Monday, December 08, 2008

Foreclosures Rate Set to Remain Very High

In the past year and a half we have experienced a a very high rate of foreclosures. This high rate of foreclosures will continue for at least another few years.

In a research note titled "Foreclosure Update: over 8 million foreclosures expected" (no link, hat tip Frank) updated last week, Credit Suisse analysts are now forecasting 8.1 million homes will be in foreclosure by the end of 2012, representing 16% of all households with mortgages

The analysts projected this could be as low as 6.3 million in a mild recession, with a somewhat successful loan modification program (re-default rates at around 40%), and as high as 10.2 million in a more severe recession. Via Calculated Risk.

These are reasonable foreclosure estimates by Credit Suisse. The huge job losses (530K in November) that are occurring, will make a very large contribution to the millions of foreclosures that are coming in the next 3 years. Of course, this huge wave of foreclosures and large job losses will put strong downward pressure on home prices.


  1. hello nice blog!Keep it up.It's contain is very informatic and unique.

  2. i use to recieve a lot of economic info from a credit suisse rep, they always seemed to be right on it with forcasts.