Growth in Realtors Slowing Dramatically

The number of Realtors has grown dramatically in the past five years during mount. Realtors are members of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Not all real estate agents are Realtors. By a very wide margin the NAR is the largest organization representing real estate brokers in the United States. On September 20th, I asked Is There a Realtor Bubble?

At the end of 2000 the number of Realtors stood at 803,803, by the end of 2005 their ranks had swelled to 1,265,367. In five short year the Realtors had grown by 57.4%.

Now their membership growth is slowing. Their month over month (pdf) national growth was .48% from 1,364,196, to 1,370,758 which represented this smallest percentage growth rate for the month of October since 1999.

For the month of October, the number of Realtors declined in 10 states.

The tremendous growth rate of the Realtors is over. The NAR should expect outright declines in their membership.

Realtors Do Much Harm, Then a Little Good in New Orleans

The Realtors went to New Orleans so they could send a positive message by helping out the recovering city. On their NardiGras blog they highlight all the goodness they bestowed upon New Orleans during their conference. For example, they boast about the "8,364: The number of hours NAR members had spent in volunteer activities through Saturday, November 11."

The goodness that the Realtors accomplished in New Orleans in no ways makes up for all the amount of harm many Realtors have caused during the housing bubble. By cheerleading the bubble and encouraging toxic mortgages many Realtors have done tremendous harm. The foreclosure rate has skyrocketed in many bubble markets due in part to these toxic mortgages. These toxic mortgages were promoted by Realtors and mortgage lenders to many naive homebuyers. The Realtors as a whole should be ashamed of the actions of many of their fellow Realtors and their pathetic leadership (ex. David Lereah) during this bubblicious period.

Bubble Sphere Roundup

Paper Money updates on what he calls the 'Gangsta Broka' who is "a member of the well known south side Chicago gang the “Gangster Disciples”, ran a mortgage fraud scheme that ripped off "unsophisticated" home buyers for hundreds of thousands of dollars." We knew that significantly more fraud was being commited during the bubble years then during non bubble years. Let's not forget Casey Serin, the poster boy for mortgage fraud who blog about his pastfraud at I Am facing Foreclosure Blog.

Patrick.net Photoshop Extravaganza! Don't Miss It!

Do big cash bonuses sell homes? (NJ Report) There is even a downloadble spreadsheet with cash bonus offers from craigslist. Here is one example: "$20,000 BONUS to SELLING AGENT for full price offer!!!!! $10,000 towards the BUYER’S CLOSING Costs"

Pacific Beach Housing Bubble does a tremendous job writing abotu the local market. How about the deluded flipper who has this property.

Purchase price (03/04): $749,000
Asking price: $1,400,000
Expected appreciation: 87% in 20 months

Ya right will you be able to sell it for that price. Keep drinking the financial kool aide!

From Newsweek: David Leareah says "You'd have to go back to the Great Depression to find a housing period that is this unique." Thanks to one reader who found this gem.

The Realtors Attend Nardi Gras

Lereah and his fellow Realtors are at the annual National Assocation of Realtors convention. This year they are down in New Orleans. Last year New Orleans was underwater, this year many homeowners are underwater on thier mortgage.

To cheer up his grumpy Realtors, who pay Mr. Lereah's salary, he offered hope.

"We need a price decline, we were overbloated," particularly on the West Coast, David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told attendees at his organization's annual meeting here on Friday.

"In 2007, it will be a flat year, maybe 1 percent [sales] drop, and that's it," Lereah said. "After 2007, we'll be back to expansion again."

Lereah forecast that 2006 sales will end up about 9 percent lower than in 2005, a record year. He anticipates sales of 6.47 million units, declining to 6.43 million next year. Prices nationwide will be down by about 2 percent, year over year, and will inch up by 1.5 percent in 2007, he said.

New-home sales will decline this year by 16.8 percent, to 1.07 million units, and will sink 8.7 percent further next year, to 975,000, he said.

Lereah said inventory is stabilizing, citing his trade group's data on pending sales--homes that have gone under contract.

"It appears that inventory has peaked," said Lereah, who now estimates a 7.3 month supply of available homes nationwide.

"We were hovering near four to five months' [supply of homes for sale] during the boom, and in some areas, such as Orange County, Calif., we were measuring it in weeks, not months."

But Lereah said the national picture is positive. "I'm optimistic for 74 percent of the country," where local markets are, at worst, flat. The other 26 percent are in for some rough times."

Struggling the most would be California, South Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and metro Washington, D.C., he said, where sellers need to lower their prices.

Mr. Lereah, the discredited chief economist propagandist for the Realtor is still whitewashing the real estate reality.

October 2006 MRIS Numbers

The new monthly numbers for October 2006 are out from the MRIS the multiple listing service for the area. The MRIS numbers continue to show declining prices. The YoY = Year over Year, that is the comparison between October 2006 and October 2005.

These numbers include all housing units, including single family residences (townhouses, houses), condos and co-ops.

Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))

• Median Price: $458K
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: -6.36%
• Average Sales Price YoY: -4.70%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -21%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 144%
  
• Active Listings YoY: 52%
  

Baltimore City Area (Anne Arundel, Baltimore City/County, Carroll, Harford, Howard (BALT AREA) )

• Median Price: $265K
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: 1.92%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 3.15%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -22%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 79%
  
• Active Listings YoY: 64%
  

Washington, DC (just the District of Columbia, no suburbs)

• Median Price: $375k
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: -11.76%
• Average Sales Price YoY: -10.26%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -30%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 103%
  
• Active Listings YoY: 48%

Prince George's County, MD

• Median Price: $335K
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: 6.65%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 7.90%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -24%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 97%
  
• Active Listings YoY: 95%
  

Montgomery County, MD

• Median Price: $432K
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: .70%
• Average Sales Price YoY: 1.91%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 147%
  
• Active Listings YoY: 56.3%
  

Loudoun County, VA

• Median Price: $428K
  
• Median Sales Price YoY: -10.84%
• Average Sales Price YoY:-10.09%
• Total Units Sold YoY: -29%
• Average Days on Market YoY: 152%
• Active Listings YoY: 30.9%
  

For more numbers on jurisdictions not mentioned here please go to MRIS Market Statistics. The housing market in the Washington, DC area is experiencing a significant decline. The above numbers are nominal dollars, looking at real dollars (inflation adjusted) the market looks much weaker. The market will continue to decline as we head into the fall and winter months.

Loudoun County's peak median price of for all housing units sold was a bubblicious 506,100 reached in August of 2005. Now, in October 2006 it has fallen by 78,150 dollars or 15.4%. In real dollars this would be a decline of 18 or 19%. [A small part of this huge price decline are seasonal factors at work where prices in the non prime real estate months are reduced compared to the buying season (spring through late summer)]. In the metropolitan DC area a declining housing market is reality.

Foreclosures Increasing

Bargain Network reports that"According to Bargain Network, an online provider of real estate foreclosure, pre-foreclosure and for-sale-by-owner properties and information, third quarter foreclosure activity has increase across the United States by 14 percent compared to the second quarter this year. The Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Trend Report released yesterday by the company also held that the nation saw a 39 percent increase in foreclosure activity compared to the same quarter last year, and that in the month of September alone, there were 103,000 houses that went into the foreclosure process."

Ad: Stop Foreclosures, We Buy Homes

"While September's foreclosure activity only saw a 10 percent decrease compared to the record breaking month of August, the 51 percent hike from a year ago is alarming. Both September's figures, as well as the third quarter's, showed that the foreclosure rate was one new property for every 1,222 U.S. households."

"The top five states to represent 66 percent of the foreclosure activity were Florida, California, Michigan, Texas, and Colorado."

"Florida's foreclosure rate was four times the national average with one new foreclosure filing for every 254 households. Foreclosures in the Sunshine State totaled 28,000, accounting for 27 percent of the overall nationwide foreclosure activity."

"On the opposite side of the country, California, which ranked second, had 17,000 properties enter into some state of forelcosure, with a new foreclosure rate of 1 filing for every 712 households. Compared to the previous month, the state saw a 37 percent increase and a 44 percent increase from the previous quarter."

"Nearly 9,000 foreclosures were reported entering the foreclosure process in Texas, or 1 foreclosure for every 920 households. Colorado had a total of 7,00 foreclosure filings, or 1 foreclosure for every 266 households."

"Tom Adams, president and CEO of Bargain Network, it's not a surprise that the western states top the charts due to the "predominance of negative amortization loans" where borrowers pay interest-only, without gaining any equity."

Election Day!

Election Day is today. Go Forth and Vote!

Two Houses for Sale in Silver Spring, MD

Two Houses for Sale in Silver Spring, MD

MC6230122 and MC6173603

Realtors Launch Major Ad Campaign

The National Association of Realtors launched a major ad campaign to convince buyers that "It's a Great Time to Buy." Many Realtors are hurting as sales volumes have declined tremendously in the bubble markets. For example, in Los Angeles County, according to DataQuick, sales are down 31 percent compared to September of 2005. In Loudoun County, suburban Washington, DC, the dollar value of property sold has fallen 44% from last September.

"Look for NAR's advertisement during the weekends of November 3-5 and 10-12 in six leading U.S. newspapers: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, USA Today, and Los Angeles Times.

The ad encourages consumers to ignore the negative media coverage on the current housing market and reminds them that the time is right to buy now, for several reasons:

• Interest rates are low
• A good inventory of homes is available
• Prices have stabilized and are starting to rise
• The future of the housing market and the economy is positive
• Housing is a great investment, with average home valuations increasing 88 percent in the last 10 years

The ad closes with a call to action to contact your REALTOR® or visit REALTOR.com.

NAR is publicizing this message to the press through news release, media outreach, and selected television interviews.

In January 2007, NAR will take this message to the airwaves with television and radio commercials."

The National Association of Realtors is interested in thier membership and is not there to give prudent advice to potential homebuyers. Don't be fooled by their soft landing talk! In the bubble markets this will be a hard landing!

Update: Check out this spoof of the Realtors' Ad and also Big Picture's Excellent Analysis of the Ad.

Bubble Sphere Roundup

Housing Panic Blog hits 2 million hits! Congratulations! Keith is one prolific and opinionated blogger! Keep up the excellent work. :-) If you are ever in Washington, DC I'll certainly buy you a beer!

More and more toxic mortgages are resetting. Responsible are those uninformed and/or greedy borrowers abetted and encouraged by irresponsible mortgage brokers. To track this growing mess there is Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking.

Lots of links to Bubblicious Articles @ Southern Maryland Housing Bubble News!

3Q GDP Report (Paper Money)
Sex Sells Condos (Housing.com Blog)

A large congratulations for the NJ RE Report receives major publicity in the Star Ledger. Helping to spread the truth about the housing market!