Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Housing Bear Growls and Gets Heard

DrudgeReport: April 24

Posted by David at 11:59 AM

25 comments:

  1. KevinApril 24, 2007 1:33 PM

    yeah i saw that too on the drudge. I think its great Matt put that in row 2 line 1.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 24, 2007 9:55 PM

    From CNBC.com:
    The housing decline will continue "fast and maybe even faster" than predictions, said David Blitzer, the managing director at Standard & Poor's and chairman of the S&P 500 Index Committee.

    Here's the entire article, with video:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/18289837/site/14081545

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousApril 24, 2007 11:41 PM

    Well, the drop is too small to make any difference in the big picture. There's no RE bubble in DC.

    ReplyDelete
  4. robertApril 25, 2007 1:06 AM

    Anonymous said...
    "Well, the drop is too small to make any difference in the big picture. There's no RE bubble in DC."

    Not in NoVA..
    Not in DC..
    Not in DC proper..
    Not in my zip code..
    Not on my street...
    Not on my block..
    Not on my house.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 7:30 AM

    close to the city has bought some more time, but Frederick, Hagerstown, Gaithersburg, Columbia, Annapolis, and most of NOVA is dropping - acceptance is serenity

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 9:36 AM

    Sellers are getting desperate in No Va See inventory piling up and sellers are shaking now.

    Take the prices down to sane levels and just maybe a buyer may appear. Frig off.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 11:42 AM

    Well, I have been waiting for prices to drop. Nothing has happened. Prices are way too high still. It will take a disaster for prices to drop (significantly not a measly 1% or 2%) around here. Any thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 12:16 PM

    "Well, I have been waiting for prices to drop. Nothing has happened. Prices are way too high still. It will take a disaster for prices to drop (significantly not a measly 1% or 2%) around here. Any thoughts. "

    Vote Republican and maybe you'll get the major terrorist attack you're hoping for.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 12:23 PM

    In real terms they have dropped. According to MRIS Fairfax area median price dropped ~3.5% YOY March 06 to March 07. If you believe the governments bogus inflation #s of ~3.5-4%, that's a real decline of ~7-8%. After 3 years of a decline of 4% and a real decline of 8% that 500k house is now only ~390k, or about a 22% decline over three years. Let's say house prices are flat for 5 years . . . that's still approx. a real decline of ~20% taking inflation into account.

    I agree houses are still way too high, but it's a real slow moving train wreck, it takes years to crash and clean up. The housing market is cyclical with about an 18 year cycle peak to peak. And inflation is a #@!$

    ReplyDelete
  10. KevinApril 25, 2007 2:28 PM

    Here's your price drop
    http://tinyurl.com/29lho3

    4.33% DOWN YOY

    -Kevin

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 2:31 PM

    "After 3 years of a decline of 4% and a real decline of 8% that 500k house is now only ~390k, or about a 22% decline over three years."

    You think prices have been declining for 3 years? You should read this blog to correct that misconception.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 4:54 PM

    anon 11:31
    No where did I state it had declined 4% a year for the past 3 years, I was demonstrating what could happen. Year 1 is already in the books . . . what happens in year 2 and 3 . . . who knows it was just a math exercise.

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousApril 25, 2007 5:20 PM

    your censorship is why you are not permitted to have a real blog with a functioning comments seciont. have fun with comment moderation. lololol!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousApril 26, 2007 11:11 AM

    "Vote Republican and maybe you'll get the major terrorist attack you're hoping for."

    Sadly, things are not that easy. I don't think the terrorists care which party is in office.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousApril 26, 2007 1:29 PM

    Here's the start of your DC metro area housing decline:

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/washington.html

    The way down will probably be longer and slower than the way up.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Caveat EmptorApril 26, 2007 6:15 PM

    From today's (4/25) WSJ:

    IndyMac Bancorp Inc., one of the largest U.S. providers of Alt-A loans, on Thursday posted a 34% drop in first-quarter profit as overdue loans rose and it earned less from selling its loans into the secondary market. The Pasadena, Calif., company earned $52.4 million, or 70 cents a share, compared with $79.8 million, or $1.18 a share, a year earlier. IndyMac shares, which have been down more than 30% this year, fell 79 cents or 2.6% to $30.18 in recent trading.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousApril 27, 2007 12:31 PM

    I bought in Arlington in 2004 for 460k. My wife and I are getting crushed by the mortgage payments. Considered selling until the realtor said she could only get us 400k IF she could even find a buyer.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Caveat EmptorApril 27, 2007 1:59 PM

    James,

    Here, here. That graph creates a very stark picture of just how out of whack the last 6 years have been. I have been saying all along that the ride down is going to take a long time, and the graph not only suggests it is just starting, but shows how far it has to go to get back down to historically high levels.

    Here is another tidbit.

    Economic growth slowest in four years
    Latest reading shows just 1.3% growth, far less than forecasts, hurt by weakness in housing, business spending.
    By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
    April 27 2007: 12:25 PM EDT

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Economic growth sank to the slowest pace in four years in the first quarter, the government reported Friday, as the weak housing market, coupled with higher prices, took a big bite out of the world's largest economy.

    While a slowdown had been expected, the reading came in far weaker than most economists' forecasts. Sluggish spending by businesses was another culprit.

    "We are seeing housing affecting consumers," said Michael Strauss, chief economic for Commonfund, an asset manager serving not-for-profit clients. "We're seeing a major drag on discretionary spending."

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousApril 27, 2007 3:36 PM

    It is too bad this blog has gone from a daily update kind of thing to a maybe twice a week format... with the top story being nothing but a report on what another blog is reporting for three days...

    Oh yeah, and any meaningful discussion is all but impossible in the comments section because I can mail a letter across the country quicker than the new comments are screened and appear.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousApril 27, 2007 4:07 PM

    "I bought in Arlington in 2004 for 460k. My wife and I are getting crushed by the mortgage payments. Considered selling until the realtor said she could only get us 400k IF she could even find a buyer. "


    Then you really got ripped off in 2004, because prices are generally still above 2004 levels.

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousApril 27, 2007 5:14 PM

    How do you like this moron -
    http://www.davidr.net/report.htm
    His reports are beating Lance in every aspect.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousApril 28, 2007 12:39 AM

    Housing takes a long time to shake out. People will stay put and wait for their price, forever in some cases. I got neighbors who have listed at 100K over their 06 purchase price, "I'm making my 100K on y flip or I'm not sellin'!!!" And guess what It ain't selling, so he's staying. At some point down the road, he'll sell at a reasonable price. When? Is anyone's guess. What you end up with, is sellers sitting on their I want this price and no buyers willing t opay it or who can qualify for that price as standards tighten.

    ReplyDelete
  23. beebsApril 29, 2007 3:05 PM

    I bought in Arlington in 2004 for 460k. My wife and I are getting crushed by the mortgage payments. Considered selling until the realtor said she could only get us 400k IF she could even find a buyer.

    Why did you buy if you couldn't make payments on one income?

    Inquiring minds and etc.

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousApril 29, 2007 8:35 PM

    Who is this David Rathgeber? I never heard of him and his report does not provide any data at all.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousMay 03, 2007 2:41 PM

    "Why did you buy if you couldn't make payments on one income?

    Inquiring minds and etc. "


    Yeah, um, why should women be allowed to work at all in fact. WTF are you talking about?

    ReplyDelete

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