Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Happy Birthday

The Bubble Meter blog turned four years old yesterday. It was created by David Jackson several months before the bubble peak.
Posted by at 3:46 PM
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10 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 26, 2009 5:06 PM

    Happy Birthday indeed. Props to David for being one of the first brave souls to call bubble and bursting - and to James for invogorating this blog once it looked all but dead.

    Unfortunately for David, he was looking at homes "in DC", one of the few places that didnt have much of a bubble. Look at what prices of homes in DC have done in that time.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/graphics/2009/homeprices/district-of-columbia-sfh.html

    This is an example of what we call a place that is "immune". Such a fun word - lets say it again, immune immune immune! 4 years later and prices of SFH in DC Proper keep going up.

    I look back at the old posts of guys like Caveat Emptor, Leroy, Redskins fan, Terminator X, John Fountain, I hate yuppies, Neil, etc. and just laugh. They all called for a catastrophe to hit DC - just like it did in Loudoun & PWC (all part of the mantra "No place is DIFFERENT) Wow, how wrong they were.

    I wonder what happened to these guys. Just like Lance who was humiliated and ran away - these guys arent here much anymore. Its embarassing to be so wrong.

    I do hope they lurk from time to time. In fact I hope they see this entry and know we are all sitting here laughing at you, mocking your doomish calls which as history rolls on, and the bubble winds down, look to be the worst calls ever.

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  2. SondisMay 26, 2009 5:20 PM

    Anon...I wouldnt count on DC prices staying up this year. There is simply too much inventory left. I would bet you dollars to donuts SFH prices in DC are down this year. Maybe not the -15% I thought previously, but -12% is very possible.

    Still your larger point is very true. The height of the bubble brought out fools (remember NOZ) who bought into the "no place is different" mantra and assumed all areas would experience big price hits. As its going now, the fools will be lucky if DC SFH prices drop back to 2007 levels.

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  3. EconomicDisconnectMay 26, 2009 6:36 PM

    Happy Blog birthday and congratulations.

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  4. AnonymousMay 27, 2009 12:43 AM

    Keep up the good work! It's just easier to post in anon. But I support your non-anon policy.

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  5. Supernintendo ChalmersMay 27, 2009 9:50 AM

    4 years? wow. and it feels just like yesterday that Ben Jones dropped you guys from his blog roll after your "blogger fatigue" post.

    so did David ever buy?

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  6. AnonymousMay 27, 2009 2:29 PM

    "SC said...so did David ever buy?"

    To our knowledge, no. As noted above, David was looking in one of the few places in the USA (DC proper) that experienced a dramatic change in fundamentals. It was a once in a lifetime change, and it happened on his watch.

    I feel sorry for the guy. Many people looking to buy in DC, Arlington & Alexandria truly were "priced out forever". Hopefully, he isnt one of them.

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  7. UnknownMay 27, 2009 9:21 PM

    Happy Birthday Bubble meter! I visit nearly every day. Now blow out them candles!

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  8. DavidMay 28, 2009 12:56 PM

    Thanks. :-) A big thanks to James for doing an excellent job in continuing the blog.

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  9. AnonymousMay 28, 2009 9:04 PM

    Happy B-day!!!

    I hope this blog stays up for at least another 4 years while the DC area continues to sink!

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  10. Costa Rica Real EstateAugust 03, 2009 12:55 PM

    late congrats bubble metter! this is indeed a blog I have bookmarked, I am reading most of your old posts and they are of true quality

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