National house prices: -15.4% YoY
National house prices: -2.33% QoQ
Boston: -5.2% YoY
Boston: +1.23 MoM
Chicago: -9.5% YoY
Chicago: +2.00% MoM
Denver: -4.67% YoY
Denver: +1.48% MoM
Las Vegas: -28.6% YoY
Las Vegas: -1.57% MoM
Los Angeles: -25.3% YoY
Los Angeles: -1.44% MoM
Miami: -28.3% YoY
Miami: -1.72% MoM
New York Metro: -7.29% YoY
New York Metro: +1.60% MoM
Phoenix: -27.9% YoY
Phoenix: -2.63% MoM
San Diego: -24.2% YoY
San Diego: -1.49% MoM
San Francisco: -23.7 YoY
San Francisco: -1.76 MoM
Tampa: -20.1 YoY
Tampa: -1.15 MoM
Washington, DC: -15.7% YoY
Washington, DC: -0.93% MoM
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Who is ready to call bottom? Anyone?
ReplyDeleteYawn.
ReplyDeleteYawn is right - 15.7% down in DC and no noticeable difference where I want to buy. Apparently the crappy areas and exurbs are getting completely hosed - WHO CARES!!!!
ReplyDeleteAnd before anyone tells me "wait" or "its just getting started" or whatever, please, just spare me. The bubble has been bursting for over 3 years now - if it hasnt hit Logan Circle, by now it aint gonna. Its over people!
What really pisses me of is I fell for this whole bubble nonsense hook line and sinker. I was told people really arent wealthy and that all the phonies with their junk loans will get paraded around in frog marches and exposed for what they are.
In the mean time, I have spent over $108,000 in rent in the last 5 years, and not a single frog march. I WANTEED TO SEE FROG MARCHES. WHERE ARE MY FROG MARCHES!!!
"The bubble has been bursting for over 3 years now - if it hasnt hit Logan Circle, by now it aint gonna. Its over people!"
ReplyDeleteYou are a joke.
You have no concept of how long it takes a financial fuck up of this size to unwind.
Try 9 years buddy, and it has just really started...none of this "been going on for three years" nonsense.
It has been going on elsewhere for that long, but DC was late to the game.
I don't disagree that you won't want to wait that long.
I wouldn't.
"Try 9 years buddy, and it has just really started"
ReplyDeleteBlah blah blah. I think I know you - you are the guy who told me not to buy back in 03.
"Blah blah blah. I think I know you - you are the guy who told me not to buy back in 03."
ReplyDeleteDon't think so.
I have owned for a long time.
I don't tell people what they should or shouldn't do.
Down %15 percent in West Virginia, which is included in the Washington DC Case Shiller index.
ReplyDeleteBut in down in Logan Circle, Penn Quarter, or just about anywhere in Washington DC itself? No.
"Down %15 percent in West Virginia, which is included in the Washington DC Case Shiller index.
ReplyDeleteBut in down in Logan Circle, Penn Quarter, or just about anywhere in Washington DC itself? No."
Exactly, and therein lies the problem. Back in 03 people were saying "DC is in a bubble", "DC is in a bubble"!!!! I took that to mean the whole damn area - and I think they did too.
What they should have said was "DC crappy locations and exurbs are in a bubble" "DC crappy locations and exurbs are in a bubble"!!!
Ive lived in Japan for 4 years, and in DC for only 3.
ReplyDeleteI can tell you this, Japan is the second largest economy, right behind uncle sam. I can also tell you this as well, real estate dropped for 15 years straight in Japan.
I dont see the average $60k salary guy in the DC area buying an average $500K+ home with the way banks are hurting any time soon. Ive seen this before in the worlds second largest economy.
In Los Angeles after the late 80's boom, home prices declined for over six years. This bubble is much bigger.
ReplyDeleteBut why stay in the DC area anyway? To my eyes, Florida keeps getting more and more attractive as its home prices fall. Florida homes already cost half the price of DC homes, and they keep getting cheaper.
Well IMHO the bubble IS everywhere, but it deflates from the outside in. By all accounts it takes a year for many sellers to put realistic prices on houses that they're trying to sell in a down market. The prices declines WILL be worst and first in outlying and crappy areas. We're only now seeing the effects of the "subprime meltdown," which disproportionately affected relatively "affordable," neighborhoods. It's only this year that banks are seriously tightening credit to prime and alt-A borrowers. So it wouldn't be until next year until that credit tightening affected more desirable areas.
ReplyDelete"Well IMHO the bubble IS everywhere, but it deflates from the outside in. By all accounts it takes a year for many sellers to put realistic prices on houses that they're trying to sell in a down market."
ReplyDeleteAgreed but inside the beltway stuff is still selling 5-10% price drops and the market responds with a 4-6 month absorbtion rate - goddamn stuff sells - no frog marches needed. Anon, I share your pain, but hey, its still 5-10% off. Just be glad you saw something out of it.
I sold a home (4 floors) in 20009, and we closed on February 14th 2008. House was very clean, but no parking, so I know that affected our price.
ReplyDeleteThat said, we probably experienced a drop over what we could have gotten for it in 2005-6; i'm guessing 10-15%, once you account for the "parking discount".
I listed too high at first, because I did not appreciate the impact of no parking. After all, I use metro all the time so I didn't care. But, buyers now consider parking more important than I did in the early 90s.
There is a real downward pressure on prices, though, and the previous writer is correct. It is going to sellers longer to move downward in clean houses in great neighborhoods.
I had a bidding war of 2 people, but they both started 24% below my list price, and gradually moved up much much closer to my list. Yes, you read that right -- BOTH came in at 24% under.
Buyers now are MUCH MUCH more aggressive. And, they rightly should be in this market. Eventually, I think this will result in downward pressure, particularly since it took me 7 months to sell. I believe zip code 20009 still remains over the average time in inventory, so until that corrects I'd expect some price drop.
Also, my buyers experienced a lot of stress and aggravation getting their loan. (There was no financing contingency as they had the cash, but preferred to finance). So, I witnessed the diffulty in the jumbo loan market on well-qualified buyers.
So, yeah, I think the buyers themselves will, though the low-ball dealing and hard negotiations, push this down a little further. Fortunately, high oil prices will probably do more to keep zipcode 20009 from dropping than anything else!
Actually February was one of the worst times for the market. 5.6 months of inventory back then. Now (june) its down to about 3.6 months. Another reason renters are upset, the stats are getting better - not worse.
ReplyDeleteNah, sales are down too.
ReplyDeletePeople are listening to RE agents who tell them "it will get better" and pulling stuff off the market.
Frickin' laughable.
List now and get what you can, it ain't getting better.
"People are listening to RE agents who tell them "it will get better" and pulling stuff off the market."
ReplyDeleteSorry - its a good theory, but it doesnt work that way. In markets where they are holding out, as soon as the picture improves, the sideline sellers jump in, pusing inventory back up - meaning it never really declines...
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/08/25/existing-home-sales-post-gain-but-so-does-inventory/
That aint happening here. Our inventory is declining. So where are our sellers "pulling stuff off the market"? Answer - they dont exist.
Uh-huh...keep telling yourself that.
ReplyDeleteWhatevah gets you through the day.
"Uh-huh...keep telling yourself that.
ReplyDeleteWhatevah gets you through the day."
Ahhhh denial - its not only the province of sellers!
anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"The prices declines WILL be worst and first in outlying and crappy areas."
If the crappy areas declined first, the DC area would be declining from the inside out. ;-)
"If the crappy areas declined first, the DC area would be declining from the inside out."
ReplyDelete-TRUTH-