Monday, October 27, 2008

Bits bucket for Monday, October 27

Please post your thoughts, links, and MLS/Craigslist finds here.
Posted by at 7:51 AM

5 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 27, 2008 11:14 AM

    An excerpt from an excellent article. A link follows the excerpt.

    "As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: "the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy." That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.
    This means especially oil. I hope you're enjoying the temporarily cheap prices at the gas pumps, because this is purely a function of the compressive deleveraging that is going on right now, as contracts and positions held in energy markets are being dumped by everybody and his uncle to raise cash to meet margin calls. My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead -- not just more expensive, but literally not available. The current falling price of oil has little to do with the real supply and demand fundamentals. It's simply a function of the markets being in near-total disarray. We're running on current inventory, and running it down. In the background, all kinds of peculiar and terrible things are happening. The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is being thrown out of whack. The smaller tanker operations are going bankrupt. The "less-developed" nations are heading back to the 17th-century level of daily life without electricity. The oil exploration and development projects that were planned for hard-to-get oil netting $100-a-barrel minimum -- in places like the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and Central Asia -- are being shelved, which means the world has less of a chance to offset coming depletions in old fields.
    The bottom line of all this is that we in the US could find ourselves in a situation of shortages, hoarding, and rationing. This would pretty much kill off whatever remains of the previous shuck-and-jive economy -- hamburger sales, theme park visits, Nascar weekends -- while it obviates the failures of our suburban living arrangements (and drives the value of housing there closer to zero).
    The new president will have to be Franklin Roosevelt on steroids, with some Mahatma Gandhi and Florence Nightingale thrown in. My pet project of restoring the American passenger railroad system might seem pretty minor in the face of all this, but it's at least a place to start that will accomplish several things: allow people and things to get places without cars and trucks; put many thousands of people to work at many levels doing something of direct, practical value; and be a small step in rebuilding confidence that we are a society capable of accomplishing something."

    http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

    (Security word to post this comment: "gasto")

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousOctober 27, 2008 11:27 AM

    The amazing thing is how absolutely clueless and "Lemming-Like" Amerkians are...watching the "Series" and eagerly awaiting the playoffs with the nouveau InBev-inspired Busch products in their hands, at least their drinking a dam Amerikan Beer! Not! Try Belgium.

    Around here in Northern Virginia I am still surrounded by dyed blond Moms in Massive SUVS ushering the kiddies to soccer, cheerleading, football, dance or karate (your choice). Often at the gas pump while my little 4 banger sedan is quietly filling her 12 gallon tank I lie in the "shadows" of Ford F-Monsters and Humvee H2s. Nothing has apparently changed, NOTHING, despite all the gloom and doom here and even to an extent in the MSM.

    Now, I read of the first real rumblings of real impending disaster, the County GuvMent is in a deep hole and it is getting deeper. What is a self-respecting County Administrator to do what with all the mega-high schools in the pipeline and the still endlessly growing list of new kiddies in the "pipeline". Courtesy of a Republican mantra that went, it is my property, I'll build what I dam want, make as much as I can and shove the friggin costs to the County for all the services. Problem is that the County just milks the people and businesses for their money so in a very real and tangible way I payed for that developer's villa in Cancun. Maybe I need to fly down and pay a visit?

    Oh well, at least their is still beer.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 27, 2008 12:17 PM

    David, I've visited your blog for years; since it was first referenced in the Post Express newspaper.

    You wrote at some point that you predicted "gloom" but not "doom" for the economy. Back then, I disagreed on both counts.

    At this point, it looks like we were both a bit off the mark. We're facing Doom. There will be at least a semi-chaotic re-shuffeling society and the resources upon which it depends.

    2 years, or less, is all the time it will take.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousMarch 07, 2011 12:00 PM

    David, I've visited your blog for years; since it was first referenced in the Post Express newspaper.

    You wrote at some point that you predicted "gloom" but not "doom" for the economy. Back then, I disagreed on both counts.

    At this point, it looks like we were both a bit off the mark. We're facing Doom. There will be at least a semi-chaotic re-shuffeling society and the resources upon which it depends.

    2 years, or less, is all the time it will take.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousMarch 07, 2011 12:00 PM

    An excerpt from an excellent article. A link follows the excerpt.

    "As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: "the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy." That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.
    This means especially oil. I hope you're enjoying the temporarily cheap prices at the gas pumps, because this is purely a function of the compressive deleveraging that is going on right now, as contracts and positions held in energy markets are being dumped by everybody and his uncle to raise cash to meet margin calls. My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead -- not just more expensive, but literally not available. The current falling price of oil has little to do with the real supply and demand fundamentals. It's simply a function of the markets being in near-total disarray. We're running on current inventory, and running it down. In the background, all kinds of peculiar and terrible things are happening. The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is being thrown out of whack. The smaller tanker operations are going bankrupt. The "less-developed" nations are heading back to the 17th-century level of daily life without electricity. The oil exploration and development projects that were planned for hard-to-get oil netting $100-a-barrel minimum -- in places like the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and Central Asia -- are being shelved, which means the world has less of a chance to offset coming depletions in old fields.
    The bottom line of all this is that we in the US could find ourselves in a situation of shortages, hoarding, and rationing. This would pretty much kill off whatever remains of the previous shuck-and-jive economy -- hamburger sales, theme park visits, Nascar weekends -- while it obviates the failures of our suburban living arrangements (and drives the value of housing there closer to zero).
    The new president will have to be Franklin Roosevelt on steroids, with some Mahatma Gandhi and Florence Nightingale thrown in. My pet project of restoring the American passenger railroad system might seem pretty minor in the face of all this, but it's at least a place to start that will accomplish several things: allow people and things to get places without cars and trucks; put many thousands of people to work at many levels doing something of direct, practical value; and be a small step in rebuilding confidence that we are a society capable of accomplishing something."

    http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

    (Security word to post this comment: "gasto")

    ReplyDelete

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