Wednesday, May 13, 2009

NAR: Home prices and sales decline again

The median price of a home in the U.S. fell to $169,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

By comparison, the median U.S. household income in 2007 was $50,233. This suggests a price-to-income ratio of about 3.36.
The steep slide in home price accelerated at a record pace during the first three months of 2009, according to an industry report issued Tuesday.

The national median home price of single family homes sold during the first quarter fell 13.8% to $169,000 year over year, and 6.2% compared with the last quarter 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That was the largest year-over-year decline in the 30-year history of the report. ...

Sales volume was weak as well. Homes sold at a 4.59 million annualized rate during the quarter, off 3.2% from the last three months of 2008 and down 6.8% from first quarter 2008. ...

"Where prices are down the sharpest, sales volume is up the most," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "In the post-bubble markets, we've seen more rationality come in." ...

Despite the increased affordability, Larson does not forecast a return to a normal market until the end of 2010. Until then, he said, "Buyers will continue to have the upper hand."
So, after two months of Realtor and news media spin claiming that sales were up, we find that sales for the entire quarter were actually down.


  1. The guys that spin spin spin now say the "normal market" wont start until the end of 2010....

    So that must mean by their track record, its at least 4 to 5 years later. (based on all the bottom calls in the past 4 years by these same people)

  2. The guy saying that we won't return to a normal market until late 2010 is not a Realtor. He is a real estate analyst interviewed by the reporter.

  3. Baltimore still 40%overpriced....

  4. Im confused now. Do you mean real estate analysts havent called bottom several times over the past couple of years? I didnt mean to say it was only realtors.

  5. Some have, some have not. But NAR spinners have consistently been overly optimistic and wildly off the mark. Some real estate analysts are actually honest and smart.

  6. James & David - you realize this blog's 4 year anniversary is coming up in a few days? I dont know it that is a happy or sad occasion....

  7. Four years ago were the days of multiple bids as the buyers fought over the (fat) sellers homes, with the greasy slovenly realtor standing there with a fistful of dollars and a sh!t eating grin.

    I hope for the day when sellers fight it out on the streets, over the single buyer weilding rare pre-approval papers, with the gaunt, sleep deprived realtor in the backround, too moribund to even utter a word...

  8. ^^^^^

    Anyone who is a renter with a down payment does. At least I know I feel the same way. I'm just going to sit and wait for another year or two. Its not like there is a risk that prices will go up, at least not for a very very long time.

  9. I don't even bother to look at the first figures out anymore because the revised figures are always COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.
    An unfortunate hangover from the Bushco years - they really should throw out the whole group compiling these statistics and hire some recent college grads who are'nt politicised yet to get some honesty back in the statistics.

  10. Anonymous said...
    "An unfortunate hangover from the Bushco years - they really should throw out the whole group compiling these statistics and hire some recent college grads"

    The problem with radical lefties is that they blame everything on Bush, even stuff he had no influence over. NAR is not part of the government!