tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post114817787394471935..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: More PicturesDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148430749746733552006-05-23T20:32:00.000-04:002006-05-23T20:32:00.000-04:00Anon said: "I've also watched as Beuregard, Fillmo...Anon said: <BR/><BR/>"I've also watched as Beuregard, Fillmore, and Visio all dropped their prices."<BR/><BR/>Yep. Their asking prices were too high, so they reduced. This demonstrates that the market has cooled down since the days when people came in above asking for everything. But it doesn't show much more than that. The amount that they dropped still turned the developers healthy profits and outpaced the prices paid for units in that area in the past. Notably, if you search for Terraza around the various local websites, you'll see that 4 of the units there are under contract. They haven't really been on the market all that long, given the "transitional" neighborhood in which they sit and the fact that they are relatively small "luxury" condos.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148404678788054432006-05-23T13:17:00.000-04:002006-05-23T13:17:00.000-04:00Anonymous wrote:in particular: terraza has already...Anonymous wrote:<BR/><BR/><I>in particular: terraza has already sold half of its units, fillmore is sold out except for two units, and recently sold a penthouse for over $900k, the "blue building" (cityview) has been sold out for some time, the visio is sold out, and that leaves only the beauregard.</I><BR/><BR/>I live at 11th & W and this is simply not true. In particular, the Terraza had "sold" stickers on 2 of the 3 front units months ago. Then they disappeared, then the Terraza units weren't listed anywhere. Then 5 of them showed up on zip realty with days on the market reset to zero. Definitely some shennanigans going on there. I've also watched as Beuregard, Fillmore, and Visio all dropped their prices. Meanwhile, there are lots of unsold units in the 2020 lofts (see lockboxes around back), and two more 100+ units buildings are set to open very soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148403740771570202006-05-23T13:02:00.000-04:002006-05-23T13:02:00.000-04:00Scooby Doo,The fact that you have anecdotal eviden...Scooby Doo,<BR/><BR/>The fact that you have anecdotal evidence that people are still flipping doesn't prove anything. DC is fundamentally different from Florida and NoVa because so many people work in the District and are unwilling to deal with the time costs of commuting. Yes, the market is plainly overvalued. Yes, supply is currently exceeding demand. But well placed units in good neighborhoods still fly off the market, even though it is a buyer's market. Simply put, there are some places that people want to LIVE so badly that even inflated prices will not stop them. As long as sufficient numbers of people continue to want to live in those areas, even with higher supply, even with higher interest rates, there won't be a collapse. A flattening, or even a decline, yes. A collapse? It's certainly possible, but treating it like it's inevitable makes you as foolhardy as people who still think they'll double their money on a townhouse in Reston.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148393818331401562006-05-23T10:16:00.000-04:002006-05-23T10:16:00.000-04:00And a friend of mine bought in one of the new down...And a friend of mine bought in one of the new downtown condos with the intent of living there for the next 5-7 years.<BR/><BR/>So what?<BR/><BR/>And I agree with 3:48 above on calling BS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148338082738123602006-05-22T18:48:00.000-04:002006-05-22T18:48:00.000-04:00David, you say: "I post these pics to show all the...David, you say: "I post these pics to show all the condo development occuring in the DC metro area."<BR/><BR/>I call BS. You post these to show that there is an OVER-supply of condos in the DC area, thus lending credence to your prediction that prices will collapse. I agree that there is probably an oversupply, but they continue to be bought up, and not just by people flipping them, even places that have come onto the market in the wake of fed warnings and economic reports demonstrating weakness in the fundamentals of the condo market. My point is that showing a string of pictures of DC condo developments doesn't really help your claim unless and until the bottom falls out on the demand side. Until then, all it proves is that DC is undergoing rapid gentrification/development in certain neighborhoods, most notably Logan Circle (in the end stages), Columbia Heights, the NE H St Corridor, and Shaw/Mt Vernon Sq.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148332322988872592006-05-22T17:12:00.000-04:002006-05-22T17:12:00.000-04:00Lots of construction, I agree. Too bad that middl...Lots of construction, I agree. Too bad that middle and lower income people can buy into DC real estate.ihateyuppieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14656529543240441687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148332243075876402006-05-22T17:10:00.000-04:002006-05-22T17:10:00.000-04:00many flipper and specuvestors bought.many flipper and specuvestors bought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148330927403740982006-05-22T16:48:00.000-04:002006-05-22T16:48:00.000-04:00So lots of new construction going on in the center...So lots of new construction going on in the center of DC. And many of these projects are sold out.<BR/><BR/>Yep, clearly a bubble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148330191130023202006-05-22T16:36:00.000-04:002006-05-22T16:36:00.000-04:00"you guys really need to check your facts. most of..."you guys really need to check your facts. most of these buildings you have up here have SOLD OUT, and many of them have sold and been resold."<BR/><BR/>I never claimed this. I post these pics to show all the condo development occuring in the DC metro area.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148329467626239622006-05-22T16:24:00.000-04:002006-05-22T16:24:00.000-04:00in particular: terraza has already sold half of it...in particular: terraza has already sold half of its units, fillmore is sold out except for two units, and recently sold a penthouse for over $900k, the "blue building" (cityview) has been sold out for some time, the visio is sold out, and that leaves only the beauregard. <BR/><BR/>you post these pictures as if they prove something, other than the fact that there are condos being built in columbia heights. yes. there are. the question is whether prices will come tumbling down, or whether enough people want to move in columbia heights (given the expansion of businesses and transportation networks to that part of dc and the rising costs and time-demands of commuting in the dc area) that prices will stabilize after rising interest rates and supply push down the pressure that has existed over the past couple of years. if you want to be taken seriously, you should engage that question seriously, rather than with misleading and utterly meaningless picture galleries.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148329124177299682006-05-22T16:18:00.000-04:002006-05-22T16:18:00.000-04:00you guys really need to check your facts. most of...you guys really need to check your facts. most of these buildings you have up here have SOLD OUT, and many of them have sold and been resold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148325306939560472006-05-22T15:15:00.000-04:002006-05-22T15:15:00.000-04:00"the latest fads they have bought into, whether it..."the latest fads they have bought into, whether it be internet stocks or DC area real estate."<BR/><BR/>Or the NFL, or one of its franchisees in particular. What a waste of time and money (the fad called NFL). God knows that fad is unsustainable.... Who's gonna buy all that overpriced paraphanalia, or pay to see a team practice in Ashburn...? wait....nevermind.<BR/><BR/>Regarding contradictory statements:<BR/>"Also, your idea that somehow all these big businesses are making these bets on DC real estate... so what? "<BR/><BR/>So you think big biz is frivolous (making "bets") with $150M,$400M, even $1B Capital expenditures in a market that is whithering away? If you aren't sure what "capital expenditure" means, look it up before you draw a parallel between capital expenditures and an over-inflated equities market. The difference is substantial. If a business can reasonably expect a return on its capital investment, it will make the investment. That is very different from Joe Football-Fan in Arlington (how many guys like that are there?) speculating over a six pack that he can flip an overpriced condo for a profit in two years.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148324169726125312006-05-22T14:56:00.000-04:002006-05-22T14:56:00.000-04:00bryce-I didn't backpedal about anything. I stand ...bryce-<BR/><BR/>I didn't backpedal about anything. I stand by all my comments on here, none of which are contradictory.<BR/><BR/>Yeah, things have changed from time to time in my life, but in the last ten years, it seems there has been one constant-- people who are very confident in the prices of the latest fads they have bought into, whether it be internet stocks or DC area real estate.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148314125369690132006-05-22T12:08:00.001-04:002006-05-22T12:08:00.001-04:00David, I see you were in my neighborhood over the ...David, I see you were in my neighborhood over the weekend. How come you didn't stop by for tea and scones? <BR/><BR/>www.dcbubble.blogspot.comdcbubble.blogspothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559033937374496586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148314107655126872006-05-22T12:08:00.000-04:002006-05-22T12:08:00.000-04:00reposting a portion of 'Skin's post in case anyone...reposting a portion of 'Skin's post in case anyone missed it above. Please note the superior attitude ("I find it funny when...), the obligatory nod to the possibility that things change from time to time in this life ("I do not believe trends indicate what will happen in the future").<BR/><BR/>Then be sure to observe his negative outlook about the future ("But what happened over the second half of the 20th century definitely shows that there is nothing inherently upward about DC population growth.") and then see the back-peddaling he performed in his post above.<BR/><BR/>Mix all of this in with the facts I posted about population vs. # of households and the billions of dollars of commercial and federal money flowing into DC proper for long-term investment, and you end up with... another stupid argument on the internet ;-)<BR/><BR/><BR/>"<BR/>...<BR/>Still, I do always find it funny when I meet someone at a party, usually someone who moved to DC within the last five years, and they are bloviating about DC real estate, and their face looks shocked when I tell them how much population the city has lost after they tell me that DC real estate can never go down. All these big experts don't even know that often.<BR/><BR/>I do not believe trends indicate what will happen in the future, so the downward trend in DC population over the last 50 years may have reversed, and could head back up. But what happened over the second half of the 20th century definitely shows that there is nothing inherently upward about DC population growth.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fan"<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148311940809213452006-05-22T11:32:00.000-04:002006-05-22T11:32:00.000-04:00David, in all fairness, that pic you posted of Cri...David, in all fairness, that pic you posted of Crispus Attucks seems deliberately framed to look nasty.<BR/><BR/>Do you even know the history of the park? What was it before it became a park?<BR/><BR/>Did you attend the community event there on Saturday? Did you meet any of the great people who have transformed that plot of land from a storage facility for Bell Atlantic into this:?<BR/><BR/>http://www.crispusattuckspark.org/<BR/><BR/>(see the above website for a more realistic view of what the place is like than what David posted)<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148311657405186712006-05-22T11:27:00.000-04:002006-05-22T11:27:00.000-04:00Skins,The points in your recent post are simple to...Skins,<BR/><BR/>The points in your recent post are simple to counter.<BR/><BR/>"just that history shows it has lost.." Think in terms of "households" and not in terms of raw numbers of people. Then you'd see the reality of the numbers you cite. Or did you really mean to say "Past results are no indication of future performance"? If so, why argue about it? And if so, why are you citing backward-looking data as some kind of scare tactic at "parties"? <BR/><BR/>"so what? First off, some are probably getting big tax incentives" Ummm... exactly. So big biz entities make solid, savvy business decisions, and your point is that those decisions are too easy? Not very convincing.<BR/><BR/>"second, the internet stock bubble of 96-2000 shows that big money with big named financial and economic advisers can make big mistakes." Target and Merril Lynch are in fundamentally different lines of business. One sells tactile goods to a broad demographic swath of people through brick and mortar structures set up on tracts of land. (aka "Real Estate") The other sells equities and consulting services to investors/speculators. Or did you mean to compare Cisco Systems to Target?<BR/><BR/>Or did you mean to compare Enron with Safeway? Or MCI with Lockheed Martin? Anyway you slice it, it doesn't make sense.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148308585118002512006-05-22T10:36:00.000-04:002006-05-22T10:36:00.000-04:00Bryce,I never said that DC WILL lost lots of peopl...Bryce,<BR/><BR/>I never said that DC WILL lost lots of people; just that history shows it has lost. Did you read the last paragraph of what I wrote?<BR/><BR/>Also, your idea that somehow all these big businesses are making these bets on DC real estate... so what? First off, some are probably getting big tax incentives, which makes it an easier decision. But second, the internet stock bubble of 96-2000 shows that big money with big named financial and economic advisers can make big mistakes.<BR/><BR/>Finally, just for the record, I never said I was *invited* to any parties, nor that they were *cocktail* parties. I merely said I am at parties. Again, some more attention to detail please.<BR/><BR/>A Redskins fanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148308182657014162006-05-22T10:29:00.000-04:002006-05-22T10:29:00.000-04:00fritz,"clear that he hopes many of the recent arri...fritz,<BR/><BR/>"clear that he hopes many of the recent arrivals in DC will take a massive financial hit in real estate, leave the city, and then the city will fall into ruin."<BR/><BR/>This is a ficticious accusation. I hope DC continues to better city. There are so many wonderful things about DC. I know I spend much time here. <BR/><BR/>If you continue to falsely accuse me and / or put words in my mouth I will delete your posts. BE WARNED.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148306246124304742006-05-22T09:57:00.000-04:002006-05-22T09:57:00.000-04:00David likes to play games with words and semantics...David likes to play games with words and semantics. While it is true he has not said that DC is a dead or dying city, his posts make clear that he hopes many of the recent arrivals in DC will take a massive financial hit in real estate, leave the city, and then the city will fall into ruin.<BR/><BR/>At least be man enough to come out and say that's what your hopes are. Stop pussyfooting around with the semantics and just tell people that you hope they go bankrupt so that you can then stand up and pat yourself on your back for the lone voice of reason in the wilderness for so long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148301338750204212006-05-22T08:35:00.000-04:002006-05-22T08:35:00.000-04:00Not talk'n 'bout chew :-)When 'skins fan attends c...Not talk'n 'bout chew :-)<BR/><BR/>When 'skins fan attends cocktail parties (!), he points out to the other attendees that our Nation's Capital is on a long, slow path of decline. (See his post)<BR/><BR/>Sounds like he needs to get together with big money (Target, Abdo, Lockheed Martin, Federal Government, MLB, etc.) and provide them with the same information. After all, with billions of dollars in the pipeline for development, you'd think they would appreciate being informed that there may be no people around in 10 years. Could save them some money, right?<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148298145659486882006-05-22T07:42:00.000-04:002006-05-22T07:42:00.000-04:00I do not think or ever implied DC was a dead city....I do not think or ever implied DC was a dead city. These accusations are baseless.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148270118793993802006-05-21T23:55:00.000-04:002006-05-21T23:55:00.000-04:00$1Billion in development slated to come to long-ne...$1Billion in development slated to come to long-neglected stretch of NE DC. This is in progress, not hypothetical. A must-read, especially since it talks about other projects underway with a similar scale. Now if only the folks spending the multiple billions of dollars would get the message that DC is a dead city....we could feel better about ourselves. Maybe David could send them email messages, referring them to his blog and telling them to snap out of it?<BR/><BR/>http://abdo.com/press/01/article_washpost_nov05.html <BR/><BR/>yeah, its me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148263065028520702006-05-21T21:57:00.000-04:002006-05-21T21:57:00.000-04:00From the Friday, May 5, 2006, Washington Business ...From the Friday, May 5, 2006, Washington Business Journal on page 18:<BR/> <BR/> <BR/>DC Sets New $1 Billion Plan For Old Convention Center<BR/> <BR/>by Sean Madigan, Senior Staff Reporter<BR/> <BR/> <BR/>Downtown DC's $1.1 billion shopping and entertainment complex is taking shape.<BR/> <BR/>After more than five years of planning, plodding and planning again, city officials and members of the Hines-led team of developers were expected to present on May 4, 2006, their master plan for the 10.2-acre redevelopment of the old convention center site. <BR/> <BR/>Their mixed-use concept lays out nine buildings, housing 300,000 to 400,000 square feet of office space, about 770 apartments and condominiums, at least 275,000 square feet of reteail and potentiallly a $180 million library. <BR/> <BR/>Planners at Sir Norman Foster's Foster and Partners envision reopening 10th and I Streets NW and creating a public plaza at the corner of New York Avenue and 11th Streets NW. <BR/> <BR/>They also want a separate plaza on the site's southeast portion -- about one-third of an acre -- lined with restaurants and functioning as a pavilion for concerts and events. <BR/> <BR/>Nearly the entire site is expected to include street-level retail. <BR/> <BR/>Earlier this year, developer Kingdon Gould III agreed to a land swap with DC, giving up his property near the new convention center and getting the northeast corner of the old convention center site. While Gould is obligated to put retail on the ground level, he has not determined the uses for the rest. <BR/> <BR/>City officials and the developers say they are on track to break ground by 2008, and the complex is expected to open in 2011.<BR/><BR/>me againAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-1148262511479853662006-05-21T21:48:00.000-04:002006-05-21T21:48:00.000-04:00"Population is down, but what about the number of ..."Population is down, but what about the number of households?"<BR/><BR/>Excellent question, and your answer was right on target. Unfortunately the answer often proves to be too complex for many people to grasp. The last time this came up at this site, there was a shrill "sky is falling" attitude about the contraction in the city's population. <BR/><BR/>The explanation for the simultaneous decrease in population and increase in number of occupied households was lost on some in the "sky is falling" crowd.<BR/><BR/>If one looks just beyond the factual demographic data, it may be possible to identify a successful niche retail market opportunity.... However, rather than take advantage of opportunities let's all just yell about how horrible things are. It is much easier that way. Bah humbug.<BR/><BR/>bryceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com