Mr. Yun's September 2005 Prediction is Way Off

Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 6.3%.

Do not trust Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

Lereah's Book. Haha

Hattip to John Fountain for alerting me to this.

Making Fun of Countrywide's Mozillo

Yout Tube on HousingPanic

Lance from September 2006

Lance's comment from Septemeber 2006:

"The window of opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase is quickly slipping away, however I suspect most bubbleheads will miss it. I just hope they are on here a year from now explaining why they are still "waiting it out." The justifications will be interesting to hear." ( Comment at September 25, 2006 7:52 AM)

Case Shiller Index Way Down; Washington, DC Area Down 6.5% YoY

Bloomberg News reported that "U.S. home prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since Standard & Poor began its nationwide housing index in 1987, the research group said Tuesday. "

"S&P also reported that prices fell 1.7 percent from the previous quarter, the largest consecutive quarterly decline in the index's history. The S&P/Case-Schiller quarterly index tracks prices of existing single-family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier. "

"A separate index that covers 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 4.9 percent in September from a year earlier. A 10-area index decreased 5.5 percent from the previous year."

MarketWatch adds "Home prices fell in September in all 20 major cities covered by the Case-Shiller price index, even in cities that had been holding up, Standard & Poor's reported.

In the Washington, DC area the price index fell 6.5% from September 2006 . Prices continue to fall in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. In real dollars prices this is almost 10%. For more numbers go to Case Shiller S&P Index.

Greenspan's Recent Statements on Housing & Asset Bubble

Reuters reports: "Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday that U.S. house prices have not bottomed out after a crisis in the subprime mortgage market.

“The markets are becoming aware that the decline in U.S. housing prices is not stopping. It is at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 50 years,” Greenspan told a financial audience in the Norwegian capital.

"He said the housing bubble had burst and the market was “a good deal away” from its selling climax — a point at which sellers ultimately lower their prices to match lower bids.

He said central banks should concentrate on alleviating the economic fallout from burst asset bubbles because they had few methods to prevent them and “lean against the wind.”

“There doesn’t seem to me that there is very much evidence that we can do much about them,” said Greenspan, who oversaw Fed policy during the dot-com bubble and the start of the present housing bubble.

“Irrespective if we could identify them, we could not do much to defuse them,” he said of asset bubbles.

Greenspan could have pulled a Volcker (raise interest rates tremendously) which would pop the housing bubble. Not that I would support that. In retrospect, Mr. Greenspan allowed interest rates to be too low, for too long.

Negative Sales in Las Vegas by Toll Brothers

In Las Vegas ,Toll Brothers is not reducing prices on its luxury housing units. It stubbornly clings on to very high prices:

And despite total traffic through models of between 500 and 600 people weekly, Toll Bros., a luxury builder that also hasn't marketed any discounts, had zero net sales in the week ended Nov. 11 and a negative net-sales rate of two homes in the week ended Oct. 14.

That means the company, whose homes are priced from $345,975 to more than $1 million, had two more cancellations in Las Vegas that it had sales.

Toll officials declined to discuss local sales volume, noting that they release regional data only quarterly. Spokeswoman Kira McCarron said sales of new homes and standing inventory "are consistent with current marketing conditions." (Las Vegas Review - Journal 11/25/07)

These Toll Brother fools out in Las Vegas better get the widely circulated memo that deep price reductions in price are necessary to move new housing units.

HapppyThanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving! :-)

Lereah's Book in 2005

Google Trends: "Foreclosure" in California

Graph of the number of times the word "foreclosure" was googled from California over the last year. As one can tell it has about doubled in the past year.

California Prices Fall Significantly Year Over Year

"California home prices fell 12.7% in September from the year before, the nation’s biggest year-over-year price drop that month, according to the First American LoanPerformance Home Price Index released today. The index tracks more than 30 years of repeat sales transactions."

"Prices in the Los Angeles-Orange County metro area fell by 8.1% in September, sixth highest among the top 30 metro areas, the company reported. It was the eighth straight month that prices here have shown a year-over-year decline. The Inland Empire led the nation’s top 30 metro areas in price declines. Prices there fell 13.6% from September 2006.

"Seventeen states had price declines, LoanPerformance reported. Nevada had the nation’s second-highest price decline, with home prices falling 9.3%, followed by Florida (-8.2%) and Arizona (-7.4%). (Lasner on Real Estate Blog 11/19/07)"

BubbleSphere Roundup

• Foreclosure Violence (Sacrameto Landing)
• 188 at The Mortgage Lender Impode-O-Meter
• Housing Crash News (Patrick.net)
• Second City Bubble
  
  

Realtor's Convention in Vegas

2007 Realtor Conference in Las Vegas Website

Yun Loses His Marbles in Vegas (Housing Doom)

Oh, Yun is blaming the media "The media, meanwhile, played up problems in the market, Yun said. "They have a natural bias of wanting to sensationalize all the news items."

"And, while many markets remained healthy, he said: 'The local media, many are just very lazy. They just copy the national stories and put them in their local papers.' "

Lawrence Yun Invterview

Washington - Baltimore , RE Sales Numbers. October 2007

The new monthly numbers for October 2007 are out from the MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems) the multiple listing service for the area. YoY = Year over Year, that is the comparison between October 2007 and October 2006. These numbers include all housing units ( not just single family residences but also condos and co-ops).

The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.

Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))

• Median Price: $435K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -5.2%
• Average Sales Price YoY: -7%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -25%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 7%
• Active Listings YoY: 0%

Baltimore City Area (Anne Arundel, Baltimore City/County, Carroll, Harford, Howard (BALT AREA) )

• Median Price: $265k
• Median Sales Price YoY: 0%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 2.8%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -32%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 47%
• Active Listings YoY: 17%

Washington, DC (just the District of Columbia, no suburbs)

• Median Price: $393k
• Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 5.6%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -2.5%
• Average Days on Market YoY: -4.6%
• Active Listings YoY: 0%
  

Prince George's County, MD

• Median Price: $302K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -10%
• Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -55%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 82%
• Active Listings YoY: 59%
  

Montgomery County, MD

• Median Price: $415K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -4%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 2.1%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -36%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 27%
• Active Listings YoY: 15%
  

Loudoun County, VA

• Median Price: $414K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
• Average Sales Price YoY:-1.3%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -18%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 5%
• Active Listings YoY: -1%

Arlington County, VA

• Median Price: $487K
• Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 7%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -12%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 52%
• Active Listings YoY: -13%

Frederick County, MD

• Median Price: $287K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -13%
• Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
• Total Units Sold YoY: - 34%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 40%
• Active Listings YoY: 15%

Fairfax County, VA

• Median Price: $425K
• Median Sales Price YoY: -7.6%
• Average Sales Price YoY:-2.9%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 12%
• Active Listings YoY: 4%

For more numbers on jurisdictions not mentioned here please go to MRIS Market Statistics.

These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in October compared to October 2006.

The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Far out suburbs and condos are especially vulnerable to large price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality.

Lawrence Yun Promoted to Chief Economist

Lawrence Yun was promoted to chief economist (aka spinner) for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). [picture from NAR]

In a press release from NAR:

The National Association of Realtors® today named Lawrence Yun chief economist and senior vice president of research. Yun has served at NAR since 2000, most recently as vice president and senior economist.

“Lawrence is a talented economist and an outstanding forecaster who has contributed greatly to NAR’s growth and prestige as the leading advocate for the housing industry,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “We are proud to have a man of Lawrence’s integrity and honor.

“He is a no-nonsense and level-headed analyst of the housing market who calls the data as he sees it, and has guided NAR with skill as chief spokesman for the past several months in a competitive real estate market. We have great faith and trust that Lawrence’s tenure will be a stellar one that will enhance NAR’s reputation as the most reliable and credible source of real estate research.”

Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster;' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 he predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. " As we know priced have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction.

Do not trust Mr. Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility. (from Lawrence Yun Watch)

Bubble Sphere Roundup

• Foreclosure wave sweeps America (BBC News)
• New Low for Dollar Against Euro (AP News) Seems to be happening a lot lately?
• FLASH FLASH FLASH: Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt (HousingPanic)
• Long and Foster Getting Desperate? (Baltimore Housing Bubble)
  
  

How Low Can They Go?

Fellow Housing Bloggers,

This months edition of Fortune Magazine (November 12, 2007) had a great article on housing called How Low Can They Go? by Shawn Tully (no online link available yet). It combined extensive analysis of 54 metro housing markets with the combined work of Moody's Economy.com, Fortune Analysts, PPR, & NAR. The basis of the article was to provide a snapshot of what the future of housing will look like in 5 years from June 2007. They determined a correction value (sometimes positive) by comparing present day price to rent ratios with the average of the past 15 years. Based on the data from the article I created a correction calculator and analysis for all 54 metro areas. For more background on the article check out this post on it until the actual article become public on Fortune's Website or you can just go buy the current edition of the magazine. I've attached the file and also here is a link for a hosted file. I'm sure this will be of some use to you.

Best Regards and Happy Blogging,

Kevin
Baltimore Housing Bubble

Back to Comment Moderation

Due to some abusive comments this blog will return to comment moderation. Blog Rules: In order to create a more perfect blog, these are the rules that will be followed. Additional rules may be added as necessary.

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Mica Lowers Price This Weekend

Bubble Meter on Mica

Please note: on 11/09/06 someone bought a 1br unit (#503) on the very same floor with the same square footage for $327,900. So this offer is 15% below the price paid in December 2006. Or inflation adjusted about 16.5% below. Yes, condo prices are falling significantly in the Washington, DC area, even within the beltway.

For home buyers: It pays to wait! Big time!