tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post9091857769972586396..comments2024-01-27T19:26:32.604-05:00Comments on Bubble Meter: Dow Jones: Home prices have not bottomedDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-11362134832217717252009-08-23T10:54:40.810-04:002009-08-23T10:54:40.810-04:00ibc, that encyclopedia that took you 4 hours to wr...<i>ibc, that encyclopedia that took you 4 hours to write bored me and I didnt even read it.</i><br /><br />No offense taken! I figured you wouldn't read it, or even if you managed to muddle through it, that you'd be capable of understanding how it related to your fatuous claims about income/price. It was for general consumption.<br /><br />Cheers!ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-50156022669987067592009-08-23T10:54:13.770-04:002009-08-23T10:54:13.770-04:00ibc, that encyclopedia that took you 4 hours to wr...<i>ibc, that encyclopedia that took you 4 hours to write bored me and I didnt even read it.</i><br /><br />No offense taken! I figured you wouldn't read it, or even if you managed to muddle through it, that you'd be capable of understanding how it related to your fatuous claims about income/price. It was for general consumption.<br /><br />Cheers!ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-83570971445908926482009-08-22T07:04:56.797-04:002009-08-22T07:04:56.797-04:00...and now then they come back and say home prices......and now then they come back and say home prices and household incomes dont really matter anyway!<br /><br />THE BEST!<br /><br />p.s. ibc, that encyclopedia that took you 4 hours to write bored me and I didnt even read it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-15286590451545431382009-08-21T13:44:45.352-04:002009-08-21T13:44:45.352-04:00Damnit, I meant Anon 8:00. Vague apologies to Ano...Damnit, I meant Anon 8:00. Vague apologies to Anon 8:53.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-64872990883770383322009-08-21T11:55:17.384-04:002009-08-21T11:55:17.384-04:00Got to becareful there because there is a lot of o...<i>Got to becareful there because there is a lot of old money in Potomac and business owners who report income based on the salery they pay themself vs what they are actually making.</i><br /><br />Exactly.<br /><br />And talking about "average salary" in the District is almost completely meaningless, as income doesn't fall on a normal distribution. There are a lot of DC residents (mostly renters) who live in poverty. Much more so than in Potomac, or any other local municipality.<br /><br />It's the same reason that a high unemployment rate in the District doesn't necessarily have any bearing on foreclosure rates. The folks who buy homes in DC are not the sort of folks who lose their jobs in large numbers in this economy.<br /><br />From a 2007 WaPo <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/01/AR2007090101234.html" rel="nofollow">article</a>:<br /><br />"The disparities are particularly pronounced in the District, which ranks third in income inequality among cities with populations of 300,000 or more. Non-Hispanic whites in the District have a median household income of $91,631, and the figure drops to $34,484 for blacks. Hispanic residents fare only slightly better, with a median household income of $43,547. Asians have a median household income of $67,137."<br /><br />That's $91,000/year for non-Hispanic whites, in a city that has a particularly high renter population. It makes sense that the median household income for non-renters would be even higher.<br /><br />Anyway, the disparities make any kind of simplistic analysis useless. So long as gentrification continues apace, DC housing prices will be stable.<br /><br />Oh, and anon 8:53: Decaf buddy. Shrill, frothing is bad for the blood pressure, and invites a host of maladies.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-27046182814832543792009-08-21T08:53:31.451-04:002009-08-21T08:53:31.451-04:00"$150K a year is on par or even MORE than wha..."$150K a year is on par or even MORE than what average families in Potomac make.<br />"<br /><br />Got to becareful there because there is a lot of old money in Potomac and business owners who report income based on the salery they pay themself vs what they are actually making.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-62855373055270708402009-08-21T08:00:51.461-04:002009-08-21T08:00:51.461-04:00"$1M townhouses in PG county? Wow, I don'..."$1M townhouses in PG county? Wow, I don't get out into the burbs that often, is that pretty common?"<br /><br />No I was replying to this you utter complete moron. Learn to follow a conversation.<br /><br />"banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $150K salary $500k to buy that box you call a rowhouse."<br /><br />$150K a year is on par or even MORE than what average families in Potomac make.<br /><br />$500K for a box rowhouse in or around PG county is pretty common as well.<br /><br />Does this clear things up for your pea brain? Its funny how stupid you are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-74947863922867520592009-08-20T10:32:39.565-04:002009-08-20T10:32:39.565-04:00Anon wrote:
Foreclosures on the liar loans and th...Anon wrote:<br /><br /><i>Foreclosures on the liar loans and the banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $80K salary $1M to buy that box you call a rowhouse.</i><br /><br />And now writes:<br /><br /><i>Are you putting potomac salaries in PG county again?</i><br /><br />$1M townhouses in PG county? Wow, I don't get out into the burbs that often, is that pretty common? <br /><br />As bad as the suburban RE bubble sounds, it must be worse than I thought.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-84713833667697291002009-08-20T07:37:33.804-04:002009-08-20T07:37:33.804-04:00Ajax said: "Exactly as Lance and others predi...Ajax said: "Exactly as Lance and others predicted. Not in my neighborhood..."<br /><br />Don't break out the champagne just yet. Interest rates are being kept extremely and artificially low right now. That has done a lot to put a floor under prices this year. What do you think will happen when rates go back up to 6.5%? How about 7.5%? <br /><br />That's right, buyers' top line will be pushed down by up to 20%. This will be enforced by the lending banks and this happens across the board, so no place is immune to the effect of rising interest rates. And rates will definitely rise.<br /><br />I'm pretty sensitive to this issue since, as a potential buyer, I see my approved loan amount fluctuate in lockstep with the interest rate. It also makes me wary of buying when housing is affordable only because interest rates are very low. The low interest rates are only favorable when prices haven't risen to match them.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-31219076554622778942009-08-20T07:19:34.296-04:002009-08-20T07:19:34.296-04:00"Here, let me fix that for you:
...banks not..."Here, let me fix that for you:<br /><br />...banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $150K salary $500k to buy that box you call a rowhouse.<br /><br />Your welcome."<br /><br />Are you putting potomac salaries in PG county again?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-10092579418506219162009-08-19T22:25:03.387-04:002009-08-19T22:25:03.387-04:00IBC:
Ok, so (with my limited knowledge of the LA ...IBC:<br /><br /><b>Ok, so (with my limited knowledge of the LA market) Zillow says that the median home price in Silver Lake (90039) was $229k in 1990, $678k at the peak in 2008, and now down to $500k. Meanwhile, a gentrified zip in DC--say 2002--was at $100k peaked at $400k, and currently sits at $350k</b><br /><br />I'll bet the run up in those areas is also out of phase. Just a guess...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-31658958541470424002009-08-19T20:59:37.246-04:002009-08-19T20:59:37.246-04:00"...banks not loaning people who only make th..."...banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $150K salary $500k to buy that box you call a rowhouse."<br /><br />I guess I'm way too conservative. I would never take on a $500K mortgage with an income of $150K. I guess that's part of why I'm still renting.<br /><br />ibc, I agree that there is too much generalization in the discussion. I also share the opinion that DC area housing was somewhat undervalued back in the late 90s, when I moved here.<br /> <br />By the way, what are those income numbers for Arlington & Alexandria. I see in 2007 that the estimated median household income in Alexandria City was about $80K (it was $56K in 1999) and the median home value was about $555K (it was $202K in 2000). 2007 seems out of whack to me, especially when compared to the ratio around 2000. Arlington was similar in the aggregate. Have things changed since then? (source: city-data.com)wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-78530658549076690442009-08-19T20:44:51.246-04:002009-08-19T20:44:51.246-04:00runup in income and ton of gentrification
You'...<i>runup in income and ton of gentrification</i><br /><br />You'll probably see the next big price gains in Hyattsville, around RFK, and east of the river, would be my guess.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-63774824869255196562009-08-19T20:15:46.946-04:002009-08-19T20:15:46.946-04:00"After seeing that Census data, on the income..."After seeing that Census data, on the income growth in Arlington & Alexandria, I will concede those areas are pretty bulletproof."<br /><br />Exactly as Lance and others predicted.<br /><br />Not in my neighborhood...<br /><br />...Thanks.Ajaxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-76643766466018771752009-08-19T19:00:51.593-04:002009-08-19T19:00:51.593-04:00"Wireknob said...
But prices still have to f..."Wireknob said...<br /><br />But prices still have to fall in line with incomes, no? That was the point of my earlier question. Just because something is more desirable doesn't mean that enough people can afford to pay current prices for it and sustain those prices. The higher the price the lower the demand, right? Are homes like yours in such short supply relative to the population of upper middle-class types that can afford them?"<br /><br /><br />EXACTLY!!! So lets be clear about what we are talking about here. After seeing that Census data, on the income growth in Arlington & Alexandria, I will concede those areas are pretty bulletproof. And maybe, MAYBE DC, although the jury is still out on that.<br /><br />But where else? Where else did they have that huge runup in income and ton of gentrification? The data doesnt say ANYWHERE else in DC area had the type of gains Arlington & Alexandria did.<br /><br />So, for the rest of the DC area, especially the high end, I still think their day or reconing is coming...and I cant wait to see it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-17869571772759716452009-08-19T18:56:31.227-04:002009-08-19T18:56:31.227-04:00Here, let me fix that for you:
...banks not loani...Here, let me fix that for you:<br /><br /><i>...banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $150K salary $500k to buy that box you call a rowhouse.</i><br /><br />Your welcome.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-56060616894623838712009-08-19T18:55:21.104-04:002009-08-19T18:55:21.104-04:00Looking at a sampling of the data, housing prices ...<i>Looking at a sampling of the data, housing prices are clearly out of line with incomes in many areas around here. Perhaps not in your area, though...</i><br /><br />Not that my opinion matters much, but I think it's pretty obvious that there was a housing bubble nationally, and in the "DC area". <br /><br />I just think it's amusing when folks fail to recognize there's a difference between price increases in, say, Dumfries, VA, versus what were some of the most burnt-out urban hell-holes in the country, but are now pleasant upper-middle class enclaves.<br /><br />Like you said, in many areas, prices are out of line with incomes. But urban crime and blight had an incredibly distorting effect on the DC market proper for many, many years--I would argue more so than any other RE market in the country.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-29685685828574448102009-08-19T18:35:36.771-04:002009-08-19T18:35:36.771-04:00"I won't say it's impossible for that..."I won't say it's impossible for that to happen, but it would require a dirty bomb explosion, a catastrophic Race War (tm)...."<br /><br />Or foreclosures on the liar loans and the banks not loaning people who only make the average family household $80K salary $1M to buy that box you call a rowhouse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-75795218562134812692009-08-19T18:34:18.254-04:002009-08-19T18:34:18.254-04:00ibc said: "For houses in my little corner of...ibc said: "For houses in my little corner of the world to fall to 1990 prices..."<br /><br />Who said anything about 1990 prices? I may have missed it, but I only recall seeing predicted price declines to late 90's to early 2000s levels. I agree with you that a fall to 1990 prices would be exceedingly unlikely, and I'm pretty pessimistic. Sounds like your area probably won't even fall to early 2000 levels if it has improved as much as you say (i.e., it's inherent value has increased). <br /><br />But prices still have to fall in line with incomes, no? That was the point of my earlier question. Just because something is more desirable doesn't mean that enough people can afford to pay current prices for it and sustain those prices. The higher the price the lower the demand, right? Are homes like yours in such short supply relative to the population of upper middle-class types that can afford them?<br /><br />There is a lot of very desirable, and very expensive, housing in the DC area. Are there enough people making enough money to keep the prices for that housing afloat in the longer run, though? Looking at a sampling of the data, housing prices are clearly out of line with incomes in many areas around here. Perhaps not in your area, though.wireknobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-86271891068268268062009-08-19T18:33:54.352-04:002009-08-19T18:33:54.352-04:00Many places in LA have....Tujunga, many parts of N...<i>Many places in LA have....Tujunga, many parts of North Hollywood, Toluca Lake, Silverlake, etc...</i><br /><br />Ok, so (with my limited knowledge of the LA market) Zillow says that the median home price in Silver Lake (90039) was $229k in 1990, $678k at the peak in 2008, and now down to $500k. Meanwhile, a gentrified zip in DC--say 20002--was at $100k peaked at $400k, and currently sits at $350k <br /><br /><br /><i>Many places in AZ and NV, Texas, etc that are being "gentrified" ... <b>riverwalks added, etc</b> are also collapsing fast.</i><br /><br />I think one problem is that you and I may have a different conception of the term "gentrification". Aside from that, the run-up in prices in AZ and NV was pretty much the definition of speculative madness.ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-29434107977351981562009-08-19T18:30:24.493-04:002009-08-19T18:30:24.493-04:00The funniest part about the argument between noz, ...The funniest part about the argument between noz, non-partisan and partisan....<br /><br />is that in 2013 they will probably still be arguing about when the bottom will be, because if the bottom hasnt hit yet, one thing is for CERTAIN, and I mean like death and taxes certain.....prices are NOT EVER GOING TO GO UP in the DC area for at least 15 years at the point they are at now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-52696324033490433412009-08-19T17:45:12.453-04:002009-08-19T17:45:12.453-04:00I also forgot to mention...many places in AZ and N...I also forgot to mention...many places in AZ and NV, Texas, etc that are being "gentrified"...riverwalks added, etc are also collapsing fast.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-29626810662019395652009-08-19T17:44:19.784-04:002009-08-19T17:44:19.784-04:00Many places in LA have....Tujunga, many parts of N...Many places in LA have....Tujunga, many parts of North Hollywood, Toluca Lake, Silverlake, etc...<br /><br />There are many many areas...the for sales signs (many of which are by owner) are everywhere,..even in Santa Monica areas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-65783028387798267542009-08-19T17:37:48.531-04:002009-08-19T17:37:48.531-04:00Funny....there are many places around the country ...<i>Funny....there are many places around the country that have been gentrified are still going through gentrification that have lost substantial amounts of value.</i><br /><br />You make an interesting point. Got a specific zip code in mind that's seen substantial run-up in value (like say 300%) over the last decade, only to collapse to pre-gentrification levels? <br /><br />Detroit maybe? One of the less-desirable municipalities in California?ibcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13164186.post-89091276152817909392009-08-19T17:26:48.695-04:002009-08-19T17:26:48.695-04:00Funny....there are many places around the country ...Funny....there are many places around the country that have been gentrified are still going through gentrification that have lost substantial amounts of value.<br /><br />Just because a place becomes gentrified does not mean home prices will continue to go up. That's a complete fallacy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com