Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Case-Shiller national index down 5.1% YoY

This housing chart shows the year-over-year percentage change in the 20-city index, which is down 3.6% since March 2010:

The S&P/Case-Shiller national index is down 5.1% year-over-year:
U.S. home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter, hitting their lowest levels since mid-2002 after falling 3.6% in the fourth quarter, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes.

"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. "The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight," he added. ...

Once federal home-buyer tax credits expired last year, the indexes — based on the three-month averages of home prices — started to fall again in August, increasing fears of a double dip in the home-buying market.

While other parts of the economy have started to show improvement, the housing market continues to sputter as U.S. unemployment remains high and a steady supply of foreclosures weigh on home sales and prices.
And The Wall Street Journal gives us this little reminder:
The National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that existing home sales eased 0.8% in April from March, while prices dropped 5%.
Yep, that's right, "eased," which means journalists are parroting the Realtors' spin verbatim.

And this is for you, Partisan:
Only the Washington, D.C., and Seattle markets saw month-to-month growth of 1.1% and 0.1%, respectively.
Finally, here's how the Case-Shiller results compare to other indexes:
What are other price indexes showing?

The CoreLogic index, which is used by the Federal Reserve, shows that prices in March were down 7.5% in March from one year earlier. When excluding distressed sales, prices were down by 1%. A separate repeat-sales index that excludes foreclosure sales from FNC Inc. shows that prices nationally were down 6.3% in March from one year ago.

Zillow’s national home value index, which excludes foreclosures but not short sales, was down 8.2% in March from one year ago and has declined for 57 consecutive months.
Personally, I think this would all be behind us if Congress hadn't artificially propped up the market from 2009-2010.


  1. Yeah. I totally agree with your comment about this being a result of the propped up market. I said as much back then. Sadly, I don't believe the politicians feel the same way and we can expect more action to prop up markets. Just as soon as they raise the debt ceiling.

  2. I agree about the $8,000 or so write-off but only to a point. 

    There are too many other things that are wrong, namely high unemployment, to bring stability to housing. 

    But I could see an increase in housing construction if builders sense that the declining rates of homeownership will last for a generation, and begin to work on building rental properties. 


  3. And this is for you, Partisan:
    Only the Washington, D.C., and Seattle markets saw month-to-month growth of 1.1% and 0.1%, respectively."Thanks James. 

  4. "When Excluding Distressed Sales", is sort of like
    Excluding Gun Related VIolence in a homicide survey.

  5. This price information is very local like all real estate data.  In my area in Los Angeles prices are down 1.7% year over year.  Excluding distressed properties, prices are down 0.5%.