Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Is It Time to Buy More?

Is it time to buy more? How is consumer spending holding up this Christmas season? Will people tap their remaining housing unit ATMs to buy more cr*p?


  1. What is that photo of? a random 99 cent store?

    just curious...

  2. Did you hear today that the NAR gave the "All Clear". We've hit bottom and home prices will be up 5% in 2008!

    Glad that's over.

    Lance was right after all.

  3. It is a picture of a cheap outlet store in Anne Arundel Mills Mall in Maryland.

  4. What how dare you try to slow down our economy???!!!

    Remember after 911, when President Bush asked us to show our patriotism and to join the fight against terrorism by hitting the malls and shopping till your wallet runs dry.

    Your anti-American, free-thinking slogans are not appreciated!

  5. "The Fed's action attempts to deal with a difficult problem confronting the world's central banks: Financial institutions globally are so worried about losses from U.S. mortgage securities and other exotic investments that they are hoarding cash, unwilling to lend it to each other except at unusually high premiums."


    Like I said a while back. The idea of a Bubble --- once made mainstream by the mainstream media --- has its own temporary effects on the markets. The problem isn't that there isn't money out there to lend ... There is plenty of money out there to be lent ... Just that a bursting bubble becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy ... At least for a while. When all is said and done though, people will get over their unsubstantiated fears and lend again. But of course, they may not lend again without real good safeguards such as that proposed 30% down and a long credit history. Who knows, they may require one to already be an existing homeowner before they will lend you money for a new home? Sweet irony, isn't it ... ?

  6. Does anybody listen to NAR? I think people with average intelligence stop listening to these people.

  7. America in the new millennium:

    Narcissism rules
    Gluttony abounds
    Credit kills...

  8. A real housing economists views:

    Start a new thread with this.

    Center for Economic and Policy Research


    It it the "Housing Bubble Starts to Burst" video link of June 7th.


    CEPR's Baker also quoted in CNNMoney story:

  9. Lance you are so ignorant it kills me...

    "Who knows, they may require one to already be an existing homeowner before they will lend you money for a new home? Sweet irony, isn't it ... ?"

    Once again you try to claim that homeowners are somehow kings and ther rest of us are serfs!!! Cash is king and I could drop a 300k downpayment on any house I like. I think a bank would give me a loan before they would give some idiot who took an IO loan on a 900k row house in dupont that is now worth less then 850 and dropping(aka you). Did you realize that you cant even refi your loan? How are you preparing for that day when your payment more then doubles? By the way, wage growth is falt, prices are up the most in 34 years. Oh, and the rumor is that DC prop taxes are going to go up drastically to offset the lost revenue due to foreclosures and decreasing home prices. Hope you have a good xmas, it may be the last "good" one you have... dope..

  10. What are you doing at Arundel Mills?

    Why aren't you looking for DC rowhouses -- I thought that is what you wanted? I put an offer on one in Cap Hill (bank-owned). 1600 square feet above grade, C/A, parking, historic district, 1.5 baths, and 3 bedrooms -- 8 blocks from the Capitol, 6 to Union Station, 6 to Eastern Market metro. Primo location.

    Went for listing to fulfill bank's outstanding loan -- $450K. Did you make an offer? No, you were out taking pictures at the mall.

    There is one on Kentucky Avenue that has my interest as well.

    Roll the dice next weekend, will you.

  11. "But of course, they may not lend again without real good safeguards such as that proposed 30% down and a long credit history."
    Well good if the lenders have done that (20% down with good credit history) in the first place we wouldn't have this huge run up of housing prices.

    "Who knows, they may require one to already be an existing homeowner before they will lend you money for a new home?"
    Yeah right with the recent huge price run-ups they're gonna lend to people who already burdened by the huge mortgages.

  12. Lance's latest...

    "Who knows, they may require one to already be an existing homeowner before they will lend you money for a new home? Sweet irony, isn't it ... ?"

    With so many with bad credit behind them (Bankruptcy, foreclosures, short sales, etc.) the only ones left Worth lending to will be those who can afford the mortgage, have cash reserves and can put down 20%.
    The banks are not going to sit on foreclosed houses forever, tearing down foreclosed properties costs money, money the bank would rather have flowing into its balance sheet, not flowing out as an expense, nor are the banks going to turn away the TRUE prime borrowers, those who can afford the loans, prior homeowners or not.

    There was an old saying,
    "you can get a loan just as long as you can prove to the borrower that you don't need to borrow"

    This WAS the standard for buying a house long before the housing/lending market went haywire.
    A return to sane lending practices is not going to keep future house buyers from getting loans Provided they are creditworthy.
    The day that the term 'subprime mortgage' is treated as 'the new economy', that will be the day that housing will get back to normal.

  13. Lance will get into the new goverment mortgage program. Then He will tell us how we pay him in taxes to be a home owner. He will be a king and we pay our serf taxes. But in fact he will be on the new welfare program, extending his payments to 40 years.

  14. Hey Guys! Could someone advice on how to go about buying a foreclosure? Do I need a broker who knows the process and can find them -- cause some forclosure listings don't mention it. Where to look for free foreclosure listings on line. I don't want to pay $39.99 for some service. Thanking you in advance.

  15. Lance,

    Sure bubbles are temporary, busts are temporary. Wait long enough and everything averages out. Trouble is, people have to live day to day.

    The liquidity crisis happened because no one knows how to value these insane loan portfolios the banks and others are holding. These loans are backed by real estate, and real estate has a long way to go before it bottoms. The days of blind idealism are over for a while.

    So the banks need outside cash to meet their reserves or face dire consequences including fines and liquidation.

    Supposedly these big banks are run by professionals -- couldn't they see this coming?

    Oh well, this will shake out and repeat itself.

    But Lance and David Lereah should stow the pom-poms for a while. This is going to take a while.

    Last time things were flat for nearly a decade after the bottom. We haven't seen the bottom yet.

  16. to anon looking to buy forecloures -- While there are some exceptions, the foreclosure process has not been very fruitful for me. Banks are not letting the properties go for next to nothing -- understandably, they want their money. So the banks have been buying the properties at foreclosure and then listing them in MRIS. After the property sits for awhile, the price comes down, and then there are some deals to be had -- so long as you don't mind waiting through the bank's slow moving and rigid process. Maybe the banks will start accepting a lot less?? -- but with foreclosures, my feeling is that someone already wasn't ale to make it work at X price --> makes me scared that I wouldn't either. You can't go inside foreclosures beforehand, so it takes a pretty big leap of faith. Note: I am a real estate attorney and licensed broker. Flame away everyone.