Talk of a pending recession spurred by a housing slump is greatly exaggerated by national media and could spur a self-fulfilling prophecy as the negative news is emphasized, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told local real estate agents today.“Paraphrasing Franklin Delano Roosevelt, what I fear is fear itself,” Lawrence Yun said at the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors 2008 Real Estate Trends and Issues luncheon today at the Hyatt Regency Hotel.
Yun told the audience that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession as housing prices fall and foreclosure rates rise.“If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they’ll get the information they want,” he said.
Mr. Yun has not yet reached the level absurdity of the infamous David Lereah, but he is sure heading in that direction. Yun has been discredited for his paid spining and his ridiculous predictions.
Lawrence Yun should be fired because he has lost his credibility. The NAR should get out of the business of making predictions about the housing market as they have been so wrong, often.
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Yun twists the truth like a pretzel, the Tresury Secretary admits indirectly that the latest housing bailout is unlikely to succeed.
ReplyDeleteHere is Paulson's comments on the effort to save home owners facing foreclosure...
http://www.treas.gov
/press
/releases
/hp820.htm
Fifth Paragraph
"Of course, there will be homeowners who still take no action, and some will simply walk away from their mortgage – particularly those borrowers who put little or no money down and whose mortgage exceeds their home value."
There you have it, Paulson admits not everyone will be helped with this latest scheme, but those "whose mortgage exceeds their home value" will end up waliking away from their money pits. Why should they refinance (or better yet, HOW CAN THEY refinance) if they are upside down on their mortgage?
"Yun told the audience that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews...."
ReplyDelete"Cherry picking" must mean choosing to interview any expert outside the REIC.
"Why should they refinance (or better yet, HOW CAN THEY refinance) if they are upside down on their mortgage?
Why: Due to lack of depravity (when applicable).
How: Almost all that the government has been doing lately is coming up with ways to give people who shouldn't have bought homes money to keep them.
anon asked:
ReplyDelete"(or better yet, HOW CAN THEY refinance) if they are upside down on their mortgage?"
So, you're assuming that every single one of those relatively rare people who are "upside down on their mortgage" also have no other savings/equity?
The BH theory appeals to those who really couldn't afford to buy during the last boom because it relies on their believing that everyone is in the same financial circumstances they are in. In so doing, rather than inspiring them to just do better for themselves, it just gives them an out by allowing them to blame "the governement", "the banks", "the realtors", "the world", "whatever" for their circumstances. And the hope provided of course is that without any effort on their part, their circumstances will magically change once the bad guys get their due.
Sounds like a fairy tale to me.
What I find ironic is that Yun is accusing the media of that very thing he and the NAR have been doing of late.
ReplyDeleteLance's quotes:
ReplyDelete"So, you're assuming that every single one of those relatively rare people who are "upside down on their mortgage" also have no other savings/equity?"
I assume nothing Lance, I merely point out what Secretary Paulson said in his speech, in his own words, not mine.
Also, if you are interested, you can check out the story from NPR,
"...over 2.9 million homes have foreclosed in the last three years"
and this from the same story, "One thing that is certain: Foreclosures are on the rise. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that roughly 900,000 Americans were in the foreclosure process as of Sept. 30, 2007 — the most recent data available. That's an increase of 72 percent from the same period a year ago."
http://www.npr.org
/templates
/story
/story.php?storyId
=18958049
2.9 million foreclosures in three years makes for more than "those relatively rare people who are "upside down on their mortgage"
Now the walkers have their own website to get assistance if they choose to walk.
http://www.youwalkaway.com/
Looks like the only fairy tale left to tell is from Yun and the NAR.
From Lance:
ReplyDelete"So, you're assuming that every single one of those relatively rare people who are "upside down on their mortgage" also have no other savings/equity?"
http://www.usatoday.com
/money
/autos
/2008-02-13-
repo-man_N.htm
Repo lots overflow with reclaimed cars
...While the nation has been transfixed by rising home foreclosures, scant attention has been paid to what is usually a consumer's second-largest purchase: their car or truck.
Wells Fargo, (WFC) for example, reported last month that it charged off $1 billion in auto loans last year, 3.5% of its portfolio, compared with $857 million in 2006. The bank says it expects a higher write-off rate this year....
....The repo surge has boosted business for locksmith Amy Palmer. She makes new keys for seized vehicles at Manheim's auction lot in Ocoee, Fla., one of Manheim's 144 locations in 14 countries.
"It's phenomenal," she says. "If you're not paying for your house, who is paying for the car?"
Now if the borrowers had savings/equity available to them they would be paying their loans and keeping their houses and cars, not losing them to the banks.
From Lance
ReplyDelete"So, you're assuming that every single one of those relatively rare people who are "upside down on their mortgage" also have no other savings/equity?"
http://www1.pressdemocrat
.com/article
/20080217
/NEWS/
802170357
/1036/BUSINESS01
A boom in bankruptcies
..."Instead of fighting for their homes, however, most didn't even bother. In case after case, homeowners simply let lenders begin foreclosing on homes that are now worth less than the mortgages owed on them.
So instead of an arduous morning filled with adversarial hearings, most cases flew by.
"I've never seen anything like this before," Jaroslovsky said before the hearing. "I've never seen so many people care so little about losing their homes."
In previous periods of economic hardship, homeowners typically fought like hell to save their homes, Jaroslovsky said. They asked for more time, proposed repayment schedules and tried anything they could think of to hold onto their properties.
Today, however, it's a very different story. Bankruptcy courts are seeing a sharp increase in cases filed by homeowners unable to make payments on houses whose values are plummeting.
"What you're seeing is the fallout from the mortgage crisis," said David Chandler, a bankruptcy attorney in Santa Rosa. "In case after case after case, there's just no hope."
...Many homeowners put basic living expenses on their credit cards as they funneled everything they had into escalating mortgage payments, Provencher said. Now that the holidays have passed, credit card companies are putting the squeeze to people, raising rates and lowering credit limits.
"People have been living off the equity in their houses and their credit cards. Now, both of those things are ending," Provencher said. "It's going to create an interesting problem."
So people are turning to the courts, but not to help them keep their homes. They're hoping the courts can protect them from the other land mines waiting for them after their house is gone.
Yeah...it's the media....that's why HOV, BZH, PHM, etc are down ~75% off the highs...it's those stupid fund managers who buy and sell stocks based on what the media tells them...hahahaha....right.
ReplyDelete