investement business than his books.<BR/><BR/>and<BR/><BR/>2.) What he is saying is that IF the market believes there is a housing bubble, then that knowledge should get reflected in the price of houses. And therefore that risk should be "priced" as economists like to say. To put it another way... What people believe DOES cause price. <BR/><BR/>To sum this up I see three alternatives. One, that the market did not believe there was a bubble. Or, two, that the market believed that the bubble would not be severe. Or, three, that ALL players in the market thought they could still come out ahead even through a bubble (this would be very interesting to analyze). It is almost certainly the case of the loan salespeople (not the same as the people loaning the money). But, I suspect the house purchaser often had a "worst case" scenario that did not consider absorbing all the costs of forclosure.Scott Heberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04086678467489636804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1959212981583003242008-07-19T12:32:00.000-04:002008-07-19T12:32:00.000-04:00Thanks for posting.Another flaw in his reasoning: ...Thanks for posting.<BR/><BR/>Another flaw in his reasoning: "real bubbles are seldom referred to as bubbles in the press until after they've burst, so there's little need to worry now." In other words, what people call something causes it. If no one tells you that you seem to have lung cancer, then you don't have it. No need to stop smoking or go to the doctor...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-41538445105134097762008-07-19T07:31:00.000-04:002008-07-19T07:31:00.000-04:00The financial actors earn their money not from the...The financial actors earn their money not from their own investments but from publishing books.<BR/><BR/>ManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-76744153300169970602008-07-19T00:53:00.000-04:002008-07-19T00:53:00.000-04:00bostonbubble said...Love the flashbacks. Keep 'em ...bostonbubble said...<BR/><I><B>Love</B> the flashbacks. Keep 'em coming.</I><BR/><BR/>Hey, thanks. The next two flashbacks are coming on July 25 and July 28. To meet the three year anniversary mark, they both really should appear on July 28. But to give this blog more of an even flow, I decided to space them apart.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15243567377599238583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-18387043458530332002008-07-18T21:17:00.000-04:002008-07-18T21:17:00.000-04:00But of course the bubble riders don't remember peo...But of course the bubble riders don't remember people calling 'em bubbles before the burst, because THOSE WEREN'T THE PEOPLE THEY WERE LISTENING TOO. Kind of like the current administration maintaining that the extended insurgency in Iraq was unforseable. It wasn't unforseeable, people forsaw it. But those weren't the people they were listening to. <BR/><BR/>In all but the simplest endeavors, people will say different things. You really DO have to listen to a number of different viewpoints, hear them out and make a decision. Most people gravitate to the simple consensus position if there is one. If most people say A, than A it is, and we'll ignore the wingnuts, tinfoil hatters, non-conformists, radical right/left wingers who say B,C,D and on to Z. But after the fact, you'll often find out who was right. It's one thing to say that you went with the crowd and assumed you'd be safe. But don't say that you weren't warned. <BR/>--Jim A.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-32101111760260051532008-07-18T10:02:00.000-04:002008-07-18T10:02:00.000-04:00Love the flashbacks. Keep 'em coming.<B><I>Love</I></B> the flashbacks. Keep 'em coming.bostonbubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12009292091012977672noreply@blogger.com