"In examining the hottest markets for home price appreciation, we see a rolling boom moving from one metro area to another over time, as well as a spillover effect into nearby areas with lower home prices”David Lereah is correct about the idea of a 'rolling boom. After this unprecedented housing bubble there will be significant price declines in the bubble markets. The soft landing scenario is not in the cards. A 20 - 30% inflation adjusted price declines will occur in most of the bubble markets.
“That is spreading the wealth of housing returns, with a natural easing of appreciation in areas following a period of extraordinary price growth. Even after slowing in a given area, prices typically have continued to rise faster than historic norms."
Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
Sunday, October 09, 2005
David Lereah's Recent Statements
David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors® recently said ( as reported by the Chattanoogan):
The 'rolling boom' is a correct comment in that the bubble started in the major bubble markets ( LA, San Fran, LV) then fanned out to smaller markets like Reno and Bakersfield etc.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the boom in 'bubblette' cities ( Bakersfield) is over as well.
The bust has begun. Stagnation and small price declines are now the norm.