Thursday, January 20, 2011

Oh, the spam I receive

Apparently, since I run a housing bubble blog, I want to receive email spam press releases about crappy real estate flipping TV shows:
[Our Crappy Real Estate Flipping TV Show] follows the lives of three of Los Angeles' hottest, young and aggressive real estate magnates in the making as they make a fortune selling multi-million dollar properties in the most exclusive neighborhoods – Hollywood, Malibu and Beverly Hills. With the economy still in a slump, [Hot, Young, Aggressive Real Estate Magnate in the Making 1], [Hot, Young, Aggressive Real Estate Magnate in the Making 2] and [Hot, Young, Aggressive Real Estate Magnate in the Making 3] must fight for their share of the market and the competition is intense. Season [X] follows the agents as they deal with some of the most demanding clients they have ever encountered. They are pushed to the limit and struggle to manage their personal lives while also trying to move some of the most magnificent and most expensive homes in the City of Angels.
The spamming hard working TV network VP even left her contact information in case my readers I want to sign her up for a mailing list contact her about her crappy real estate flipping TV show:
Cynthia Arntzen
VP, FerenComm
380 Lexington Avenue, Suite 517
New York, NY 10168
I really got a kick out of this bit:
If you are the intended recipient of this message, you agree to keep all privileged and/or confidential information private without written consent of the sender, and will use any such information only within the necessary scope of your professional work.
I have agreed to nothing! I haven't even agreed to receive Cynthia Arntzen's spam press releases, but I receive them anyway. I love how corporate folks think an "agreement" is something imposed by one party onto another. It reminds me of how Republicans think "freedom" and "government power" are the same thing. Example: Wikileaks is a threat to freedom.

Actually, the only email address in the spam email's press release's "To:" field was Cynthia Arntzen's (yes, she sent the email to herself), so I'm probably not "the intended recipient" anyway and thus am not commanded have not agreed to keep all privileged and/or confidential information private.


  1. Hmmmm... but what if this was reverse psychology and she actually wanted you to post this spam^H^H^H^H press release? What's the point of a confidential press release anyway?

  2. They need a show about some DC real estate magnates in the making LOLOLOLOLOL

  3. anyone notice that Zillow has been slashing DC home value estimates over the last two months?

  4. DC ranks #7 in the country re: Forbes - where home prices will rise most. The Bethesda MSA ranked #3.

  5. 'I love how corporate folks think an "agreement" is something imposed by one party onto another.'

    Got a big kick out of this. Because wow, it's TRUE! We're confronted with this sort of jargon everywhere from Big Serious Contracts to the back of our cereal boxes, and we so rarely think about what's implied (aka, an intrusion by a corporation into your will/agreement).

  6. OK boys & girls - CS is out so its time to go into the wayyyyy back machine, back to August 2009 to see how NOZ and NONPARTISAN's absurd price predictions are doing.

    Sadly, NOZ has run away for good, unwilling to face the music as prediction after prediction goes BUST. Still, our good friend NONPARTISAN is here. Lets see what he predicted on that fateful day:

    "NONPARTISAN said...sure, Ill give you my predictions:

    Nov '09 - 165
    Nov 2010 - 145
    Nov 2011 - 125
    Nov 2012 - 112 (and new president)
    Nov 2013 - 100

    THEN we can start talking about the bottom.

    W.A.L (watch and learn)

    August 18, 2009 9:11 PM"

    Well Nov 2010 results have come out so lets see how NONPARTISAN is doing so far:

    Nov 09....165..........179.....+8%
    Nov 10....145..........185.....+28%

    Prices being +8% higher than predicted last year must have stung...but MY GOD, LOOK AT HOW WRONG HE IS NOW...PRICES ARE +28% HIGHER THAN PREDICTED!!!

    Such a devastating blow to ones dreams of waiting years and years for the bottom, only to see that it is much much higher than even your wildest dreams could anticipate. So sad. So sad.

    Well cheer up NONPARTISAN, you only have 24 monthly reminders coming up and then the pain will be all over.


  7. Anon - it does my little heart good to know that I have gotten under your skin so!

    Mission Accomplished!

  8. Partisian, how about a forecast from you?

    When will home values return to 2006 levels?

  9. 2006 levels? Not for a loooooong time. 2018-2020 at the absolute earliest. 2024-2030 looks more likely IMO.

  10. Great reading!!!

    Cap and Trade: A License Required for your Home http://www.nachi. org/forum/ f14/cap-and-
    trade-license- required- your-home- 44750/
    HR2454 American Clean Energy & Security Act: http://www.govtrack .us/congress/ bill.xpd? bill=h111- 2454
    Cap & Trade A license required for your home:
    Cap and trade is a license to cheat and steal: http://www.sfexamin columns/oped_ contributors/ Cap-and-trade- is-a-license- to-cheat- and-steal- 45371937.
    Cap and Trade: A License Required for your Home:
    Thinking about selling you House? Look at HR 2454:

  11. If partisan is correct, I might as well let the bank foreclose on my home because I will not wait for 8 to 12 years for my home's value to return to what I bought it for.

  12. "Partisan said...2018-2020 at the absolute earliest. 2024-2030 looks more likely IMO."

    Except in the immunozone. Immunington was down about -10% at the bottom and has rebounded to 0-5% from the peak. New peak is 2011, 2012 at the latest.

  13. Check out 820 north Pollard street, apt. 901 in Arlington - immunington on zillow. That place is down 125k. Will it be valued at its purchase price e of 650k in 2012?

  14. "Anonymous said...
    If partisan is correct, I might as well let the bank foreclose on my home because I will not wait for 8 to 12 years for my home's value to return to what I bought it for."

    Why did you buy at the peak? No offense, but had you been here in 05/06 it was obvious that DC was terribly overvalued and was primed for a nosedive. Were you just not paying attention?

    Also, I sincerely hope my projection of the new peak is news to you. Did you honestly believe home prices were going to soar again? If so, you have bigger problems than simply losing your home.

  15. Mr. Partisan, I don't think you should get personal. First, I bought based on the notion that this area would not suffer from employment issues due to the federal government. Further, I believed population increases would serve as an adequate floor for demand. I had some doubt when I saw people camping out in a line to buy townhomes in Alexandria. Was I foolish to listen to the forecasts of people like Stephen Fuller of George Mason? I guess I was. But I am not the only person who bought a home here that year!

  16. Sorry that I dont have more sympathy. All that stuff you cite is fine and good, but prices going up 20% a year should have been your tip off that something was amiss. I have little patience for you types because I would have been able to buy 5 years earlier were it not for all the crap we saw during the bubble runup.

    Also, my projections for return to 2006 prices are for places like Fairfax & beyond. If you really did buy a townhouse in Alexandria, my projection doesnt really apply to you (unless you really overpaid or were looking in the crappy areas like Westend). Citywide, MRIS shows Alexandria at 417K vs 435K in 2006. At prices only -4% from peak, you will be there in a year or two (unless you really overpaid in which case you could be hosed for a decade).

    So again, you cant really believe my projection of 2024-2030 if you were like the average folk and only down a few tics from the peak can you? Did you significantly overpay? Did you heloc into one of those ultra-exotics that allow you to refi at 125% of value?