Monday, December 31, 2007

BubbleSphere Roundup

DataQuick: Sacramento's Median Home Price Falls 18.3% in one year (Sacramento Landing)

Keith at HousingPanic reports about a Realtor whose recently property is declining fast. This same Realtor wrote in May 2006 that "I see an awful lot written about the real estate "bubble" bursting, but I've yet to see evidence of this happening in Phoenix."

Everyone is buying 'a year from now.' (RECOMMENTS) from Neil the Got Popcorn guy?

The Foreclosures Dog
(Real Estate Bloggers)

Happy New Year! :-)


  1. David,

    Happy new year! May you and yours have a great 2008.

    Got popcorn?

  2. More evidence of a bubble, from the Washington Post:

    "Another old landmark is to disappear soon through the change of ownership of the square bounded by R, Third and Fourth streets, and Florida avenue northwest, and long known as the Glorious property. The land has been occupied as a garden, and by a greenhouse, and a residence, which will be removed to make way for a block of twenty-seven two story dwellings, to be erected by Harry Wardman, who will put them upon the market, Each dwelling will consist of two flats of five rooms and a bath, and be strictly up to date in all features. They will be of press brick.
    Work on the structures will begin about October 1, They are intended to be ready for occupancy April 1. Mr. Wardman has just completed, at New Jersey avenue and R street northwest, five two story flat dwellings of the same character as those described above. All these were sold, before being finished. At Thirteenth street and Whitney avenue, Mr. Wardman is erecting five three-story modern press brick and stone front dwellings to be finished November 1. These are to be provided with hot-water heating appliances, and all other conveniences. Another ..."
    -Washington Post, September 21, 1902 p. 16

    There you go, another developer taking over greenspace throwing up a bunch of cookie-cutter townhouses (of the same character) on the edges of the city and out in the suburban parts of the District*. So in seven months time he's supposed to tear down a landmark, and quickly construct 27 whole townhouses in move in condition?
    And Modern?! Phewy, what's wrong with the lovely and modest Federalist style that is the charming character of the city. Wardman want to build these huge monstrosities that dwarf the humble classic styled houses. Modern, well I don't care for this modernism, not one bit. And two flats? Obviously, these are meant for greedy investors as what appears on the outside to be a single home is nothing but a mini-apartment complex or flop house.
    But let us return to what we will lose in all of this, flowers, beautiful locally grown flowers. It is sad that none of the Glorious children have chosen to take up their father's passion to continue the family business, but I guess this is all what people call progress. [/sarcasm]

    *Near the turn of the century, a lot of what was above Florida Avenue (then Boundary Avenue) was farmland and the sub-urban part of the District.

  3. Hey Everyone,

    I just wanted to give everyone a real estate tip for the new year. There is a new international real estate website called You can advertise your properties/listings for sale or rent for Free. There are already properties posted from 45 countries. You can advertise your real estate realted services for free: agents, brokers, mortgage, insurance, painters, etc.

    You can communicate with potential buyers and other real estate related people via chat, message, email, etc. You can even make and receive offers electronically.

    Andy Weitnauer

  4. NAR survey predicts 5.7 million sales in 2008 versus an estimated 5.65 million in 2007.

    Not exactly the volume required for a recovery.

    The non-salesmen are predicting sales volume drops in the 14% to 22% range. Although the Wamu executive was more bearish, I think that statement was more to justify closing more of their wholesale division.

    NAR's prediction for 2007 (in January 2007). 6.40 million
    actual: ~5.65 million.

    I'm thinking with the state of the current CMBS bond market, they're being too optimistic for 2008. I estimate sales will drop 20% based on increased down payment requirements. By 2009 we'll be back to a normal mortgage market.

    Got popcorn?

  5. David,

    Hattip CR, pending (signed but not closed sales) home sales are down 19.2% YOY.

    I think your price drop prediction is 'in the bag.'

    Got popcorn?

  6. All these ugly cheap new buildings need to be stopped. It is way past talking time. It is action time. It is time to sue the builders.....

  7. In Prince William, one of the areas hit hardest by foreclosures and stagnant sales, assessments for existing homes will decline by 14 to 16 percent this year, depending on the type of property, according to Allison Lindner, the county's real estate assessment chief. The reduced number of sales in 2007 has made this year's assessments a challenge, she said.

    Although nearby foreclosures make it harder to sell your home at a reasonable price, they may not pull down your property assessment. Lindner said foreclosure prices don't reflect market value because they are not normal, arm's-length transactions.

    "We don't put a lot of emphasis on foreclosure sales, and hopefully we will have enough non-foreclosure sales so that it's not an issue," Lindner said. "We are going to have neighborhoods where all we have are foreclosures or no sales at all. In that case, we will try to go to a similar neighborhood and establish market value."