Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Various Items

I'm back in the Washington, DC area. My trip was amazing. I'm glad to be back and blog posts will be much more frequent.

Go to Virginia MLS to check current inventory levels for Northern Virginia. Listings are
  • Available: 12677
  • Total Listings: 15875

Since the beginning of the year the total listings have slightly increased from 15,530 to today's 15,875 listings.

"ForeclosuresMass.com, which reports monthly on the foreclosure filings in the state's Land Court, said filings increased nearly 70 percent from 2005, and that the pace accelerated at the end of last year. In the final quarter of last year, there were twice as many filings -- 6,525 -- as in the same period in 2005." (Boston Globe)

The Metropolitan Regional Information Systems MRIS will be releasing its yearly numbers soon.

Mid-February is when MRIS releases Year End Statistical Reports on mris.com. The release date is based on the February first deadline for agents to submit their comparable data for production awards purposes. The MRIS Statistics Group then leaves itself two weeks in which to thoroughly review and cleanse the data, ensuring you accurate results.

Bubble Meter will be reporting and analyzing this data once it is available.

27 comments:

  1. "Since the beginning of the year the total listings have slightly increased from 15,530 to today's 15,875 listings."

    you mean they peaked and then plummeted to where there's virtually no increase year over year?

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  2. Anonymous said...
    “You mean they peaked and then plummeted to where there's virtually no increase year over year?”

    Jan 07-15530
    Jan 06-11904

    So anon, a 30%+ YOY increase in inventory, during the “off” season no less, is not significant?

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  3. you mean they peaked and then plummeted to where there's virtually no increase year over year?

    No dimwit, that's not what he said. If you look at the site he referenced, Virginia MLS, you will see that as of Jan 1, 2006 there were 11904 listings, compared to 15,530 on Jan 1, 2007. That's a 30% increase. Moron.

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  4. Hey morons:

    "Since the beginning of the year the total listings have slightly increased from 15,530 to today's 15,875 listings."

    Nice inventory surge, morons.

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  5. Wow - if inventory is up that much in NoVa it must be down significantly in Maryland and/or DC because there's very little change year over year now.

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  6. The surge from Jan 07 to Feb 07 is only 350 listings, but add the 3500 from the previous year. It's still going up, that's the point. Not decreasing. More houses going up for sale. Fewer being purchased.

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  7. I've been watching this site for a while:
    http://askmerv.choice3realty.com/cat_loudoun_daily_market_watch.html
    This fellow seem to be good about presenting a range of statistics about the market in Northern Virginia. Not a big total increase of listings in the Virginia MLS from January to February, but there seems to be a definite surge in new listings over the last month.

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  8. "The surge from Jan 07 to Feb 07 is only 350 listings, but add the 3500 from the previous year. It's still going up, that's the point. Not decreasing. More houses going up for sale. Fewer being purchased. "

    Maybe in NoVa over a one month period, but the trend is down across the region.

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  9. Although the Virginia MLS only shows a jump of about 300 listings over the last month, looking at specific areas in Northern Virginia can be interesting. This fellow is good at compiling data specific to Fairfax and Loudoun (Loudoun charts follow) :

    http://askmerv.choice3realty.com/cat_loudoun_daily_market_watch.html

    Total active listings over the last month haven't increased much, but there appears to be a definite surge in new listings ...

    (Sorry if this is a duplicate ...)

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  10. You are right, I apologize, inventory is still climbing.

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  11. Here is a link to an ariticle showing the condos being built in downtown Rockville, MD are not selling. http://gazette.net/stories/020707/rocknew221734_32320.shtml.

    Can you Say "rockville mall 2".

    Also the article says that the grocery store space is not yet rented. Often rents for the smaller stores are conditional on getting a larger anchor, so if an anchor is not found, then rents will be less or may be cancelled without penanties. Though the article says that most of the store fronts are rented, the biggest piece, and the anchor is not rented. Also sounds like the old Rockville mall that could not get an anchor.

    What they don't also mention is that with the advent of the internet, the need for a public library is less, therefore the library will be a smaller draw for patrons than expected.

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  12. Annonymous 4:53 doesn't seem bright enough to realize that the beginning of the year was a month ago. That's a 2.22% increase in a month. Multiply that by 12 to estimate the annualized rate.

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  13. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aA90FVv3DDrY&refer=home

    `Dried Up'
    -Louis Genuario Jr., a regional builder in Alexandria, Virginia, said speculators may have made up about 40 percent of housing customers. In some new condominium complexes in suburban Washington, every buyer was a speculator, Genuario said.-

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  14. james said...
    "Annonymous 4:53 doesn't seem bright enough to realize that the beginning of the year was a month ago. That's a 2.22% increase in a month. Multiply that by 12 to estimate the annualized rate."

    It sounds like YOU are not smart enough to know how to annualize a rate. A 2.22% increase in a month equals a 2.22% annualized rate since the object of annualizing a rate is to determine what it would be for the year if the rate remained the same for the remaining months of the years. No wonder you can't see the mistake you've made renting vs. buying. You don't know math!

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  15. Anon 5:53:
    "What they don't also mention is that with the advent of the internet, the need for a public library is less, therefore the library will be a smaller draw for patrons than expected."

    While it's true that libraries are no longer needed for their original purpose, they today serve as de facto daytime shelters for the homeless. A fact that BHs should be very grateful for as rents escalate ... and they find they've been left behind since they didn't "buy now"!

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  16. OK, one major premise of this blog is "Economic Gloom is Near".

    As we head into the bottom half of the first quarter of the year; what is the status of the pre-saged Gloomishness? I seem to recall many statements indicating that the national economy would be tattered (but not torn) this year.

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  17. mea culpa James ... re-reading your calcs, you are correct since the first rate is not annualized. I made my error because I often hear people quoting govt percentages for a quarter and then trying to multiply by 4 to get the annual figure ... And THAT is incorrect because quarterly numbers are supposed to have already been "annualized".

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  18. " A fact that BHs should be very grateful for as rents escalate ... and they find they've been left behind since they didn't "buy now"! "

    Yes, I feel so left behind because I saved thousands of dollars which I have in various high-return investments, and because I didn't buy at the peak of a bubble and lose tens of thousands of dollars. Now, even as rents rise, I'm still saving money (but a little less), but now I also have an ever expanding choice of places to choose from at falling prices. Poor poor me.

    Cross index ZipRealty with assessment records from the web and find the people begging you to buy their condos so they can losing "only" $50,000. Then think about how those are the people who listened to Lance and not to David in 05. And be glad you're too smart to listen to Lance.

    Then, go out, look around and see if there are some deals popping up. And keep your eyes on the rents and the inventory numbers because they will tell the tale about what type of year 2007 will be.

    ReplyDelete
  19. "Since the beginning of the year the total listings have slightly increased from 15,530 to today's 15,875 listings."

    Nice inventory surge, morons.


    Hello! It's the middle of the fucking winter. Inventory never surges in the winter. The surge comes in the spring. It's not spring yet. Go back to sleep. But it is up 30% YOY.

    ReplyDelete
  20. mea culpa James ... re-reading your calcs, you are correct since the first rate is not annualized. I made my error because I often hear people quoting govt percentages for a quarter and then trying to multiply by 4 to get the annual figure ... And THAT is incorrect because quarterly numbers are supposed to have already been "annualized".

    Does Lance ever think about what he's saying before he posts it? I don't think so. Not only does Lance spew mindless drivel without thought, he also does not understand simple math.

    ReplyDelete
  21. lance said...
    "mea culpa James ... re-reading your calcs, you are correct since the first rate is not annualized."

    No problem, Lance. We all make mistakes... although we don't all catch our own mistakes. You get extra points for that.

    I should point out that because 345 is such a low absolute number, and because of the seasonality of the real estate market, multiplying the 2.22% by 12 will result in a very inaccurate estimate of the annualized rate. It should only be thought of as a rule of thumb.

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  22. U.S. stocks close lower as HSBC warns on lending

    "It has been very unusual in recent years for a major bank to issue a profit warning, especially related to deteriorating credit quality, so this announcement will generate plenty of headlines," said Simon Adamson, a banking analyst at CreditSights, in a note.
    HSBC's warning put pressure on other financial services companies' stocks and could also restart the debate as to whether a cooling housing market's woes will spill over into the broader economy.
    Declining wealth from home values threatens to hit consumption. And "the quality of job creation is poor, replacing manufacturing jobs with service jobs, which is not creating a big enhancement to consumer demand," said Robert Smith, director of portfolio strategy at Smith Affiliated Capital.

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  23. A 2.22% increase in a month equals a 2.22% annualized rate since the object of annualizing a rate is to determine what it would be for the year if the rate remained the same for the remaining months of the years.

    Lance is not real. No real person is this dumb.

    Guys, seriously it is not worth debating points made by Lance. Why waste your time? I would just ignore his comments because in most likelihood they are made by a prankster having fun.

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  24. Here's a great article about the growing problems associated with the sub-prime market (e.g., HSBC and New Century):

    http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/newsanalysis/investing/10337747.html

    Two of the three largest subpirme lenders are now admitting that their risk models are flawed. Credit is tightening; the marginal buyers will no longer be part of the demand side of the housing market. And given the rate at which recent subprime loans are deteriorating, recent buyers may be forced to become sellers (or subject to foreclosure), thereby adding to the supply side of the housing market. New England, Florida, Arizona, and parts of CA are toast for sure. The remaining X factors for the DC area are: (1) have prices in this area been propped up by subprime borrowers such that their departure from the market will affect prices this year?; and (2) can employment and wages sustain current prices? There is already a compelling argument that construction layoffs are imminent:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/many-layoffs-coming-housing-economists/story.aspx?guid=%7B102B585B%2D9CC4%2D49B5%2D954B%2D5706815027D7%7D

    This does not look good for housing bulls. We shall have our answer by May-June.

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  25. OK now, point out the Gloom, please. You said it would be here by mid-year. Where is it?

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  26. "Two of the three largest subpirme lenders are now admitting that their risk models are flawed. Credit is tightening; the marginal buyers will no longer be part of the demand side of the housing market. And given the rate at which recent subprime loans are deteriorating, recent buyers may be forced to become sellers (or subject to foreclosure), thereby adding to the supply side of the housing market."

    It was just a couple weeks ago that Lance was telling us all how new models allow lenders to only lend to buyers with credit on par with nation states and kings!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hey there,
    Let me know when this data comes out. As a Realtor, I can show you the insider's perspective on how they fudge the numbers such as how they leave off seller subsidies when running the numbers. Something that has gone from 0% to 2% in 2 years.

    I wrote a long blog on it (hope you dont mind the link):
    MRIS data, Average Sold/List Ratio: 98.6% or 92.2%?

    Frank Borges LL0SA- Virginia Realtor/ Broker

    BLOG.FranklyRealty.com
    Featured in WSJ, BusinessWeek and NY Times

    ReplyDelete