Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Economist Andy Harless asks "What housing bubble?"

It's 2010. Economic events have proven us bubbleheads right. Yet, we still have professional economists arguing there was no housing bubble.


  1. Good housing numbers out today. Housing in double-dip. Prices are heading lower including Arlington.

  2. Wow the doomers obsession with Arlington is palpable! Wasnt it a few days ago that people here were asserting that no one lived in or cared about Arlington?

    Once again, doomers are making the mistake of using a national number and applying it to Arlington. The national number was indeed bad. Months of inventory nationally is up to 12.5 (anything higher than 6 = falling prices). This was the worst number EVER hit on a national scale.

    Unfortunately for the doomers, months of inventory in Arlington rose to a mere 4.4. Unlike nationally, this is no where close to the alltime high. It is however, worst number seen in Arlington since February 2010. Back then, prices were rising "only" 4% YOY.

    Im sure the prospect of 4% annual appreciation has people in "Immunington" quaking in their boots!

  3. Did you know that Arlington is immune to the laws of physics, as well?

  4. Doomspeak... insulated = immune.
    Realityspeak... insulated = insulated.

  5. "dumb dumb speak.... nation tanking = Arlington rebuttal"

    Again - No. Actually the order of operations is

    1. Nation is tanking
    2. Doomer thinks therefore Arlington is tanking
    3. The lack of tankage in Arlington is offered up as rebuttal to point 2, not point 1.

    Just look at the very first comment in this thread. He looks at the national numbers and declares "Prices are heading lower including Arlington." The absolute desperation of some to see Arlington tank is really amazing to behold!

  6. Bernanke likes to remind everyone that he is an expert on the great depression and knows how to prevent it from happening again in the US. Apparently he is also an expert on Japan and its struggle with chronic deflation following its housing bubble in the 1980's. In fact Bernanke wrote an article in 2000 titled "Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis," where he goes on to lecture BOJ officials about what they could and should have done differently in order to to avoid a deflationary outcome. He goes on to postulate that the BOJ was not trying hard enough to stimulate the economy and that 0% interest rates are just one tool to beat deflation. The Fed Chairmen even goes so far as to assert that he knows how to escape a liquidity trap caused by 0% interest rates. The reason I bring this up is because it gives people a good idea of what Bernanke's next move may be. The US is dangerously close to falling into the dreaded "liquidity trap" as deflation takes hold and monetary policy loses its effectiveness.

    Here are some of his suggestions to the BOJ: