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Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.
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The Bubble Meter Philosophy
The best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand. Home sellers might not like it, but it's good for buyers and it's great for Realtors.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
For Realtors, the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly, and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price.
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Bubble Meter Archive
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2007
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April
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- David Lereah To Leave Realtors and Join Move Inc.
- Bubble Sphere Roundup
- The Housing Bear Growls and Gets Heard
- March Existing Home Sales Down; Realtors Falsely B...
- Main Realtor Blog Is Inactive
- More Homeowners Upside Down
- For Sale Signs in Dupont Circle
- Excerpt from Lereah's Book March 2005
- Rowhouse in Washington, DC
- NAR Advocates Affordable Housing... HaHa!
- Buyer Won't Settle at Crescent Condo In Downtown S...
- Bubble Sphere Roundup
- David Lereah's New Book is Released
- Inventory in Northern Virginia Increasing
- Subprime Mortgage Meltdown
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April
(15)
The Wall Street Journal reports:
ReplyDelete"The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major U.S. metropolitan areas at the end of March increased 6.5% from a month earlier, according to data compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate brokerage firm in Emeryville, Calif." ...
"Over the past 22 years, home inventories nationwide have increased an average of 1.7% in March from February, according to Credit Suisse Group."...
"ZipRealty recorded the biggest increases in the metro areas of Los Angeles (12.8%), San Francisco (12.2%) and Washington, D.C. (9.4%)."...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117572356987360133.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
2006 showed a much bigger increase during this same time period.
ReplyDeleteMarch 3, 2006 - 12305
April 3, 2006 - 15056
In fact, total inventory on April 3, 2007, was lower than total inventory on April 3, 2006.
Come on Lance, let's here the rationalization!!!!!
ReplyDeletehahahahahahahahaha
David - how many times have we heard from you and your buddies here that month to month fluctuations in ivnentory are meaningless? Is that only true when it supports your preferred conclusion?
ReplyDeleteInventory is level year over year. Blog over.
Numbers are increasing due to shitty places like manassas, prince william county and loudon available home increases. Traditionally better areas such as fairfax county, fairfax, arlington, alexandria city are actually on a bit of a dip.
ReplyDeleteWhatever is going on, people, let the market work it out. That's the beauty of an open market.
ReplyDeleteNot that its truly an open market. Watch the Governemnt work some bailout deal for fools, since our whole economy is now built upon relentless suburban crudscape expansion.
Isnt it insane... all the efforts by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and everyone else to make people into "homewoneres" did nothing but inflate prices all over.
Inflating prices of residential real estate does not equate to the creation of wealth.
Buying a dumpy place and making it liveable by a family does represent the creation of wealth, but the simple transactions of buying and selling are not wealth-generating, really.
Ever notice that the ratty places are still ratty, but just cost more? The nice places are still nice, but just cost more?
I've posted a copy of that article on my blog...
ReplyDeletehttp://financeguru-eternitus.blogspot.com/
For a monthly change - 6.5% is enormous... especially since inventories are already high relative to home sales.
But the best stat, and most telling, is that inventories are up 35% from a year earlier nationwide. That's pretty darn huge.
I think the train wreck is starting... weather we hear a loud pop or an extended hiss as the bubble deflates, its starting to happen right now.
In two years, I'm going to invite all of you (lance included) to my 4 bedroom single house that I just purchased for $225,000 in suburban Philadelphia, with $40,000 down that I saved from renting in the meantime. The occasion: VICTORY!
"Inventory is level year over year. Blog over. "
ReplyDeleteSupply is about the same. Demand has fallen due to the subprime mortgage meltdown and less investor demand among other reasons.
Unfortunately, I agree with the usual crowd of useful idiots that the more meaningful number is the YoY. Historical graphs would allow us to see whether or not the 13.4% jump is typical for this time of year.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have insight on effects or lag time of SoMD over NoVa?
Also, I noticed yesterday that out of the 262 "foreclosures" listed on Foreclosure comdot that ~25 were foreclosures and the rest were bankruptcies.
Question how will the new BK laws passed last year effect the current HO's that are filing or soon to file?
Anyone? Anyone?
Anon said:
ReplyDeleteNumbers are increasing due to shitty places like manassas, prince william county and loudon available home increases. Traditionally better areas such as fairfax county, fairfax, arlington, alexandria city are actually on a bit of a dip.
Check out this blog for accuracy:
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/
or novabbubblefallout in case the link doesnt make it thru
BTW does anyone know of anyone covering charles county MD in a blog or have knowledge here? Not so much worried about waldorf since it's now considered Fort Washington-south..
ReplyDeleteDavid said "Demand has fallen"
ReplyDeleteIt has. I did the calcs in mid march that while Total inventory YoY is pretty much flat. the months of supply has increased by something like 5% or so.
Now something I completely don't get is people RAISING their prices now. From ziprealty, you have houses sitting for 200+ days with multiple reductions of price and no bids, so now they raise the price and hope the spring will help them sell their place.
And some places are raising it by 10%. I thought I might go and look at a place listed for what was still to high, but maybe negotiable down. I looked a day later and they has raised the price by 10%. Wiskey Tango Foxtrot. Sorry I'm insulted as a buyer with someone like that (ala lance's insulted seller).
Are sheeple just that dumb or that greedy? Who would be dumb enough to buy a place now that was just listed higher, when you on avg. you can buy a place for 93% of listing. And are people too darn greedy. "Let's see, I bought the place in 02, I'm still making a killing, but I want that extra 20k, even though it's been sitting for a 6+ months, oh I know, I know I'll RAISE the price, that will get people to buy it."
Helo McFly, if you couldn't sell it at a lower price, you're not going to sell it for a higher price. Supply is roughly flat, demand falling and you want MORE! If you do, hats off, and I pitty the poor sucker who bought from you.
Yep, demand has significantly reduced since last year.
ReplyDeleteNothing left to do but watch the prices fall.
BLOG ON, not over
ReplyDeleteDavid said...
ReplyDelete"Supply is about the same. Demand has fallen due to the subprime mortgage meltdown and less investor demand among other reasons."
If demand keeps falling, the inventory/supply will keep going up. If the monthly YoY inventory/supply remains the same for quite a few months, that means the there is kind of balance between demand and supply, and the price will remain flat for a while.
It seems to me the market was bottomed in last summer.
ANON said:
ReplyDelete"Ever notice that the ratty places are still ratty, but just cost more? The nice places are still nice, but just cost more?"
You can't just look at the place itself. In real estate, the biggest variable is location ... not what the shingles on the roof look like, not how many bathrooms the place has, not what materials were used in its construction. It is plain and simply WHERE the property is located and what THAT means to the people living there in terms of access to things they need including jobs.
Shane - I saw this happen recently in my neighborhood. A new in-fill home in Clarendon has been sitting unsold for a few months at an asking price of $1,450,000. Last week they ran an ad in the Post advertising it at $1,425,000, and now this week they relisted in the MLS (to reset the days on market of course) at $1,499,000.
ReplyDeleteSo no action for three months, lower the price for a week, then raise the price even higher than original asking. I just don't get it.
But chances are some dope will step right up and bend over.
"Supply is about the same. Demand has fallen due to the subprime mortgage meltdown and less investor demand among other reasons. "
ReplyDeleteThat's funny, a year ago you said there was no demand. Which is it? Again, you'd be more credible if you'd be consistent. As it is, you're just a cheerleader.
Actually, the bump explanation is simple. Hope springs eternal, and human nature.
ReplyDeleteIn a nutshell, a lot of folks have conned themselves into the idea that "Spring will bounce back". So they took their listing off the market until they could reset days on market, and then bumped the price.
The idea is that you can always lower the price again, but if there is a "spring bounce", you won't leave money on the table.
This is simply a varaint on the same old phenomenon, and why real estate crashes happen in slo-mo. People simply take a long time to accept that they can't get the bubblerific price the Joneses did back in 2005. So you get these games until choice goes out of the equation (being eaten by the aligator, can't delay the job transfer, the kid is coming any day you need the larger place, etc...).
I personally expect that each year until the actual bottom is hit you will see the same pattern. Lots of properties taken off market to rental in fall, a bunch of overpriced units coming online in March-April...price drop in late summerwhen the lack of a "bounce" sinks in to those who have no choice...rinse lather repeat with each year having lower peaks and valleys until a real bottom is hit.
John Fontaine said:
ReplyDelete"But chances are some dope will step right up and bend over."
John, it's not often you and I agree ... But in this case we do. Chances are that there will be buyers at higher prices now that we're past "the bottom". David L. was right, David J. wasn't. We've bottomed out and prices are on the move up. This makes no difference to us homeowners who already locked in ... But all those BHs who held off waiting for magically drastically lower prices? They're screwed ...
When I started tracking prices in 2004, there were less then 20 SFH's less than 500K in the better parts of howard county, MD. Now, there are more than 250!
ReplyDeleteSeveral of the SFH's on my short list have dropped $50K over the last year. It's tempting, but I'm in no hurry. Human nature will continue to put downward pressure on prices (fear trumps greed).
Maybe next time realtwhores and all the other greedy basturds that set this up will use a bit of common sense. They've really pissed where they sleep. Even dogs know better.
lance said . . .
ReplyDelete"You can't just look at the place itself"
Oh brother, here he goes again. Okay lance, so do you look at RE as an investment or as an expense. If you look at it as an expense, then you pretty much look at what you are buying compared to what you can rent for . . . i.e. you aren't looking at future gains.
If you are an "investor" (gambler) you look at the location, blah, blah, blah. If you are looking at it as an expense tie it to the local rents in a rent vs. buy.
Lance talking out of both sides of his mouth . . . . again.
If you are planning to buy a home. Visit http://www.housemath.us for a thorough financial analysis of your investment. It helps you calculate the taxes, rent costs, buying and selling costs, to calculate the future value of a series of payments and lots of other things related to buying a home.
ReplyDeleteIts worth a try. http://www.housemath.us
This debate about whether inventory is a little higher or lower than the same time last year is fun, but must be kept in the context that in both 2006 and 2007, inventory is more than double what it was in 2005.
ReplyDeleteI think there is also a pool of shadow inventory, of people who are trying to rent their house but would rather sell.
It is interesting to see things happen exactly the way that this blog and Ben Jones' blog said they would. Condos and the outer areas are going first (Manassas, Loudoun, etc.) Sellers are desperately holding on. And mortgage lenders are declaring bankruptcy.
My amateur prediction is another 6-10% fall in prices this year, followed by a similar decrease in 2008, flatness in 2009 and 2010, and the real killer falls in 2011 and 2012. But I could be wrong.
A Redskins fan
I dont know much about bubbles or supply and demand. The only thing I understand is that a house I was thinking about buying last year is on the market now for $80K less than it was when I first saw it.
ReplyDeleteSure glad I didnt destroy myself buying a home. Hopefully, I will check back in 6 to 8 months again and see it still on the market.
"Inventory is level year over year. Blog over."
ReplyDeleteI think that's right -- so let's look at it. I don 't have the WSJ stats -- but I do have the MRIS numbers
http://tinyurl.com/2tmphl
Here I'll look at DC-only numbers (b/c I've been tracking them & they are convenient). If you want more comparable NoVa numbers -- do it yourself.
Active Listing
Dec 05 - 2036
Jan 06 - 2183
Feb 06 - 2314
Mar 06 - 2762
Dec 06 - 2781
Jan 07 - 2622
Feb 07 - 2512
Mar 07 - not published
SO the YOY Pct change is
Dec 36%
Jan 20%
Feb 8%
While the YOY change is increasing at a decreasing rate (first derivative positive, second negaive for the calculus fans), the YOY inventory change (first derivative) is still growing quite fast. 36% YOY inventory numbers are tremendous. Eight percent changes are just really big.
Someone like Lereah would be sure to point out that inventory is decreasing in 2007. However, until you offer any evidence of why this is true -- and not just speculation -- this is no cause for celebration.
For instance, if sellers are pulling their house off the market to wait for the spring season -- and this is reflected in the inventory declines -- this is no reason for celebration by the bulls. However, if inventory declines because first-time home buyers are buying homes then that would signal good news for the bulls. I offer no evidence -- only ideas for further research.
I would definitely argue that comparing March (07) figures to Feb (07) is a fairly fruitless exercise.
sc in dc
First day seeing this blog
ReplyDeleteLance is true comic relief - thanks! we all need a court jester.
I am looking forward to moving back to the DC area in 2009, when I can buy a nice home at 1999 prices
I still say it is going to take a while for the market to work itself out. That being said, I got an email today from a real estate agent showing the recent price drops in North Arlington. Usually this email has one or two price drops. But look at the one from today:
ReplyDeletemls#:AR6310953
new:$795,000 original:$850,000
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 2819 LORCOM LANE, ARLINGTON, VA 22207
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6310953
mls#:AR6314775
new:$925,000 original:$935,000
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 538 OAKLAND ST N, ARLINGTON, VA 22203
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6314775
mls#:AR6333912
new:$729,900 original:$750,000
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 1706 GLEBE RD, ARLINGTON, VA 22207
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6333912
mls#:AR6334351
new:$815,000 original:$849,900
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 1812 PATRICK HENRY DR N, ARLINGTON, VA 22205
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6334351
mls#:AR6347061
new:$724,900 original:$749,900
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 3215 1ST RD N, ARLINGTON, VA 22201
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6347061
mls#:AR6348086
new:$899,900 original:$939,900
sf:0 status:Active
addr: 1634 GEORGE MASON DR, ARLINGTON, VA 22205
http://kbsellsva.com/ld?eq=1087127871-1105938037-MRIS-AR6348086
Could this be a sign that the seller panic is on? Are sellers finally realizing that buyers don't want to pay 3/4 of a million for a piece of crap?
"Are sellers finally realizing that buyers don't want to pay 3/4 of a million for a piece of crap? "
ReplyDeleteRemember, according to lance there are no "pieces of crap," just tiny old houses in neighborhoods that have not yet turned into Georgetown.
Your best bet is to mortgage yourself up to your eyeballs to buy a house that doesn't suit your needs in a neighborhood you don't want to live in and just count on the fact that all "transitional" neighborhoods eventually "transition" into high rent districts.
...
Remember, housing is an expense, not an investment!
If you don't own a house you have inferior abilities, even if renting is a better financial decision.
Homeowners are better people, it doesn't matter if they have zero or negative equity.
Above ALL ELSE, remember that lance is "rich" because a bank let him borrow three quarters of a million dollars on an interest only loan at the height of the bubble.
Lance said . . ."We've bottomed out and prices are on the move up. This makes no difference to us homeowners who already locked in ... But all those BHs who held off waiting for magically drastically lower prices? They're screwed ..."
ReplyDeleteOh my gosh, the horror, the hoooorrroooorrr. I'll be PRICED OUT FOREVER, and EVER, and EVER (dun, dun, dun . . . music please).
Lance if you truly believe that you are very tarado. We going back to 15-20% YOY increases . . . I might as well shoot myself now. Lance, the crap that comes out of your mouth is truly amazing.
Housing is inextricably tied to INCOMES. Now if you show me data which tells me that incomes have been increasing at a 10-15% rate, then we might be able to talk. Otherwise the price increases are due to 2 things . . . loose credit and speculation.
Loose credit is going away b/c the lenders are going belly up b/c people (lots of them speculators) can't sell for 10-15% profit YOY. The can't sell at a 10-15% profit b/c peoples incomes haven't been increasing at that rate. When they can't sell at a 15% profit the carrying costs come home to roost. Tack on ARM resets and you have a mess.
So NO lance, we can't be priced out forever (i.e. screwed). 1 of 3 things will happen. 1) Prices come down so people can live in a place they buy. 2) Prices stagnate and wages rise to meet the costs. or 3) People LEAVE. In the past week , I have talked to at least 3 co-workers who said if prices don't come down will move somewhere else. Why live here when I can move to Atlanta, take a 10% paycut and afford a really decent house at half the price?
Lancemcd said...
ReplyDelete“BTW does anyone know of anyone covering charles county MD in a blog or have knowledge here? .”
Check out The Bay Net forums. Not the Real estate section mind you.
shane said...
ReplyDelete“Now something I completely don't get is people RAISING their prices now. From ziprealty, you have houses sitting for 200+ days with multiple reductions of price and no bids, so now they raise the price and hope the spring will help them sell their place.
And some places are raising it by 10%. I thought I might go and look at a place listed for what was still to high, but maybe negotiable down. I looked a day later and they has raised the price by 10%. Wiskey Tango Foxtrot. Sorry I'm insulted as a buyer with someone like that (ala lance's insulted seller).”
Yep, WTF over. Common tactic to change the DOM, which skews the MRIS numbers even more. Also, they count on the Lances of the world walking up and paying asking price with absolutely no research. Funny how they’ll haggle over a car, but not one finger is lifted to find real DOM or if the seller has an ARM. And of course, this info is not generously acknowledged by a buyer’s agent. Also, just as John mentioned, “Hope springs eternal.”
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“John, it's not often you and I agree ... But in this case we do. Chances are that there will be buyers at higher prices now that we're past "the bottom". David L. was right, David J. wasn't. We've bottomed out and prices are on the move up. This makes no difference to us homeowners who already locked in ... But all those BHs who held off waiting for magically drastically lower prices? They're screwed ...”
Did we reach the bottom……….again? How many bottoms are gonna have “Lance”? Of course, we’re waiting for your data on the “prices are on the move up”. Please post.
We’re still waiting on the, what was it, the average row house that saw a YOY increase of $1Mil you spoke of a few days back? Please post.
It is a fact that housing prices, in both real and nominal terms, are lower than one year ago in most of the DC area (see housingtracker).
ReplyDeleteBubbleheads who have rented for the past year are already better off than they were a year ago.
A Redskins fan
Anon said:
ReplyDelete"Why live here when I can move to Atlanta, take a 10% paycut and afford a really decent house at half the price?"
Ah, you're finally getting it. The higher than average prices we've experienced here help separate the wheat from the shaft. As the weak (i.e., those who can't learn to deal with change) leave, the area itself gets stronger. Good bye! Don't let the door of your rental slam you in the ass on your way out!
For once, I agree with Lance. I wish this area were more like it was when I was a kid in the 70s and 80s, back when saying you rooted for anyone other than the Skins, Caps, Bullets, Orioles, or Terps was an invitation for a knuckle-induced tooth removal, when people were proud to be from around here, and when this area wasn't flooded with pansy yuppies from everywhere else.
ReplyDeleteEven if it did go back to that way, though, it still doesn't mean houses are worth what people are currently asking. But it would be a nicer place to rent.
A Redskins fan
As the weak (i.e., those who can't learn to deal with change) leave, the area itself gets stronger.
ReplyDeleteHi Lance, this is what you said sometime back : "Do you think the first European immigrants to the Americas came because they were attracted by the wilderness and the natives already here? No, they left because they'd been effectively "priced out" of their European homelands."
Are you saying now that the US is filled with weaklings?
Then when you were confronted with your argument you said this : "Again, I never said ALL people moved here because of cheap land prices. What I said, again, is that high real estate prices in high growth successful areas serve a good purpose. The incentivize some of the best elements in society to move to lower cost areas and help grow those areas."
So is it a good thing or is it showing weakness? Are these he "best elements" or the "weak elements"? I am terribly confused. Can you please clarify?
Lance said "Ah, you're finally getting it. The higher than average prices we've experienced here help separate the wheat from the shaft. As the weak (i.e., those who can't learn to deal with change) leave, the area itself gets stronger. Good bye! Don't let the door of your rental slam you in the ass on your way out!"
ReplyDeleteLance again showing his true colors as an elitist punk.
There is no need to respond further b/c any outside person can easily see lance for who he really is.
Lance again showing his true colors as an elitist punk.
ReplyDeleteElitist? More like clueless.
There is no need to respond further b/c any outside person can easily see lance for who he really is.
Yes we have long known what he really is. An attention starved homeowner who is dreading the decline in his dumb investment financed using an I/O ARM loan.
"Ah, you're finally getting it. The higher than average prices we've experienced here help separate the wheat from the shaft. As the weak (i.e., those who can't learn to deal with change) leave, the area itself gets stronger."
ReplyDeleteWow, I wish I had the "strength" to borrow three quarters of a million dollars on an interest only loan to buy a rowhouse at the top of the biggest housing bubble in decades...
I've got news for you lance... you are nothing special and I sure as hell don't envy you. You are a mid-life computer technician who can't tell the difference between wealth and debt. Do you think you are rich because of your giant loan? Do you think you are powerful because you need renters in your basement to make ends meet? Do you think you are some kind of elite?
You are the illusion of the American Dream. The people on this blog want to own what they buy. You are just interested in pretending you have money on your way to your 21st century blue collar job every morning.
""Do you think the first European immigrants to the Americas came because they were attracted by the wilderness and the natives already here? No, they left because they'd been effectively "priced out" of their European homelands." "
ReplyDeleteWhat is funny is that after he got stomped into the mud on that argument he never could bring himself to admit that he was compeltely and utterly wrong in that statement... just like how he has never gotten around to admitting that he was lying about touring "average rowhouses" that had appreciated from $1 million to $2 million in the last 12 months...
You are a mid-life computer technician
ReplyDeleteThat is an insult to all computer technicians. By looking at Lance's lame arguments, you can only come to the conclusion that there is nothing technical about his profession. He hasn't posted one technical or analytical argument to date.
Lance said: "The higher than average prices we've experienced here help separate the wheat from the shaft."
ReplyDeleteThe phrase is "separate the wheat from the chaff." Go look it up.
He means the wheat, as in the flippers, blowing in the wind and ready to be scythed down by emotionless, unstoppable, industrial harvesters, and the shaft, as in the renters who will then move in and make lowball offers after the wheat has been mowed down and lies dead in the field.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan
Lance has indeed not done a good job at expressing himself. However, I think he is correct (if only by luck) that owning, for the longer investing folks, is the better option now.
ReplyDeleteIf you chart the price of homes over the past 8-10 years and find the trend line, you get roughly a 6-7% growth per year on average. I know there was a huge surge in 04 and 05 but I considered these outliers and projected through them, from the previous 6-8 years.
What I found was, in about 2009 I should be able to get out of the house I purchased in February 07 what homes of the same type were going for in late 05 early 06. I will hopefully sell the house in 2010, move back to the mid-west and buy a house with cash and use what otherwise would be my home payment as money invested towards retirement, visiting the east coast from time to time while on vacation.
I have owned several homes and every time they have been a great investment. With upkeeps and small improvements I have been afforded the opportunity to live in my investments at a very discounted rent rate and in a couple of cases, rent free.
This is a simple mans concept and NO, I am NOT a real estate agent (those professions are only slightly higher than that of an attorney; on the scum scale)...I am a mechanical engineer and proud of it. At any rate, if your looking to invest in a house, certainly don’t rush but find an individual who is needing to sale (not trying to retire off of you, like I hope to do some day) and strike a deal. There are not shortages of home owners ready to work with you. I found one and got a great deal – it is indeed a good time to buy.
Respectfully,
Happy - Fairfax, VA homeowner.
He means the wheat, as in the flippers, blowing in the wind and ready to be scythed down by emotionless, unstoppable, industrial harvesters, and the shaft, as in the renters who will then move in and make lowball offers after the wheat has been mowed down and lies dead in the field.
ReplyDeleteA Redskins fan