tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114743802401764104..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: The Declining DollarDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger103125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147497247199311802006-05-13T01:14:00.000-04:002006-05-13T01:14:00.000-04:00>I'd be astonished to learn that you aren't a euni...>I'd be astonished to learn that you aren't a eunich. <BR/><BR/>Sorry, my friend. I am not going to enagage with you on that here. I dont feel that its any of your business. You can talk all you want about that .. please do to your heart's content. (Although david may not like it.)<BR/><BR/>If you feel like a winner if you conclude that I'm an eunuch ... go ahead, be my guest. ;<BR/><BR/>You see, none of your words can hurt me, neither can my words hurt you. <BR/><BR/>Whatever you did to yourself is what will hurt you.<BR/><BR/>Winners are people who learnt from their past losses.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps, your irritation is because your math does not work out? Dissing me is not going to change the principles of arithmetic, you know.<BR/><BR/>Good luck. :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147489116280834442006-05-12T22:58:00.000-04:002006-05-12T22:58:00.000-04:00"I cant afford to comfortably buy a home anywhere ..."I cant afford to comfortably buy a home anywhere within 40 miles of dc."<BR/><BR/>pwn3dAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147488926675001902006-05-12T22:55:00.000-04:002006-05-12T22:55:00.000-04:00"Ok, now I want to know this - just how many lawye..."<BR/>Ok, now I want to know this - just how many lawyers are there in DC, making that money, and what is their percentage population wise? I just can't imagine that they have much of anything to do with home prices, especially if you assume that the younger lawyers spend a minimum of a year or two paying off their debt (most much longer),which even at a big firm does not leave much extra cash for purchasing a home."<BR/><BR/>My loan payments are $1400/month. I take home $3300 every two weeks (not counting 401k contributions). I am typical.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147472623280207142006-05-12T18:23:00.000-04:002006-05-12T18:23:00.000-04:00Epictetus, I'm not going to read all that!Epictetus, I'm not going to read all that!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147471556750651032006-05-12T18:05:00.000-04:002006-05-12T18:05:00.000-04:00Oh boy here we go. The housing bubble is the faul...Oh boy here we go. The housing bubble is the fault of the Fed, and the Rothschilds....bubblemeter.blogspot.com, meet Mr. Shark.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147470306930212802006-05-12T17:45:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:45:00.000-04:00>If you actually believed in your arguments, why w...>If you actually believed in your arguments, why would it be an emotional issue? Instead, you should be thankful that you rent, and await the correction with the certainty of the true believe. That you get so worked up over it makes it appear as if, instead, you are worried that the train has left the station without you on it, at best, or are a deranged lunatic, at worst.<BR/><BR/>Thats right. Most of the myths about owing are just that - myths.<BR/><BR/>Rent a place for your needs. Renting is not throwing away money. Not at current house prices. Let the landlord pay your housing costs. After all if houses are really worth these prices, and rents are not in line with owning costs, making the landlord pay the difference is a good deal.<BR/><BR/>Really, in this market the landlord is paying you. That's what my landlord is doing for me. I'm happy :-). I'll renew the lease for yet another year - maybe I'll let home tack 3% this year, last year I only agreed for 2%. Its a competitive market.<BR/><BR/>And I can buy cash down - but I dont see why.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147469434607702682006-05-12T17:30:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:30:00.000-04:00epictetus is so wrong for so many reasons, I could...epictetus is so wrong for so many reasons, I could never get to all of them. I will point out that the U.S. is not on the gold standard, so foreigners can't go to the U.S. Treasury and say "give me gold in exchange for my dollars." Besides, even if we were on the gold standard, they'd be going to the wrong building. Our currency is printed by the Federal Reserve Bank, not the Treasury Department.<BR/><BR/>Regarding the real estate market, everybody knows that to invest wisely you need to "buy low and sell high". So I ask everyone, are housing prices today low or high?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147468964622397062006-05-12T17:22:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:22:00.000-04:00ihateyuppies said"[t]he fact that I cannot afford ...ihateyuppies said<BR/><BR/>"[t]he fact that I cannot afford a decent place to live in the Washington, DC metro area, is an emotional issue. I am tired of housing heads denying that there is a fundamental problem with the real estate market."<BR/><BR/>Methinks the poster doth protest too much. If you actually believed in your arguments, why would it be an emotional issue? Instead, you should be thankful that you rent, and await the correction with the certainty of the true believe. That you get so worked up over it makes it appear as if, instead, you are worried that the train has left the station without you on it, at best, or are a deranged lunatic, at worst.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147468718309465892006-05-12T17:18:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:18:00.000-04:00The bubblehead agenda above is absolutely PRICELES...The bubblehead agenda above is absolutely PRICELESS!! <BR/><BR/>It really does sum up a lot of the childish commentating on this site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147468549429793952006-05-12T17:15:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:15:00.000-04:00"Daivd, I love your blog and agree with the bubble..."Daivd, I love your blog and agree with the bubble, but you do yourself no service by having most of the action take place on the comment threads like this."<BR/><BR/><BR/>Thanks for the compliments. The amount of comments have exploded on this blog. <BR/>Still trying to figure out what to do regarding comments.<BR/><BR/><BR/>"I have sent a couple of people here to check it out and their uniform reaction has been, intersting posts but the commentors are verging on sociopathy."<BR/><BR/>A few of the commentators are 'verging on sociopathy." AgreesDavidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147468327362025842006-05-12T17:12:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:12:00.000-04:00Anon 1:37 p.m. Last time I checked, we have freed...Anon 1:37 p.m. <BR/><BR/>Last time I checked, we have freedom of expression in this country. The commentators will go off on tangents. Some commentators have zany ideas about real estate or the economy in general. So what? If you want hard-core analysis of real estate economics, go read an academic journal. <BR/><BR/>Furthermore, the fact that I cannot afford a decent place to live in the Washington, DC metro area, is an emotional issue. I am tired of housing heads denying that there is a fundamental problem with the real estate market.ihateyuppieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14656529543240441687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147468205884941082006-05-12T17:10:00.000-04:002006-05-12T17:10:00.000-04:00>"There is a distinct difference between some on w...>"There is a distinct difference between some on who is buying a home to make money or someone who is buying a home to live in"<BR/>><BR/>>I find this distinction to be an artificial construct, created by by bubbleheads, and utilized to further their agenda.<BR/>><BR/><BR/>There is a distinction. You are wrong.<BR/><BR/>Housing is a consumption good. And in fact, housing returns, in real terms have been pretty low for all history, except for manias.<BR/><BR/>People who do not buy now are not making an investment decision - they just think that the service the house provides - housing - is not worth the price. <BR/><BR/>Cost of housing = carrying costs/yr - amortized(sale price - purchase price)yr <BR/><BR/>See the last part i.e. (sale price - purchase price)/yr. The amortized increase or decrease in housing cost?<BR/><BR/>You think that's an investment factor.<BR/><BR/>But in reality it is a cost factor for those who look at housing as an expense - that is those who need to live in their house.<BR/><BR/>There are those who dont want to live in their house (and also for some who live in their house), or who think they'll make money off the house. They just think that the cost of housing will be negative, that they'll get money living in a house or buying and keeping/renting the house<BR/><BR/>To do that, you'll have to have <BR/>--negative carrying costs ie. rent > expenses<BR/>--profit on sale (until you sell, there's none of it)<BR/><BR/>The first is way most landlords make most of the money. And since carrying costs are based on interest ( a % on purchase price) and rent, buying at the right price and market value of rent is key. <BR/><BR/>The second is hard, in real terms, and is mostly driven by purchasing low. Temporary aberrations can cause the second to generate money too. But mostly that just means that someone else got screwed. And these aberrations will extract their cost. You might have a lot of "money" for a short time, but the economic hemorrage will bite you. Money does not have meaning outside of the claims on production it can make.<BR/><BR/>Houses dont generate wealth. Its that simple. Otherwise all we have to do is buy a house, live in it, and sell it every 2 years. Or to make more money, buy more houses. [In fact we as a country are going to realize this idiocy soon - instead of investing in R&D or production, which generate wealth down the line, we have invested in houses]<BR/><BR/>What asset manias do is tranfer wealth between people. (ala Ponzi)<BR/><BR/>And the people who got in and got out first take money from those who did last.<BR/><BR/>And given the economic cost of the mania, unless you are a very, very big fish, even if you got in and got out first, you would not make anything. It can make you feel wealthy temporarily - just temporarily.<BR/><BR/>Really, you guys need to get educated. You need to _understand_ the word "wealth"<BR/><BR/>TANSTAAFLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147467447391549522006-05-12T16:57:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:57:00.000-04:00I agree with anonymous 1:37PM. The free market is ...I agree with anonymous 1:37PM. The free market is self-correcting. Also, there is a lot of stupid stuff being said on both sides in this comment thread, but that is no reason to stifle free speech.<BR/><BR/>By the way, while we're all busy discussing whether house prices will fall, has anyone noticed the stock market today?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147466272475133592006-05-12T16:37:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:37:00.000-04:00I am glad to see ihateyuppies hijacking the housin...I am glad to see ihateyuppies hijacking the housing bubble blog into a discussion of the ills of capitalism. Of course, the irony is that the housing market will, in fact, fall, if free markets are allowed to operate unfettered and will only be propped up with governemnt support. I believe this leaves some of you with some good ol' cognitive dissonence.<BR/><BR/>Daivd, I love your blog and agree with the bubble, but you do yourself no service by having most of the action take place on the comment threads like this. I have sent a couple of people here to check it out and their uniform reaction has been, intersting posts but the commentors are verging on sociopathy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147465963584678902006-05-12T16:32:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:32:00.000-04:00great posts today...what i've gleaned is that for ...great posts today...<BR/><BR/>what i've gleaned is that for prices to drop we need:<BR/><BR/>1) tightened lending standards<BR/>2) a killer virus that only attacks lobbyist-lawyers<BR/><BR/>and the only immutable truth is BH and HH get along like jews and muslims in the middle east. <BR/><BR/>coincidentally, the above 2 factors will stop moral decay in America and cure rickets in Hungary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147465271448007412006-05-12T16:21:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:21:00.000-04:00Found this interesting post on another blog:"For a...Found this interesting post on another blog:<BR/><BR/>"For all the property owners on this blog who are lucky enough to purchase your properties years earlier (good for you), just want to ask you 2 simple questions:<BR/><BR/>1. Can you afford to purchase your house, at its current value?<BR/>2. Would you repurchase your house, at its current value?<BR/><BR/>If "no" for either, how can you expect the housing price to keep at present level?<BR/><BR/>I'm so tired of the cliche name of "bitter (mean) renter", or the same-old assumption of being chicken 3 years ago not buying when price was low. Were the property price at the same level as three years ago with moderate appreciation (about 5-6% per year), I would buy in a heart beat.<BR/><BR/>Homeowners, assume yourself just finish your college study and find a decent job, or just get married, or simply want to upsize because of growth in family size now, and suddenly face with such out of basic property prices, would you buy? So because some people were born 3 years later, or got married 3 years later, or had child 3 years later than you, they got punished for unreasonbale property prices? Isn't that what you are indicating? Speaking of mean spirit, isn't homeowners' wish of sustaining current property price sort of mean spirit also?"<BR/><BR/>Guess it at least means:<BR/><BR/>1. Not all Bubbleheads are Chicken Little 3 years ago as assumed by HousingHeads.<BR/>2. HousingHeads also take enjoyment in other peoples' suffering.<BR/><BR/>This kind of debate can go on and on, and only time will tell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147465102388412752006-05-12T16:18:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:18:00.000-04:00To all the bubbleheads who hate money.cnn.com and ...To all the bubbleheads who hate money.cnn.com and all the house-prices-can't-fall types who love it, today's headline article is "If you're a speculator ... get out now". The picture next to the headline is of a house inside a bubble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147464566572578562006-05-12T16:09:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:09:00.000-04:00Everyone wants to get rich quick.If that were poss...Everyone wants to get rich quick.<BR/><BR/>If that were possible, everyone would be rich.<BR/><BR/>When "the next new thing" rolls around, really lucky people are already there and make lots of $$$$$. Really, really, really, smart people were likely also there and make lots of $$$$$.<BR/><BR/>Normal smart people, see the developing pattern and get in quickly. They make a lot, but not lots, of $$$.<BR/><BR/>When everyone else starts paying attention, they want to make $$$$$ too. So they give it a go until $$$ declines to $$, goes down to $, and finally is no more...<BR/><BR/>This has happened in the past, is happening now, and will happen again.<BR/><BR/>My blog related opinion now:<BR/><BR/>I think we're on the turning point (the single $) in real estate because I observe people all around me, in the office, at the bar, in the airport, at a cocktail party, all discussing their latest strategy in housing. These are people who likely 3 years ago knew nothing about the industry, and today, still have full time jobs doing something else. They're far from dedicated to a job in the RE industry, they're novices all trying to cash in.<BR/><BR/>What concerns me are the every day people caught up in the frenzy. There are plenty of people who do only want to buy a house for the long haul. Will they pay too much? Will lenders convince them they are fine? That they can refinance for lower in 2 years with 40% appreciation? 20% YOY growth is just not sustainable...<BR/><BR/>My $0.02.MyTwoCentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10642606797401998999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147464448656781852006-05-12T16:07:00.000-04:002006-05-12T16:07:00.000-04:00Re agenda, read a few posts, it should become appa...Re agenda, read a few posts, it should become apparent. But I'll try to summarize it for you:<BR/><BR/>1. Renters deserve respect.<BR/><BR/>2. The real estate market will crash (this is not open to debate).<BR/><BR/>3. Anyone who questions no. 2 is a flipper, bagholder, or someother variation of a homeowner.<BR/><BR/>4. Bubbleheads do not question other bubbleheads' assertions re real estate market. For example, if a Bubblehead states that condo prices will drop at least 80%, only flippers or bagholders will be critical of such assertion.<BR/><BR/>5. Although all renters deserve respect for their choice to rent (see no. 1) renters may opt to buy real estate, but only in the future after the market crashes (see no. 2). <BR/><BR/>6. In the event a bubblehead owns real estate, or intends to purchase real estate, said bubblehead is to be distinguished from the flippers and other scum referenced in no. 3 because bubbleheads buy real estate as homes not investments.<BR/><BR/>7. Bubbleheads have superior analysis skills, thus they correctly predicted the real estate market crash before anyone else. <BR/><BR/>8. Bubbleheads may not discuss their failure to buy property during 1999-2001(and thus proft from the real estate run-up) because this failure would tarnish their self-described analysis and prediction skills described above.<BR/><BR/>9. Bubbleheads may take enjoyment in other peoples' suffering. Foreclosures, bankruptcies, ruined credit, and other suffering is accepted in the bubblehead society as certain people (see no. 3) getting what they deserve.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I may update as further details of agenda become knownAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147463788801296382006-05-12T15:56:00.000-04:002006-05-12T15:56:00.000-04:00Flippers and landlords buy a home as an "investmen...Flippers and landlords buy a home as an "investment". They don't buy it to live in. They buy it for someone else to live in.<BR/><BR/>However, I strongly suspect that the cap rates are too low in the DC area to make much money as a landlord. That's why so many apartment buildings are being converted to condos. That leaves just the flippers, most of whom probably don't even know what a cap rate is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147463023746654492006-05-12T15:43:00.000-04:002006-05-12T15:43:00.000-04:00"I find this distinction to be an artificial const..."I find this distinction to be an artificial construct, created by by bubbleheads, and utilized to further their agenda."<BR/><BR/>What is the bubblehead agenda? Just so I know...I must have missed the memo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147462725903791152006-05-12T15:38:00.000-04:002006-05-12T15:38:00.000-04:00"There is a distinct difference between some on wh..."There is a distinct difference between some on who is buying a home to make money or someone who is buying a home to live in"<BR/><BR/>I find this distinction to be an artificial construct, created by by bubbleheads, and utilized to further their agenda.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147462354919911722006-05-12T15:32:00.000-04:002006-05-12T15:32:00.000-04:00"Today's myth seems to be lawyers in DC drive hous..."Today's myth seems to be lawyers in DC drive housing prices. Tomorrow we will be back to not making anymore land or federal government workers. All these explanations are tired and don't address the root cause, which is lending standards and credit availability."<BR/><BR/>Thanks for sharing your undoubtedly accurate assesement of the problem. Certainly your myths are more accurate than any of the others.<BR/><BR/>Wait, is everybody here color blind, real estate analysis is only black and white, there's no possibility of a combination of a number of various factors driving the real estate market? Apparently not. Its only credit and lenders. Well at least the banks can take the blame instead of the lawyers (finally!). <BR/><BR/>Perhaps somebody tell David the blog can take a holiday, Anon 12:11 has solved all of the bubble mystery.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147462181658795132006-05-12T15:29:00.001-04:002006-05-12T15:29:00.001-04:00Anon at 12:21 p.m.It pains me to agree with you. ...Anon at 12:21 p.m.<BR/><BR/>It pains me to agree with you. Even bubbleheads like myself want a decent return on my property some day.ihateyuppieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14656529543240441687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1147462153586532102006-05-12T15:29:00.000-04:002006-05-12T15:29:00.000-04:00Anon 12:21,There is a distinct difference between ...Anon 12:21,<BR/>There is a distinct difference between some on who is buying a home to make money or someone who is buying a home to live in. <BR/><BR/>You are correct in stating that,<BR/>"The truth is that everybody wants to buy property that’s a good investment."<BR/><BR/>However, my intention is not to make a killing, just to not lose alot of money and have more personal freedom than apartment living affords.<BR/><BR/>Ihate yuppies,<BR/>There are many federal jobs around the country that I kind transfer to, but I unfortunately started dating someone here! But, we both have talked about leaving the area if things stay out of whack as they are now.<BR/>The funny thing is that federal wages are only a few thousand dollars less in other areas. I thought the cola would be huge here, it is not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com