The
Federal Reserve Board is having its next meeting on
October 24 - 25th. During the past two meetings the Federal Reserve has
paused held short term interest rates steady.
Will they pause hold rates steady once again?Reasons Not to Lower Rates:- Inflation Worries. As "readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures."
- Attract Inflow of Foreign Capitol. (Ensure the dollar does not tank)
Reasons Not to Raise Rates: - Recession Fears "The moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing"
- Don't want to cause a meltdown in the housing market. As the housing market activity is already "cooling considerably"
The Federal Reserve Board is trapped. Captain Bernanke is trying to steer the U.S.S. Economy but in all directions (raising or lowering rates) there are icebergs.
What will captain Bernanke do? He will just sit tight and hope the icebergs melt on their own accord. [Meanwhile quietly cursing Greenspan for directing the ship into an iceberg field.] Meanwhile, the passengers on the U.S.S. economy are busy partying and trashing the ship making it more vulnerable to an iceberg collision. [No, I'm not suggesting the U.S.S. Economy is going to sink andthat we we fall into a depression. What I'm suggesting is that the ship is very vulnerable is very very likely to be in a recession by 1Q or 2Q 2007.]
It is very likely that captain Bernanke will, once again, hold rates steady later this month. They are in a very tough position.
Posts
Pausing can be done once, and only once, until the next move is made, up or down. You cannot have another pause while you are currently paused. All you can have while currently paused is holding steady. So the next update from the fed will be a holding steady, not a pause.
ReplyDeleteFor my money, I think Bernanke is doing a pretty good job. Interest rate hikes don't show up in the economy for several months, so I think Bernanke is just waiting to see how much the 17 straight rate hikes affected the economy.
ReplyDeleteI_Will_Not_Cooperate said...
ReplyDelete"It really dosen't matter anyhow, if the rate goes up or down. As Lance says, "real estate always go's up". So there should be no problem....;( "
I never said that. Please do not put words in my mouth. If you are not intelligent enough to understand what I DID say, then it is best just not to comment on my postings.
I believe that they are getting behind the curve on inflation. Wages are going thru the roof and rents are going up fast. The world economy is booming, so these factors may not change, and the fed may need to raise rates. But they have waited too long before doing so. I don't believe they can fight inflation and save the housing market at the same time. Since the housing market is toast they need to focus on inflation.
ReplyDeleteRates will be held steady until spring of 2007 and we can expect rate cuts to begin before summer.
ReplyDeleteAll of which certainly will not re-inflate the housing bubble but it'll likely prevent the RE market from a major crash.
http://tinyurl.com/eseet
ReplyDeleteICEBERG DEAD AHEAD!
Going out on my tin foil limb here...
ReplyDeleteI think Bernanke will lower rates-- just this once-- days ahead of the mid-term elections on November 7th, but the decision will come with a stern warning about possible future hikes needed to address inflation.
The news will, of course, get buried under an avalanche of campaign, terror, a bin Laden surfacing, Saddam's verdict, and a slew of celebrity snooze... er, news.
Just thinking out loud.
DC Housing Bubble Blues
I agree with Chip. Too rosey to think they will lower early next year. Too much inflation. If they do lower, it will be interesting to see where the 10 year ends up.
ReplyDeleteGiven the 2008 election will be just around the corner next summer I think it is almost a sure bet interest-rates will be lowered. Once interest rates are cut I think we can expect the media to report about how this will have a positive affect the housing market which in turn will help sway those “bubble-sitting” into the market. The media will report on the increased sales activity and the psychology which currently keeps prospective home-owners away will likely change. Of course I don`t see the housing bubble re-inflating but I think we can expect to the RE market to improveg should the feds to cut rates.
ReplyDeleteYAWNNNNN ... Will someone please wake me up when Armagedon hits? I'm going to want to pick up some of these "pennies on the dollars" houses with all the money I've been able to put aside having made wise buying decisions in the past under all kinds of market conditions. Va_Investor? You ready for the buying spree?
ReplyDeleteThe real bubble question - what's the over-under on when this board's weekly page-loads falls below 20,000? At this rate, I give it about a month.
ReplyDeleteI am a true bubble believer, but now with price drops not happening in my market( condos in Columbia, howard county), I am convinced I should by now in this temporary lull in a sea appreciation. I hate to give in, but if I don't buy now perhaps I will regret it next year.
ReplyDeleteHousing prices will continue to fall for the next 5 to 7 years. This is how housing bubbles work. Do a little research into the history of housing bubbles, and you will see for yourself.
ReplyDeleteThe super housing bubble that has just popped, may even be as bad as Japan's supper housing bubble that popped in the early 90's, going down 15 years strait. I know it will be that way in Florida for sure, and maybe in California, Phoenix, and DC also.
Everything I read here over the past year seemed to indicated that the collapse was coming soon. It keeps getting pushed further and further back. It is going to happen in 2008 now, right? Well, if you keep saying something will happen for long enough, you just might appear to be correct eventually.
ReplyDeleteThe Sun is going to go Supernova on us in the future, but I'm not going to panic about that now. However, mark my words: The Sun is going to turn into a Supernova and roast the Earth, boiling away the oceans. Earth will be a charred, dry nugget at that point, and all real estate will be worthless.
TTJ
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“YAWNNNNN ... Will someone please wake me up when Armagedon hits? I'm going to want to pick up some of these "pennies on the dollars" houses with all the money I've been able to put aside having made wise buying decisions in the past under all kinds of market conditions. Va_Investor? You ready for the buying spree?”
Why wait? It’s “never a bad time to buy” Lance. Go out there and see if you can knock the inventory down a notch or two. Hell, start an “investment club” so you can pool the money and really make a dent in inventory.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Housing prices will continue to fall for the next 5 to 7 years. This is how housing bubbles work. Do a little research into the history of housing bubbles, and you will see for yourself."
So, can we start counting down that 5 to 7 years now? Or must we wait for housing prices to actually stop going up first? (My zip was up 10% YoY as of the last numbers in MRIS ...)
Who knows what the Fed will do! More importantly, look for risk premiums to jump 1 to 1.5% on mortgage loans within two years as delinquencies and foreclosures rise.
ReplyDeleteThis is the big factor that most people are overlooking. Mortgages are currently priced as if they are risk free instruments, when in fact that couldn't be farther from the truth.
and lance said - "having made wise buying decisions in the past under all kinds of market conditions."
lance, when you first came on this blog, didn't you say you were living in your first place? what a tangled web you weave.
Yep, home values will fall 10% per year for 7 years.
ReplyDeleteI've got my eye on a $1,000,000 property in Potomac, MD. I'm going to scoop it up for $300K.
Blood in the streets!
ReplyDeleteBeltsville,
ReplyDeleteI'm in the same boat, although looking at SFH's in the howard co. area. Have you tried any of the auction sites? That's what I'm looking at right now.
It's very frustrating, because rents are rising and yet sales prices haven't fallen nearly enough. The strong jobs market and the building restrictions in Howard county are probably going to keep prices inflated. Meanwhile, in neighboring Montgomery County and Baltimore County, rents have dropped.
It seems that those areas that had alot of speculative activity will have downward pressure on rentals, and vice versa.
With kids in school, I may just have to overpay for the stability.
John Fontaine said:
ReplyDelete"lance, when you first came on this blog, didn't you say you were living in your first place? what a tangled web you weave."
John, sorry, but I think it's your memory that gotten itself into a tangled web. Nope, I never said that. Perhaps you are confusing "dream home" with "first place"? Check the archives you'll see I've extensively talked about prior purchases ... And that may be where you confusion comes from. I've several times talked about buying my first condo here in the DC area back in '96 ... (which incidentally wasn't my first purchase ... having bought a townhouse in another state back in the late 80s .. which I only lived in a few months before fate brought me here to Washington and I reverted to being a renter ... while I rented out that townhouse to others.) Btw, don't feel bad about jumping to conclusions. I've noticed that that is a common trait shared by bubbleheads. Actually, the whole bubblehead theory of armaghedon making house prices affordable to them is based on a series of bad assumptions ... rather than facts and more importantly "what has been in the past." good luck thought to you ... I hope you're starting to realize that you're going to need to depend on yourself to buy and not on some general calamity to hit the economy.
"Your comment has been saved and will be visible after blog owner approval.
ReplyDeletethis blog sucks now. "
True. The only bubble that seems to be bursting is this blog's readership numbers:
http://tinyurl.com/ydx7gr
Your comment has been saved and will be visible after blog owner approval.
ReplyDeletethis blog sucks now.
_________________________
Agree! I think Va_Investor is a creation of David to drum up "business"!
crispy&cole
NOVA Fence Sitter reporting in. Just went to a bunch of open houses in Arlington. Very little traffic besides myself. One observation is at two open houses either one of the other shoppers (for lack of a better term) or the realtor mentioned they had another investment property they were waiting to put on the market. So I think there is still alot of inventory waiting in the wings. Question for the realtors out there (Lance)? When the realtor says their client is motivated is that a hint for me low ball and if so what's a good ball park for a low ball 10-15%? And if that is the case why don't they just lower the asking price in the first place?
ReplyDeleteNOVA Fence Sitter
va_investor said...
ReplyDelete"Hey Lance,
Howya doing? It is getting somewhat boring waiting for the sky to fall."
I'm doing fine Va_Investor. I know what you mean about the "sky is gonna fall" thing starting to get a bit boring. Have you noticed how little time David spends on here nowadays? I suspect even he has realized that there's no bubble out there. I bet he's out there now looking for his dream house ...
historically hasn't the stock market faired better than real estate
ReplyDeleteif your looking for an investment..now is definitely not the time to buy real estate...historically the stock market has faired better
ReplyDeletejust buy gold while everything else goes down,also silver
ReplyDeleteLance said...
ReplyDelete“Actually, the whole bubblehead theory of armaghedon making house prices affordable to them is based on a series of bad assumptions ... rather than facts”
Lance, facts? I mean really. What type of facts are you referring to? After all, according to you (read the archives) inventory, foreclosures, ARMs resetting, mean (and I quote) “ABSOLUTLY NOTHING”.
So, here we are again. You mention “facts”, but have yet to give any, nor recommend any.
Oh wait, I do remember one tidbit of info you were willing to give us, what was it again? Oh yea it was:
Lance said...
“there is never a bad time to buy”
July 22, 2006 8:04 AM
So Lance, take a little of your own advice and knock some of this inventory down for us, you’d better hurry. Winter is setting in and you’ve got to protect your paper equity.
Can one buy a foreclosed home without cash??? How do new homebuyer buy's a foreclosure??
ReplyDeleteva_investor said...
ReplyDelete"Lots of good foreclosures out there people. But that would require some effort! Easier plan is just to pray to the crash God and wait for that deal to fall into your lap.
NOVA Fence Sitter is at least out there looking. Doing his homework, so he will recognize an opportunity when one presents itself. Most seem content to sit around misquoting Lance. Yeah, that will really get you ahead."
Misquote? Please, Lance is rather proud of his “no bad time to buy” stance, please don’t take that away from him.
Hey, I’m out there looking too. No need to be in any hurry though. Those foreclosure lists are still growing, DOM is getting longer, hell, it might be time to toss out a few low balls. Scary thing those low balls, you’d had better love the house, the seller just might accept.
va_investor said...
ReplyDelete“If I told you, I would have to kill you. Seriously, had I not been continually and roundly insulted by you guys, I might be inclined to help.”
Oh thine great and powerful real estate counselor, why hath thou forsaken us? Please forgive us of our trespasses; will ye smite us yet more? Verily, verily thine father Carlton Sheets has shewn us the way, but we hath forsaken his prophet! Have mercy on us!
Anon at 6:31 AM:
ReplyDelete1. No, you cannot buy a foreclosure at auction without cash, other than (possibly) some FHA/VA/HUD properties, which are generally junk. Bank-owned properties are a different story.
2. Foreclosures are not for amateurs.
3. If you are intent on bidding on a property, consult an attorney before doing so -- you know, of course, that all free advice, including mine, is worth what you've paid for it.
va_investor said...
ReplyDelete“originaldcer,
Aren't you getting bored with the same debate on this board day after day? Your point about the purpose of this Blog is well taken, but would be very tedious.”
Ok va_, then let’s get back on topic.
If the Fed holds/pauses/does not increase rates, I don’t think it will have significant positive impact. Inventory is still growing, foreclosures are still rising, wages are still not keeping up, sales are still down, ARMs are still re-setting, and we probably have not felt the full effect of the last 13 of the 17 rate hikes in a row.
Whacha think va_? Would a pause slow down and/or help the tanking market?
VA Investor,
ReplyDeleteI don't remeber insulting you or anyone else on the blog for that matter. Actually, I made my post just to create discussion. As a matter of policy I don't take advice on blogs (at least without confirming with other sources).
NOVA Fence Sitter
va_investor said...
ReplyDelete“Robert,
Obviously a pause helps the market. Whether it tanks or not is another issue. I've given my projections too many times to repeat. I've got my opinion. You've got yours.”
OK........ “Obviously a pause helps the market”, care to elaborate? Or is that the extent of the the “debate” you referred to earlier?
"Inventory is still growing"
ReplyDeleteNo it's not. It's been level for 5 months.
robert said...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
"Inventory is still growing"
-No it's not. It's been level for 5 months.-
OK anon, maybe for a two block radius. Check out:
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
For stats.
Anyone else notice more rentals coming on the market?
Inventory for the DC area, broadly defined, is the same now that it was in May and below its July peak:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/
It simply isn't true that inventory is on the rise. It bumped up substantially last spring, and then it stopped.
Actually, much of the runup in inventory took place over a year ago. Same link.
ReplyDelete"Anyone else notice more rentals coming on the market? "
ReplyDeleteRents appear to be at least 25-33% higher in my zip (20009) than they were a year ago.
Originaldcer,
ReplyDeleteThat was a very good post! I think you captured the essense of what is occuring on this post. And in my wildest dreams, I want to believe that the "first time buyers" who come here to JUSTIFIABLY complain, will come to understand that Va_Investor and I aren't criticizing the fact that they are complaining ... but rather trying to help them see the futulity of complaining ... especially to those of us who come here to help by way of our experience.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“And in my wildest dreams, I want to believe that the "first time buyers" who come here to JUSTIFIABLY complain, will come to understand that Va_Investor and I aren't criticizing the fact that they are complaining ... but rather trying to help them see the futulity of complaining ... especially to those of us who come here to help by way of our experience.”
And here folks, a tidbit of that experience:
Lance said...
whitetower said:
"So, you are saying that a person who has a mortgage should ignore the total amount paid for his house?"
now you're getting it! yes, yes, and yes. It is the present value and cashflow characteristics of the stream of payments that you will be making that counts.
July 25, 2006 11:09 PM
Who said anything about timing?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteYep, home values will fall 10% per year for 7 years.
I've got my eye on a $1,000,000 property in Potomac, MD. I'm going to scoop it up for $300K.
Uhm... Do you need to go back to remedial math? Here... let me help...
You're watching a $1,000,000 house in 2006. In 2007, its value drops 10%.
2007 Value = $900,000
In 2008, the value drops another 10%. 10% of $900,000 is $9,000, so the value of the house in 2008 is:
2008 Value = $810,000
2009 Value (after another 10% drop) = $729,000
2010 Value = $656,100
2011 Value = $590,490
2012 Value = $531,411
2013 Value = $478,296
Do you see where this is heading? I hope so, because I don't want to have to explain it again.
"2013 Value = $478,296"
ReplyDeleteThat's great! I'm going to get a mansion for practically zilch! woot!!!!
Anonymous "Everything I read here over the past year seemed to indicated that the collapse was coming soon. It keeps getting pushed further and further back. It is going to happen in 2008 now, right? Well, if you keep saying something will happen for long enough, you just might appear to be correct eventually."
ReplyDeleteIt is happening, read the papers, watch the news. A bubble bursting doesn't mean that prices will go down to half their value for an asset class; it didn't with the stock market, though for a lot of dot coms it did. A 10% reduction or a 20% reduction over two years (starting in the third quarter of 2005 according to most), is significant, because so many people have much of their wealth in their homes. Australia had a boom and bust several years ago (2003ish), but they were fortunate to recover from the 20% fall to moderate increases though not to the prior levels due to booming commodity (which Australia exports a lot) prices.
The feds actions are political.
ReplyDeleteElections are upon us.
In 1990 -1992 interest rates dropped. But, houses in L.A.
still dropped 50 %.
Now, prices are plunging in L.A., Orange County and Riverside
on the MLS boards. These listings will reflect as sales in about four months.
People are about to be shocked.
Riverside is off 10% since May,
O.C. is off 6% since May.
Inventories are astronomical.
Worst situation I have seen in
30 years as a broker.
The fed is illegal and needs to be abolished. Woodrow willson and other presidents agreed. JFK was assasinated over it after he attempted to reintroduce the U.S. Note to compete with the Fed Note. The Fed controls not only our interest rates but the interest that we, the american public, pay to the fed to circulate the dollar, and the control the flow of currency to have complete U.S. dictation of the U.S. dollar. If we have a problem with the dollar and interest rates it is no one's fault but those in control. the fed.
ReplyDelete