But did you notice a trend in the figures reported above? Not only is Lehreah's forecast typically optimistic, but while the report did say that sales were down or prices fell in this region or that, the only specific areas which were mentioned (Salt Lake, Pittsfield, Port Arthur) were where sales improved or prices were up. The report went so far as to fall back on reporting that typical sellers in metropolitan areas "experienced healthy gains on the value of their homes over the last five years in almost all 131 available areas, even in areas with recent price declines." Yeah, we know. It was called "the bubble."
If the market appears to be bad in your state, we are sorry we cannot tell you where you are vis-vis the overall statistics. If the situation in your area improved in terms of sales or price appreciation, NAR trumpeted that information but if your metro area or state is in trouble you will have to learn about it elsewhere. Perhaps we can tell you when the quarterly same house report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight is issued later this month.
NAR stands to lose credibility unless it also loses its Pollyanna approach to reporting the data for which it pretty much holds a monopoly. Realtors and by extension their customers and clients, rely on this information to price homes and set business strategy. It is time that NAR bites the bullet and get real about the full measure of statistics it collects. It is a public service to do so and even the most transparent of cover-ups eventually has drastic consequences.
The media should do more to attack on the half truths, fact manipulation and blatant cheerleading that the Natioanl Association of Realtors and other in the Real Estate Indsutrial Complex (REIC) regularly engage in. Enough is enough!
Posts
Does anyone else think that the 20th of February seems a bit late for the MRIS (mris.com) to release sales data for January in the DC area, despite the fact that it says on its website that data is typically released on the 10th of the month?
ReplyDeleteYep, Lereah is a shill. I honestly wonder if this guy has any conscience at all. Or if he feels any shame or embarrassment about being so wrong so often.
ReplyDeleteBut I have a question that isn't necessarily related to this particular post. On the NVAR website, they recently posted their January 2007 Market Reports (under Market Stats, Market Reports.) Historically, they've posted mean and median prices for different months. Admittedly, these data were pretty always crappy - they weren't really defined at all (are the price data in the Dec 06 report, for example, YTD thru Dec 06 vs. YTD thru Dec 05 prices?, or Dec 06 vs. Dec 05 prices?, or Dec 06 vs. YTD Dec 05 prices?, and so on.)
But in January 2007, they've changed their reporting format (without any explanation as far as I can tell.) They're now reporting "Close Price" and "Net Price". Do you (or anyone out there) know what these mean?
I get suspicious since they try to fudge the data all the time, but this may just be my ignorance. (What's really scary to me is the fact that these jokers are the primary source of the easily available price data.)
You can't believe the data anyway--The information has been skewed because they set up "new" listings for homes that are being reduced in price so we really don't know the truth about how long these homes have been on the market, or how much the price has been lowered from the original asking price.
ReplyDeleteLereah is one of those guys who may actually be making the bubble worse, as more people are duped by him daily. I believe a lot of folks are looking for appreciation 6 months down the road and it is not going to happen. They hold out hope because of lying Lereah.
ReplyDeleteRe:Sale Price versus Net Price
ReplyDeleteI believe the net price is the recorded sale price less any concessions made by the seller (such as buyer closing costs paid by seller or repair escrows, etc). It's been widely reported that buyers are now getting some concessions from sellers to close deals.
Gary Anderson said...
ReplyDelete"Lereah is one of those guys who may actually be making the bubble worse, as more people are duped by him daily. I believe a lot of folks are looking for appreciation 6 months down the road and it is not going to happen. They hold out hope because of lying Lereah."
Anyone who is looking for appreciation 6 months down the road is duping themselves. And why are we even talking about appreciation ... in the context of someone buying a home? When's the last time you heard someone talking about appreciation when buying a car? The problem isn't Lereah. The problem is home buyers who have confused buying a home with making an investment. Period.
Yeah, it's been tough for me David, too.
ReplyDeleteBought Home - Silver Spring, MD August 2001 - $260k
Sold Home 2 Weeks ago - 4 DAYS ON MARKET - $475K - Full Price Offer
Yeah, it's all gloom and doom around here. The sky is falling.
Hey David! Great work! I can't access the Southern Maryland Housing Bubble Blog. What seems to be the problem? They had outlined what to do to get a list of foreclosed properties in Maryland. Very informative. Thanks in advance, Bill
ReplyDeleteIn the plus column for the DC housing market - inventory growth pretty anemic so far this year. Inventory grew far more rapidly in beginning of 06.
ReplyDelete01/01/06 - 02/21/06 -> 1200
01/01/07 - 02/21/07 -> negative 123
Hey David! The website of Southern MD Housing Bubble Blog is not loading. What seems to be the problem? Do you know? They had a piece on how to locate foreclosed properties in MD. Does anyone of you guys know how to go about it? Your help will be greatlu appreciated. Thank you!
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's been tough for me David, too.
ReplyDeleteBought Home - Silver Spring, MD August 2001 - $260k
Sold Home 2 Weeks ago - 4 DAYS ON MARKET - $475K - Full Price Offer
Yeah, it's all gloom and doom around here. The sky is falling.
Um, that's the point. We're in a bubble. That's why the appreciation has been so high. That's why those who buy now are going to be in trouble.
I pulled the plug on the Southern Maryland Blog. The REIC is collapsing under its own weight now, so I felt like my work was done, and it's time to move on to other pursuits. Special thanks to David and everyone that supported the blog.
ReplyDeleteLance (6:37 AM), what happened? First time on my memory you sounded reasonably! I'm really puzzled...
ReplyDeleteDavid:
ReplyDeleteOkay, then go ahead and set a 'time' on your prediction? I have heard you make some strong comments about end of 2007 - We had our 'precipitous' fall from Jan-July of last year, and since then it has not been so 'bad' (down, no doubt, but not like Jan-July) - When will this bubble 'burst' as you say?
Just curious, since I am thinking of buying, but am concerned about getting absolutely crushed (I know it is a place to live, but I can't lose $150k even on paper - What if I lose my job and am forced to sell!)
Thanks..
anon 8:22 said:
ReplyDelete"Lance (6:37 AM), what happened? First time on my memory you sounded reasonably! I'm really puzzled..."
Jeez .. if this puzzles you, then it shows how little of what I've said that you've understood ...
"Okay, then go ahead and set a 'time' on your prediction?"
ReplyDeleteI already have.
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2005/12/washington-dc-metro-area-housing.html
David said...
ReplyDelete"Okay, then go ahead and set a 'time' on your prediction?"
I already have.
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2005/12/washington-dc-metro-area-housing.html
So what happens next? Over the next 3 years housing prices are likely to fall in the Washington area by 20 - 25% in real dollars ( inflation adjusted ). The Washington, DC metro area is thus a bubble market.
David, I just ran the numbers on your prediction (above). Assuming a 3.5% inflation rate each of the next 3 years, the net "fall" is 11.3% and 16.8% for 20 - 25% in real dollars. And that is for a period spanning 3 years ... i.e., 36 months ... I can't understand how this small adjustment fits into the bubble theory. Even I can buy into the fact that these numbers are very very possible ... And shouldn't influence someone's decision to buy now or wait ... since in the scheme of things this is just "noise" ... i.e., someone buying is better off concentrating on getting a good deal on a good place since over the long run those savings will add up to a lot lot more than 11.3% to 16.8% "real" savings.
"I can't understand how this small adjustment fits into the bubble theory."
ReplyDeleteThere is clearly quite a bit you don't understand lance. We could have told you that months ago...
"Even I can buy into the fact that these numbers are very very possible ... And shouldn't influence someone's decision to buy now or wait ... since in the scheme of things this is just "noise.""
LOL... yeah... you think a 10%+ yearly decline in a highly leveraged investment is "noise."
What if this person... I don't know... thinks they might need or to move one day and doesn't want to worry about being locked into a house for 5-10 years? What if they are concerned about getting the best possible value for their money?
Nevermind... you don't have any answers... we all know that already. The above post of yours is just another attempt to start back tracking on your failing predictions by trying to redefine the argument.
Lance said: "if this puzzles you, then it shows how little of what I've said that you've understood ... "
ReplyDeleteLOL. I don't have to. Do you understand yourself what you are posting? I rarely waste my time reading your posts... Cheers
Anon 8:37,
ReplyDeleteI also rarely read Lance's posts. If he used paragraphs or made any other attempt to organize and articulate his arguments I might reconsider. But he doesn't.
My $0.02.
"If he used paragraphs or made any other attempt to organize and articulate his arguments I might reconsider. But he doesn't."
ReplyDeleteIt would be even better if he even knew how to make an argument...
I seriously doubt the guy has a college degree, but that is just based on the overall low level of logical thought he shows.
Actually, Lance's "style", or lack thereof, reveals his mindset. Lance feverishly types away in his Charlie-Manson-with-an-MBA word salad with no thought or organization.
ReplyDeleteThat's because Lance is desperately trying to convince himself, to grab at the smallest shred of evidence that he can find for his wishes, while ignoring the mountains of evidence against his beliefs.
Remember the time Lance cited the Post article, and then it turned out that the article said the opposite of what Lance claimed?
Ever notice how lance grabs at one report covering the nation as a whole, but then ignores the MRIS data that shows significant price drops in many DC zip codes, even after Lance has claimed that all real estate is local?
No, Lance's lack of grammar and punctuation is part of Lance's true message. Lance's message is that he isn't hearing or seeing anything he doesn't want to, that he's built his own little evidence-proof bubble to desperately hold onto his illusion that he's some sort of real estate genius.
Either Lance is a truly horrid little man, or he is one hell of an art/social science project. Maybe some artistic genius has created a brilliant character, and uses it to post here, thus creating a new type of literature. If so, this person deserves one of those MacArthur grants.
The main problem I have about the home prices stabilizing and moving up gently from NAR is that there are huge incentives and back-door dealings going on to "prop up" slaes prices on paper. I live in Central Forida and we have over 5 times the inventory on MLS that we had 2 years ago this time. Florida did get ahead of itself, but to avoid larger "drops" in pricing, I have seen builders paying all costs AND 1-2 years of mortgage payments in the deal. This 10% of the sales price incentive is not deducted on paper results, but it would show a steeper price decline it were done correctly.
ReplyDelete