Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Sales Declining in DC Area
April 2006 Year over Year (YoY) Housing Units Sold in Locales in Washington, DC Metro Area
Eastern Loudoun County is an armpit, and the rest of it will probably be ruined before long. I've never seen more haphazard, frenzied development anywhere. Ashburn is the worst -- just a sprawling mishmash of drab gray townhouses, strip malls, and cookie-cutter mcmansions. When they put up a new development, they clear-cut every single mature tree and then replace them with 10-ft tall contractor McTrees.
Only 20%!? Since when is a 20% drop off in sales in any industry a good sign?
Yes, in absolute terms, dollar and sales volumes are still record setting, but I wouldn't be betting on continued growth (speculating) in a market with figures like this.
Have you ever driven on route 7 westbound right before it meets up with route 28? There's a large Home Depot right there and a bunch of shopping complexes.
It is such a dreary sight on the north side of 7. You have rows and rows of townhouses just packed in where ever a developer can fit them. There's really no where to go walking to or anything either. Just row upon row of indistinguishable town houses.
I remember biking on the W&OD bike trial between Rt 28 and Leesburg back in 88'. I enjoyed watching the planes fly overhead and going by beautiful farmland scenery. Now it's McDevelopments and sickning. It's a shame to see a beautiful county such as Loudon go downhill.
""When they put up a new development, they clear-cut every single mature tree and then replace them with 10-ft tall contractor McTrees.""
This is so true. It isn't an isolated thing, either. Thousands of trees are cleared away and then sad looking seedlings are planted in their place. Many of the newly planted trees are completely neglected and die.
Is everyone familiar with the Dulles "Town" Center? It is a big shopping mall that stands were a forest once grew. Watching the trees be cut down while that grotesque monument to car-centric consumerism took their place was disheartening, to say the least. What an awful place!
"The overall declining % is only around 20%, with some county only 15% (Montgomery county). It only proves what some real estate experts say " 2006 will not be as good as 2005, but will be the 3rd record year in history"
This stuff is funny. Do all of you have a "the glass is half empty" mentality in all of your approaches to life? Sure, there's a slow-down. However, if people were to listen to you, they'd need to receive treatment for depression. Thanks a lot, Chicken Little. Look! They sky is falling. Run. Run very fast. ;-)
Parts of me think some of you are disgruntled real estate investors.
David, you are too much. The phrase "Housing Industrial Complex," which you use repeatedly with initial caps, is such a loaded term in America, and so disproportionate to the real estate market, that I am begining to think that this whole site is some kind of meta-joke put on for your amusement, sort of like poking a bees nest. In which case I tip my hat to you because this site is, in reality, becoming pretty darn funny.
"the phrase "Housing Industrial Complex," which you use repeatedly with initial caps, is such a loaded term in America, and so disproportionate to the real estate market,"
You are absolutely correct that the term housing industrial complex is such a loaded term. Thats why I choose it to make a point. Perhaps the term is a bit over the top.
"hat I am begining to think that this whole site is some kind of meta-joke put on for your amusement, sort of like poking a bees nest."
Nope. I am very serious in my bubble beliefs. It is sad watching this speculative episode crushing unsuspecting Americans who have overextnded themselves. The main point of this site is so people are informed about the excesses of the market and do NOT become a f*cked borrower (great term).
The tree cutting thing is very true. I watched it go on in Vienna. (Before I sold and bailed to Texas). I saw one project get warned of a $5K/tree fine. The developer clear cut the area (in the dark, all in one night, to avoid a last-minute court injunction) and showed up to the Planning Commission with a check in hand. Paid the fine - just the cost of doing business. Not a big deal when the houses were starting in the low $1.2M!
I sold my house in about 3-weeks but I priced about 5% below all the comps just to get out - and still made a nice profit in the 20 months I was there. The house is now worth probably at least 5% less than what I sold it for and going down...
Okay, let’s look at the number of legislations that have been supported or stalled by the “Housing Industrial Complex” and then evaluate if the term is actually disproportionate;
• Revised bankruptcy legislation making it more difficult for an average person to declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy, • Stalled GSE reform bill, strongly opposed by various Mortgage Bankers, Real Estate Lobby and of course the GSEs, • Use of eminent domain clause for evicting people from their homes to “revitalize” downtowns and putting up more of the same, • Continued tax subsidies for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loans, • New legislation to increase loan limit at FHA as if everyone that wants a loan in America can not already get one, • Developers ability to continually amend zoning laws by taking a few city official on paid “golf trips”, • Freddie Mac pleading guilty to influencing state and local officials through the funding of Revenue Bond programs, and • Last but not the least; NAR, NAHB and the GSEs (which make up the “Realtor Mortgagor Complex”) are some of the largest supporters of the “Congressional Lobbying Complex” right here on K Street.
If someone wants to spend their entire life with their head buried in sand, that’s their prerogative; but to assume that serious efforts to share information amongst those who care just a little bit is for your amusement is little too much to take!!
I apologize in advance for my strong words but the blindness of the Philistines is very hard to swallow.
Anonymous said... Excellent, this blog is descending into vague allegations of nation-wide conspiracies. Not quite an invocation of Goodwin's law, but close enough...
Bwahahaha! Deny the obvious and hope for the best! I love the optimism, good luck!
What a disaster in Loudon. They've ruined what was great countryside.
ReplyDeleteJerkstore
Eastern Loudoun County is an armpit, and the rest of it will probably be ruined before long. I've never seen more haphazard, frenzied development anywhere. Ashburn is the worst -- just a sprawling mishmash of drab gray townhouses, strip malls, and cookie-cutter mcmansions. When they put up a new development, they clear-cut every single mature tree and then replace them with 10-ft tall contractor McTrees.
ReplyDeleteOnly 20%!? Since when is a 20% drop off in sales in any industry a good sign?
ReplyDeleteYes, in absolute terms, dollar and sales volumes are still record setting, but I wouldn't be betting on continued growth (speculating) in a market with figures like this.
My $0.02.
Have you ever driven on route 7 westbound right before it meets up with route 28? There's a large Home Depot right there and a bunch of shopping complexes.
ReplyDeleteIt is such a dreary sight on the north side of 7. You have rows and rows of townhouses just packed in where ever a developer can fit them. There's really no where to go walking to or anything either. Just row upon row of indistinguishable town houses.
My $0.02.
I think the drop off in volume is a reflection of all of the hype about the bubble. In fact, there could be a hype bubble developing.
ReplyDelete"When they put up a new development, they clear-cut every single mature tree and then replace them with 10-ft tall contractor McTrees."
ReplyDeletelol
I remember biking on the W&OD bike trial between Rt 28 and Leesburg back in 88'. I enjoyed watching the planes fly overhead and going by beautiful farmland scenery. Now it's McDevelopments and sickning. It's a shame to see a beautiful county such as Loudon go downhill.
ReplyDeletewvu_84,
ReplyDeleteFarmland? I thought it was mature trees?
Not that I like Loundon, I just dislike the promotion of a non-existent idyllic past more.
""When they put up a new development, they clear-cut every single mature tree and then replace them with 10-ft tall contractor McTrees.""
ReplyDeleteThis is so true. It isn't an isolated thing, either. Thousands of trees are cleared away and then sad looking seedlings are planted in their place. Many of the newly planted trees are completely neglected and die.
Is everyone familiar with the Dulles "Town" Center? It is a big shopping mall that stands were a forest once grew. Watching the trees be cut down while that grotesque monument to car-centric consumerism took their place was disheartening, to say the least. What an awful place!
bryce
"The overall declining % is only around 20%, with some county only 15% (Montgomery county). It only proves what some real estate experts say " 2006 will not be as good as 2005, but will be the 3rd record year in history"
ReplyDeleteYeah -- righhhht!
Well, the entire east coast was at one time essentially treeless, so I think we're doing OK.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not, they had to cut down trees to build DC too.
"
ReplyDeleteYeah -- righhhht!"
convincing.
"Well, the entire east coast was at one time essentially treeless, so I think we're doing OK."
ReplyDeleteAre you quoting Rush Limbaugh here?
"Believe it or not, they had to cut down trees to build DC too."
If you do nothing else, look at this:
http://caseytrees.org/
And remember that DC has one of the largest (perhaps the largest) inner city park in the nation. It is called "Rock Creek Park". Look into it.
bryce
This stuff is funny. Do all of you have a "the glass is half empty" mentality in all of your approaches to life? Sure, there's a slow-down. However, if people were to listen to you, they'd need to receive treatment for depression. Thanks a lot, Chicken Little. Look! They sky is falling. Run. Run very fast. ;-)
ReplyDeleteParts of me think some of you are disgruntled real estate investors.
"Sure, there's a slow-down."
ReplyDeleteAnother Housing Industrial Complex euphamism.
"However, if people were to listen to you, they'd need to receive treatment for depression."
Carry a toxic mortgage and becoming a f*cked borrower would lead many to depression.
"Parts of me think some of you are disgruntled real estate investors."
No way.
David, you are too much. The phrase "Housing Industrial Complex," which you use repeatedly with initial caps, is such a loaded term in America, and so disproportionate to the real estate market, that I am begining to think that this whole site is some kind of meta-joke put on for your amusement, sort of like poking a bees nest. In which case I tip my hat to you because this site is, in reality, becoming pretty darn funny.
ReplyDeleteRegards
"David, you are too much."
ReplyDeleteFunny.
"the phrase "Housing Industrial Complex," which you use repeatedly with initial caps, is such a loaded term in America, and so disproportionate to the real estate market,"
You are absolutely correct that the term housing industrial complex is such a loaded term. Thats why I choose it to make a point. Perhaps the term is a bit over the top.
"hat I am begining to think that this whole site is some kind of meta-joke put on for your amusement, sort of like poking a bees nest."
Nope. I am very serious in my bubble beliefs. It is sad watching this speculative episode crushing unsuspecting Americans who have overextnded themselves. The main point of this site is so people are informed about the excesses of the market and do NOT become a f*cked borrower (great term).
The tree cutting thing is very true. I watched it go on in Vienna. (Before I sold and bailed to Texas). I saw one project get warned of a $5K/tree fine. The developer clear cut the area (in the dark, all in one night, to avoid a last-minute court injunction) and showed up to the Planning Commission with a check in hand. Paid the fine - just the cost of doing business. Not a big deal when the houses were starting in the low $1.2M!
ReplyDeleteI sold my house in about 3-weeks but I priced about 5% below all the comps just to get out - and still made a nice profit in the 20 months I was there. The house is now worth probably at least 5% less than what I sold it for and going down...
buffpilot
Okay, let’s look at the number of legislations that have been supported or stalled by the “Housing Industrial Complex” and then evaluate if the term is actually disproportionate;
ReplyDelete• Revised bankruptcy legislation making it more difficult for an average person to declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy,
• Stalled GSE reform bill, strongly opposed by various Mortgage Bankers, Real Estate Lobby and of course the GSEs,
• Use of eminent domain clause for evicting people from their homes to “revitalize” downtowns and putting up more of the same,
• Continued tax subsidies for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loans,
• New legislation to increase loan limit at FHA as if everyone that wants a loan in America can not already get one,
• Developers ability to continually amend zoning laws by taking a few city official on paid “golf trips”,
• Freddie Mac pleading guilty to influencing state and local officials through the funding of Revenue Bond programs, and
• Last but not the least; NAR, NAHB and the GSEs (which make up the “Realtor Mortgagor Complex”) are some of the largest supporters of the “Congressional Lobbying Complex” right here on K Street.
If someone wants to spend their entire life with their head buried in sand, that’s their prerogative; but to assume that serious efforts to share information amongst those who care just a little bit is for your amusement is little too much to take!!
I apologize in advance for my strong words but the blindness of the Philistines is very hard to swallow.
Excellent, this blog is descending into vague allegations of nation-wide conspiracies. Not quite an invocation of Goodwin's law, but close enough...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteExcellent, this blog is descending into vague allegations of nation-wide conspiracies. Not quite an invocation of Goodwin's law, but close enough...
Bwahahaha! Deny the obvious and hope for the best! I love the optimism, good luck!