Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Case Shiller Index Way Down; Washington, DC Area Down 7.8% YoY
Home values in major U.S. cities continued to fall at a record pace in November, with Southern California posting some of the steepest declines in a national index released Tuesday.
Miami saw a 15.1% drop in November compared to a year earlier, the worst among 20 metropolitan areas in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller composite index. But an Diego was close behind with a 13.4% decline.
The November index of 10 metropolitan areas saw a year-over-year annual decline of 8.4%, the sharpest annual plunge since the index began in 1987. It was the second-straight record decline for the index, following a 6.7% drop in October
In the Washington, DC area the price index fell 7.8% compared with November 2006 . Prices continue to fall in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. In real dollars prices have fallen about 10% this past year.
For more numbers go to Case Shiller S&P Index. The prices declines in the metro area are accelerating with the Case Shiller S&P Index showing October 2007 prices declines 1.1%. For comparison purposes in November 2007 prices fell 1.8% (in that month alone). This housing bust is accelerating; expect further prices declines during the coming months in the Washington, DC area.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
BubbleSphere Roundup
NAR commends Ben 'let's cut rates fast' Benranke. Message to NAR: Housing prices will continue to fall despite Bernanke's cutting.
HousingPanic (HP) is planning a Housing Panic convention in Las Vegas. Will there be a debate between a Realtor who has just called the bottom and Keith the loud leader of HP?
Foreclosures up 353% in S.D. County in 2007 (San Diego Union-Tribune)
According to VirginiaMLS the number of available listings as of January 17 in Northern Virginia is 16,853 which is up 31% from one year ago. Meanwhile sales are way down from last year. Increase in supply, lower demand.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Friday, January 18, 2008
Lawrence Yun Spouts More Nonsense in Denver
“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”The subprime mortgage crises is NOT a thing of the past. It is still very much a part of the housing market as over 250 billions dollars of subprime mortgages reset in the next couple of years (see chart below). Yun is a subprime economist and has lost his credibility.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Your Turn: How Much Have Prices Fallen in the DC Area?
How Much Have Prices Fallen from Peak Price? (in nominal $s)
1) For the average single family detached housing unit in the outer suburbs (ex. Woodbridge, Manassas, Sterling, Frederick, Waldorf) ?2) Condos in yuppie neighborhoods in DC (ex. Dupont Circle, Woodley Park, Capitol Hill) ?
3) Row houses in yuppie neighborhoods in DC (ex. Dupont Circle, Woodley Park, Capitol Hill, Lance's housing unit) ?
4) For the average single family detached housing unit in the inner suburbs (ex. Silver Spring, Bethesda, Arlington, Alexandria) ?
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
BubbleSphere Roundup
Keith the super housing bubble blogger continues to pound at those responsible for this mess Federal Reserve, NAR, Speculators, etc.).
Phoenix Housing Market: 2007 Sales Were Below 2000 Level (Housing Doom)
They are all Double Digit Declines Now (TheMessThatGreenspanMade)
'Piece of Cake' Housing Downturn Exceeds 90s 'Depression' (SacramentoLanding)
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
Part of Sculpture at Realtors' Washington, DC Office
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Washington - Baltimore , RE Sales Numbers. December 2007
The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $438K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.4%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 13%
- Active Listings YoY: 22%
- Median Price: $260k
- Median Sales Price YoY: -1.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 37%
- Active Listings YoY: 23%
- Median Price: $400k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 3%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 8.8%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -21%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 16%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
- Median Price: $303K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -8.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -3.1%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -56%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 79%
- Active Listings YoY: 72%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $426K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -2.3%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 1.2%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -40%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 36%
- Active Listings YoY: 32%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $410K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -6.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -8.0%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 3%
- Active Listings YoY: 11%
- Median Price: $486K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -2.9&
- Average Sales Price YoY: 4.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 2%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
- Median Price: $283K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -6%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -5.7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: - 26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 54%
- Active Listings YoY: 22%
- Median Price: $430K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -4.5%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -.4%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -31%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 15%
- Active Listings YoY: 28%
These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in December compared to December 2006 by at least 20% . In most places the median sales price fell.
The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Prices continue to fall. Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality. For real estate, this spring's real estate season will not be a recovery time in the DC - Baltimore area. Housing busts usually last many, many years. It is far from over.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun
“‘The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,’ Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. ‘A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.’” (AP News)
Really? You have lost your credibility. Don't listen to this paid spinner as he has been wrong many times before. He is paid to spin optimistic mesages on behalf of the real estate industial complex (REIC).
Thursday, January 03, 2008
2009 Predictions
Let me get started.
1) Housing markets continues to decline in most major metropolitan areas in the United States.
2) The recession continues at least through the end of the second quarter.
3) US Budget Deficit for 2009 is over 1.3 trillion dollars.