The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area had already started declining in fall 2005. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $470K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -1.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -2.5%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -12%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 52%
- Active Listings YoY: -8.7%
- Median Price: $275k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 2.6%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -11%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 64%
- Active Listings YoY: 33%
- Median Price: $419k
- Median Sales Price YoY: -1.4%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 2.7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -0.9%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 38%
- Active Listings YoY: -1%
- Median Price: $325K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 0%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 0%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -36%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 108%
- Active Listings YoY: 87%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $450K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 3.4%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 4.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -22%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 69%
- Active Listings YoY: 17%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $432K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -8.1%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-6.4%
- Total Units Sold YoY: 0%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 58%
- Active Listings YoY: -23%
- Median Price: $485K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -7.6%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-0.1%
- Total Units Sold YoY: 17%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 52%
- Active Listings YoY: -16%
- Median Price: $310K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -2.9%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 8.9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: - 27%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 102%
- Active Listings YoY: 21%
- Median Price: $474K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -1.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-3.8%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -19%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 53%
- Active Listings YoY: -8%
These numbers clearly showing a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area. The housing market in the Washington, DC area is experiencing a significant decline. The above numbers are nominal dollars, looking at real dollars (inflation adjusted) the declines are even greater.
The Washington - Baltimore area is not having a spring bounce that will save the housing market from further declines in 2007. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality.
Posts
2005 buyers got PWN3D!
ReplyDeleteWell “Lance”, I take that back. MRIS zip code data is not password protected. Either I fat fingered it, or the MRIS website was having issues.
ReplyDelete(Oh yea, zip 20009 stats are down.........again)
Ave. Sales Price DC YoY: +2.7%
ReplyDelete---------------------------------
Ave. Sales Price Loudoun YoY: -6.4%
This makes me glad I am not a country boy.
nice analysis....don't forget, these numbers don't include "perks" like seller paid closing costs, 1/2 off upgrades, etc... It's all marketing.
ReplyDeleteHaHAH, nice collapse. Some up, some down. You need to exaggerate to make a point. You lose.
ReplyDeleteWhy the prices in DC and its immediate (and desirable) suburbs will continue to rise even in this down cycle:
ReplyDeletewww.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/04/AR2007050400086.html
One thing that is a bit misleading about both median and mean price data is that the mix is shifting. During the bubble, most of the investor speculation was in condos but now there is much less volume in that product type. As a result, SFH's are a higher percentage of sales in the past and can drag up the averages even if the market is down on a true (mix controlled) basis. That being said, you can pull attached/detached data from MRIS to control for this. The numbers I pulled for the DC zip codes I'm interested suggested the SFHs are indeed up a bit in DC but condo prices are plummeting in DC just as in the suburbs.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc0407.pdf
ReplyDeleteSorry, as someone else pointed out, median condo prices fell from 354k to 350k, inventory increased from 1200 - 1400, and sales fell from 450 - 400. Nice try, check your sources next time.
It's important to note that prices in northern Virginia normally rise as we head into spring. However, in April, prices fell both year over year and sequentially from March to April. This sequential decline is the first since the year 2000 and, I believe, is an important data point.
ReplyDeleteI think its safe to say that spring is a bust, because spring is like viagra for home prices - it makes them rise. If the viagra (spring) didn't make home prices rise in April, I think prices will remain limp for the rest of the year (and likely we'll experience some "shrinkage".)
In other words, this sequential decline heading into spring will only serve to make the remainder of the year that much worse.
Robert - the mris zip code data was password protected briefly but is now available again (you weren't crazy).
This data basically states we have returned to what is known a normal market. Prices have appreciated in areas but time on the market is up. What we experienced between 2000 and 2005 has only happened once before and that was after WWII.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to a normal market. Yes it may take some getting used to for some.
Ignore the Chicken Littles unless you see the economy slide.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Why the prices in DC and its immediate (and desirable) suburbs will continue to rise even in this down cycle:”
“Lance”, prices in DC are falling, therefore they can not “continue” to rise. They can “begin” to rise, but there is no indication of such.
So, in response to the actual figures about falling house prices in DC and in his zip code, Lance posts an article about high-end housing in Manhattan and Dubai.
ReplyDeleteLance has once again declared defeat.
Oh, and DCBubble, median prices in DC were down. So makes me glad I didn't buy in Loudon, and it also makes me glad I'm not a sucker who bought a DC condo.
"Developers Creating Housing For Those With Money to Burn"
ReplyDeletePeople with money to burn don't come to D.C. People who lust for power do (along with some who are serving the country honorably).
It's over "Lance." Show some courage and admit defeat.
Prince William county in Virginia just hit a 12 month supply of houses. Do you all think this includes the extra houses needed for a big spring bounce for spring 2008? LOL
ReplyDeleteI'm 30 years old and my firm just raised my base salary to $210k. Every firm in the city is in the process of similar pay hikes. I know, now you say there's not many lawyers in Washington DC.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, there aren't many lawyers in DC who don't know that subjects should agree with their verbs.
ReplyDeleteGood news - David seems to have opened the blog's posting to trolls who critique grammer rather than responding to substance! Woohoo!
ReplyDeleteIt really is fun watching "lance" and the various anonymous bitter owners come out of the woodwork when data like this is released. It is like they all think that they need to go into double damage control mode.
ReplyDeleteAs for lance's delusions that DC is Manhattan... well just hang around lance.
Just a couple days ago you were lying about prices shooting up in DC, now the data shows that they are in fact falling...
A few weeks ago you lied and said you had toured "average rowhouses" that had gone from 1 million to 2 million in the last 12 months...
A few weeks before that you claimed we would have bidding wars in May...
A few weeks before that you claimed that new lending practices had eliminated risk for lenders and that lenders ALWAYS used a worst case scenario when qualifying a prospective borrower for an adjustable mortgage...
Last year this time you were claiming that it is ALWAYS a good time to buy...
Of course every one of your self serving predictions have proven to be laughable in retrospect.
At this point the only question left for you to answer is the date you slink away from this blog to avoid having to admit that you were 100% wrong the whole time.
dcbubble, median is a more appropriate measure than average because averages can be distorted by a few very expensive properties.
ReplyDeleteMy firm just raised by base salary to $1 million, and I'm an itenerant laborer. Isn't the internet fun?
ReplyDeleteOK, what are the inflation adjusted numbers? You keep talking about nominal rates with caveats about inflation, but in an environment where inflation is no more than 3%, what's the real price decline?
ReplyDeleteWhat is the real rate of decline?
John Fontain said...
ReplyDelete“Robert - the mris zip code data was password protected briefly but is now available again (you weren't crazy).”
THANK YOU MISTER FONTAIN! I thought I was losing it.
$210K, not bad for 30-year old, congrats. It's twice of what I make as GS-13. How is your work load, do you have time to enjoy DC life?
ReplyDelete"$210K, not bad for 30-year old, congrats. It's twice of what I make as GS-13."
ReplyDeleteEffing-a. No GS-13 can be worth north of $100K when the median household income for the country is ~$45K.
Of course, any GS-13 is worth more than some DC lawyhore.
Does anyone know what the housing market is like in PG County?
ReplyDeleteI had followed it a little last year, then have been super busy for a few months and didn't track it. A few zip codes I sort of keep an eye on seemed to suddenly explode in inventory, but maybe I am doing something wrong.
Inventory is now down year over year:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/
Oh, and Keith, on law firm salary hikes:
http://www.lawfirmdiscussion.com/compensation/dc07salary.php
Work load is substantial, but not smothering. I have a life and balance my commercial work with plenty of interesting pro bono.
ReplyDeleteGuys, how is -1.4% that big of a deal after 4-5 years of double digit increases? I think this is the perfect soft landing. People that bought at the end of 2005 or early 2006 have lost a little bit of equity in their homes, but if they arent planning on selling then who cares? If they were looking to flip then they are idiots and then definitely who cares?
ReplyDeleteWhat about City of Alexandria statistics?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous 7:51 said...
ReplyDelete"Guys, how is -1.4% that big of a deal after 4-5 years of double digit increases? I think this is the perfect soft landing. People that bought at the end of 2005 or early 2006 have lost a little bit of equity in their homes, but if they aren’t planning on selling then who cares? If they were looking to flip then they are idiots and then definitely who cares?"
You're wasting your breath. The Bubbleheads who dominate this blog with their posts are wannabe flippers. They don't and can't understand the different financial considerations that apply to true homeowners looking for longterm financial benefits and lifestyle benefits. And no amount of explanation will help them understand that due to this mis-focusing and blurring of these different goals, they are their own worst enemies ...
I tried for a long time to help them ... but they are not willing to help themselves. Hence why I rarely post now ... And just content myself with laughing in private (mostly) as to how misguided they are. It's really sad though if you think about it.
lance, maybe you are laughing about your own comments. How about the one where you said 20009 zip code would not show YOY declines. Whoops. You were wrong.
ReplyDeleteWhere is the info on that 2 mil townhome?
Anon,
You are right, if someone bought to live and not move for the next 10-20 years, who cares what happens to their home value. The only thing that would suck for them is they could have bought a better place for the same price.
The big deal about a -1.5% decline is because of the loan statistics. I may be slightly off because I don't remember the exact numbers, but I am close. Something like 50% off all loans in 2005 were interest only. 30% of all home purchases from 2003 - 2005 were second home purchases, aka, investment properties. Meaning, these people are going to have to refinance or sell. Another thing is the first derivative of the price change. You said it, we went from double digit appreciation to negative appreciation in less then 2 years. Home prices generally are cyclical and move slow. This is a fast movement and its starting to dammage our economy severly. 1.3 and dropping GDP, banks going out of business, etc.
Lance calls people names, ie wannabe flippers, because he has no logic or facts and results to name calling. Its a common tactic when people are losing an argument. I feel for you Lance, you got caught up in the realestate hype and will probably get burned. I mean come on, who takes an interst only loan on a home when they are over 50? Not smart. You would have been better served saving your money and by land elsewhere and prepare for you retirement. But, I guess its what you value, I value my free time not a row house in the 20009 area.
Hopefully they will let you refi out of that IO when your payment triples.
the real bob
"The Bubbleheads who dominate this blog with their posts are wannabe flippers."
ReplyDeleteThat's the ticket, "Lance" - when reality doesn't agree with you, just make shit up.
I challenge you to find a regular poster who has said something along the lines of "if prices would just come down I could start my career as a flipper." I guarantee you won't be able to.
Once again you prove yourself to be a liar. How do you face yourself in a morning?
"They don't and can't understand the different financial considerations that apply to true homeowners looking for longterm financial benefits and lifestyle benefits."
ReplyDeleteLoL... says the guy who has been wrong about every single prediction he has made on this blog.
What makes this even more amusing is that you are a computer technician who spends his day running around swapping out keyboards and whatnot for a living. It does a lot to explain your presence on this blog actually... where else can you pretend to matter?
I tried for a long time to help them ... but they are not willing to help themselves. Hence why I rarely post now ... And just content myself with laughing in private (mostly) as to how misguided they are. It's really sad though if you think about it.
ReplyDeleteYea... I'm saving $2,859/month renting versus buying. Its really hurting my ego. ;) That's after taxes and everything.
The declines haven't even started. Alt-A has just been hit. I've always said it wouldn't be until June that "Joe Sixpack" knows prices are declining.
Got popcorn?
Neil
We really should start a poll on when Lance will finally choose to disappear.
ReplyDeleteAt this point he doesn't have a prayer of being proven correct in anything he has predicted. He claimed there would be no price declines, no declines in DC, and no declines in his precious zip code. He was wrong about all of them.
He claimed that it is never a bad time to buy... one calender year before home prices began to collapse.
He claimed there were going to be bidding wars in MAY 2007 this winter.
If he weren't such an intolerable ass I would feel sorry for the guy. He is obviously on this blog because he is scared to death that his precious house he bought with an exotic mortgage will prove to be a millstone around his neck. I think lance is really honestly only just now realising just how wrong he has been the whole time.
In short, I think he believed his own BS and is now running scared, but is still unwilling to admit it of course.
Funny how we don't see him try to lecture us anymore isn't it? Where are his wonderful thoughts on homebuyers being better people with superior abilities?
I just wish Lance would hang around for another 18 months. He won't, but if he did it would be really sweet to watch him try to explain exactly where he made his errors in judgement.
Anon 4:39's last post just proves that the bubbleheads posting here really don't have a clue when it comes to homeownership and financial stability. It's obvious to anyone willing to admit the truth that there isn't a bubble out there and that there won't be one bursting now .. or ever for that matter. This is a normal "soft landing" as everyone (except the bubbleheads) envisioned ... People (like anon 4:39) who believe otherwise are fooling themselves and just looking for justification for their failure (or inability?) to have bought anything to date.
ReplyDelete"This is a normal "soft landing" as everyone (except the bubbleheads) envisioned"
ReplyDeleteRight, except that the last time house prices went down nationwide was during the Great Depression. Was the GD normal? I think not.
This just in from the NAR (via economicdespair.blogspot.com):
"• During the first three months of this year, the nationwide median price for houses and condominiums slid 1.8 percent to $212,300.
• Prices are at a two year low.
• Over half the cities in the US experienced declines.
• Sales are down 6.6 percent compared to last year."
People like "Lance" who believe otherwise are fooling themselves and just looking for justification for their failure (inability?) to see the bubble that everyone else on this board saw and cash out at the right time.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Anon 4:39's last post just proves that the bubbleheads posting here really don't have a clue when it comes to homeownership and financial stability. It's obvious to anyone willing to admit the truth that there isn't a bubble out there and that there won't be one bursting now ..”
The truth? “Lance”, we’re still waiting for examples of “average row houses” seeing 100% increases in the last 12 months.
If you ever thought about posting numbers “Lance”, now would be a good time
By the way:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/news/
0705/gallery.bubbles/5.html
Real estate
Thanks to the good offices of Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, the U.S. economy cycled almost directly from the dot-com bubble into a real estate and housing credit bubble. As housing prices soared and McMansions bloomed in new subdivisions, the mortgage industry developed funky new products (interest-only and 40-year mortgages) and millions of Americans began to view houses as flippable assets. In 2005, 28 percent of homes bought in 2005 were purchased as investments.
"Inventory is now down year over year:"
ReplyDeleteYou didn't mention median price YOY. Was that just an oversight?
"It's obvious to anyone willing to admit the truth that there isn't a bubble out there and that there won't be one bursting now .. or ever for that matter."
ReplyDeleteI am the Anon you were responding to, and let me just say that I really honestly pity you.
What on earth can be driving you to hang out on this blog getting bodyslammed continually?
In the end you will just end up doing what VA_Investor did, tuck your tail between your legs and disappear.
The longer you stomp your little foot and insist that the sky is not blue the sillier you look.
I am in my mid-20s, already making north of 100k per year, and have a down payment saved to make a purchase right now if I chose to do so.
That is what you don't seem to get... you honestly seem to think that you have something I can't.
The truth is that you had to use an interest only loan and put renters in your basement just to make ends meet on a house that is losing value.
My investments are doing very very well right now.(checked the stock market lately?) I dont' envy you at the slightest... you are the sucker who bought at the top of the bubble. If my goal was to blow a bunch of cash on something that was going to lose value I would have bought a Porsche on payments.
The people I envy are those who bought BEFORE the bubble, not the idiots who bought at the top. Of course... I was in high school less than ten years ago and didn't even move into this area until 2004... so its not like I have to second guess myself here.
""Inventory is now down year over year:"
ReplyDeleteYou didn't mention median price YOY. Was that just an oversight?"
When inventory went up, you insisted it was a precursor to price declines. Now inventory is down. I'm sure you'll make up an excuse why it's not a good sign, but I'm also sure it won't be too persuasive.
Anon 5:14 said:
ReplyDelete"The people I envy are those who bought BEFORE the bubble, not the idiots who bought at the top."
What you fail to understand is that I did buy before the so-called bubble ... and thereby benefitted from very large equity appreciation in a condo. And I sold that condo when condo prices were at their temporary peak and re-invested that equity into a single family residence that since then has risen in value at least 20% (including the recent reduction of some 1.2%). With the english basement rental (and lack of condo payments), I now have far lower monthly housing costs, a property that has appreciated far more than the one I was in, and the comforts of a house including front and back yards and a garage. Sorry, but I think I did pretty well. And the reason I did pretty well is that I looked at my circumstances and needs and evaluated them against the possibilities out there. I didn't just count on house prices plummetting as the Bubbleheads are doing. And if you'd been following this blog at all, you'd know I never said everyone MUST buy. What I've said is simply that you shouldn't let the so called bubble deter you from buying. Nor should you hang all your hopes on prices falling drastically. Past experience has shown that once prices rise, they don't fall by any substantial amount. As I said, in my case, I am far ahead now of where I would have been if I'd just been sitting around on my duff "waiting" ... as the bubblehead creed advocates.
But of course, that is not what the Bubbleheads want to hear. They want to hear that everything will just fall in their laps and they'll not have to work at it at to make it happen. They want to hear that the realtors and the NAR and everyone else out there exist only to serve their needs ... and do the work and research that they really need to be doing for themselves. They want to believe in fairy tales, and anyone who botthers to point out reality to them must be against them. Good luck anon.
"Guys, how is -1.4% that big of a deal after 4-5 years of double digit increases? I think this is the perfect soft landing. People that bought at the end of 2005 or early 2006 have lost a little bit of equity in their homes, but if they arent planning on selling then who cares? If they were looking to flip then they are idiots and then definitely who cares?"
ReplyDeleteI totally agree this. Also, the price drops in the last 18 months are significantly depending on the zip codes. Loudoun County was hit the hardest due to builders' over-buildings and the price there dropped 20+%. However, the prices in Mclean, Great Falls and Vienna have not changed much at all. Why? LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Also there were very fewer investors in these areas and SO MANY investors in Loudoun County 1-2 years ago.
It seems the market hit the bottom last summer and the prices in DC metro remain flat since last fall. Stop dreaming the market crash and another 30+% price drop. My prediction is the price will remain flat for a few years.
"When inventory went up, you insisted it was a precursor to price declines. Now inventory is down. I'm sure you'll make up an excuse why it's not a good sign, but I'm also sure it won't be too persuasive."
ReplyDeleteWell, inventory was about the same last year as it is now, and it forced price declines, so it looks like inventory is still high enough to force some more declines, especially with the reduction in demand from tighter financing.
Maybe you won't find that persuasive, but that's likely a reflection of your faith-based approach to real estate.
"My prediction is the price will remain flat for a few years."
ReplyDeleteSo you're predicting a decline in real dollars. Okay, bubbles.
"What you fail to understand is that I did buy before the so-called bubble ... and thereby benefitted from very large equity appreciation in a condo."
ReplyDeleteOh I knew you bought before 05, but you then failed to capitalize on your dumb luck and put more money on the table at a time when you should have been going the opposite direction if anything.
"And I sold that condo when condo prices were at their temporary peak and re-invested that equity into a single family residence that since then has risen in value at least 20% "
This from the guy who insists that houses aren't "investments." You are happy enough rolling out your supposed(and lets be honest, your credibility is nil) gains when it suits you, but if anyone decides to hold on to their money in a declining market you accuse them of seeing a house as an "investment."
"And the reason I did pretty well is that I looked at my circumstances and needs and evaluated them against the possibilities out there. I didn't just count on house prices plummetting as the Bubbleheads are doing."
And what do you think I am doing?
I have news for you, prices ARE dropping, and they aren't about to stop in the next few months. That is what you don't seem to understand. We are very early into this correction. Your prior predictions about bidding wars in May, etc etc prove that you really don't have any idea what a strong downturn in a RE market looks like. Open a newspaper... virtually every expert agrees now that the recovery will be no sooner than 2008 in a best case scenario and if it comes it will be gradual. There is simply no reason for me to rush out and buy a declining asset right now. For the time being I will simply continue to watch my investments grow while the housing market sinks.
"What I've said is simply that you shouldn't let the so called bubble deter you from buying."
And that is a really stupid thing to say if you don't mind me putting it bluntly. The "so called" bubble is not yet done. Its effects are only now reaching into DC proper. I expect real price declines of ~20% in the suburbs with smaller but significant declines in the district by the end of this year.
"Nor should you hang all your hopes on prices falling drastically."
I am "hanging my hopes" on the fact that I am aggressively saving money and investing it wisely. It beats the heck out of using an exotic loan to leverage myself into a house that will be worth less than I paid for it in 12 months.
"Past experience has shown that once prices rise, they don't fall by any substantial amount."
You forgot the word "usually." Past performance does not guarantee future results lance. This bubble is worse than existed in the 70s 80s or 90s. The downturn will also be worse.
"As I said, in my case, I am far ahead now of where I would have been if I'd just been sitting around on my duff "waiting" ... as the bubblehead creed advocates."
Don't bother with the strawman arguments. Even if there were such a thing as "the bubblhead creed" and even if it advocated "sitting around" I am my own man and will do what suits me. The fact of the matter is that you are intentionally misstating the outlook of the vast majority of the posters here who advocate no such thing.
"But of course, that is not what the Bubbleheads want to hear. They want to hear that everything will just fall in their laps and they'll not have to work at it at to make it happen."
This is more strawman BS... what about what I have explained to you is unclear? I am making good money and saving a great deal of it. When I buy it will be with dollars I earned through my own hard work. It is BECAUSE those dollars are a product of my own productivity that I am unwilling to squander them by rushing into a huge financial decision when a more prudent person would wait.
"They want to hear that the realtors and the NAR and everyone else out there exist only to serve their needs ... and do the work and research that they really need to be doing for themselves."
The NAR is nothing but self serving... but then what business isn't? The same goes for realtors however... if I hire one... I do absolutely expect them to serve my needs by doing research and leg work on my behalf. Otherwise, what the hell am I paying them for? It certainly isn't for their opinion of financial or economic matters that are likely well above their understanding.
"They want to believe in fairy tales, and anyone who botthers to point out reality to them must be against them. Good luck anon."
It is sad how quickly the conventional wisdom of saving as a path to wealth has been corrupted into a worldview where anyone who does not throw caution into the wind and buy out of fear is a believer in "fairy tales."
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“And if you'd been following this blog at all, you'd know I never said everyone MUST buy. What I've said is simply that you shouldn't let the so called bubble deter you from buying.”
Lance said...
"that is correct, there is never a bad time to buy”
July 28, 2006 3:14 PM
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Nor should you hang all your hopes on prices falling drastically. Past experience has shown that once prices rise, they don't fall by any substantial amount.”
http://www.bubblepic.com/displayimage.php?pid=106&fullsize=1
""My prediction is the price will remain flat for a few years."
ReplyDeleteSo you're predicting a decline in real dollars. Okay, bubbles."
Inflation doesn't apply to this calculation - most people who sell a home reinvest in real estate. Better luck next lifetime.
"Maybe you won't find that persuasive, but that's likely a reflection of your faith-based approach to real estate. "
ReplyDeleteYou're the one flouting the evidence. I don't have an approach to real estate. Just an approach to internet trolls like you.
Keith said...
ReplyDelete"My prediction is the price will remain flat for a few years."
So you're predicting a decline in real dollars. Okay, bubbles.
If you live in the house, there will be no real dollars decline due to the inflation. You have to pay for living either own or rent a house. You get tax benefit when you own vs rent. There is no bubble now I believe. Most of damage has been done.
Prices will continue to fall because that is the way America works. Current housing prices hinder the American way of life (SUV's, TV’s, Blue Ray, etc.) Consumer spending is 70% of the GDP. Current housing prices will prevent our materialistic way of life; the government will not stand for it. The home credit card is done so now we need to lower prices again and produce a couple TV shows how some people got screwed and start over. Why do you think the boom happen in the first place, think about it. Do you REALLY think the fed had no idea what was happening with all those exotic mortgages, close one eye and watch the economy recover. For all the people that got screwed in 05 and 06, well causalities of the system. I feel sorry for the next President regardless who it is.
ReplyDelete"You're the one flouting the evidence."
ReplyDeleteLet's see, median price down YOY, and inventories pretty much the same as last year. And we already know inventories of this size caused prices to fall...
Yep, you've got this sewn up, Chucky.
"If you live in the house, there will be no real dollars decline due to the inflation."
Um, the opportunity cost of zero appreciation in your down payment?
"You have to pay for living either own or rent a house."
Yep, and renting's much, much cheaper, even by historical standards.
"You get tax benefit when you own vs rent. "
Even accounting for tax benefit, owning's a bad deal at these prices (for the most part).
"There is no bubble now I believe. Most of damage has been done."
Tap your shoes together and repeat that three times.
Keith is really hoping hard for bad things to happen to people. Sad.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Keith is really hoping hard for bad things to happen to people. Sad."
Keith is really hoping hard for bad things to happen to people ... because that is the only way he sees good things happening to him. I.e., He can't understand that he has it within his power to make good things happen for himself. He thinks it's a zero-sum game and that he'll only do well ... if others do badly. Doubly sad. Flipper mentality ...
Keith, wake up! The market is not going to drop another 20%-60%.
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is the only way you can afford to buy a house.
The sad part is lance and anony-Investor thinking that reality-based thinking is tantamount to evil. Perhgaps they'll tell us that invading Iraq was a good idea next.
ReplyDeleteGppd things happen to me because I'm smart, use my brain, put my money where it makes money, and I do the work and analysis to make the right decisions.
ReplyDeleteAnd the right decision in 2005 was obivously not to buy, and I am reaping the benefits of my wisdom and independence of mind. Lance could learn from me if he had the maturity.
Lance, you are back!
ReplyDeleteNice to see we aren't going to run low on strawman arguments a sniping from the sidelines.
It is just too bad you have given up on trying to argue with numbers. That was always a hoot.
the same info in charts:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.recharts.com/AroundDC.htm
its all about correct pricing... if a seller is overly aggressive property won't move.
ReplyDeleteif its in a hot neighborhood and priced correctly it could go above the ask
http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2007/05/new-mantra-for-slowing-market.html