Tuesday, March 27, 2007

BubbleSphere Roundup

The US Census Bureau's new home sales number came out yesterday and they were ugly. In the main the housing news continues to support the conclusion that the housing market is still declining. Heck, we are less then two years from peak in most bubble markets. The housing market will continue to decline in most bubble markets for at least a couple of years.

A big welcome back to Marinite who operates the Marin Real Estate Bubble Blog. He stopped blogging after someone threatened him with an email saying "I swear if I ever find you your dead." It is a quality housing bubble blog that deserves recognition. Welcome back pal. :-)

There is a new Washington, DC area housing bubble blog called Greater Northern VA Housing Bubble Fallout. It is wonderful to have additional local bloggers in the Washington - Baltimore area. The blogger tacks foreclosures in Virginia. Happy Blogging!

And finally in Bakersfield, CA which is very bubblicious. Solid blog!

15 comments:

  1. David,

    Whats your take on homes in Charles county down near La Plata? Especially around CSM? Offer less than puyrchase price from 2004? These are older established hoods, think they will drop a bit but in long haul will actually increase due to prop0erty decreases in Waldorf area. And as a current homebuyer i can tell all, there is no more 100% jumbos regardless of credit, no 80/20 regadless of credit...must have 10-20% down regardless and dependant on score. click on realtyTrac and look at the FC pins I was suprised to see the cheaper houses of Westlake with so many in FC. I expected the pins north on 228 but come on westlake homes have been upper 300's since 04 and now FC's??? Means these loans were subprime on credit and not non corming based on balance, tho9se will come in 08 with resets in the newer subdivisions.

    Anyway found 3 houses we liked part of me wants to offer ,but part wants to hold on till may/june and see how the spring goes. But as long as the homes are being advertised greater than 417 I am not worried about a quick sale because I know noone that has 42K to put down.

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  2. The Case-Shiller index is down nationally for the month of January, but also down 3.9% for Washington, YoY:

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/032707_homeprice.pdf

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  3. Lennar 1Q Profit Slides 73 Pct on Continued Housing Softness; Outlook Is Lower and Stock Slips

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070327/earns_lennar.html?.v=4

    "While some markets are performing better than others, the typically stronger spring selling season has not yet materialized," said Stuart Miller, Lennar's president and chief executive.

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  4. RE: the foreclosure blog

    Don't get too excited kids, unless you want to live in Gainesville or Warrenton. The only one I found interesting - Market Street at Reston Town Center - has over twelve contracts submitted so far.

    Remember, as you guys always say, it's not the asking price but the sold price. Can you say "escalation clause"?

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  5. Hey lance, don't forget to show us the data on those "average rowhouses" that have gone from $1 million to $2 million in the last 12 months that you toured last weekend.

    We are all interested in reading about these amazing price increases you have discovered.

    thanks in advance

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  6. Housing Bubble Quote of the Day:

    "The annual declines in the composites are a good indicator of the dire state of the U.S. residential real-estate market," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, in a news release. "The dismal growth in the 10-city composite is now at rates not seen since January 1994."

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  7. Campers,

    Here is todays update for the "Lance knows Better" Blog. When asked if it is a good time to buy residential real estate Richard Russel relpies as follows:

    ""Bids are drying up. Many potential buyers are simply waiting for lower prices. The word is that 'it pays to wait.'"

    Thus Richard Russell on the impending end of the housing bubble.

    Notice the words "End of the housing Bubble" and "It pays to wait".

    But then once again, Lance knows better! LOL

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  8. the time to buy a house will be when Lance and VA_investor say "now is not a time to buy"

    :lol:

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  9. Interesting.

    Found this at the craigslist forum:

    Guess what Skinny? < formerwinner > 03/27 10:32:13

    There are over 12 contracts on that Market Street 49% off deal. What do you think it will escalate to? Remember, as you guys always say, asking price is not sold price.

    http://forums.washingtondc.craigslist.org/?ID=60578595

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  10. ""Bids are drying up. Many potential buyers are simply waiting for lower prices. The word is that 'it pays to wait.'"

    Interesting that's hitting the MSM. Last week, the mood changed at work. Its as if a switch was flipped. All of the sudden anyone who was considering buying suddenly decided to take a little break.

    Is it the credit tightening? I heard in the 90's that it was over a two week period that buyers just stopped shopping. (My parent's neighborhood dropped 40% in 3 years in sales prices. 18% for the county.) Are we close to that?

    Maybe not. As Keynes observed, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

    I'm still trying to figure out how this became national. I'm used to California shooting up and then dipping every 15 years...

    Got popcorn?
    Neil

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  11. Hey Skinny!

    Nice to see you lurking about! Come out and show yourself. Tell all the good people about your day-trade to the fireman. How's that workin' out for ya? Come on, please come out Anon 2:49. The weather is fine.

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  12. The enormous inflation in home prices between 2002 and 2005, is to blame for the housing crash. It was

    the price, stupid!

    The fuel for the astronomical home price inflation was the easy credit. As prices got higher, Toxic loans

    were invented, to compensate for the higher prices, while credit was still easy, which drove prices even

    higher.

    In the end, easy credit and exotic loans could not justify the inflated home prices, no matter what the

    interest rate or loan type. In the end, it was the price, stupid.

    Why does the MSM avoid like the plague, talking about the inflated prices of homes, which is the root

    cause of the housing crash?

    How about an extended discussion on the blogs about the actual high home prices, which triggered this

    crash? If the blog discussions focus on price, the MSM will eventually pick it up.

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  13. Someone tell me - just how telling is it that there are foreclosure prices around 20% below the comps? I can see both sides. On the one hand, they're outliers. On the other, the banks know what it'll take to unload the house and that does help set the market.

    Thoughts?

    -kevin

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  14. wannabuy said...
    I'm still trying to figure out how this became national. I'm used to California shooting up and then dipping every 15 years...

    Neil-- interesting question. I think the answer is it became national when lending became national. Used to be that you got your housing loan from your local S&L or bank. And, of course, they kept the loan, so they had every incentive to make sure you really could pay.

    I used to be able to just drop by my local branch to make my house payment, years ago in SoCal. Fast forward 25 years to NoVA and Union Bank, who gave us our loan, didn't even keep it a year before selling it to some Florida outfit. None of the subsequent owners were any damn good at managing the escrow account, either, so not only did they raise the payment a couple hundred a month every time the loan changed hands, but they were constantly late on the tax payments. I should have taken them to court to make them pay the penalties, but it was just too much hassle.

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