Sales in Silver Spring, MD

Housing Unit Sales in Silver Spring, MD

Foreclosures Rose In March

The number of foreclosure in the US rose In March. The foreclosure rate continues to remain very high. There is a fresh wave of mortgages that are resetting during this year. The foreclosure rate is likely to continue to increase as the year progress, especially in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

The number of U.S. homes receiving at least one foreclosure filing jumped 57 percent in March to 234,685, compared with 149,150 properties a year earlier. Filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

The overall foreclosure rate is 5 percent higher than in February, which saw an unexpected month-to-month decline over January. March marked the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year increases in national foreclosure filings.

Nevada clocked in the worst foreclosure rate for the 15th straight month. Last month, one in every 139 households received a foreclosure-related notice, nearly four times the national rate.

In Florida, 30,254 homes reported at least one filing, down nearly 7 percent from February, but up 112 percent from the year before.

Rounding out the states with the highest foreclosure rates were Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts and Maryland.

The situation is so bad in Nevada that "one in every 139 households received a foreclosure-related notice, nearly four times the national rate." If March is an average month for foreclosures compared with other months. Then in a year period one would expect about 1 in 12 home in Nevada to receive a foreclosure related notice. That statistic is shocking.

In many bubble markets, foreclosures are already making a significant contribution to dragging prices lower. From Southern California "More than one out of three Southland homes that resold last month, nearly 38 percent, had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior year. (DQ News)"

Locally, in the DC area, foreclosures are widespread in many of the middle to outer suburbs. These places include, but are not limited to, Manassas, Woodbridge, Waldorf, Sterling, Laurel. These foreclosures are contributing to the downward trend in prices for housing units in these areas. In Washington, DC proper and many inner suburbs foreclosures have been rare.

MRIS Numbers for March 2008 in Baltimore DC Area

The new monthly numbers for March2008 are out from the MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems) the multiple listing service for the area. YoY = Year over Year, that is the comparison between March 2008 and March 2007. These numbers include all housing units ( not just single family residences but also condos and co-ops). These are for housing units listed on the MRIS's MLS (and thus do not include some foreclosures or private sales, or many new home sales).

The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.

Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))

* Median Price: $401K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -12.8%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -10.6%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -29%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 8%
* Active Listings YoY: 25%
* Months Supply: 8.1

Baltimore City Area (Anne Arundel, Baltimore City/County, Carroll, Harford, Howard (BALT AREA) )

* Median Price: $260k
* Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -2.9%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -34%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 43%
* Active Listings YoY: 20%
* Months Supply: 10.1

Washington, DC (just the District of Columbia, no suburbs)

* Median Price: $400k
* Median Sales Price YoY: -8.1%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -4.7%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -40%
* Average Days on Market YoY: -5%
* Active Listings YoY: 26%
* Months Supply: 8.7

Prince George's County, MD

* Median Price: $286K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -13.5%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -9.5%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -57%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 61%
* Active Listings YoY: 59%
* Months Supply: 21

Montgomery County, MD

* Median Price: $403K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -6.5%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -1.8%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -39%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 14%
* Active Listings YoY: 37%
* Months Supply: 11

Loudoun County, VA

* Median Price: $358K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -19.9%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -20.5%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -20%
* Average Days on Market YoY: -4%
* Active Listings YoY: 1%
* Months Supply: 9.8

Arlington County, VA

* Median Price: $485K
* Median Sales Price YoY: 3.2&
* Average Sales Price YoY: .7%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -32%
* Average Days on Market YoY: -10%
* Active Listings YoY: 15%
* Months Supply: 5.5

Frederick County, MD

* Median Price: $290K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -5.7%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -5.0%
* Total Units Sold YoY: - 38%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 61%
* Active Listings YoY: 16%
* Months Supply: 14


Fairfax County, VA

* Median Price: $395K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -13.3%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -11.9%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 13.5%
* Active Listings YoY: 30%
* Months Supply: 8.6

Howard County, MD

* Median Price: $362K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -6%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -8.2%
* Total Units Sold YoY: -44%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 28%
* Active Listings YoY: 24%
* Months Supply: 10.9

Prince William County, VA

* Median Price: $273K
* Median Sales Price YoY: -30%
* Average Sales Price YoY: -26.7%
* Total Units Sold YoY: 20%
* Average Days on Market YoY: 0%
* Active Listings YoY: 27%
* Months Supply: 11.5

For more numbers on jurisdictions not mentioned here please go to MRIS Market Statistics.

These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed inventory remains elevated and sales remain low.

In Prince William County, VA lower prices are driving higher sales with are up 20% compared to March 2007. Median sales price stood at 273K which is down 30% from last year. The peak median price was 379K in July 2005. For more information on Northern Virginia please see A Decade of A March Sales at Greater Northern VA Housing Bubble Fallout.

The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Prices continue to fall. Although prices are falling slowly in the desirable neighborhoods within the Beltway. Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality. For real estate, this spring's real estate season will not see increasing prices. Housing busts usually last many, many years. Further price declines are coming this year.

BubbleSphere Roundup

Cash For Keys (The Real Estate Bloggers)

The Boom That Wasn't (NYTimes)

NARcasting The Future: April 2008 (Paper Economy). Do you need more evidence that the NAR has a very lousy prediction record over the past 4 years?

Tomorrow, on April 10th, is the March MRIS numbers for the Washington, Baltimore area. Stay tuned. These are important number because almost always March has many more transactions then February.

Lawrence Yun: Nobody Expected Housing Bust

Lawrence Yun is wrong once again, this time he is being a revisionist:

"Even though there was some risk, the ratings agencies fooled the market and the investors into thinking housing was rock solid," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). "It was the speed and the scope of the losses that nobody expected."

Nobody expected? What about all Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker and Robert Shiller and dozens of housing bubble bloggers?

Message to Yun: You have lost your credibility, it is time to resign. Become a whistle blower and tell us what really is going on in the housing market and especially at the NAR.

Realtors' Leaving the NAR at Fast Clip

Source: National Association of Realtors.

Realtors are members of the National Association of Realtors. Not all real estate agents are Realtors, but most real estate agents in the US are Realtors.

The number of Realtors skyrocketed from 2001 to 2006. This corresponds with the housing bubble years.

The number of Realtors peaked in October 2006 when there were 1.37 million Realtors in the United States. Since then their ranks have fallen 11% to 1.23 million. Since the beginning of 2008 the number of Realtors has plummeted 7.6%. Even their discredited leader, Lawrence Yun, wrote "NAR membership figures have finally begun to fall. Whew!!! "

See Also:
Is There a Realtor Bubble? (Sep 2006)
A Realtor Bubble? (Aug 2005)

Lawrence Yun Resigns from the National Association of Realtors

Wow! The day has finally arrived. Lawrence Yun is leaving the National Association of Realtors.

Washington (AP) - Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, announced to day that he plans on leaving the Realtors' association in late May in order to spend more time with his family. Lawrence Yun has worked there for five years. Last year Mr. Yun was promoted to chief economist after David Lereah left. Mr. Yun was a widely quoted expert in the real estate industry.

Dale Stinton, the CEO of the Realtors' association stated that "Mr. Yun has served us well, we will miss him." Others in the real estate industry noted his year of experience as a respected real estate expert.

However, Lawrence Yun has his critics, including David Jackson Jackson who runs the Lawrence Yun Watch. Mr. He said "Lawrence Yun was a paid spinner who has been discredited for his outlandish predictions."

Happy April Fools Day!